This video demonstrates a systematic approach to stock selection using intrinsic value calculations, where the investor analyzes 9 stocks (Palantir, Ferrari, S&P Global, AutoZone, O'Reilly, Shopify, Arista Networks, and ServiceNow) by examining key fundamentals including revenue growth rates, profit margins, P/E ratios, and share buybacks to determine fair valuations and identify potential investment opportunities with appropriate margins of safety.
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20 Stocks I'm Buying Now (Part 2)Añadido:
Hello everybody, welcome back to another valuation investing video. And today in this video, I'm be going over 20 stocks that I'm buying now, and this is part two of the series. So, in the last video, I went over seven stocks that I wanted to buy that were in my portfolio, and four others that I'm wanting to buy but haven't bought yet. And in this video, I'm going over nine stocks that aren't in my portfolio that I haven't talked about yet that I do want to add to the portfolio, and I'll be showing you guys where I would want to buy these stocks, where my trend value calculations for them lie. So, with that being said, guys, the first stock that I want to buy at some point in the future is going to be Palantir. And I know a lot of people in the comments, especially value investors, aren't going to be fond of this investment, especially right now, but I still think Palantir, honestly, could be a good investment for the future. I just need the right price for it, and I'll be talking about that going ahead in the future. But first, I believe Palantir is a great business overall, a great software AI company that basically declutters data, especially for military operations, for the government, and also they are starting to get into the commercial segment, which has really boosted their business going ahead in the future. I think that this is a great company to invest in, personally, and I want to show you guys why and how good of a company this is in terms of their fundamentals, it's insane. So, if we take a look at Palantir on forecaster.biz, guys, look at here. Look at the PE ratio. The PE ratio, as you can see, is actually at a low for ever since they started making money, since they weren't always profitable, but still look at this PE ratio. A 142 PE ratio is pretty high.
And what I mean by that, if you take a look at the market average is about 25.
So, Palantir right now is trading at almost five times the S&P 500, at six times the S&P 500 average, sorry. Um that is a huge valuation. However, Palantir is also growing insanely fast. If we take a look at the financial statements for Palantir, look at this revenue growth, guys. They are growing 56% in their past year. If we take a look at the quarterly numbers, they are re-accelerating.
They're accelerating ever since 2023, going from 12% growth to 84% growth year-over-year. Guys, and if we take a look at the net income, the net income is also pretty insane, guys. They are growing hundreds of percent in terms of their net income. So, they're accelerating that revenue at fast rates and really becoming more efficient in terms of how much money they're making.
And the thing I do like about this, guys, even though the valuation, like I said, 142 PE ratio right now is very high, if you compare it to some other companies trading at this PE ratio, the fundamentals are a lot better. Say if you take a look, I don't know, say Tesla. I know Tesla is insanely overvalued, guys, but the PE ratios are pretty similar, and actually the PE ratios for Teslas are is actually higher. So, even though the that Palantir these metrics are insanely high, the price to sales are insanely high. Right now, how much sales did they have? 5 billion. The market cap right now, let's see, how big is this market cap? And as you can see, the market cap's 328 billion. That's almost like 80 times sales. That is an insane valuation. That is almost unheard of. But, you know what's also unheard of? Re-accelerating growth every single quarter to 80%. It's insane, and I don't see it slowing down anytime soon, since it's a subscription-based model, pretty much. And they are really accelerating. That's what I love about this company. The only thing I don't like is the shares outstanding increasing over time. But, with a company accelerating so fast their growth, then it's perfectly fine to me, and I like that. So, this right here looks very good for Palantir going forward. The one thing I want to show you guys is the commercial segment. If we take a look at the commercial segment, this is what I think's really helping grow the business. As you can see, the government business continues to grow over time, but the commercial segment really has been outperforming, and that's why it's been doing so well. The RPO is also insanely growing in the past quarter.
So, that is very good for Palantir going forward, and let's take a look at the intrinsic value calculator for this company. Okay, guys, so taking a look at Palantir, these are my assumptions for the next 5 years. 30% revenue growth, P/E ratio of 70. For this growth rate, they definitely deserve a high premium.
If you're growing 20-30%, you should be in that upper of the double-digit range of P/E ratios, just because of how fast it grows. Because I've done the math on this, and we can take a look at that on the Google sheets I have of what P/E ratio is fair for the next 5 years to see what outcome could happen, how much you actually get from the company going forward, determining the growth rates compared to the P/E ratio.
