bitcoin just hit its MOST IMPORTANT LEVEL this year

本站添加: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Bitcoin is slap bang on the 200 day MA which in history of every bull market I've been in and before has been the top of the dead cat bounce. But can this time be different? Can we spend some time above it? And what am I personally doing? Because as my comments would lead you to believe, I am a perma bear. Even though in this market I am currently long with a profit of $33,000 and I am not closing this position. Now this content is for educational and purposes only. I not a financial adviser. I'm just a guy sitting in this room. This video is based solely on my opinion. What I'm personally doing in this market. I want to let you know that some of the links below are affiliate links. Meaning I may earn a commission but this will be at no extra cost to you. And please remember guys, under no circumstances will I ever contact you and ask you for investments. You can confirm all of my real social media handles in the description. And jumping straight into the charts. Let's look at Bitcoin first of all to figure out what on earth is going on. 80,700.

[00:00:56]We were at 82,800 and we're basically bouncing between the 80 and the 82. Now, what I see right now that makes me feel a little bit bullish and the reason why I'm not currently closing my trade even though I am a bare market bear is because we are magnetized to the top of this bare flag. You see, normally at the top of the bare flags, right, the one we saw previously, we get rejected sharply, rejected sharply, rejected sharply, rejected sharply until we lose the support. Same for up until this point really until approximately middle of April. Since then, we have not been rejected sharply to the bottom of the bare flag. Remember down here, the bottom of this bare flag in this region is exactly where I opened this trade, which I have closed more than 2/3 of the trade already, giving me my 20 to $30,000 of profit I wanted for last month. But the reason I haven't closed the entire trade is what's going on right now is interesting. It seems like the bulls are actually in power right now and Bitcoin is right on the 200 day MA. So, I know a lot of people are talking about this. Whether you're bullish or bearish, we cannot ignore the history of what Bitcoin has done. So, if we turn all of this nonsense off and we just look at this purple line, you can see back here, 2022 was the previous bare market for anyone who wasn't there.

[00:02:23]Before that, 2018 was the bare market before that. The first time I realized that in fact, number does not always go up. Number does in fact go down. But this taught me such an important lesson that of course we'll yap about in a second. But if we even go all the way back, we zoom all the way back to the distant past 2014. God, imagine you were buying at the very top of the bull market in 2014 and you bought Bitcoin for $1,250.

[00:02:52]You bought it slap bang at the top.

[00:02:55]Within a few months, you would have been down 85%.

[00:03:00]But you know what happened after that.

[00:03:02]But let's take a look at the purple line, right? You can see right here, we came all the way up to get rejected in June. June of the bare market year prior to the high. So in 2014, it happened.

[00:03:16]And did we manage to spend some time above briefly? Yes. Look at this. You can see for about a week here, 10 days we spent above it. We came down, we bounced again and we spent approximately 22 days all around the June July time before capitulating into October and reaching the lows sometime after that.

[00:03:39]Now, let's fast forward to my first bull run where I thought I was an absolute genius. I was like, well, I never need to work a day in my life again. We can get bottles every time we go out to the club and I am a G. Well, that only lasted maybe six months and then I lost everything. Went lower than my initial investment, but that's okay because we learn. But let's learn from the 200 day MA. We came down briefly below it in February and then up to late early March. We came above it briefly only to lose it and get rejected exactly May 2018. Capitulation down to June. a wreath attempt at July and then capitulation all the way down into September, October, November, the end of the bare market. Well, the down period of the bare market, which a lot of people confuse, right? People think, okay, well, from here to here, it took 1,000 days, approximately 3 years to go to new highs. However, the down periods only last one year. And this is the thing that people forget. There's always going to be doom and gloom out there.

[00:04:48]You know, the new doom and gloom that I've heard, AI, yes, is going to change the world. Yes, liquidity will flow into the AI companies, into the stocks, into the NASDAQ, into all of these chipm companies, and so on. We will have a booming stock market for the next few years. And then when everyone realizes, oh wait, we're all going to lose our jobs. AI is in fact going to replace us and in fact has moved in leaps and bounds that have absolutely decimated all expectation. And then the jobs market collapses. The whole thing, the house of cards comes tumbling down and everyone loses 50 to 80% of their money.

[00:05:25]Now if that happens, what we need to keep into our mind, right, is the down period. That crash, they don't last as long as what people want you to believe, right? For some reason, the the the, you know, the normal thought process of how stock markets crash, for example, everyone always talks about the 2008 crash. All right, we went down on the S&P 500 from the high to the low 57%.

