Gold Silver Outlook: डॉलर इंडेक्स का दबाव या कुछ और?

[00:00:04]Hello Namaskar, welcome to our Weekly Outlook show and we are joined by renowned senior economist and always graceful to our programmes, Dr Sharad Kohli. Dr Sharad, thank you so much for giving your valuable time. This past week was quite eventful and this event also increased the anxiety of the people and we got to see the impact of the developments that came out at the geopolitical level from the Fed's commentary and the confirmation for which people are still waiting. So what does your analysis say? Meaning, was it really just the dollar index that was the main reason for the pressure on gold or the bullion market or were there many other factors behind it?

[00:00:55]Prashant was the speculation behind this.

[00:01:00]My team at Commerce works heavily in comics and we capture a lot of data from it.

[00:01:07]So the short contracts that are in the comics had a heavy build up.

[00:01:11]As soon as the Fed commented that Kevin Wash, who is a Trump man, half the votes went this way and half went that way.

[00:01:21]Kevin Wash, being a Trump supporter, was not going to increase the rates, he kept them stable but he definitely had to say that the rates could increase by the end of this year if inflation persists. As soon as he heard this, the bears here in Bombay, India, created short contracts there and gold which was standing at $300, fell to around 4100-4150 and in the hope that if the rates rise further, then the rates will increase, then people's money will go into fixed return investments. Gold does not give any return, does not give dividend, this will happen, then this will happen, then this will happen, so when this happens, this will happen, this will happen, the bet is placed on this, so this is called a speculative bet, Prashant. So this was a speculative shot, there is a huge build up in the comics and looking at the same, in the Indian market also, gold 145000 which was running around ₹15 lakh, at that time there has been a fall of approximately ₹5000 here and there from ₹145000. The dollar index remains up. So dollar index is also a reason. It remains so because I have come to know that efforts are being made to keep the dollar high in America.

[00:02:37]Because Donald Trump was thinking that if the price of crude oil falls because of their dollar, then in this whole war, one thing which Donald Trump was liking a lot, I know that he was not liking the other things, the rest were stuck but one thing which he was liking was that there was demand for his dollar everywhere, there was demand for dollar in GCC, there was demand for dollar from everywhere, so he was very happy about this, there is a Hindi idiom called Bachhe Khilna, I don't know whether you have heard it or not, so he was getting happy after hearing this, now he felt that dollar has come to 78, ah WTI has come to 7475, then our dollar will fall. They wanted that their dominance of dollar, dominance of dollar, bullying of dollar, hooliganism of dollar, hooliganism of dollar should remain intact, that somehow we can do whatever is there, so I have come to know that in the Forex market of Pacific against Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Swedish Krona, Canadian Dollar, by the way, let me tell you that there is a whole market of Forex, there are derivatives there also. A huge amount of dollar contracts were created in it due to which the dollar index remains above 100. But mainly the reason for gold coming under pressure at this time was the Fed's commentary and I have my own channel, Sharad Kohli Official, which my office people had created two-three months ago, in which I specifically discussed whether we can consider this short term trend as a long term trend, should people panic, should there be selling in panic, etc. etc. So I feel that this is a temporary phase and the trend of two, four, two, four, five months should not be considered as a trend of two, four, five years. Prashant, absolutely, absolutely, sir, so the short volatility of some time has always been bullish in the long term, Dr. Sharad, Dr. Sharad, whether it is buying of central banks, amidst all this, we are seeing many restrictions and along with this, we are seeing that all the brokerages are also quite bullish right now, but we also have to accept that June is about to end now.

[00:04:52]In such a situation, if some better conditions are created at the geopolitical level in such a short time, then only a bullish trend will be seen or do you think that the long term horizon in gold and silver, whether it is the year end horizon, is still intact. I think he is intact. I think you may see some pressure in the short term.

[00:05:18]Some movement will be visible from time to time. But the real impact that you will see is when there are US elections, a little before the mid-term in November, you will see some movement in gold. Vi is realistically speaking September October may come even before that. It's not like that. But at that time, since it is mid-term, President Trump's attention will be on the elections when he realizes that he is losing. And if they lose and their majority goes away from there and the Republicans' majority goes away from the House of Representatives and the Congress, then I feel that gold will move at that time because then a huge unrest will arise in America and if unrest starts in America then the value of their dollar will fall. The value of the dollar, which they have artificially kept high, will gradually fall and as soon as it falls, gold will move. This is what I feel.

[00:06:08]Absolutely.

[00:06:09]So what is the general range for gold and silver at present?

[00:06:16]I think right now if we talk to you in Indian Rupees then it is around ₹145000, so I feel that the range will be between ₹1 lakh 35 and 1.5 lakh ₹ 1015000 and if we talk about silver then silver is around 60, if we talk about dollars then in Indian Rupees it will move between $300 and 2.5 lakh ₹60 70000, this could be the short term trend but short term trend does not matter that much to me Prashant, when you asked me, I told you that I do not talk on short term because I feel that these things are not meant for short term. People started doing short term. But this thing is not short term. By the way, by character, gold and silver are not things to be kept in the short term.