And guys, taking a look at revenue growth and P/E ratio average. So, I did the calculations based on the exponential compounding growth effect for the next 5 years. And this is around what I got for the P/E ratio average per the growth numbers. Obviously, this isn't exact because determining on the moat of the business, if they're going to continue to grow after that, really depends on the P/E ratio of the future.
But, here's what I have. As we see, 0% revenue growth, I get an average P/E ratio of 7. As we keep getting higher, the 20 P/E ratio is in that 9% growth rate, which I normally do. When we get to 25% though, guys, that's a 70 P/E ratio. And at 30%, I'm putting 70. It is a little bit lower than what I'm expecting, but you have to keep in mind the chances are this company can't grow 30% in the future after the next 5 years. It's going to have to decelerate at some point. So, the P/E ratio, it's going to be hard if you want to really get a good valuation and pay a 70 times P/E ratio in five years from now. It's going to be kind of rare for that to happen. That's the only thing that's worrying me. But, if I press calculate the intrinsic values here for Palantir, we still get an actual decent return, 8.9%. It's not bad. I do think I would want a little bit more margin of safety with this company in terms of how fast it's growing. And I've said in past videos, I think if it gets like under $100, I might have to add a position. I know a lot of value investors think Palantir is the most overvalued company out there. I really don't think it's as overvalued as people are saying. When it was at 200 or so, yeah, that was insanely overvalued. But, now when we're near the $100 range, it doesn't look too crazy. And that's why it's on my watch list and I'm willing to buy in the future, very soon actually.
Now, the next company that I want to buy in the future, this is going to be a car company. And I know it sounds crazy, especially for most people, that a value investor and and as I said in past videos, I don't really want to invest in this type of industry. Normally, the industries I don't like investing is apparel brands, uh car brands, airlines, cruise lines. Those type of brands, there's a lot of expenses involved. But, this one car company is a great car company in terms of their fundamentals. And this is going And they also have a very good moat, I personally believe, even though it's a brand moat.
I don't love brand moats. I still think they have a pretty good moat. And this is going to be Ferrari, guys. Ferrari, I believe, is one of the best car companies out there if you want to invest in because of their margins and how good the growth is coming from this company. A lot of people don't know this about Ferrari. If we take a look at the P/E ratio for Ferrari, the only problem I do have is that it's trading at a pretty high premium. As we see, we're trading at a 35 P/E ratio. For a car company, it's pretty insane. But, the one thing is this car company isn't like every other car company. Look at this growth these growth numbers. They're growing pretty decent, 10 plus percent each year. These quarterly numbers also look pretty decent. They are decelerating though a little bit. That's why the stock has been tanking. That is one thing to be worried about, and the net income hasn't been growing as much either. So, it's a little worrisome in the upcoming years, personally. But, I still think that the moat of this company is decent. Also, look at the shares outstanding. They are buying backs some shares, and I really do like Ferrari because once again, look at the net income they made in their past um annual report, about 1.6 billion. What's their total revenue, guys? 7 billion dollars. They have a 15 20% profit margin. That's almost unheard of for a car company, and that's what I really like about Ferrari, honestly. I think they have a decent moat in terms of the car company business, and I think just the brand of this company, and of good consumer discretionary business, is Ferrari. If the economy's doing good, a lot of rich rich people want to buy Ferrari. So, I think this could be a decent addition to a portfolio if you want to diversify it a little bit. Let's take a look at the intrinsic value calculations I have for Ferrari. So, taking a look at Ferrari, here's my assumptions going ahead for my intrinsic value calculator. 10% revenue growth, 24 24 future PE ratio, 22 future 22% future profit margin, and they're buying back at 1%. When I press calculate for Ferrari, guys, this is what I get from the company. 4.8% return. Looks a bit overvalued from today. So, if I wanted to buy this company, it would have to probably be in less than 200, honestly.
Let's see. Yeah, probably $200 is where I'd want to buy Ferrari, personally. So, at today's price, it looks overvalued, but I really want to buy this business.
It looks like an interesting company, and I really like the profit margins of this company. If I want to get in a consumer discretionary side of my portfolio. So, this looks interesting in terms of that, but right now it looks overvalued. The next company that I want to buy is going to be one that you've probably heard of and might not even know it's a company. This going to be S&P Global and if you know the S&P 500 is actually run by this company. They have the index. What this company does is basically they run indexes and also they have a lot of certain things they do. They have credit ratings and stuff like that. So, that's what the company does. They're a data and stock exchange type of company and I really like this company because of the moat this company has. A lot of people in the finance industry will use this company for their services and have recurring subscriptions for this company for data coming from S&P Global. So, that's what I like about this company. Let's take a further look at S&P Global. Take a look at the past 10 years for S&P Global.
