BITCOIN Must Reach $74,000 Or It Will CRASH!

[00:00:00]I have consistently been making the claim on this YouTube channel that although Bitcoin has clearly found support in this region on something like the cost of production indicator and on the general support offered by the $60,000 region, the support is not enough to confirm actual bullishness.

[00:00:17]And so in this video, I will be specifically looking into what needs to happen for Bitcoin to be bullish again.

[00:00:23]Don't worry, I'm going to go further into it than oh, we just need to break above this price range because that ultimately is the case, right? We do need to see a higher high. Bare markets consist of lower highs and lower lows.

[00:00:36]And so, in order to flip a bare market into a bull market, you need to see a higher high. That's true, and that would occur at about $83,000.

[00:00:44]But where would an actual step in the right direction take place? Well, this is where we get into something like the Ichimoku Cloud Baseline, which currently sits at $74,000, which is actually not that far away. Before we dive in, I want to say a few things about the Bitunix exchange. This is a global and non-KYC exchange option that has never had a hack before, never been hacked in over 4 and a half years in the market. It's exceptionally good. It's got low trading fees as well and great liquidity, as you can see here right on the screen.

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[00:01:28]I'm not employed by Bitunix. I reached out to them so that I could talk about them with the referral link. I don't have to say anything in particular. If you use that link, you'll get a 15% trading fee discount. It's the way to go. All right. It shouldn't be a long video today. Uh let's just highlight the fact before we even get into the actual topic which is Bitcoin needs to do what Bitcoin needs to reach in order to actually make a step in the right direction. Uh the general thing we've been looking at over the last few videos is the fact that Bitcoin has support as given by the cost of production indicator which is in purple. This indicator measures how much money it takes to mine a Bitcoin. And this indicator as you can see is very rarely broken down from. It was broken down from briefly in 2018. It actually wasn't that brief. it was a few months and we went about 30% below it. So, we can certainly lose this indicator to some degree. Uh but it's very unlikely that we would spend massive periods of time below this indicator given how uh historically valuable it's been. But, you know, it is offering support and that support is not a random support.

[00:02:27]It's support right on top of the $60,000 region. And this region generally speaking has been holding for about 170 days now, which is quite uh long for a typical bare market. Generally the consolidations of bare markets don't last that long. Our first consolidation of the bare market right here lasted about 80 days. This is about double the length. Uh and if we look at 2022 we can see that generally speaking you know the longest consolidation of 2022 which is this one right here. This general range that I'm highlighting right now uh did not last 60 days. It lasted about 150 days. So it's not dramatically longer than than what is typical but it certainly is on the longer end and it's the longest consolidation of the last two bull markets combined. So obviously this length of consolidation on this level of major support given by the cost reduction indicator is making a lot of people think wait is this the bottom are we going bullish here I don't think that is the case uh I'll tell you why number one we are still in a cycle we are still in the four-year cycle the 4ear cycle suggests we go downwards until October and the only way we can really get out of that general baseline framework of the 4year cycle is to see something dramatic that proves it otherwise that proves it wrong. And in my view, and I think this is the objective view quite frankly, support is all well and good, but support itself is not evidence of anything actually bullish happening. You need to actually see something bullish happening for something bullish to happen. I know that sounds silly, but it's really worth emphasizing this. You need to see a bounce to become bullish.

[00:03:57]You can't just get bullish when you have a theory about a support zone potentially leading to a bounce. you needed to actually see it materialize, especially when uh the the contrasting view is something as major as Bitcoin's 4year cycle. Like literally the epitome of all trends, like the umbrella trend that has encompassed every single Bitcoin trend that's ever existed here, which is the four-year cycle, is saying we continue to go down. Uh to disprove that, you need something a little bit more convincing than, oh wow, this is pretty major support and we've consolidated for 20 days longer than usual. That's not convincing enough of an argument. So what needs to happen for Bitcoin to actually take a step in the right direction. Well, of course it needs to bounce. Okay. Uh and you know we can look into the probability of it bouncing. We can look into for example on the hourly chart uh we do actually have if we want to spend a little bit of time here on the short term we do have a descending channel formation. This is typically a bullish structure but it's a little bit more complicated than that.

[00:04:50]Unfortunately within this p uh this channel formation we had a triangle.

[00:04:55]I'll make this yellow so you can see it.

[00:04:56]A bullish pennant formation. This was kind of our opportunity to flip really really bullish. Uh it did kind of fail.

[00:05:03]Look, we got above the triangle. The triangle itself is still acting as support on occasion even after we flipped back into it and it kind of failed. Uh the problem is the shortterm is really messy right now. Yeah, the broader structure is a channel and that's great and that's generally bullish. But again, there's the the pennent formation. It broke to the upside. It led to a rejection from the top of the channel and it ultimately failed. Uh, and you could even view this validly, by the way, because you need three retests on one side and two retests in the other to have a valid pattern. You could even view this pattern now as a short-term ascending channel, which would indicate that the entire descending channel uh is is kind of a fraudulent one, right? One that's going to break to the downside. Uh, and this is kind of a big fake out. Uh, further complicating this short-term analysis is the important levels. All right, there's an important level right here. I'll make it pink so you can see it around 64.4. $4,000. Uh, and if we zoom in, you can see the retest from this 64k level over time. I don't even need to really circle it. Just look at the screen here. Look at the interactions with this 64k level.

