Market Bounce Ahead? Ambareesh Baliga Sees Recovery After Volatility Shock | Volatility Explained

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]Ambrish, let me bring you into the conversation. How are you viewing the market? What are you doing?

[00:00:07]>> Uh in fact, the way I look at the markets is I don't see too much of a downside.

[00:00:11]Basically because there's still a hope.

[00:00:14]And that hope is quite high.

[00:00:17]Uh that there would be some sort of an accord between Iran and US.

[00:00:22]And I mean as far as I'm concerned, hopefully by June 14th, which is which I think is President Trump's birthday, I think that before that they should be able to sign off. So in case that happens, I think it'll be very very positive for the markets.

[00:00:36]Uh we'll see the oil coming down.

[00:00:38]And at the same time, I think the rupee also can appreciate from the current levels. So which should be positive.

[00:00:46]And I mean most of the investors and analysts have discounted that the next two quarters may not be too great for the Indian corporates. So since that is discounted, the expectation also may not be too high.

[00:00:59]Uh so I mean overall, if if these things fall in place, I think monsoons is the only joker in the pack. So hopefully if the monsoon is closer to normal, not as bad as what I mean what the current forecast is, I think we should have a decent run till the Diwali or end of the year.

[00:01:18]>> Mhm. Ambrish, uh how do you look at some of the consumer companies today? Asian Paints came out with its numbers. Uh decent set of numbers, top line of 10% growth. Uh how do you look at some of the you know, construction linked companies or accessories companies?

[00:01:40]>> Uh in fact, if you're looking at something like Asian Paints, I think people were overly negative on this stock. I think it's been an underperformer for what, about 2 years plus?

[00:01:51]I mean especially after I mean below cost was launched. I mean the amount that they they were spending on publicity and marketing. And at that point of time, I think Asian Paints did the right thing of I mean, staying in the background for a while and let Birla Opus just go out and splurge. And I mean, what I have seen in the last 6 months to 9 months, I mean, the ads and all that has reduced from Birla Opus. Whereas, Asian Paints I I mean, seems to have still got its marketing and sales tactic perfectly right. And uh that's being shown in the sort of earnings which we have seen.

[00:02:28]So, it didn't make sense for Asian Paints at that time to go and counter Birla Opus. They stayed in the background and they are back. I think they have bounced back I mean, extremely well. So, I would be quite positive on Asian Paints. In fact, I mean, I have a price target of about 30 3,400. I think which should be achieved in the next 6 to 9 months because I suppose it would be more of a discovery when people are given up. And now when we see this sort of earnings, I think it'll be a new discovery for the market.

[00:02:56]>> Ambareesh, how do you uh you know, look at some of these stocks which are getting added uh to the MSCI index like a Federal Bank and Indian Bank?

[00:03:05]>> So, typically whenever any stock is being added or the weightage increased, you normally have buying happening. But despite that, today we are seeing that uh it has not really had too much of an effect on I mean, these counters uh which which shows that today's weakness is I mean, decently high because of which we have seen a correction across. And I think because of the sort of volatility which has happened because of this MSCI reject and the like like in the last couple of minutes, I believe a lot of stop losses also also have got hit. I think that's the other reason why we have seen uh the market is correcting.

[00:03:39]>> Uh metals pack is something which was the most active pack this week, Ambareesh. Uh uh what's your view on them?

[00:03:47]>> Uh metals in fact, I've been uh like positive for a while and I mean, I would be more positive on ferrous, which is a Tata Steel as well as SAIL.

[00:03:57]And in the non-ferrous, I'm I'm more comfortable with aluminum, which would be Hindalco and Nalco.

[00:04:03]>> And in the consumption pack, and HUL, Dabur, and Marico, um how do you look at that pack?

[00:04:13]>> Uh I think that would be more of a longer term because I think consumption will take a bit of a hit because of the sort of inflation which we are seeing because of the oil price increase.

[00:04:24]And, I mean, across. And at the same time, we are also expecting that there could be a possible rate hike, and not a rate cut. So, keeping all these things in mind, I think consumption to a certain extent can get affected over the next one or two quarters. So, I think one can go a bit easy on uh I mean, FMCG as well as consumer goods.

[00:04:46]>> Um Ambareesh, just hold on for a minute.

[00:04:49]We'll go to uh Ravindra.

[00:04:51]How do you look at some of the banking stocks today? I mean, we're seeing some pressure on the private sector bank, but public sector bank like SBI and others.

[00:05:02]>> No, I think in the last 18 months or so, we've seen a very good move in uh the your PSU banks. And post that, we have also seen a correction, especially in stocks like SBI. Uh but at the same time, if you see the last 2 to 3 years, the private sector banks have really outperformed.

[00:05:16]So, at this point of time, I would be more bullish on the private sector banks, especially banks like HDFC Bank, despite the sort of controversy which are there. If you're talking of the next 12 to 18 months, I mean, as an institution, I think we should see uh like HDFC Bank bouncing back. I mean, once these controversies get over.

[00:05:34]Among others, it would be ICICI Bank, Axis, and Kotak. I mean, these are these are the top private sector banks where I'll be positive. Among the smaller ones, it would be IDFC First, where again, I mean, we have seen a lot of controversy because of which we saw that fall from 90 plus levels to closer to to 60 and now at least there's some good news coming as far as I I guess it's first concerned. So, I see this stock again bouncing back to those levels of 90 95 possibly over the next 9 to 12 months.

