Eli Lilly Just Proved GLP-1 Prices Could Be Lower… Here’s the Chart!

Added: 2026-05-06

[00:00:00]If your insurance does not cover GLP1s, if you're paying cash month after month, if you're waiting on Medicare, crossing your fingers hoping it stays, hoping it doesn't go away, or if you are just trying to figure out what is coming next in obesity treatment, this video is for you. Eli Liy this past week held their Q1 2026 earnings call. 19.8 8 billion in revenue. Profits up 156%. And Wall Street loved it. The stock jumped 9%. But Wall Street and patients are not the same audience. And the story Lily told investors is not the same story patients need to hear. Today, I'm going to walk you through 10 things from this call that actually affect your treatment. the questions Lily did not answer and the one chart in their own slide deck that proves what we've been saying all along about pricing and access.

[00:00:57]Hello everyone, my name is Christopher Durham. Welcome back to the downsized.

[00:01:02]A bit of quick context if you're new here. My wife Lorraine and I have lost a combined 150 pounds together using GLP1s. Our insurance has never covered any of these drugs for obesity. So every dose we've taken has been out of our own pockets. I've been on compound, Zepabound, and Monaro, all the same active ingredients.

[00:01:24]The patient experience I bring to this channel, it's the reality we've all lived.

[00:01:30]Two quick disclaimers. This is not medical advice. Please talk to your doctor. This is also not financial advice. We're talking about an earnings call today. And I'm not telling you to buy or sell anything. I'm translating Wall Street into patient language. If this channel has helped you, hit the like button and subscribe. It takes one second and it helps the next patient find this video. Eli Lilly's Q1 2026 earnings call took place on Thursday, April 30th, 2026.

[00:02:01]CEO David Ricks led the call alongside CFO Lucas Montark and Chief Scientific and Product Officer Dr. Dan Scaransski.

[00:02:11]The call covered the quarter from January 1st through March 31st, 2026.

[00:02:18]Everything I'm sharing today comes directly from the earnings call transcript, the press release, and the slide deck Lily published that morning.

[00:02:26]Sources are linked in the description.

[00:02:28]Here are 10 things that matter to your life as a patient on GLP1s.

[00:02:34]Number one, the pill is real. It's here, but the launch is not as strong as Lily is hoping it would be. Fondo, the brand name for our foglerron, got FDA approved in April. It hitarmacies on April 9th.

[00:02:48]It's the first GLP-1 pill from Lily approved for obesity that you can take any time of day with or without food, with or without water. CEO David Ricks called it quote highly effective for weight management end quote. Lily says more than 80% of foundo prescriptions are going to people who have never been on an Inkrretton before. That's the Lily story. Here's the part Lily did not lead with. Lily's stock actually dropped the week before earnings because early Fondo prescription numbers disappointed Wall Street. Fondeo is launching three months behind Nordis oral Wgoi and patients have options. Lily is in second place in the oral pill race, not first. what this means for you and I. Well, Fondo is a real option. Get excited about that. But do not assume it is going to be widely available, easily accessible, or cheap right out of the gate. Competition is good for patients, but it also means each company is fighting for the same prescriber and the same coverage.

[00:03:50]I don't know. The common wisdom here has been that this is a maintenance drug.

[00:03:53]And what I'll tell you is although it may work well for maintenance and a lot of people should and will try it, I think it's really an entry drug. It's really that drug that if you haven't been in GP1s and you need some help and you've got 149 bucks a month, you can do it. And I think that's how we're going to see most of this growth. The action step I would give you around this is if you're interested in Fondeo, ask your doctor. Also ask about Royal Wgoi. Both are options. Lily is not the only game in town. All right, number two. If you're on Medicare, July 1st is your date, but read the f and print. Go watch our videos on the Medicare Bridge program. This is the biggest patient news in the call. The CMS GLP-1 bridge program launches July 1st, 2026 and runs through December 2027. We've covered this extensively. Eligible Medicare patients will be able to get GLP-1 obesity medications with their out-ofpocket costs capped at $50 a month. That's the headline. Now, here's what Lily did not tell you. First, not every Medicare patient qualifies. You have to meet specific BMI thresholds and have at least one qualifying condition like heart failure, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, pre-diabetes, or a cardiovascular history. Talk to your doctor about whether you qualify before you assume you do. I'll leave a link in the description to the videos we've made that go into detail on this. Only specific medications and specific formulations qualify. The eligible drugs are Fondeo, WGO, and the Zepabound quick pen only. The single dose vial and single dose pen versions of Zepbound are not covered under the bridge program. If you are a senior on the lowest incomes already getting help with prescription co-pays through the lowinccome subsidy program, that help does not apply to the bridge. $50 a month is still real money for a lot of seniors and the usual safety net does not catch you here.

