This video presents a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin's market cycle, explaining that after the halving event, large investors typically begin profit-taking around 40 weeks post-halving, with the main correction period occurring 80 weeks after. The speaker projects that Bitcoin will correct to approximately 65,000 by June 10th, 2024, and recommends a DCA strategy starting June 1st through April 19th, 2027, with an average purchase price around 58,000-60,000. The analysis incorporates multiple indicators including MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), Z-score, and the Bull Market Support Band to identify optimal entry and exit points, emphasizing that successful trading requires proper risk management with stop-loss orders and a minimum 3:1 risk-reward ratio.
PROJEÇÃO DO BITCOIN E MERCADO CRYPTO PARA JUNHO feat @admcriptoHinzugefügt:
Hey everyone!
Let's go. He arrived, making his way into the area.
Let's see who's around. First like. Greetings, Sandro. Ireland. Ah, our friend here in Ireland, very close to where we are. S Gam Play, we're in this together, San. Good morning, our fantastic little moderator here, Luiz Fernando. Thank you, brother. Besides being a moderator, you're the kind of friend everyone should have.
live. Yay, we're in this together.
Good morning, Juliana Carrara. Let us know right away where you're watching our live stream from, because today we're going to talk about a very, very important topic. Let's see if we can get 100 people here simultaneously real quick so we can start discussing this topic, because it's a very important topic.
We're going to project not only June, but we're going to project Bitcoin, focusing on it until November, OK? So today we're going to play the role of the crazy monkey's crystal ball guru. We're going to try to show you the results of a study I've been doing, which will take me up to about October or November.
Bitcoin is at an excellent moment, especially now that we're entering June; this is when the most important point for us truly begins, okay? Meanwhile, go ahead and leave a comment! As you keep commenting, we'll quickly reach 100 people so we can start telling everyone. Beauty?
Sandro, how far do you think the hype will go at 57? It's gone up a stop. I'm holding on, man. It's already at 66. I think I already mentioned the hype there. I think it'll go up to around 80, more or less. I've already outlined this target more or less here.
Just throw in a little Fibonacci sequence and you'll find out. But I'll try to show you.
Remind me during the live stream that I'll try to show you today. Beauty. Good morning.
Good morning, Sandro. That's Monforone.
It must be Monica. It's Monica. Monica Forone. Let's go for it, Rocha. We're in this together, brother.
Good morning, Sandro. Good morning. Good morning to everyone, friends of this channel.
David, David, good morning. Come on, Sandrão.
Fortaleza is in the area. Look who's here, Fortaleza in the area. Very good. Okay, let me see here, I've already skipped over a bunch of them, I pressed the button here, see? Strength. The signs of a BTC crisis are already there, right? It's already put in some pretty nice percentages from the last peak to now.
We're going to review that today to see how we're doing. João Pessoa, Paraíba. Man, João Pessoa is really great. That 's a place I'm eyeing for investment, because João Pessoa is also experiencing significant growth in tourism there.
Governor Valadares, Minas Gerais, Vencesu Braz, over in Paraná. Good morning, Pedro. We're in this together, brother Droy. Good morning, professor from Planura, Minas Gerais.
RJI 40º should be there. How's Rio de Janeiro doing? Has it gotten colder yet? It's already cold in Rio de Janeiro.
Eh, Project Game Kings. Yeah, I'll take a look. I don't know him, brother. Good afternoon, master of masters. We're in this together.
Xston, look, look, he's already doing some DCA. Let's talk about it. That's right, Monica, we're in this together. Let's go. There are already 75 there. We're almost at 100 so we can start from there. How long have we been live? Three minutes of live streaming.
So, let's go. We'll have a Bituchuca trade today. Let's take a look at that and talk about it. Maca, Macaé, Rio de Janeiro, Bauru, we're all in this together.
Listen up, Austin Mar Martin is going to build a luxury hotel, man.
Austin Martin. Who is Austin Martin? I only know that one car, you know, the Aston Martin, or something like that. That's awesome! Okay, let's go. Let's get started with our little live stream now so we can show you, and let me share my screen here with you all. I'll even see if there's a friend I wanted to see join today's live stream, but I haven't even talked to him yet. I'll write to him here to see if he can come.
If he succeeds, I think it's interesting here. OK. Let me write to him here.
