SOFI STOCK CRASHES| Now What?

本站添加: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]SoFi and stock market investors, welcome back to the channel. My name's Jason. I want to talk about the latest SoFi earnings report real quick. And WTF, take a look at your screen. The stock sold off considerably. We bounced a little bit this morning, but we'll see if we can continue that momentum going forward. We're going to talk about the earnings report, my thoughts on the earnings report, and what I'm doing with my shares moving forward. We could see we're up about 3% today, but wow, we went right off a cliff. But, I think a lot of that has to do with guidance. So, we're going to talk about what's going on with SoFi stock. As you guys know, I'm a big SoFi investor. There's 600 shares in this smaller baby account. And in my big dog account, we own right here 6,335 shares. I added 335 more shares on the dip yesterday in the in the mid $15 range. Here we go. I'm going to take a look at this article right here on 24/7 Wall Street. SoFi beat on Q1 2026 revenue, 1.10 billion versus 1.05 billion expected, and achieved 41% adjusted net revenue. That's a great number, guys. That's in 1 year, 41% adjusted net revenue growth, record lending originations. That business model is very strong, 12.18 billion, up 68% year-over-year, but the stock fell 13% after management reaffirmed full year guidance. I think that's the responsible thing to do. There's a lot of macro things going on with the war over in the Middle East, and oil prices are affecting the entire global economy.

[00:01:41]Also, guys, Jerome Powell in his last meeting, they're steadfast on not lowering rates.

[00:01:48]So, rates are staying the same. So, those two things are really putting headwinds against SoFi stock in the short term, but this too shall pass. So, again, SoFi failed to raise guidance despite being in revenue for four straight quarters, and posting its fastest adjusted net revenue growth in 3 years triggered a sell-off with investors signaling disappointment in the outlook. That's a bummer, but it is what it is here, guys.

[00:02:14]The stock is back in that $15 range. I do think long term this is a buying opportunity, and I'm still holding my $25 price target for the year.

[00:02:24]Guidance stayed put, but bulls get cold feet. There's a lot of people trading this stock right now. People were trading it hoping that the stock would run up after earnings, and then dump the shares after it went up. Since they didn't raise guidance, people got scared, and then it was like a domino effect. The selling just kind of cascaded on us a little bit there, but with revenue down 27% on large client departures, and enable accounts off 16% credit metrics ticked up to personal loan charge-offs rose 3.03% from 2.8% sequentially.

[00:02:57]I do think the tech platform right here is one of the main reasons why people are getting nervous about the stock.

[00:03:05]But, the tech platform has been a bummer for the stock for years now. So, I'm not really that concerned about that at all whatsoever. Members grew 35% to 14.7 million. We'll cross 15 million members next quarter very easily. Products were up 39% and 43% of new products came from existing members. A lot of cross buying happening on the platform. I just upgraded to the SoFi Plus with you get 4.5% on the first $20,000 in your savings account. I took advantage of that, for sure.

[00:03:39]Here's some of the figures. Adjusted EPS of 12 cents. That came in line with consensus. It would have been more, in my opinion, but I do think the tech platform being a huge bummer kept us at 12 cents. Revenue of 1.1 billion versus 1.05 billion. That's a 5% beat. GAAP net income 166.7 million dollars. That's great for one quarter. You know, if you strap extrapolate that over a whole year, you're talking about almost 700 million dollars in net income. You got to love that. Up 134% year-over-year. How can you not love this number, guys? How can you not love it? Adjusted EBITDA 339.9 million at a 31% margin. Great margins.

[00:04:23]Adjusted EBITDA looking really, really healthy, in my opinion. Deposits over 40 billion dollars with cost of funds down 48 basis points year-over-year.

[00:04:33]And the stock reaction down 13%.

[00:04:38]Uh Anthony Noto, this is what he had to say in the earnings report.

[00:04:42]Uh he said, "Had an excellent Q1 delivering another quarter of durable growth and strong returns fueled by relentless focus on innovation and brand building." He also flagged the strategic entry into new areas like digital assets including the SoFi stablecoin and a Mastercard settlement tie-in. The term was confident, not promotional. So, in other words, you know, he's not talking in hyperbole.

[00:05:06]I like Anthony Noto cuz he's a pretty straight-laced guy. He calls it like he sees it, the good, the bad, and the ugly. He keeps us informed, but he doesn't really give us a bunch of BS, and that's what I like about Anthony Noto. All right, here's what they're watching for in Q2. Two things matter from here. First, whether the tech platform stabilizes after the client loss. Second, whether credit holds up as charge-offs creep up. If management raises forward year guide on the next earnings report, today's reaction looks like an overreaction worth revisiting.

[00:05:37]If not, the 23.48 average analyst target gets harder to defend. So, I'm kind of in that same camp as the writer of this article.

[00:05:48]We got to see how credit looks going in to the future. So, with oil prices up, everyone's feeling a stranglehold right now at the gas pump.