[00:05:52]There is a continuity of care trap. If you use the bridge in 2026 and 2027, you may need to switch Part D plans during open enrollment to keep your coverage going under the long-term balance model.

[00:06:06]Switching plans can have ripple effects on your other prescriptions. Rick said the government is going to quote lean hard into getting part D participation in 28. End quote. Translation, the fight to make these programs permanent is not over.

[00:06:23]If you are on Medicare, talk to your doctor in June. Ask whether you meet the qualifying conditions for the bridge program. If you do, ask which medication and which formulation will work for you.

[00:06:35]Mark July 1st on your calendar. Your doctor will need to begin submitting you on July 1st. Number three, the chart that proves everything we've been saying about pricing. This is the most important section of this video. In the United States this quarter, Lily cut prices by 7%. Volume, the number of prescriptions filled went up 49%.

[00:06:57]Total United States revenue grew 43%.

[00:07:01]They cut the price. More patients showed up and total revenue went up. Monaro sales went from $3.8 billion in the first quarter of 2025 to $8.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026. That is a 125% increase in revenue. While prices were lower, Zepbound sales went from $2.3 billion to $4.2 $2 billion, an 80% increase, while prices were lower. Now, look at the bottom line. Lily's operating income was up 142%.

[00:07:40]Net income was up 155%. Their performance margin grew by 7.4 percentage points. They did not just make more money, they made more money faster. And here's what this chart proves. The argument that drug companies cannot lower prices on GLP-1 medications without hurting the business is over.

[00:08:00]Lily lowered the prices, dramatically increased the number of patients getting treated, and posted the most profitable quarter in the company's history. All three things at once. Lower prices, more patients, higher profits. Rick said it himself on the call. Quote, "Pretty much every time we reduce pricing, we see a pretty large expansion.

[00:08:25]What does this mean for you? The next time someone tells you GLP1 medications cannot be more affordable because it would break the system, because Lily would lose money, point them to this chart. Lily's own data. And Lily's own slide deck presented to Lily's own investors says the opposite. The expense is not the problem. The price is the problem. And the price can come down. In fact, it can come down. It has come down.

[00:08:52]and everyone made billions. Now, let me translate that to your wallet, your medicine cabinet. Every time Lily made a price move, it impacted you and I.

[00:09:03]Branded to zip bound goes down. Lily cuts their direct cash pay prices that landed in your checking account, too.

[00:09:11]Patients on the self-pay track have felt every one of these moves because it shows up in our bank accounts, not in some abstract corporate spreadsheet.

[00:09:19]when it went down $25, $50, $100, it helps. The lesson here is keep the pressure on. Prices are dropping because we forced the issue and because the company is doing better than ever while it happens. Number four, if you self-pay for Zepbound, you are now part of the majority of new starts. 45% of all current Zepbound prescriptions and 55% of new Zepbound prescriptions in the United States are self-pay. The majority of people starting Zetbound right now are paying cash because their insurance will not cover it. People like Lorraine and me and maybe people like you. If you're self-paying and you feel like you're doing this alone, you're not. The cash pay community is the largest group of new patients on this medication.

[00:10:03]We're not the exception. We are the rule. And this number is the receipt we hand to every employer and every insurance company that claims demand is not real. The demand is so real that more than half of new patients are pulling out their own credit cards to access treatment. The demand is so real because these medications work. The challenge of this demand is that our insurance system and our health system has failed us. Number five, ask your employer about Lily.

