The Oil Shock Is About To Hit America

追加: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]America may look protected from the oil shock, but that protection may be weaker than people think. That is the real story right now. On the surface, the United States looks like one of the safest countries in the world during an oil crisis. It produces huge amounts of oil. It has shale. It has the Permian Basin. It has companies that can respond faster than many traditional oil producers.

[00:00:28]And because of that, a lot of people assume America can simply drill its way out of this problem.

[00:00:35]But that is where the danger begins, because this oil shock is not just about whether America has oil underground.

[00:00:43]It's about global prices, global supply, inflation, petrol prices, food prices, transport costs, and what happens when a major part of the world's oil system is disrupted for too long.

[00:00:58]US shale oil drillers have responded rapidly to the surge in crude oil prices since the start of the Iran war by ramping up production.

[00:01:09]But output gains are likely to be far more constrained than in the previous shale boom.

[00:01:15]The loss of around 13% of the world's oil supplies due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been a boon for the US oil industry. That is the key point.

[00:01:27]At first, this sounds like good news for America.

[00:01:31]US shale producers are responding.

[00:01:34]Production is rising. Exports are increasing. America is helping supply the world at a time when Europe and Asia are under pressure. But the same fact also reveals the problem. If America is exporting more oil into a world that is short of supply, then America is not separate from the crisis.

[00:01:56]It is inside a crisis.

[00:01:59]It may be stronger than other countries, but it is still exposed to the same global price shock. And when oil becomes more expensive globally, American households do not get a separate protected price just because the oil came from Texas. Take a look at this clip where Roger Altman explains why the oil market may be reaching a tipping point and why the market has not fully felt the shock yet. Well, I think the big question of the moment uh including uh reflecting events over the last two or three days is whether we're now at a tipping point in terms of the oil market.

[00:02:38]And whether uh uh we're about to see over the next say 2 weeks really uh substantially higher oil prices. Why would that happen?

[00:02:50]Because 12 to 14 million barrels a day have been taken out of the oil market against the average daily global consumption of about 102 million barrels.

[00:02:59]>> Okay. And that effect has been cushioned. I think Dan Yergin might have referred to this uh by high inventories.

[00:03:07]A lot of tankers at sea that were full.

[00:03:09]Uh uh strategic petroleum reserves which have been released.

[00:03:14]And high China inventories. All those now have been drawn down a lot and about to really lose their cushioning effect on the market. That clip matters because it explains why the crisis may feel delayed. Prices have already risen, but the full shock may not have arrived yet because the market has been cushioned by investors, tankers already at sea, strategic reserves, and supplies still moving through the system.

[00:03:43]But those buffers are not permanent.

[00:03:45]They're like savings. They can protect you for a while, but if you keep drawing from them, eventually they run down.

[00:03:53]And when those cushions disappear, the market has to face the real shortage directly.

[00:04:00]That is when prices can rise much faster than people expect.

[00:04:05]This is why the phrase America is protected can be misleading.

[00:04:10]Yes, America is in a stronger position than many countries, but that does not mean there will be no pain.

[00:04:17]It may simply mean the pain arrives differently.

[00:04:21]America may not see immediate empty petrol stations. Instead, the pressure may show up through inflation. Higher gas prices, higher airline tickets, higher food costs, higher delivery fees, and businesses raising prices because their own costs are rising. Suddenly, what began as an oil story becomes a cost of living story.

[00:04:46]Take a look at this clip from senior economist Elena Shulyatyeva, where she explains why $5 gas is impossible if the crisis continues into the summer driving season. I think it $5 is quite possible if the situation continues and the blockade persists into the summer driving season. So, we're approaching the Memorial Day weekend and a lot of people will hit the roads despite the high gasoline price. I would be watching how this impacts spending elsewhere. I think we're all used to paying for gas. This is somewhat inelastic in a sense, but we may be cutting on other things, you know, like clothing or you know, some other services, for example. That is the part that hits ordinary people directly.

[00:05:42]Gasoline is different from many other expenses because people often cannot simply stop buying it. If you need to drive to work, you still drive. If you need to take your children somewhere, you still do it. If you need to run your business, make deliveries, or commute, fuel is not optional. So, people keep paying for gas, but then they cut back elsewhere. They cut back on clothes.

[00:06:09]They cut back on eating out. They cut back on travel, shopping, and other services.

[00:06:16]That is how an oil shock becomes a consumer shock. It does not only raise one price. It changes spending behavior across the whole economy. Take a look at this final clip from Yelena, where the interviewer raises the question of whether this inflation shock could be temporary, but carefully avoids using one of the most loaded words from the last inflation crisis. So, how sticky do you think this inflation could be? If you're the Federal Reserve, are you thinking this is I'm not going to use the word transitory, but I mean, how sticky can this be, do you think?

[00:06:53]It depends on how long it lasts, quite frankly. For now, the pass-through into a broader inflation is pretty limited, actually. You know, if you look at the composition of CPI price increases, where do you see all these increases?

[00:07:12]You see that in products and services which usually experience an immediate pass-through. So, like air fares, or food prices, things like that. But, it hasn't yet passed through into a broader core inflation metrics. So, the longer it lasts, the higher core prices will be, and that would make the Federal Reserve job much more difficult. That line from the interviewer is very important. He says, "Are you thinking this is I'm not going to use the word transitory?"