Hey, you can join the live stream today. I was even going to call Chaka, but Chaka's in Mexico, right? He's shaking his booty over there. Let's go then. Let me show you the screen here. Put it here to display this screen here.
OK. Let me see if we can start right away. Beauty. Let's go. Let's go here. Whoever got it, got it. Those who didn't catch it will catch us. Let's see if I can work on this one. I think that's how it is, right? That's how it is. That's interesting. So let's go, everyone.
Look, I'm going to quickly show you a detail about Bitcoin that we need to see, which is this: on the daily chart, let me try to zoom in so we can see, since Bitcoin touched 82,035 2035, in this region, we've started making candles with lower highs than previous highs, you see? And the bottom is lower than previous bottoms here, OK?
82.35. Then it went to 81,600, then 79, 78, 77.
Here it tried to bounce back twice at 78, then came 76, 74, 400, 742 and now 73, 72.
So we're starting to see that Bitcoin is losing momentum to reach this region around 78,000, which for me is this area, right? Well, as I've already mentioned to you, this is the zone where I believe that if Bitcoin were to break through this region of 78,700, 78,900 again, Bitcoin could return to 82. So, given what I'm seeing now, it 's getting harder every day, because we're reaching a historic moment for Bitcoin, where corrections always happen at all times.
Hey admin, admin, whenever you want to join, okay, bro? If you want to join, if you have free time, come to the live stream. No problem, brother. You are more than just part of the family.
You live in my heart.
Beauty. Anything can happen, bro. Uh, I called the doctor to see if he's coming. Hey Mota, congratulations on reaching 100,000 subscribers! You have 100,000 subscribers on that channel. I took a look at your shorts. But we're in this together, brother. That's easy, you know? That 's exactly it, the guy has to recognize it. We're in this together, brother. Let's move the ball forward, okay? Quiet.
So, let's go. So, what are we seeing now?
Historically in Bitcoin, we're entering a zone here, right? These candles here demonstrate the negotiations that occur each day and the moment of greatest negotiation, right, in the candles. So, we see here, according to the volume, the zone where there was the most trading. On May 23rd, in the 75,000 range, we had a large defense against the bulls the following day, at 76,000. And these candles are able to show us the inside of the candle. At what point did we have this price, which had the highest trading volume within these candlesticks?
OK? Today, we can already see that it's a weekend; between the day before yesterday and today, we're in a large trading range between 73,300 and 73,500, right? Because today the big trading level is at 73400.
So it already shows that we're in a period of accumulation for a movement that could occur due to the moon's trajectory, right? People like it when I talk about the moon; we're entering tomorrow when the full moon begins, which could probably give Bitcoin a little respite. Where might Bitcoin find its respite? OK. Let me grab this, I'm going to make a duplicate of this one. I'm going to grab another little chart of our Bitcoin here so we can analyze where this Bitcoin recovery might be. OK? When we look here, let me write it in my journal here, OK? Let's go play around with the daily chart here, and I'll look at your questions in a little while, OK? So we can respond there.
Ready. I'm on the daily chart. We can already see that in response to, let me remove the B Market Support Band here, which I'll talk about in a moment. So, when we look at our Bitcoin chart here, from that little peak it made earlier, at 82,700, we've already seen an 11% correction amidst the bullish momentum. Whoever got those shorts is in luck. The shorts we got here at 82600.
I still have them open here.
OK. Okay, let me see if it was this one.
I think this is the one we went into. See? 82600.
I came in here and went live. This short film was made live here with the crew. It wasn't even for the exclusive Imersão Futuros group, it was here, live, with you all. I placed a short order at 82,600, the order was executed, and now we're riding this whole Bitcoin correction. OK.
Repique. How far can this surge go now with the full moon? We can go from 75 to 76500 here. OK. I could draw a small line here and we would have the rebound here practically between the 0.50 and 0.78 zone.
For those of you who want to know where the Bitcoin rebound might be, as I've already been asked, OK? This could be the zone that Bitcoin might try to visit in this short time. Is it guaranteed that he will do it? No, because we continue to see volume falling here, and now that the price has started to fall, we were already predicting that a trap was being set because you had falling volume and rising prices. When this happens, it usually triggers a trap, and many people get stuck in this area up here. I don't know if this was the case for any of you. Those who followed me and whose work truly resonated with the people who weren't stuck there, OK? It certainly didn't get stuck at 120,000, or even 110,000, because we're tired of talking about this. OK?