Once again, this company is trading at a little bit of a high valuation that I don't love. Like Ferrari, it is trading at about average to above average from its past. We take a look at the fundamentals though, this is what I really love about S&P Global. It's continuous growth rates over time. It's very steady near 10% growth rates from the revenue. Also, the net income continues to grow over time. This company is just a very stable predictable company going forward. I really like that in the moat around this business is huge that people don't really realize and that's why I want to invest in this company. If we take a look at the shares though, they actually really increase shares as we can see during 2022. I think they acquired some company or something to dilute shareholders, but since then they've been buying back a lot. So, let's take a look at my intrinsic value calculator and see what I get for this company.
So, here we have S&P Global's assumptions going forward. 10% revenue growth, future P/E ratio of 25. As we can see, I do have the PE ratio a little bit higher than normally I would for a 10% growth because of the moat around S&P Global is so huge. The customer base is so sticky that if you are using the data from S&P Global, there's no way you're switching it. And most finance people in the industry have to use this S&P Global data to be successful. Future profit margin 30% and shares outstanding, they really buy back a lot of shares, which I like about this business. And if I press calculate, guys, I actually get an 11.6% return from today's price. So, it doesn't look too bad at right now. Um if I want to buy this company, I think I have to put this in my watch list at about $375.
So, I need to be more aware of this company. I actually didn't realize it was this close to a buy price. So, I'm going to put that on my watch list at 375. Hopefully, it gets down that price because I'll definitely want to buy into S&P Global. Now, the next two companies are going to be similar to Visa and MasterCard in terms of what I believe to be almost a duopolistic type of industry. So, this is going to be I know this is going to be a shocker to a lot of people. It's a boring business, but it is very recession-proof, and these companies continue to outperform the market like it's nothing because of how good they are at buybacks and just returning a lot of money to shareholders. This is going to be a crazy pull from for you guys. This is going to be AutoZone and O'Reilly AutoParts. So, if you don't know what these companies are, these are just straight-up brick-and-mortar type of stores where they sell auto parts. These companies are insanely recessionary resilient because no matter what, you're going to have to get auto parts, whether a car breaks down or whatever, whether you're not you're in a Great Depression or in the best economy ever. So, that's one thing to take a look at with this company. They're in a very, I would say, resilient type of industry that if you want to add a more staple to your portfolio, these look like interesting companies. And I've always been wanting to buy it, especially O'Reilly stock, but I haven't yet got to a price where I'd be willing to buy. And I'll be showing you guys those valuation calculations. So, taking a look at both O'Reilly and AutoZone, here's their revenue numbers. And guys, they're just a very stable company going forward, even during times of bad economic times.
As we can see, they continue to grow pretty well. Not any crazy numbers here, growing say 5 to 8% each year, but nonetheless, it's consistent growth. The other thing I love about these companies here, guys, is they are very similar in terms of the growth numbers and their buybacks. Look at these buybacks from AutoZone. They're buying back so many shares each year. That's what I really like about this company. With AutoZone and O'Reilly, we can take a look at O'Reilly as well with these buybacks, guys. Look at these buybacks from this stock. Let's see right here. So, O'Reilly is buying back a lot. As you can see here, this is from the stock split, so don't worry about that too much. But look at the quarterly numbers.
They're buying back a lot. Let's say look at the past 5 years. They've bought back nearly I don't know, 25 million each year shares. And O'Reilly Oh oh I mean, AutoZone also buys back a lot. So, these companies are very good at buying back shares, which I love. As a mature company like them that isn't going to be able to grow a lot in terms of maybe having other product revenue streams, this is definitely good in terms of shareholder return. And the reason for this is look at the stock price, guys.
Look at the stock price of both these stocks. The past 10 years, O'Reilly's up 431%.
AutoZone, guys, look at how much they're up, too.
AutoZone is up a whopping Look at 353%.
Both these companies are outperforming the market by a huge margin, and most people won't even know that. If you just said O'Reilly or AutoZone, they'll think it's a boring company to invest in. But, I'm here to tell you these companies are are very good. The management is very good in terms of how to actually get good shareholder returns in terms of the revenue growth, the net income growth, and the buybacks are huge for this company. So, here's are my assumptions for O'Reilly, then I'm going to do AutoZone. O'Reilly, I'm assuming 7% growth, 20 PE ratio, 14% profit margin, buyback 3 and 1/2 %. Here's the problem though, I get 1.4% return from today.
These stocks do look overvalued. Look at the PE ratio right now. 30.81 PE ratio for this company is very hefty. Growing at 7% or so each year, that's a lot. And if we take a look at where I'd want to buy, I'll say $50 per share. And is that going to happen? I highly doubt it, but I just don't want to buy a company that I don't think it's going to get great returns for the future.
