Bitcoin (BTC): The Final Crash Before The Real Bottom! (WATCH ASAP)

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-26

[00:00:04]Good day legends and welcome back to another video. I hope you're all having an absolutely fantastic start to your week. In today's analysis, we are doing a macro and short-term analysis discussing exactly what is happening for Bitcoin. Will we see a continued drop toward the downside, inevitably retesting this 4monl long uptrend spanning back since the beginning of February? And if that breaks a potential further correction to 60,000 or will the short-term support at 76K, the level we have been bouncing from for now a few days, maintain a support, facilitating a continuation back into these local highs. That is a question we are going to be focusing on today. We'll also be taking a look at our macro charts going over the monthly, the two-week, the weekly, as well as the immediate shortterm. What is expected for Bitcoin today, and the next days to come. Before we get into it, make sure to smash that like button, hit that comment button, and subscribe to the channel. We post daily videos for Bitcoin focusing on the facts, the data, the technical, and the structural information. Absolutely no hype, no BS, no emotion, just pure raw TA. If that is the kind of content you were interested in, be sure to join us on Telegram. The first link down below, 100% free for everyone. You'll get access to charts, updates, educational posts, news events, and everything you need to sustain the loop of cryptocurrency with Bitcoin and the relevant economic news. Let's jump on into the video. So taking a look at Bitcoin, we can see on the short term, we have continued to see this upward chop and grind pushing up into this larger range of resistance sitting between around 77.7 to 78.5K.

[00:02:17]We have seen a breakdown of a very shortterm 30 minute uptrend spanning back from this local low. You can see if we draw that in, we have seen the recent breakdown of this trend line. Whether or not that breakdown will sustain is going to be something we're going to be looking at today. We have with that breakdown seen a negative momentum shift, but it does appear to be slightly invalid invalidating on the short term, telling us again there's a lot of indecision in this market. Even if we're seeing these trends break, the uptrend lose and the RSI breakdown, we're still seeing a little chop. And of course, if we're looking at the context of the price action over the past, I'd say 2 days now, ever since that announcement from Trump that they're moving towards another peace deal, we have seen a little bit more indecision and we have seen a little bit more sporadic short-term chop for Bitcoin. And that is likely going to continue particularly for the rest of this week until we get more of a understanding of how that is going to develop and what end result will come from that supposed peace deal.

[00:03:22]Moving to the market data, 24-hour volume is very low. We're only at 120 billion. Of course, yesterday was a holiday for America. So, that definitely contributed to the lower volume environment which facilitated more chop and indecision. Volume still quite low, down 5%, liquidations 150 million. So, again, very low, down 30%, nearly split evenly between longs and shorts. Moving over to the DXY, not too much happening here. We did drop a little bit here for the DXY. moving down from that 50 EMA around about 30 cents. This was as a result of course that peace deal came into effect. It came into announcement.

[00:04:00]Will it actually come to fruition? Will it be shut down again? Who knows? It is likely going to be shut down. But of course, anytime we see bullish news, anytime we have bullish news on the weekend moving into the weekly open, we generally see the markets open up green and the DXY come back down. So whether or not that was manipulation and an attempt to push the markets higher, whether or not it is going to play out again, who knows? Absolutely who knows.

[00:04:26]Everyone's in the dark. Um it is more likely than not not going to play out.

[00:04:30]But regardless of what happens, the market will still deem it to be bullish.

[00:04:34]And if we look at the S&P 500, it has opened up relatively green and start the week pushing up into a new all-time high. We do have some warning signs here for the S&P. Of course, we have broken above our prior local high, but we have not seen a continuation into new highs for the daily RSI, suggesting potential exhaustion on this rally. Meaning at the moment, the risk of this printing a deviation setup. As you know, we trade deviation setups a lot on this channel, which is essentially we see a break of a prior local high, we see a bearish divergence, and we see the candle close back below the high. that will print a deviation and that would likely result in a correction back into these lows potentially back to the 50 EMA. So there's a chance we are creating a local top here again with this deviation but we are watching that very closely. That is it guys. Let's jump over to Bitcoin.

[00:05:30]Before we do, we do want to discuss Bit Unix for just a moment. If you interested in supporting the content we make on this channel and you like the analysis we provide to you and you want to support me making it, go ahead and sign up to BitGet, Bit Unix, and Bingx.