So now we can have a follow-up here talking about the moon issue, right? For those who like it when I post the phases of the moon, the full moon will begin tomorrow; it will be printed here tomorrow. Here's the full moon, OK? And this full moon might give Bitcoin a little respite, right? The recent full moons have driven Bitcoin up by 9%.
We had a good increase here, of practically 19%.
During the other full moon we saw an increase of almost 17%, even during full moons. But back here we had some increases of 10%. If we respect this average 10% increase, we could reach an unexpected limit, which would be returning to 80,000.
OK? This is not an expected limit. I'd go further, wouldn't I? I would focus more on those fiber optic cables that I showed you here, OK?
Let me remove the moon here so that later people don't say I've turned into Nostradamus or that I'm showing off.
So let's go. Man, I try to do a live stream without making fun of things, but I just can't help it. I can't take it anymore. Let me go over this parallel channel again, which is our bearish flag, right? Bitcoin hasn't returned to that level yet, but this bearish flag of ours, uh, with Bitcoin's rebound to the moon, it could come here, you see what I said? The rectangle represents a retest in this middle region, right, in the middle of this channel, this bearish flag that we've been singing about in Bitcoin and that has lasted for a long time. Now, for all you Taurus folks out there, I have some good news for you, OK? I have excellent news for you. Bitcoin is holding up remarkably well during what would be considered normal market cycles.
And now I'm going to address a topic that I've been advocating for a long time. That's why I wanted to see if Dr. Crypto would join in here too, because I know he's a big advocate for the cycle, and I've promised a live stream with him. Let's see if he can get there for us. But look at this.
Oh, oh, oh. The group is awesome. Hey ADM, you're awesome, man. It's wonderful that I've respected the cycle here and talked about it. And it's because I talk about the cycle, because I believe in the cycle, that I did n't get stuck here, OK? That I dissolved, in fact, everything here. I sold everything in this pretty little area you see here. And whoever came along with us did the same, OK? Because I warned about this quite a bit.
Let's go.
What has improved in Bitcoin compared to previous cycles? OK.
What has improved?
Eh, butapocando. Just look.
Hey, doctor, wake up, kid. People are asking you for it here on the live stream. Come join the live stream! Just come in. Go ahead and put it there.
Let's go. Here's the thing, when we look at the Bitcoin cycle, I'm going to put it on the weekly schedule because now we're going to work with the Bitcoin cycle. I'm going to show you things here that I haven't shown on the channel yet. Therefore, if you are one of those who is a fan of the Bitcoin cycle, you should focus on what I'm going to show you. OK? Let's go.
Bitcoin has this region here, look. Let me see if this is it, because this is where we track the Bitcoin cycle in relation to profit-taking. Oh, Sandro, but have you already shown that? Yes, I know I've already shown this here, but now I'm going to talk about something I'm going to use, and I haven't commented on it yet, OK? I haven't commented on that yet.
Currently, we are here at the point where the profit-taking period for large investors, the long-term holders, has ended, which happens up to 80 weeks after the halving.
Let me see. Confirm.
80 weeks after Ralve, right? Ready.
Look, the pig is holding on very strongly, and it's possible that the target I mentioned around 45,000 or 40,000 won't materialize, but rather the target below 58,000 or 1,000 that we've been discussing. Therefore, my purchases will start below 58,000, OK?
I'm not going to wait until I'm 40,000, I'm going to start buying below 58,000. In response to a friend who asked if I... what's my name? If I had already started DCA. Hey everyone, if you want to comment or ask questions, go ahead and I'll start answering them shortly, okay?
So, let's go. So tell me if the live stream is going well, if everything is alright.
Look, DM saying 48 is the LTH zone, the low time high. It's LTH. What is LTH ADM? It's L. I'd even like low time high. No, low time high cannot be. Could this be the lowest point?
The background, I don't know. Then tell me, Edem, because now I'm curious. LTH, it's possible that I know about it and don't recognize it as a long-term hold. Ah, long term. I wasn't connecting the dots between garlic and bugs. That's right. I even had a chart here, I don't even know where it is anymore. Eh, from that long-term holdos. Their average price is right in that region. That's right. So let's go. Look what I find interesting here. When Bitcoin moved out of that region, we are at week 29 and we are at 28% still.