I need to get a good margin of safety, and right now it's definitely not looking like it, at least for O'Reilly.
But, let's take a look at AutoZone.
Taking a look at AutoZone, guys, these are my assumptions. So, they're actually growing a little bit less than O'Reilly.
So, I'm putting 6% growth, 18 PE ratio, 12% profit margin, but they do buy back a lot more. If I press calculate intrinsic values, I have a feeling we're going to get about the same exact return. As we can see here, we actually do get a slightly better return for AutoZone. Makes sense. They're trading at a a pretty low PE ratio compared to O'Reilly.
O'Reilly's trading at a 30-plus PE ratio. AutoZone's trading at under 25, so that makes sense. Where I'd want to buy this company, let's say $2,500.
Um maybe that would be a decent price to buy this stock. I'd say $2,200 would make me interested in AutoZone if we got to that level, because at $2,200 I'd make about a 14% return. So, from today, both these companies look pretty overvalued, but they are great companies to look at, especially if these stocks fall. I want to pick some up. The next stock that I'm going to be taking a look at that I want to buy at some point in the future is going to be Shopify. I believe Shopify is a great software business, even though there is some concerns over software businesses, especially like Shopify in terms of AI taking it over where you can just build a website. I think it's a lot different with Shopify. It's not just a website builder. Shopify is a website builder combined with say you can track all your storage, all your orders, all your customers. It's basically a vertically integrated system for any business out there to track everything based off their business. So, it's not just a website builder, it's a lot more and I personally use Shopify for my merch. So, I think Shopify is definitely an interesting company in terms of that, but they are trading at a very hefty valuation today. So, let's take a look at that. And as we can see with Shopify stock, guys, look at this PE ratio over the past say 3 years. Right now, we're trading at a 108 PE ratio. So, we're trading at a pretty hefty valuation, especially compared to the stock market.
We're trading at about four times the stock market valuation, but one thing that is good. Look at the fundamentals of this business, guys. Look at these growth numbers. They're growing 30% this this past year. Quarterly numbers, they are actually re-accelerating since these lows in 2022, growing 34%. So, they're growing pretty fast, very fast actually, and the only problem I have though, guys.
This is the problem. Shopify just can't seem to be a very good profitable company.
That's my big concern with this stock going forward. In terms of the profitability, I need to see them start become more profitable and not have as many expenses. That's the one thing I don't love about this company. Here's the thing though. Look at these operating in the operating income versus the net income. So, you have to dig deeper into these companies. Looking at the net income, you see that it was negative this past quarter, but the operating income was actually positive.
So, the operations of the business are at least profitable, and that's a good thing. The other thing I like to look at when a company is say barely profitable, is the free cash flow. We take a look at the free cash flow, guys, the free cash flow is looking pretty good. So, honestly, I think Shopify is going to be very close to being a profitable company, and that makes me want to invest this company more. I think they're going to start become very profitable and become an explosive business in terms of their net income, but it's going to be hard to get a true intrinsic value calculation because we don't know the profit margin that this company will be at in the future. So, here are my assumptions for Shopify going ahead in the future, guys. 20% revenue growth. I think this is definitely achievable, especially since it's a a subscription-based company, and a lot basically any small business that's online probably uses Shopify like me. Future P/E ratio, I'm going to put 45. That's about in line with what I would expect for a company growing 20% like Shopify. Future profit margin, I am upping it. Right now, it's about 10%. I expect them to get to 15%, and analysts actually expect them to get to near 20% in the next 5 years. So, maybe I'm a little bit low. If I press calculate the intrinsic values here for Shopify, guys, this is what we get. A 6.3% return, not too bad from today's price, but where I would want to buy this company would definitely be at least under $100. I would want to buy this company probably less than $80 personally. This P/E ratio could be low, and the profit margin could be low, but personally, I do want a good margin of safety, especially with a company like this going ahead in the future that may have some uncertainty with AI, but I don't think there's much going on there in terms of AI taking over Shopify. But, that's my assumption with Shopify going forward. I definitely do want to own this company. It looks interesting, just once again, a little bit overvalued. The second to last stock that I want to buy, guys, this is going to be Arista Rain I used to own this company. When the stock fell a bunch and sadly, this is one of my biggest mistakes. I bought this stock at about $70. I bought a lot of shares. It was one of my largest positions and I sold it near break even. And the stock got up to $180 or something and yeah, that was my biggest mistake, guys. I would have made a lot of money, but I still want to own this company in the future if we get to a good valuation, guys. Um taking a look at Arista Networks, guys. Let's take a look here. So, looking at the P/E ratio of Arista Networks, this is what it's looking like. Right now, they're trading at about a 47 P/E ratio. And if you don't know what Arista Networks does, they essentially make the technology for data centers. So, this company I'm surprised isn't getting more demand as of right now. Here's the thing though, in the future, this could potentially tamper off as AI demand slows. So, that's something to keep in mind with Arista Networks, but nonetheless, they have had huge returns. Look at this. The past 10 years, they're up 3,000 plus percent. So, this company's doing very good. Also, look at the fundamentals. I know these fundamentals are insane from this company. They're growing 20 plus percent each year.