[00:06:00]Inflation is going to go up because oil affects everything. All the products we have to get each and every week come from trucks and planes and trains. And so, if energy is up, then we're going to see inflation, and that's going to be hard for people to pay back their loans.

[00:06:17]So, we're going to see the charge-off rate increase. So, we really want to get that oil prices down. We need to see that oil barrel price go down. If we see oil barrel prices go down under 100 bucks, I think the guide will be better next quarter. I know you're like, "What does oil have to do with a bank?" But, a lot more than people think. So, that's where I'm at right now, guys. I'm nibbling on shares in that $15 range, but I'm right around 7,000 shares. So, my position is pretty much built out. I'm going to wait and see, sell some covered calls in the meantime. All right, guys, while we're filming this live, SoFi is ticking up right now, up over 4 and 1/2% back to 1624.

[00:06:56]I would love to get to 17 bucks per share, kind of gain some of this momentum back, and flip the momentum back on our side. All right, SoFi investors, real quick, I just want to go over some highlights from this earnings report that I think are very important for us moving forward. The fee-based revenue of 387 million, up 23% year-over-year, represents now 36% of adjusted net revenue. We love that. Love to see that.

[00:07:23]GAAP net income 167 million, 15% GAAP net income margin.

[00:07:28]Love that. Credit remains steady and in line with expectations. Record loan originations.

[00:07:34]Total deposits grew to 2.7 billion quarter-over-quarter to over 40 billion dollars.

[00:07:41]That's great, man. The more deposits they get, the more leverage they have.

[00:07:45]The tangible book value growth of 336 million quarter-over-quarter.

[00:07:50]The tangible book value is closing on 10 billion dollars, investors. We love to see that. Set new records in members and products. So, new members are translating to new products being used on the platform. We have to make sure that they stay in lockstep, that we're not just gaining members and not gaining new products. Because once that happens, that's when we have to start to be worried. Drove brand awareness to an all-time high. Unaided brand awareness reached a record 10% reflecting SoFi's strength as a trusted brand name.

[00:08:21]Getting out there, man. The name is getting out there.

[00:08:24]And I do think this went kind of swept under the radar a little bit. In 2026, SoFi launched big business banking. And in big business banking, big loans equal big dollars, right? So, I think that's a great great asset for this business model moving forward. And this is really, I know it sounds like hyperbole, but it is a one-stop shop for all your financial needs, whether it's small business banking, big business banking, loans, mortgages, student loans. I love it. So, here's all their different platforms.

[00:08:55]The crypto should start making them a lot more money as we move forward as well. The unaided brand awareness, we're seeing that go up to the right. And the members up to the right as well. And US Bank in Forbes World's Best Bank, number one bank from Forbes is SoFi. The number one bank in J.D. Power 2026 Investor Satisfaction Study for DIY investing, number one.

[00:09:21]So, the Forbes World's Best Bank, number one. That is remarkable, guys. The brand awareness is at an all-time high.

[00:09:28]Here's the one-stop shop I was talking about, all the different platforms. It's getting remarkable how much of a footprint this company is having on the banking industry. I'm very proud of where we're at right now. Rule Rule of 40, SoFi is built to consistently deliver a unique combination of growth and returns.

[00:09:49]Steady growth and returns, adjusted net revenue growth. It's pretty solid there, man. And then adjusted even a margin, steady over that 29 to 30% range.

[00:10:02]You got to love that. You got to love that durable growth. Adjusting that revenue is skyrocketing. They're projecting huge numbers. These numbers are in millions right now.

[00:10:14]Woo, baby. These are big time numbers here. Adjusting earnings per share, they're looking by 2028 to do a dollar to a dollar 12. That's almost double where we're at right now. They're projecting 60 cents. They got a lot of work to do. I'm not going to lie, guys, to get the 60 cents. They got a lot of work to do. So, I'm hoping the next two quarters are extremely profitable for the company moving forward, right? We have all these different things that we've launched over the last calendar year. Crypto, pay.

[00:10:44]SoFi USD, big business banking. It just keeps getting better and better and better. The SoFi code should be interesting in SoFi technology solutions. The tech platform needs to man up because that's kind of been shitty so far. The products look good. The members look great. 35% year-over-year growth. It looks great.

[00:11:03]Adjusting that revenue guiding huge here from up and to the right. All these numbers are up and to the right. Adjusting that income EBITDA, I'm really happy where we're at right now. Diversified revenue streams. The fee-based revenue mix looks really good.

[00:11:19]Ticked down a little bit because the loan platform did so good this quarter.

[00:11:25]There is a demand for the loans right now. So, everything's looking pretty good in my opinion. Like I said in my video, I don't really care what the price of the stock does in the short term. As long as execution continues, I do want to see the tech platform bump up a little bit for sure. They got to figure that out or just dump the business model cuz if we're going to keep investing in it and not getting a return on our investment, you got to know when to hold them and then when to fold them. All right, guys. Thank you so much for tuning in to this video. I appreciate you guys. And let's go.