[00:06:03]>> Holding up today, Ambarish, is the IT sector even though it has come off days high. Uh how do you look at this entire trade of IT? It was at one point in time up nearly 1 and 1/2% and it's not just up half a percent.

[00:06:18]>> I think it's a bit temporary sort of a bounce because anyway IT has been underperforming, no doubt, but I see this continuation at least for the next three to four quarters because what is said and done, the AI issue is there for sure as far as the Indian IT stocks are concerned. There would be like margin pressures going ahead. Again, the question of the auto flows whether it'll continue the way it had in the past. So, looking at all this and at the same time the sort of management commentary which has been coming, I would prefer to wait at least for the next two or three quarters before deciding whether to buy into IT or not. And even if I do, it'll be more on the midcap IT names as compared to the last cap ones.

[00:06:57]>> How does How do you think traders should look at this kind of volatility, especially when it comes to, you know, rebalancing days?

[00:07:08]>> I know, I think the sort of stop losses one should keep, I think, on days like these should be much deeper than normal because like I told you earlier, I've been hearing a lot of people I mean complaining about the stop losses getting hit. And I mean position positions getting closed. Uh so, either on days like these don't really have huge positions open or keep the like deeper stop losses because I think Monday could be completely different than what we're seeing right now.

[00:07:37]>> Do you think there will be a bounce back on Monday?

[00:07:41]>> I think so.

[00:07:44]>> Good night.

[00:07:45]>> Okay.

[00:07:46]Ambrish >> Do you think they will be bounced back on Monday given the fact that they kind >> Very difficult to say. Very difficult to say. See, it's an it's an adjustment because of the MSCI. And as I said, many of the stocks are at a 5% to 6% discount with respect to the middle spot prices. It's just that that the that disparity narrows for stock prices. And because of that, maybe the stocks which are at a discount right now, they could try and come back and you know, close the gap for themselves.

[00:08:11]There could be an individual bounce back into many of these stocks. But I'm not sure whether it'll trickle back to the entire indices. And that too, I think in the same magnitude like what the correction has been in the last 20 25 minutes.

[00:08:24]>> On the Nifty 500, you know, the top gainer for the week is a Wockhardt.

[00:08:29]Ambrish, does it surprise you? And if at all, what's your thesis around Wockhardt?

[00:08:35]What's the view there?

[00:08:38]>> In fact, I Wockhardt have not been actually very closely so but difficult for me to really give a view.

[00:08:43]>> Okay. What about some of the renewable energy plays, Ambrish? The likes of an MV, the likes of a Premier Energies, the likes of a Varrsow, still looking interesting?

[00:08:56]>> Yeah, still looking interesting at this point of time because clearly I see I mean, the focus of the government which was there till 2030 will surely get extended. I think thanks to the I mean, the sort of issues which we have faced because of the US Iran war and and the energy shock which the world has faced, I think there would be focus back on renewables at least for a much longer time than what what is being seen right now. So, something like a Varrsow, I think one should still be buying. I mean, whenever there's a correction, utilize that to buy.

[00:09:30]>> And what about the auto stocks? They've been on a tear since the GST announcement back in August.

[00:09:38]What next for these? Because you're starting to see raw material price spikes, you're starting to see now crude as well. In fact, petrol and diesel as well at the pump go up in terms of pricing.

[00:09:49]What's the view there?

[00:09:52]>> I think those who are able to shift to EV much faster. I mean, for example, we've seen Tata Motors really talking of increasing their output as far as EVs concerned. So, I think that's going to be the game going ahead because what possibly I mean, the demonetization and I mean, 2020 COVID did for online transactions. I think this energy shock will do for the EVs.

[00:10:20]Because I think that shift from IC to EVs will become much faster because of this. And going ahead, we'll clearly see the demand for EVs increasing exponentially. So, the ones who are able to shift much faster like Tata Motors, I think should do much better.

[00:10:36]>> percent higher on Tata Motors PV for the week gone by. Kunal, what's the view there?

[00:10:41]>> Yeah, so so far it looks attractive.

[00:10:43]It's been one of the you know, few very rare stocks in the auto pack which have made a good comeback. It's broken back above the 200 moving average. We you know, typically watch this level very very closely because a break of 200 DMAs generally could trigger you know, new trends into stock prices. So, we can expect that maybe similar could be the trend for Tata Motors PV. That support level of this 200 DMAs at 370 mark.

[00:11:06]So, I think we'll just probably want to keep a close eye on this you know, closest support levels for Tata Motors PV. But as of now in the last you know, 1 week 10 days, the recovery from 340 levels to 400 plus which it traded for good part today. I think indicates that we could be looking at a near term turnaround of sorts. 370 is a critical support for Tata Motors PV.

[00:11:28]>> Okay, critical support at 370.

[00:11:32]Within the metals, Ambarish, very quickly, do you still continue to like metals?

[00:11:38]>> Yeah, like I said, I'm I'm bullish on ferrous, which is the Tata Steel as well as sale.

[00:11:43]And in the non-ferrous part, I'm quite bullish on aluminum, which is Hindalco and Nalco. I mean, if you ask me about something like a Hindustan Zinc, I think it's already the run is more or less done.

[00:11:54]I think at these levels it's fully priced, so I'll not really be buying something like a Hindustan Zinc or >> Okay, Ambarish, thank you so much for coming in, giving us your perspective.

[00:12:05]We'll let you go on that note.

[00:12:08]Uh