Quarterly, they grew 35% year-over-year.
Net income, guys, look at this net income. It's just continuous growth from this company, 25%. So, Arista Networks, once again, a great company here. Let's take a look at the intrinsic value calculations.
So, taking a look at my assumptions, guys, for Arista Networks, I'm assuming 18% revenue growth, future P/E ratio of 35, 38% profit margin, and 1% dilution of shares. And when I press calculate the intrinsic values, guys, I get a 9.6% return. This looks very interesting at today's price and these are kind of conservative numbers, I believe. Um analysts are potentially expecting 20 plus percent revenue growth. So, this looks pretty interesting from today's price. Honestly, if the stock got to say $110, $120, I would have to look more into this company. So, I'm once again, I'm going to add this stock to my watch list at that price. Okay, guys, this is the final stock that I'm going to be buying out of the 20 stocks and I've made multiple videos on this company.
This is going to be one that has been getting hit a lot lately and it's going to be service now and what this company is it's a software company. Basically what they do is just IT solutions.
That's the main thing and also basically helps these companies get more organized. That's what service now does.
So let's take a deeper look into service now. Why I think this company is very good and why I think it could be a decent buy today and why I want to buy it in the future. If we take a look at service now guys on forecaster here, look at this. Right now we're trading at a PE ratio of 55. This is one of its lowest PE ratios ever, but look at the stock price. The past year we're down 52%. This is insane performance from the stock. It is tanking. But if we take a look at the fundamentals guys, nothing is really changed from this company.
They continue to grow at very fast paces. Even though it's slightly decelerating every single year, they're still growing 22% revenue growth. If we take a look at the net income guys, this is where it was kind of a problem in this past report was the multiple the profit margins weren't growing as fast as they wanted. We take a look at the operating income too, it wasn't growing as fast as they wanted. So that is one issue with this company that investors why the stock fell 20 plus percent and by the way that's my most viewed video over 10,000 views. But that is the main reason for this company kind of falling a decent amount was because the net income numbers weren't exactly where they wanted. They wanted a bigger beat for that. So that is the problem with service now, but I do definitely expect them to ramp up these profit margins and become a much more efficient company in the future and that's what analysts expect also. And with that being said with my intrinsic value calculator, here are my assumptions for service now in the future. I'm going to go with 15% revenue growth. I expect them to continue to decelerate over time.
There's definitely uncertainty in terms of AI going forward, but I don't think that's a big issue, especially with ServiceNow. A bunch of big customers, big Fortune 500 companies are locked into ServiceNow. So, I'm not too worried about that. Future P/E ratio, I'm going to go 32. Future profit margin, 20.
Right now, their profit margin is at about 13 or so. I expect them to really ramp this up in the future, and I still expect them to dilute us. Um if we press calculate, they now I get about 11.8% return. So, it looks pretty decent from today's price, but it doesn't look like the best time to buy. Um these are still pretty conservative numbers, honestly, though. You could definitely see this profit margin get to 25%. That's what analysts are expecting for this company in the future. And if that's the case at 80 at today's price, it looks good. $85, I'm going to add this to my watchlist at $85. It looks pretty interesting if we get under 85. So, that is my personal opinion for that. So, with that being said, guys, thank you for watching this video on 20 stocks that I'm buying on part two. And we went over nine stocks in this video. If you want to go check out before leaving the video, please check out forecaster.biz. The link is in the description and in the pinned comment. You can get 10% off using my code valuation10. Look at this. Monthly, it's only $33 per month. You get access to all the fundamentals, the past fundamentals. You get the overlay of the stock price with the net income or the dividends or the P/E ratio. You get access to insider transactions, key events on all companies, forecaster's AI agent, and you can cancel at any time.
So, please click the link in the description and pinned comment. Check it out. And then, guys, for watching this video, please subscribe, hit the like button. Let me know if you agree with this list or you have any changes or additions, and see you.
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