[00:07:50]And that matters because America has heard that word before. During the pandemic era, lockdowns shut down parts of the economy, disrupted factories, delayed shipping, and created shortages across the supply chain. Then, when the economy reopened, demand came rushing back faster than supply could recover.

[00:08:13]Officials argued that inflation would be temporary, but for millions of households, it did not feel temporary at all.

[00:08:21]And to understand why the word transitory still matters, take a look at this clip from the pandemic era inflation debate when officials repeatedly argued that rising prices would come back down. that these inflation rises will be transitory, that they will come back down next year. will settle down. transitory transitory that inflation will come down next year. This is going to be ease inflationary pressure. Not increase ease inflationary pressure. It will ease longer-term inflationary inflationary pressures.

[00:08:54]This bill is going to ease inflationary pressures.

[00:08:57]>> Everything from a gallon of gas to a loaf of bread costs more. Did you ever think you'd be paying this much for a gallon of gas? US inflation eventually hit 9.1% in June 2022, the largest 12-month increase in more than 40 years.

[00:09:14]Energy prices rose 41.6% over that same period, and gasoline prices rose 59.9%.

[00:09:23]Food prices also rose sharply with the food index up 10.4% over the year.

[00:09:30]So, this was not just a Wall Street problem or a policy debate. It was a grocery store problem, a petrol station problem, a rent problem, a household budget problem. Prices kept rising. The cost of living got worse. Groceries, rent, fuel, cars, services, and everyday bills became more expensive. And eventually, the Federal Reserve had to respond with aggressive interest rate hikes.

[00:10:02]So, when the interviewer avoids the word transitory, that is not just a throwaway line. It's a reminder of the last inflation shock. It reminds people of a period when inflation was first treated as something that would pass quickly, but then became much more painful and much harder to control.

[00:10:24]And now, the fear is that this oil shock could follow a similar pattern.

[00:10:29]It may start with gas prices, and we're already seeing signs of inflation coming back into the American economy.

[00:10:37]US prices rose in April at their fastest rate since May 2023 as the impact of the war in Iran was increasingly felt by consumers. A jump in the cost of gasoline and groceries pushed the consumer price index, CPI, showing the rate prices rose in the past 12 months to 3.8%.

[00:10:59]It's the highest level since inflation hit 4% 3 years ago.

[00:11:05]The Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, said almost half of the rise was driven by surging energy costs, while housing and food costs also contributed. And this is where the story becomes political as well as economic, because once gas prices rise, people do not experience it as a spreadsheet. They experience it every time they pull into the petrol station.

[00:11:31]They see the numbers moving on the pump.

[00:11:34]They feel it when a normal tank of gas costs far more than it used to.

[00:11:38]And that is why this moment matters.

[00:11:42]President Trump has tried to downplay the pressure, but for millions of Americans preparing to travel, commute, and get through the summer, these prices are not small.

[00:11:53]Take a look at this clip where Trump responds to rising gas prices as CNN breaks down what Americans are now paying. Gas prices up to a near wartime high with a record 39 million Americans expected to hit the road this Memorial Day weekend. The national average now stands at $4.56 a gallon.

[00:12:15]President Trump says, again, he's not thinking about these rising prices.

[00:12:20]This is peanuts, and I appreciate everybody putting up with it for a little while. It won't be much longer, but uh you're going to have And frankly, there is so much oil out there. One of the things that is happening is these big ships are coming up to Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, and they're loading up. But I don't even think about that. What I think about is you can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon. CNN's Matt Egan is with us now. Peanuts, he says. That clip captures the tension perfectly.

[00:12:49]Trump says he does not even think about the rising prices and calls it peanuts because in his view, the bigger issue is Iran and the nuclear threat. But for ordinary Americans, gas prices are not peanuts. They're weekly bills. They're family budgets. They are delivery costs.

[00:13:10]Their summer travel plans. They are the cost of getting to work and getting children where they need to go.

[00:13:17]And when the national average is around $5.56 a gallon with tens of millions of Americans expected to travel over Memorial Day weekend, this is not just an energy market problem anymore. It's a household problem.

[00:13:34]The real warning is that higher gas prices rarely stop at the gas station.

[00:13:39]They spread through the whole economy, and they also become a major political problem for any president in power.

[00:13:47]Americans may not follow every oil market chart, but they see gas prices every week. They see them on the signs outside petrol stations.

[00:13:57]They feel them when they fill the tank.

[00:14:00]And when those prices stay high, people often blame the person in the White House, whether the president controls the oil market or not. History shows how dangerous this can be.

[00:14:13]In the late 1970s, President Jimmy Carter faced an energy crisis, high inflation, and long lines at gas stations. By 1980, inflation was still painful.

[00:14:26]Petrol prices were a daily frustration, and Ronald Reagan used the famous question, "Are you better off than you were four years ago?"

[00:14:36]Carter lost in a landslide.

[00:14:39]That is why oil shocks matter politically.

[00:14:43]They don't just affect truckers, airlines, farmers, and businesses. They can damage consumer confidence, deepen anger about inflation, and become a direct threat to a presidency.