[00:10:34]Number five, ask your employer about Lily Employer Connect, but understand its limits. Lily launched a platform this quarter called Employer Connect that gives companies a new path to offer obesity coverage to their employees with transparent pricing and flexible cost sharing. If you work at a company that does not currently cover JLP1 medications for obesity, ask if they have looked at Lily Employer Connect.

[00:10:58]But understand what this is and what it's not. This is Lily trying to sell their drug directly to employers who are not covering it through traditional insurance. That's a real workaround for patients with no other option. It is not the same as actual insurance coverage.

[00:11:12]The 2026 enrollment cycle is closed, so any change at your employer would not take effect until 2027. Rick said something on this call I want every patient to hear. 70% of adults have overweight or obesity and are potential candidates for these medications.

[00:11:28]And we know that despite the fact that it could be one of the most valuable health care interventions available, it's the last one we see. So, it's easier to say no to. The CEO of Eli Liy just told investors that obesity care is the last thing insurance covers and the easiest thing to deny. That is the company that makes the medication, saying it out loud.

[00:11:51]Use that when you write your HR email.

[00:11:54]Email your HR department this week. Use the words Lily employer connect. Number six, if you're watching from outside the United States, your turn's coming. The international market for these medications grew 77% in the first quarter. Lily has found Deo regulatory submissions in more than 40 countries.

[00:12:12]Rick said directly, "There are over 1 billion people around the world with obesity and related conditions that can be helped by taking an incretin like Fondo. If you're in Canada, the UK, Brazil, Korea, or anywhere, Mangaro has already launched. Expect Fondo to follow on an accelerated timeline. Lily is positioning this pill as their global play because pills are easier to ship, store, and distribute than injectables.

[00:12:38]The international rollout is already in motion. Number seven, the Achieve 4 trial is good news, but read it carefully. I get this question almost every week. Are these drugs actually safe long term? The achieve four trial is the longest foundo study to date. It compared to insulin glorine in patients with type 2 diabetes and obesity who are already at higher cardiovascular risk.

[00:13:04]The results 16% lower risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, 23% lower risk on the broader cardiovascular measure. And in a pre-planned analysis, all cause death was 57% lower in the Fondo group. Now, the caveat that matters, the all cause death finding came from a pre-planned analysis that Lily itself notes was not statistically controlled for multiple comparisons.

[00:13:31]That means it is a strong signal, but not a definitive conclusion. It needs more data to confirm. Do not walk into your doctor's office saying, "Fondeo cuts death in half." Walin saying achieve four showed cardiovascular benefit and a promising mortality signal that needs more research.

[00:13:51]What we can say with confidence is there was no liver safety signal. 16 and 23% reductions in cardiovascular events held up. Bring this study up with your doctor if cardiovascular risk is part of your conversation.

[00:14:05]Number eight, the one everybody loves.

[00:14:07]Redatride is the medication a lot of you have been waiting for. If trappite is giving you good results but not the results you were hoping for, read a true is the next chapter. It's a triple agonist meaning it works on GLP1 GIP and glucagon receptors all at once. Tzepide, the active ingredient in Mongjaro and Zeppbound is a dual agonist. Retatrutide adds a third mechanism. The transcend T2D1 trial reported A1C reductions up to 2% and weight loss averaging 11.1 to 16.6 kg in patients with type 2 diabetes.

[00:14:45]That's 25 to 37 pounds in people with diabetes where weight loss is historically the hardest.

[00:14:53]Discontinuation due to side effects was 5% or less across all dose arms. The bigger readout is coming. The triumph one obesity trial is expected to report later this quarter. That is the trial in people with obesity but without diabetes and that is the one that will tell us if retoide really is a step beyond tracepide. The full picture will come at the American Diabetes Association meeting in June. The early data is very exciting and Lord knows everybody's talking about it. We will cover the Triumph 1 results on this channel the day they drop. Subscribe and turn on notifications so you do not miss it.

