Booth provides a sharp reality check on the Federal Reserve's structural inability to curb essential inflation through interest rate policy alone. Her analysis effectively exposes the gap between central bank rhetoric and the supply-side pressures actually squeezing consumers.
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DiMartino Booth Appears on ‘Making Money with Charles Payne’ To Discuss the April FOMC minutesHinzugefügt:
Give it up for Danielle DiMartino.
[music] Danielle DiMartino Danielle DiMartino Booth All right, just moments ago the Federal Reserve releasing the April FOMC minutes. Highly anticipated. In fact, the most highly anticipated I can remember. In part, that 8-4 vote. Do you remember that, right? To maintain interest rates at current levels, but also because it could give us some insight into this uphill battle for new Fed chair Kevin Warsh. Uh we're lucky to have Danielle DiMartino Booth. She's the CEO and chief strategist at QI research.
All right, Danielle, uh you know, we covered the FOMC event live. We Our jaws dropped at 8-4. Uh couldn't wait for the minutes. What's standing out for you?
Um actually, what's standing out for me is it seems like Kevin Warsh has an even higher uphill battle than we thought he did before because a majority are now in favor of raising interest rates. They They're looking at oil-driven inflation as being stickier, if you will, than that that created by tariffs.
Um and the only other thing that really uh struck me was that there was a mention of private credit and the potential uh that that could create a a separate um let's just say cow patty for Kevin Warsh to step in. Here I am in Dallas.
Wow. Wow. You know, it's amazing. I've had in the last year and a half so many Wall Street are saying it's no big deal.
It's no big no no big deal. I can't wait to get all after the show to read it myself. Of course, who's saying right now few would envy Kevin Warsh.
He wants to do some things some revolutionary things there and he's got some things in his way. Not just the economy, but also a look for lack of a better term, politicalization of the Fed, I think.
There has been and I think that that's what we saw um come out in these minutes. Uh there's not really much that the Fed can do about what we call essentials inflation. They They have any kind of control with interest rate policy over the price of oil, over the price of food, and even the pass-through effects of fertilizers and other areas of the economy. It's It's not called This is not demand-driven inflation. This is a supply shock. And I think that even though Waller's knows that, but he is still going to have a very difficult time convincing other members of the committee that they need to be more focused on their labor mandate. We just saw what West Marine, a 58-year-old a boat company, filed for Chapter 11.
We heard just yesterday that teen hiring this summer is going to be the lowest on record in data to 1948.
And we continue to hear about firms pushing through with layoffs, and you're hearing that from retailers all across America that who are saying Home Depot just said it yesterday, "Work Our customers are concerned about losing their jobs." So, somebody's not listening, Charles, and somebody needs to listen. My question is, even if Kevin Waller's has his listening ears on, is he going to be stonewalled by a committee who perceives him as being a political patsy, even if he's right?
Right. And but then by the same token, you know, I I see some of these folks there and I feel like either they're too wedded to politics or too wedded to a sort a certain way of thinking, a certain old-school way of thinking that may not apply. Give me an example. Okay, so right now, the street is modeling for a rate hikes this year, but what what would those rate hikes do for someone whose whose biggest expense is their medical insurance, that biggest expense is auto repairs? How does a rate hike help Main Street in this environment?
It It It wouldn't, Charles, and you know that one small business after another continues to choke on high borrowing costs. The only thing that raising rates would do is put more small businesses out of business. We're talking about America's largest employer, and the last thing that we possibly could need for the housing market right now or the auto market, you name it, given how high um credit card delinquencies are, given how quickly the tax refunds faded into higher prices at the gas pump. The last thing Americans need right now is a rate hike.
Hey, uh of course before I let you go, investors kind of were rooting for Warsh, right? Going to come in, maybe be accommodative if he can. Uh but the you point out the history shows that there's a decline an average decline of 11% that greets the new chair one way or the other. Uh it looks like it's going to be hard to avoid that this time, right?
It It looks to be that That is the case.
Again, nobody talks You do. A lot of people do, but there's not enough discussion about the trouble brewing underneath the surface in private credit. And we continue to see bankruptcies flow through in in places not [clears throat] just software.
Charles, the number one area for private credit insolvency today is healthcare companies. So, this is not going away anytime soon, and we must worry that there's going to be a parallel with what happened with J. Powell in the beginning of his term and whether or not Kevin Warsh is also going to be hit with a liquidity crisis coming out of the credit markets.
>> Ay, ay, ay. Danielle DiMartino Booth, you do the best. Thank you so much.
Appreciate it.
Thank you, Charles. All right.
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