Let's look at the previous cycle. And that's where I say Bitcoin is doing very well right now, because 29 weeks ago Bitcoin had corrected by 63%. It 's not from the peak, it's from the end of long-term profit-taking by Bitcoin whales that occurs 80 weeks after the R. They start taking profits at 40 weeks, as shown in the chart here. And after 80 weeks they finish making a profit. And look, in this cycle, Bitcoin only fell 28%. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin fell 63%.
Let's look back at the other cycle, taking into account the same period here, which would be 29 weeks after the profit period ended.
Oh, 16, 22, 28, 45% in the 2018 cycle.
Let's look further back. I think I have another cycle here.
No, I'm not even showing another cycle here. This is the last cycle that shows.
Wow, I'm really focused on graphs here, man! Ah, I'm from Coin Base, I should be with the other one.
I had to be with the other one.
Let me see if the Binance one shows us further back.
Bit stamp is the best one right here.
This is all part of the research we're doing together with you.
So, look here. Cycle 2018. I want the cycle that I talked about, you know, to go back to the beginning of the year.
cycle of 2000 14 2015, OK? 1425.
In the last 28 weeks, Bitcoin was, man, in the last 29 weeks it's down 55%, OK? 55% drop. So Bitcoin is behaving wonderfully well right now. Which means that the study we did here on the Bitcoin fund, OK? In the region around 39,000, it might not happen. It might come here, at 49, 48, which is precisely the zone that the ADM mentioned regarding long-term holders, that is, the average price of those who have held Bitcoin for a long time.
OK? For those who hold Bitcoin for the long term, the current average price is 48,000. And if we're going to look at this rectangle that I showed in this study here, OK? It's exactly between 49,100 and 36,000, you understand?
But since Bitcoin is behaving wonderfully well in this current cycle, I see that we're not managing to bring the price down as much as we should already be. This is positive for the bull market, for us who sold up here. Awesome! Awesome!
I'm tired of saying this. Today I'm buying almost 30% more bitcoins than when I sold them.
And those who followed us sold here at 115,000, ending up with an average price of that, enough to buy 36% more bitcoins. Oh, you already bought it? I bought 5% when it hit 62, and I even mentioned it here on the channel.
Good, good. We're waiting, you know, brother?
We are waiting. So, what happens then?
What's going on here?
I'll show you something else here so you can understand. Let me see. I've already shown this one.
I've already shown this one here. OK.
I want to show you this other one here. It 's impossible that everything I did here has disappeared. That's not possible.
Oh, damn. Sorry, everyone.
Yes, everything I did here mysteriously disappeared. I think that's when I deleted something there.
Put it in the weekly section here.
Ah, great. Let's go. We'll do it again here. So, it's good if I do it again so I can explain to you what I was thinking. So, the first study I was showing was this. OK, man. I had the whole study ready here, man. Where?
Where did I go wrong here?
Ah, I think it was on Coin Base.
No, it was on Coin Base.
Okay, let's go. Let's continue from here. I'm going to put this study together with you guys. I just need to tweak one little thing now so you can understand this, OK? Dude, it's really important that you guys pay close attention, because I study a lot to reach these conclusions.
And that's what has allowed me to achieve the results I've achieved so far. OK? That's it, I'm studying.
So, let's go. I conducted this study in the following way so that you can understand it.
We have a region that, post-halving of the market, I'll use this again, post-halving of the market. Here we have the halvings, you see? We have halvins here.
We have those 80 weeks after the halving, which is when the market starts to fall. This is historic, OK? Here it is. 8 post RVE we have already dropped 28%. I just showed you that. 8 weeks post-halving, we drop 60-something percent over 8 weeks. Back then, it seems like the drop didn't happen, but when you look at it closely, you see that it did drop, by 70-80%.
So, after 80 weeks post-halving, we always start a period of decline, and the most pronounced period of decline is precisely during the summer in the northern hemisphere. OK? I don't know why, don't ask me why, I keep analyzing whether it still has to do with the mathematics in which the Bitcoin algorithm was created or if it really has to do with the issue of summer for people in the northern hemisphere.
And we can see here that, for example, I'm going to go back to the first cycle that I have here, OK? This one's from Coin Base.
I'll take the one with the highest index.