[00:15:31]Number nine, a Laura linen tide opens a nonGLP-1 door. This one is personal for a lot of viewers. Some of you have written to me saying you wanted to try GLP-1 therapy but the nausea was unmanageable or the gastrointestinal side effects took you out. Laurelinotide is not a GLP-1. It is a selective amaline receptor agonist. Different mechanism, different side effect profile. Lily just kicked off four new phase three programs for a lower leninotide including obesity, sleep apnnea, knee osteoarthritis pain and an add-on study for patients already on incretin therapy who need more. Here's the clear perspective. Phase three means the drug is years away from approval.

[00:16:13]The earliest phase 3 obesity trial is expected to complete in 2028. So a laurelinetide is hope on the horizon, not a near-term option. But the future of obesity treatment is not one drug.

[00:16:26]It's a menu. It's a portfolio. And Dora linenide is the first serious option in development for patients whose bodies say no to GLP1s. And our final one, number 10, the Zepbound quick pen is finally here. And here we have it. If you've lived through the shortages, the pharmacy runarounds, the half empty boxes, the auto injectors that never seem to be in stock at the right dose, the multid-dosese quick pen is now available. One pen, a full month of medication.

[00:16:55]It's not a clinical breakthrough, just a quality of life upgrade. One important note, the Quick Pen is the only Zetbound formulation eligible for the Medicare Bridge program. Here's where I land on this call. Eli Liy just posted one of the largest quarters in their company's history. 19.8 billion in three months.

[00:17:16]Profits up 156%. The stock jumped 9% and at the same time 55% of new zetbound patients in this country are paying for it themselves. About half of GLP1 users say these medications are difficult to afford. Medicare coverage actually went down in 26 with only 13 states covering these medications, down from 16 the year before. Here's the gap nobody on the earnings call talked about. The science is incredible. The pipeline is real and the access is broken in ways that are getting worse for some patients while getting better for others. If you're on Medicare, July 1st is your day. If you're on Medicaid in a state that just dropped coverage, this earnings call did nothing for you. If you're self-pay like us, you're part of a growing majority that the system treats like an exception.

[00:18:06]You've got cash. We'll take it. We're not worried about you. But that chart on slide seven changes the conversation forever. Lily cut prices more patients showed up and they made the most money in the company's history. The argument that affordability would break Lily is dead. We have the receipts now. Rick said it best himself and I'll quote him again. In some future year we'll look back and say we got there but it's going to be more incremental progress quarter on quarter. End quote. Incremental.

[00:18:42]That's the word the CEO of Lily used.

[00:18:45]Incremental is fine if you're an investor. Incremental is brutal if you are a patient who has been writing checks for your own treatment month after month for years. If you're a patient who has been choosing to buy your medication and not gas in your car or food on your table. So, here's what I want you to take away. The pipeline is real. The medications are getting better. Prices are coming down because patients pushed back and the data on safety keeps getting stronger. But none of that lands in your hands automatically.

[00:19:18]We have to advocate. We have to ask our doctor about new options. You need to mark July 1st on your calendar. If you're on Medicare and hope to be on the bridge program, that's the date it opens.

[00:19:31]And make sure to read the fine print on all the programs.

[00:19:35]The system is not going to hand this to us. Reach out. Tell people you care.

[00:19:41]Tell people what matters to you.

[00:19:44]Loren and I have been reaching for it the whole way. So have you. If this breakdown helped you, do me one favor.

[00:19:52]Drop a comment below and tell me which of these 10 points matter most for your situation. Are you self-pay like us?

[00:19:58]Waiting on the Medicare bridge in July trying to get your employer to add coverage? Holding out for red a true tide? I read every comment and your questions shape what we cover next. Hit the like button if this helped.

[00:20:11]Subscribe and turn on the bell so you catch the Triumph One readout when it drops and so you do not miss the next earnings call from Viking and over Nordisk that will tell us where obesity treatment is going in the future. I'm Christopher Durham and this is the downsized.