[00:05:54]But guys, the down period only lasted 518 days, so a year and a half. It wasn't the lost era. Well, it was still lost, but what people talk about, look, 2,000 days until we broke it. So, yes, the price if you bought the very high, right? And then you didn't do anything until here, it took you 2,000 days, oh, you know, 10ish years to get back, right? But the bit that people forget is if you follow a very simple DCA strategy where you make income and you dollar cost average that income into assets you believe in, right? Yes, those assets for a year and a half went down, but then you just accumulate them for the following or not for the following, sorry, from the high to the low for those 2,000 days. You would actually average down to about here and you would be in profit way sooner than for some reason anybody wants to admit. And that's the bit that I genuinely don't understand about these markets. Is it that nobody who comments and nobody who talks on CNBC, do they do they actually not invest for the long run? Is that what's going on? Let me know in the comment section what you guys think because this is what's happened in a very smaller amount of time in the S&P 500 over the last few years, right? We had the tariff crash where everyone was saying, "Don't buy this time's different." We had the COVID crash where everyone was like, "Don't buy this time's different." We had the war right now crash. Don't buy this time's different. And yet every single time this time is not different, we bounce straight back out. And you could argue, right, that uh in the tariff crash, it took us, it was painful. It was a horrible, disgusting 130 days if you had have bought the very high to then be in profit from the very high. But they discount this entire down period. Now, I digress. I'm yapping again. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.

[00:07:43]But to go back to the 200 day M8, we just discussed what happened in 2018. It got rejected. Now, what happened in 2022? we got rejected. All right, we got rejected here. So 2014, we spent some time above it. 2018 we got rejected.

[00:07:56]2022 we got rejected. And every single bare market we've discussed, we capitulate into September, October, November, the end of the year, we put in a low and then we rally. The down period only lasts one year and then 365 days and then we rally. So yes, it takes a,000 days if you buy the very high to the next time it breaks. However, the down period only lasts one year. So, the opportunity is pretty incredible. If Bitcoin is in fact the asset that you believe in, like I do, that will recover. If you don't believe it will recover, if you don't believe it's hard money, if you don't believe in Bitcoin, don't buy Bitcoin. It's quite that simple. Right now, we're at the 200 day MA. Surprisingly, as a bear, I do actually think we're going to rally more. I do actually think we're going to have a little bit maybe of an alt season here. Why do I think that? Well, in every bare market again guys, we have that. Now, this would be earlier than usual, right? But I think this time is different because we have the S&P 500 at all-time highs. We have the NASDAQ at all-time highs. We have gold and silver still up. They're down from where they were, but they're still up significantly. But look at the liquidity that sits, the liquidity that exists that is looking for a home. I think that Bitcoin could rally a little bit more.

[00:09:15]And I think this rally if Bitcoin rallies a little bit more, we can see somewhat of an alt season. A reminder for people who were there and people who weren't there in 2019, sorry, in 2019 here we had what was called DeFi summer, right? This is where Bitcoin did rally about 300% and we had alt season essentially. It was a little bit different because it was way back then.

[00:09:34]There was less altcoins, but we had what was known as DeFi summer. In 2022, 2023, we had Pepe season, meme season, right?

[00:09:42]We had meme season in 23. We had meme season in 24 and we had like utility tokens in 25. People say there was no altcoin season. There was there was loads of money, billions of dollars flying around. And now maybe this time is early because this time is different, right? Still a bare market, still a potential for a worsening economy, still a potential for intense inflation, all of that stuff. But I think that we could have a rally here. I think that altcoins could rally. And that is why I'm not closing my positions. I got Bitcoin position. I got an XRP position. I got Amazon and Meta positions. Uh I have a bunch of positions right ready for a move to the upside. This is how I hedge the fact that I will never claim to you that I know what will happen. I just know what happened in the history and I just know better than to think I can, you know, figure out something that hasn't happened in history when it keeps happening over and over again. However, this time could literally be different.

[00:10:38]So if I'm wrong and history does not repeat itself as it has for the last, you know, since 2014. If it doesn't, brilliant. I'm long Bitcoin. Few altcoins. I also have been building my Bitcoin spot bag, which I'm more than happy to buy. As you know, I was buying all the way down. I've stopped buying.

[00:10:54]I'm waiting now cuz we're up, but I'll continue to buy on the way down or I positioned myself with enough to buy on the way up. Oh, sorry, enough. I positioned myself by buying enough so when we go up, I'll be very happy. I've got more crypto now than I did at the top of the bull market, right? In not dollar value, but in crypto value. So, that's exactly what I want because nobody knows what will happen next. The best traders and investors that I study believe this. They don't know what will happen. And everyone on the internet, whether they're Ray Dallio saying that gold is better than Bitcoin, or they're this massive trader who's $125 million short on Bitcoin, or they're Kevin Walsh, who could now be the first pro- Bitcoin uh chair in history, or Bitcoin flashing its first early bull signal, or this massive whale that seems to be capitulating. They bought at 90,000 and now they're selling at like 82,000.

[00:11:50]Nobody knows what will happen. All we can do is prepare for the potential of what will come. Whether you're bull or you're bare, you hedge your bets. You wait patiently. And most of all, you zoom out and you chill out. With that said, today's rant is over. If you appreciate it, hit the subscribe button.

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