OK. This is 2018. I want to go back as far as possible.
This is 2014. I think this is the last one, right? AND. Ready. We're going to come to this cycle here. Right?
Summer includes the period from June onwards, right? June here. I'm going to draw a rectangle here so we can mark it. It's practically June here, I mean June here, June, right? Until around August, or at the latest October. OK. Where is it?
Here I'll put it up until October, during this period which is the so-called summer of the thing, yet another secret revealed by the algorithm. Another secret revealed: the algorithm. I really believe in that, in those things about Bitcoin.
Yes, exactly, mining. Let's go. And I like your name, you know? Official Hob mining operation. It sounds like you're talking about me. The other day I bought something at a fair, man, it's called Xbox here, right? In Portugal, I call it Xbox, of course, but here they say Xbox. And I bought, man, an Xbox at a fair here and plugged it in, I'm a bargain hunter at fairs too, and I plugged it in. I'll show you, look. Here, look.
Let me see if I can see it here. Oh, it was just a photo, you see. There you go, working perfectly, man. I was thrilled. That's the Xbox Classic, the one from 2002 or 2003. It's in great shape. The controls work too, and everything.
So, your official hobby of mining seems to be talking about me, bro.
Let's go.
Eh, eh, so, look at that. During this period that we're seeing here in the summer, Bitcoin underwent a 45% correction between June and October 2014, which was the halving market or correction year, which is 80 weeks after the halving, 45%.
Further down the line we had another halving in 2016, and in 2017 we hit the peak and had the region that begins 80 weeks after the halving.
Let's take the summer season here, shall we?
Let's experience summer here again.
Let's take June here, then. June, and we'll continue until October, right? Here, look. Wait a minute.
It starts here in June.
June so far, okay? October to November. So, during this period, we have a correction of 11%, and then comes the disaster announced below, right? The disaster waiting to happen that was the FTX story.
In the next cycle in 2022, we're going to cover the same region here, OK? In the summer, it starts here in June and goes until October.
So we have a 27% correction here in this region, right? It starts practically on May 30th, look. On May 30th, he'll deliver a huge blow down here. If we consider the period from May 30th to the beginning of November, we have a 45% drop. And if I also take into account the period from the end of May, May 28th, until October, we have a 17% drop. And in this cycle, we are beginning at this very moment here. No, this was the previous one, wasn't it? That's what I just showed you. And in this cycle that we are now in, we are starting precisely this period of what is called summer in the northern hemisphere. OK?
Oh, Luiz is bringing up something interesting, which also coincides with the American midterm elections. This is also another interesting influence from this area, OK?
That's interesting.
Good. So let's go. What do we have here today? The May region, right?
May 25th is here because it's on the weekly schedule, it's the week of the 25th to the 31st, it ends tomorrow.
And if we take into account the average correction from 55% to 17%, we can arrive at a correction of approximately 30%.
If we implement a 17% correction, Bitcoin is likely to reach 61,000, right? And if we use 55%, which was the maximum there was, it will fall precisely in the region of 34,000 or 35,000. I honestly think it's very unlikely that this will happen.
That's why I'm going to show you when I'm going to start buying and more or less the idea I have of where I'm going to start and end, OK?
The purchase, and the price, as people already know, is below 58,000, is the moment when I come in to make this purchase here. But I'll show you why, and then I'll start exchanging ideas and answering your questions here, OK?
Ah, 135 weeks is exactly post-alive.
OK. Hey Walter, this was a studio we made during Imersão. I'll show you quickly here because, as it's a topic from the Phoenix Immersion course, I don't want to go into detail, but it's 135 weeks post-halv, the point where Bitcoin typically hits rock bottom. So all you have to do is calculate it and you'll arrive at 135 weeks, right? 135 weeks is 135 bars here. Exactly. This is November 23rd. It's typically in this region that Bitcoin will likely bottom out. OK. But there's something more important that I'll show you in a moment, and I'll come back to that other study here, OK? For this other study, which is what I was showing here, it is as follows. So, this summer period that's about to begin, OK? It lasts, it lasts all the way to the bottom, right? It has that duration that we know, starting in June until about November or October, if you want to say, about 140 days. So we have 140 days now to see Bitcoin first lose the 65,000 mark. So, in my view, uh, my projection for June, June through August, ideally it should offset the loss of 65,000 in June.