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[00:05:48]You'll get a lifetime trading fee discount of 15% off all your trading fees. And of course, you'll get access to our exclusive monthly promotions we run on this channel. This is the only YouTube channel that has monthly promotions at the amount of which we have. Last month we gave away over $40,000. This month we have up to $120,000 up for grabs. All you need to do to get access to this every single month is sign up with the link down below to Bit Unix and use that exchange. Whether or not you've signed up already or whether or not you are a new sign up, the moment you sign up, you'll get access to this promotion and every single future promotion automatically. So support the content, support yourself, get access to the rewards and bonuses. Click the link down below, join up, we'll see you there. Let's jump into the content. So taking a look at Bitcoin, like we've said on the short term, we have now seen that rally into this resistance. We hit that lowest point of that resistance overnight. And of course with that rally, we have now seen a shortterm pullback. We have dropped back into the 50 EMA. And if we look at that 30inut chart really quickly and we zoom in again, we have seen a breakdown of this uptrend and you can see just on that 30inut chart we're we're retesting that upper trending level as a point of resistance now. So it's pretty clear that we are challenging this point and we're we're starting to see an attempt for a continuation lower especially after printing this local top here for Bitcoin. So, if we do see this continue, it is likely we're going to be pushing all the way back down into this point of liquidity, which is sitting around 75 to 7 uh 75.5 to 75.2. That would be the bearish target if we are able to hang below these local highs. We do have a potential or we do have a valid uh rising wedge formation that has developed from these highs. Of course, when we look at that, we're validating three points on one side, at least two points on other side. We got five points to validate this rising wedge. So we do have a greater possibility of that price continuing down. The only risk here in my opinion is that the market volume is very low at the moment. We are still coming out of that holiday in the weekend. So the it is very prone to bursts of news driven volatility and very prone to uh any sort of larger and quicker moves for liquidation events. So we do have to be aware of that. But when we're looking at Bitcoin, we're going to start in the short term today. We're going to take a look at what is really happening. And what we're really watching here for Bitcoin is going to be this point of support right here. This is going to be our 74.7 or 74.8 to 75.5 support. And this level of support is probably the most important shortterm support we have for Bitcoin uh for quite a while. And the reason being if we go to the daily chart that level of support lines up perfectly with this horizontal region. And what this horizontal region represents is it represents the last line of support before we see a correction to our dynamic uptrend which is going to be the uptrending diagonal trend line spanning back since of course that level at 60,000. essentially losing this horizontal support. The next point of support for Bitcoin is 72,000, which lines up the VRPV over here, which is also lining up with that uptrending trend line. And the last time we tested that uptrending trend line was all the way back at the end of March. And of course, by retesting this trend line, particularly with the negative momentum shift, it massively increases the potential for a further pull back to 60,000 for Bitcoin. And that is why this short-term price action, this level of support is so important. The big question is is what is going to happen between these two levels? What happens here? And how does it impact the macro direction slash what would happen if Bitcoin were to actually break through this local resistance? So, let's start on the immediate short term and then build it up slowly starting on the 1 hour. As we've said already, we have got that uptrend on the RSI broken down.

[00:10:05]We've got the uptrend on the price chart represented by that falling wedge broken down. And if we do a measured move of that falling wedge pattern really quickly, the measured move is going to be 0.1 to 2 in depth. We just go ahead and take that apply to the breakdown. We can see that takes us back into that major point of support. So the breakdown of the falling wedge over here with the rejection from this local resistance is telling us the measured move is expected to take us back to retest this daily point of support yet again. And if we lose this point we are expecting further corrections. So the expectation is that we are going to see a continued correction from here. What would invalidate that move? To see an invalidation of that, we are going to have to see the price continue up through this resistance at 78.5. We can see on 78.5 and the BRPV we have this gap representing that this level 78.5 this horizontal point is a major point of resistance. If we go ahead and look at the confluence on the weekly chart with the weekly Ichimoku cloud baseline which is going to be this red line that is said sitting at 78.9.

[00:11:20]So if we go back to the short term and draw in 78.9 really quickly that is sitting just about here. So we can theoretically push as high as 78.9 and still be bearish on the daily chart.

[00:11:35]Realistically, it is more likely if we do continue higher as we start approaching that region, we are going to see corrections. And that what we said a few days ago, best case scenario for Bitcoin is that we bounce, we go as high as this region at 78.5 and then we see pullbacks. But it is likely now with the short-term rising wedge formation developing. With that breaking down, we are starting to see the weakness we would expect to see which develops from this point of resistance spill over into the price which could facilitate earlier corrections back into support. So on the short term, if we go as high as 78.5, not much changes. If we push into 78.9, we are testing a weekly resistance. But provided we remain at least underneath 78.9. And I go as far to say on the 4hour chart underneath this upper point of resistance, the expectation is still that we come back down into the support level yet again. And of course, if we retest and lose that, we are expecting further correction. So you can see here already what we're showing on the short term and what we're talking about in terms of expectations, it is leaning more towards a short-term correction and bearish. Now we look at the weekly chart here. We can see on the weekly chart we have some pretty important leading signs popping up here from the RSI to the Ichimoku cloud. And what we can see here particularly on the RSI is that we are retesting or we're just hanging above that level of horizontal support on the RSI. And to show you why this is important is if we look at when we broke out of the bare market and this officially bare market officially ended upon this candle. We saw this $67,000 candle from 16,000 to 21,000 in a week.

[00:13:24]Right? That was the end of the bare market. We broke above the baseline of the Ichimoku cloud, the red line. At the same time, we broke above the RSI, this horizontal line RSI. through the entire bull run, we remained above that RSI line until when we finally broke below it, we had confirmed an initial top, telling us that if we draw a vertical line in here, we've had this transition from a bullish phase to a bearish phase to a shortterm bullish phase again.