[00:06:59]Absolutely Sir, amidst all this, a very important news came today in which the Government of India has asked ONGC to expand its oil reserves. Especially the kind of pressure that has emerged due to the recent crisis in West Asia, in which it is being said that a very big plant worth Rs 15,000 crore is being talked about being built, especially near Bengaluru.

[00:07:26]Currently, there is talk of a capacity of 5.33 million tonnes.

[00:07:31]Preparations are underway to expand it further.

[00:07:34]Now there is complete softening in crude.

[00:07:37]Things are happening outside as well. And how are you looking at India's preparation considering all these factors and should we also keep our preparations strong for the oil crisis and energy crisis that countries like Europe are facing in the coming times? Absolutely ready, until we are ready for alternative energy, until we have biofuel, solar, wind mill, all the ethanol, until we are fully prepared, I think we will have to keep oil reserves and we will have to keep in mind the vulnerability which is called vulnerability in English, the impact related to it, and this is not a task that can be done overnight, but now the time has come to press the accelerator, in the last three months, the Government of India, the Petroleum Ministry, the industry have learnt many big lessons in this and I think people have seen the stars in the day at some places.

[00:08:33]So see, man learns by making mistakes.

[00:08:36]I feel that if I don't learn it now, then when will I learn it? Whatever we have learnt from this entire incident in these three months, now the time has come for us to use that learning and we should use alternative energy. I feel that alternative energy is the only way. Ok? There are reserves and now we can collect reserves at cheap prices.

[00:08:54]All those things are fine. But green energy renewable energy is the future this is the only way and there is no other way.

[00:09:03]Whatever alternative energy there is, it clearly needs to be worked on at a very large scale. Sir, especially the stance of the new Chairman of the Fed, ah what does your research say, there was a perception that he is Trump's man and it is possible that he is in line with many things. But they have put a brake on many of the things that were already going on, especially forward guidance, that no such forward guidance will be available in the future. That tradition is also going away and amidst all this he said one more thing that brother, there is every hope that interest rates will increase this year. In such a situation, the concern regarding inflation has now been left behind because now crude has softened. Now we will see its impact in the coming times. But apart from inflation, what are the concerns you see now after the new stance? I feel that the inflation concerns may recede from here. It can go back. I feel he should not have said this.

[00:10:12]That's why I shouldn't have said it. The Fed meeting took place at a time when the fighting had stopped.

[00:10:16]When crude oil prices had fallen below $80.

[00:10:18]So in such a situation, even if he had not said that there would be inflation in the future, there would have been no need for it. Because when crude oil was available, most of the problems were caused by crude oil.

[00:10:27]Well, the second problem was because of the Pacific tariff. The Supreme Court has also rejected their tariff. Now the era of getting 10%, 12%, 50%, 35%, 40% from someone is over now.

[00:10:40]His policy has failed. The court has ruled against him. So there was a fear of inflation due to these two reasons. Now that both the reasons have been removed, I do not understand why these rates will increase beyond the guidance when you were not increasing them.

[00:10:51]This was not needed and Donald Trump would not have liked it because what's next is the midterms in November. The midterm primaries have begun and Donald Trump's approval rating has plummeted.

[00:11:02]Republicans are cross-voting.

[00:11:04]So I feel that now my entire focus is on November because as November arrives, you will see Donald Trump's Trump Mood Index, which we have created in office, at its extreme volatility because he will keep doing something or the other. Prashant will keep doing strange things which has happened with Italian Prime Minister Meloni.

[00:11:27]You will see a lot of this type of activity.

[00:11:30]Strange and weird behavior will be seen. They will say what is not there. He will not say what he wants to say. I will say what I don't want to say.

[00:11:35]Some such strange policies will also come to light. Will try to show it. I am very popular. People love me a lot and I am the most popular and most approved President.

[00:11:49]Some such decisions will be taken in doing this type of activities. So now this period from here till October, Prashant, if I say it in brief, is going to be very volatile in America. Of course, there is one more thing, sir, and the way Donald Trump put Israel in a compromise situation. We also saw in the tariff issue that they put their own allies in such a situation that it becomes a situation of a well on one side and a ditch on the other. In such a situation, you feel that the position of Israel has now become very complicated because elections are going to be held there too in October and now the question of credibility has arisen before Benjamin Netanyahu, that is, the very ally on whose support he was trying to put all this strategic pressure.

[00:12:41]All the desires of regency change were left behind. Of course, the regime change he wanted to make will not happen. I think Donald Trump and America's truth are unbelievable.