[00:06:00]Absolutely uh strict and stringent and very sharp interactions with this level from upside and downside. We're currently testing it from the upside right now. Uh, you know, after rejecting from it on two occasions, we've come up, we flipped it for support, now we're attacking the top of the channel again.

[00:06:15]So, either way, I I think the short term is a mess. an absolute buddy mess to be frank. Uh but I think that something will happen here very soon because we have a sharp um apex I guess you can say between the top of the channel uh and that 64k level. So something's going to need to happen here whether it be up or down. And furthermore, if we zoom out to the daily chart and we bring up something like the bullinger bands, we can see intense compression on the bullinger bands. Right? This has been the case for a few weeks now. Uh periods of intense compression leading to kind of results, right? We had intense compression here. here. It led to a downside result. Went to the bottom of the range briefly. Now we've got intense compression again. What's going to happen? Is it going to lead to a bounce upwards or are we going to drop below the range? I guess we'll see within a matter of days most likely. Um this range has proven that you know we can consolidate for longer than we expect all the time. So I'm hesitant to give it an exact deadline. But the fact that there is buller bank compression with the apex and the short-term forming means there is going to be another aggressive move happening very shortly.

[00:07:14]It's just really whether that move is going to be consequential or not that matters or whether it's just going to be another rangebound uh or structure bound move. Right? So, what we'll get into now is what's actually important because I think the short term at the moment is just a bit of a mess. As I said, I'm watching it but I'm not really I'm not caring too much. I want to see a result there and it just seems like we're seeing a lot of results within the pattern but nothing that's actually consequential. What matters here? Well, this is what matters, right? What matters is first of all the downside.

[00:07:42]Okay, something like $60,000, maybe even $58,000. That's the bottom of the range.

[00:07:47]And if we drop below that level, we're going to be moving to the downside more structurally speaking. So, we're going to be, for example, let's clean up this chart a little bit. We're going to be moving to something like 48,000 to $53,000 cuz that is the next support zone. And that's proven by the volume profile. That's proven by visual observation. So, if we lose this range, we're going down to 53 to 48. That's a simple fact. But what about the upside?

[00:08:08]Right? What would be an actual step in the right direction? because we've already gone over the fact that support is not enough. We need an actual proven move. Uh and this is where we can look into indicators. All right. Now, there's a few ways we can go about this. We can look at something like the RSI. We can look at a downwards trend of momentum.

[00:08:23]For example, breaking this line, this that I made in white here would be great. That would be a great momentum indicator breakout. It would be very significant. Doing that in our last bare market is one of the things that actually led to the bull market. So, that was good to see. The problem is we don't have a price point in which that would occur. So, we're looking for indicators that give us a price. We've got a few. We've got the center line of the Gorian channel, which currently sits at $91,000.

[00:08:47]We've got the 100week exponential moving average, which sits at $79,000. We've got the 50week moving average, which sits at around $85,000. But the thing I want to talk about is not any of these indicators, even though all of those indicators are important because all of those indicators are indicators that we never break above in a bare market without flipping into a bull market. But I want to talk about the lowest possible consequential indicator. Right? So the first step in the right direction, what is the indicator that we can get above at at the lowest price possible that is indicative of actual bullishness. And this is the Ikimoku cloud baseline or the Ichimoku cloud baseline rather. Want to get that pronunciation correct. Okay.

[00:09:28]Weekly chart Ichimoku cloud baseline.

[00:09:30]This is an indicator that very rarely getting above it in a bare market very rarely does not lead to a bull market.

[00:09:37]Okay, we have been above it in a bare market before here in 2014. Okay, we have been above it uh in the 2021 bare market very briefly and very in a very small way, right? Again, very briefly.

[00:09:50]Uh we were above it in this bull market.

[00:09:52]Uh that was actually before the breakdown. So, it's kind of doesn't even really count, does it? Right? Uh and you know, we were above it very briefly here, but it was not on a weekly candle close. For the most part, this indicator is the lowest possible indicator. So, in the sense it's the closest to the current price, right? That would be an actual bullish breakout and a bullish step in the right direction. And it currently sits at $74,000. If we got above this indicator, that wouldn't necessarily mean we're in a bull market again and the whole 4ear cycle was broken, but it would be unexpected because we don't generally get above this indicator. Okay? At this phase of the bare market, does not generally happen. So getting above this indicator would be a sign that maybe the bearish argument is weaker than we think and maybe we should start to be a little bit bullish or at least give the bullish argument a lot more consideration. And that sits at $74,000, right? So to get there, what do we need to do? Well, where is $74,000 in this range? It's around here, right? So we need to get to this white line in order for anything actually bullish to have occurred. Until we get there, nothing bullish has happened. This is just support. Thank you for watching. I really hope you enjoyed the video. If you did, leave a like, leave a comment, subscribe. Those things actually genuinely help out the channel. Another thing that genuinely helps out the channel and helps out you in the process is looking at the Bitunix exchange. Okay, take a look. Use my link down below and sign up. You'll get a 15% lifetime trading fee discount. You can save literally thousands of dollars with that discount over the long run. You need a good exchange. Everyone does. You need a secure exchange. You need an exchange that is low in fees. That is what Bitunix is. It's global, nonKYC, never hacked before. All of those things matter a lot. Anyone who knows anything about exchanges knows that to be the case. And a lot of people are on Bit Tunix for that reason. So get on there yourself with that link down below. Get that discount with that link. I appreciate.