[00:13:59]Okay. Okay, if we go ahead and draw these lines more accurately, just really quickly shorten. Let's drag this one across to the point at which we broke uh downward. Let's go ahead and put one in.

[00:14:09]And then we broke back up. Let's put that in. You can see between these lines, a uptrend, a downtrend, a short-term uptrend. So we are seeing how the break of this RS on the weekly has directly impacted the short or sometimes macro direction of the price action depending on whether or not we remain above or then break back below the RSI line. And what we can see is that we're coming in to retest that level again.

[00:14:34]the key point of support that is going to determine whether or not the RSI bounces here or whether or not we break back below confirming a cross confir confirming another cross and thus a downtrend will be this shortterm daily support we have been discussing because if we drop back below this point the RSI will as well be dropping underneath this weekly support. So the big question and the big battle we are seeing here is between the support which also lines up with the RSI right these are the two level these levels are the same essentially right and this weekly Ichimoku cloud baseline which is this red line right we are bouncing between this is a battle zone if we lose this point here we are going lower if we break this point here on the weekly we are going higher it is literally going to be as simple as that if we take a look at that weekly baseline of the Ichimoku cloud and we look at it in prior bare markets. We're going to draw vertical lines in on the monthly chart.

[00:15:38]Oh, sorry, on the macro chart really quickly with the Ichimoku cloud baseline. We're going to take a look and draw vertical lines really quickly and show you that every time we break above the baseline, you can see a break above the baseline here. We can break above the baseline here. We break above the baseline over here. after we break above the baseline every time the bottom has already been in. That was the bottom. If we take a look, that was the bottom. And if we take a look again over here, that was the bottom. It broke out after telling us that when we break the weekly close above the baseline of the Ichiman cloud on the weekly, historically it is confirmed the bottom has been in. So what that would mean is if we broke the weekly close above that baseline say next week it would mean based on historical weekly data 60,000 was the bottom. Now I want to make it very clear what I mean by that statement. I don't mean it was definitively the bottom from all metrics and all points of confluence. It is just represented as the bottom based on one historical indicator pattern. That is not enough to say that is definitively the bottom and was definitively the bottom. But it is enough to say based on the Ichimoku clown weekly historical pattern, the break of that level and the close above that level has historically occurred after macro bottoms. Will that pattern break? Who knows? Will it continue? Who knows? But it is something we need to be aware of. I personally don't believe this was the bottom. I do believe the bottom will be somewhere between 34,000 and 42,000. Like I've said for the last bloody, six, seven months since essentially the top. A lot of you watching this channel, you didn't know.

[00:17:24]We called the bottom 15.5K. We were bullish the entire time. The entire time everyone would turned bearish over here.

[00:17:30]Everyone said the bare markets. They were telling consolidation bullish. We sold a little bit 104,000. We rebought 7 uh around 76,000 on the RSI breakout. We exited again around 114,000. We eventually called the top 126,000 October 6, 2025. We've been bearish ever since. We will remain bearish. While the chart suggest since that point, our target has been down here. If you just look at the direction of Bitcoin since October 6, 2025, we turned bearish 26,000. Bitcoin dropped 52%. It is down 38%. And if we're looking at our maximum target of a 72% draw down and we look at where we are, we have dropped over half of the way towards there. We're currently sitting around about half the way there currently where the market price is. So by all means, we have done a fantastic job. Even if Bitcoin does continue up here, we've saved a lot of money and we put oursel in a position where we get to make the decision. The balls are in our court, which is the massive, massive benefit when it comes to this market. So again, weekly chart not looking fantastic. The weekly candle close insignificant. Some people are saying, I would like to seen a green a red weekly candle. This weekly candle means nothing, right? Look how small it is. It doesn't do anything. It hasn't engulfed anything. It is essentially a weekly candle of indecision. The prily candle was red. We saw a large toward the upside again suggesting we have just hit a major point of support. On the short term, we are rallying into resistance. We're seeing initial weakness develop from this resistance which is trying to spill over into a correction. It can be absorbed particularly was of a low volume environment. If that happens, we can see rallies into these points of rejections before we come back down. But the expectation will be that we are going to be coming back down regardless of what really happens over here. And of course, if we do push back into that daily level, I do not believe based on the momentum with the RSI and the weekly, I do not believe by dropping back in here, we are going to see that level defend as support again. We may temporarily see, you know, something like this, bang, bang, bang, bang. But I think it's very likely that if we drop back in here, we are going to be correcting lower and we are going to be retesting this daily uptrend. And I do still believe that the loss of this uptrend and we're waiting for it because when it happens if it happens and you know when and if you know we have to be aware that it may not but if it happens and if we do lose this uptrending support line we are very likely going to see a correction. So we're looking 65,000 which is going to be the VIPV gap here. Major support. If we lose that level I think it's game over for the bulls. I think we get that next major leg down for the bare market. So thanks for tuning in. Have a great rest of your day. I'll catch you all on Thursday.

[00:20:22]Look forward to seeing you all then.

[00:20:23]Catch you later. Cheers.