[00:12:54]So Netan Yau should have known that America works only in its own interests. And their sins were fulfilled. He also told Israel that you too will not do it. Yesterday they imposed ceasefire on Hezbollah and also got it done forcefully and now this poor Netan Netan Yau is in a dilemma whether to go here or there, if he does not listen to Trump then Trump gets angry and if he continues the attack then by the way there is not much support against Netan Yau in Israel also, from time to time people have come out on the streets in Israel, there have been protests against Netan Yau, so now Netan Yau has to decide what he will do, rest you can expect trust from America, day before yesterday when the press conference was being held Prashant, I was on one of the national English channels when Modi ji and Trump ji were sitting, both were sitting on the chair, the press conference was going on, then he asked me a question, he said that Prime Minister Modi is a beautiful man, first of all the word beautiful is not used for any male person, handsome is used, Mr. Mr. Modi is an angel, so he is a male, angel is feminine, is it right or not? First thing. Secondly, as long as Modi ji is there, if anyone attacks India, I will come to save it. Look, Modi ji should be there.

[00:14:12]I was immediately asked a question. Although I do not come from geopolitics, I come from economics. So I was asked what do you have to say about this? I said yes, this is one because I am more Punjabi than him. I am Punjabi by name. I know a little Punjabi.

[00:14:28]So there is a saying in Punjabi, Prashant, I will tell you in Hindi that even if such a person sits on a hot pan and says this, we will not believe it, that is, even if he sits on a hot pan and says this, we will not believe it, so he asked me [laughs], oh wow, this is such a good thing that they have come to save India, a shield has come for India, if they attacked yesterday, then someone said, forget it, their words and actions are never the same, so trusting America, Prashant, this is the most foolish thing to do, that if you make your policy by trusting America. You sit down and relax. You start your move You Should Never Trust It. Never give always work in their own interest. That's it.

[00:15:10]Absolutely sir. Some questions are also coming up.

[00:15:12]I take those too. And one of these questions is from one of our viewers. They are asking, Sir, what do you think from here, if silver goes up, how much will it go up or will there be more scope for it to go down? Look, you should take this advice from your investment advisor.

[00:15:27]We do the analysis.

[00:15:29]But personally, I believe that if you hold it for two to five years, it will go up.

[00:15:37]Sir, what are your vision for the next two to five years? The price of O price can break the previous high.

[00:15:48]What is the matter.

[00:15:50]So let's see, the entire scenario right now is positive.

[00:15:54]Just short term volatility is definitely a cause of concern somewhere. But there is that pressure too. That is there, there is pressure too.

[00:16:02]Both things exactly and it is a cyclical cycle.

[00:16:05]Generally this kind of thing is necessary for any such class.

[00:16:08]Sir, I would like to understand one thing, I mean, you have experience from such a long time, how to play out these corrections, I mean, from an investor's point of view, I mean, like the mindset of an investor is that I will buy when the prices fall, I mean, the way they were high, so in such a situation, what advice would you give to a completely new person on gold and silver, who is probably watching your video today, a completely new viewer, listening to you for the first time, I think this is an opportunity to enter, keeping Modi ji's words in mind, keep Modi ji's words in mind first, but I think a good way of investing is if you do it little by little, you know SIP form, SIP not necessarily you know mutual fund SIP, SIP is also a way of investing, so if you do it little by little and can have patience for two to five years.

[00:16:59]I think only the person who has patience can achieve success in gold and silver.

[00:17:06]Many people have come who have started trading in gold and silver, I buy it today and sell it tomorrow after a week, that gold and silver is that type of thing, no you have misunderstood gold and silver, if you are trading then you should keep it for a long time, keep it for a long time, it is like saying back to basics, you should look at your ancestors especially, they have been giving gold to me for many generations and I met a woman last week.

[00:17:39]She said, this is my educated mother-in-law, now I don't know what to call an educated mother-in-law.

[00:17:44]Meaning, he calls his mother-in-law's mother-in-law's mother-in-law, and also his grandmother-in-law Daya Saas. His grandmother-in-law had told him that this necklace belonged to his grandmother-in-law. So you try it, I do n't know what this is, read, read, read, read, so see, since when has this been going on, I think this happened maybe before 1900, I was calculating brother, for 30-30 years there was a mother-in-law, the daughter-in-law remained together for 30 years, 35 years, if on an average then you multiply it by four, it becomes 120 years, it means that that necklace of the 19th century is kept, it becomes difficult for you to keep it for 20 years, 120 days [laughs] now what is the matter, there can be no better example than this.

[00:18:27]Thank you so much Doctor Sharad. Before you go, please give me a disclaimer.

[00:18:33]Absolutely, you see, this is not any investment advice. We and Prashant PV's original Joe interact with you here.

[00:18:40]We do an analysis.

[00:18:44]You should take investment advice from your SEBI registered finance professional and invest wisely. The videos you watch on social media, you are also watching them on social media only. You can take this as an analysis and knowledge enhancing video. The decision to invest should be your own.

[00:19:08]Thank you so much Doctor Sharad. It felt good as always. You gave your valuable time while talking.

[00:19:13]Thank you very much to him. So, that's all for this discussion.

[00:19:18]We will bring many more shows for you.

[00:19:20]Thank you very much.