In this case, Bitcoin would only need to correct 11% in June and it would already lose the 65,000 mark.
This is my initial projection for June: that after June 10th, we should be able to reach 65,000.
OK? It's my projection, right?
That's one point.
And so far, that has been the case. In all other markets, we had this correction made during the month of June, OK? During the month of June. When you look back here, let me switch to the bars, to the candles.
And we have the month of June here with this correction here in the month of June, which was even too much, right? 44% here was even too much in June 2022, OK? June 2018, we had a correction here in June 2018, look, it starts here and goes down to 26% in 2018.
Ah, Sandro, this year might be different.
Sure, man. Anything is possible. Anything is possible. But so far, the hallmarks of the Bitcoin cycle have been repeated a lot. It might break someday, it might, but they've been repeating themselves, OK? They have been happening repeatedly. Here, for example, look, here we have a difference, but this was the first cycle in 2014. So, there wasn't much historical data to show. I take the 2017 cycle more into consideration than the 2018, 2022, and now, the decline. Because the decline in 2014 and 2015 was the first cycle where the decline even extended into 2015. See? The decline extended here into 2015, oh, until April 2015, until June 2015 the decline. If you look at June 2015, you'll see that we have one here, see, June 2015? Bitcoin was still near its bottom. So, I take cycles more into consideration after a market structure has already been established. It could change, it could, but until that happens, I prefer to plan my finances so that it doesn't change. OK?
It's that thing that Brasil para todos talked about, it's the so-called sell- away, meaning, sell in May and then get out.
Those who followed this strategy did well, you see. Look, from May 11th until now, 10%. Someone who sold one Bitcoin today can now buy 1.1 Bitcoins. If you didn't miss it, you're awesome.
Let's go, Sandrão live. News.
That's right, man. And practically all the videos I record daily for you guys are unedited, they're completely unedited. I simply record, press play here, record as if it were a live stream, and upload it. And why don't I do live streams every day? Because sometimes I record at 6 AM, and then nobody will be awake. So I prefer to do it this way and post it, and then you can watch it as you wake up. And it does n't take that long either, right? But I've already been with you for 43 minutes and I still haven't finished this study.
So, when we see this, we realize that we have a potential entry point into Bitcoin starting in June.
If we look back to June 2022, Bitcoin was at 30,000. It took him a while to get back to 30,000 in 2022, right? Let's look at the previous cycle here.
Let's look again, let's search for June here. In June he was at 6,000. It took him 329 days to get back to 6,000. What does this mean, everyone? What does that mean? What are you going to wait for? This does n't mean that for a whole year you'll be able to buy Bitcoin at the best possible price and then just wait for it to go up.
What this means is that if this persists and you start buying Bitcoin from the day after tomorrow, from Monday, June 1st, you'll be able to stay here for about 300 days, more or less until now.
April 19, 2027, buying Bitcoin, well bought.
And starting in April 2027, from that date onwards, you probably won't see Bitcoin returning to this price here below, which is the price I'm going to draw this rectangle at now.
For example, here, let's put up to 40,000. here. So you'll have all this time, man, to buy Bitcoin. So don't despair, for God's sake, you who are thinking of trading Bitcoin, OK? Roll Bitcoin, don't despair. Simply focus on buying and accumulating Bitcoin starting June 1st. Ah, Sandro, but what if it goes up in July, which sometimes happens? That's no problem. Follow your DCA (Detailed Trading Account) and you'll thank yourself after April 2027, when the price will never return to that region again, OK? I want you to focus on this.
I want you to focus on this.
Historically speaking, if you buy the same amount of Bitcoin weekly, let's say R$100, R$1,000, R$10,000, R$ 1,000, whatever your budget allows.
Weekly, if you buy from June 1st to April 19th, your average price will never be seen again for Bitcoin. Its average price will perhaps be 59, 60, 54, I don't know. It depends on how much the price will fall to the maximum.
You can also choose between 70 and 60,000, and you continue buying with 20% of your capital. Between 60 and 50, you increase to 50% of your capital. And if it drops by 50, you can add the rest; that 's another option to lower the average price.
But the most natural option is natural DCA, which is easier to make, and that means deciding to buy the same amount that doesn't keep you awake at night or make your heart race. Hey, the admin's in the area!
Awesome, little brother. Let me put it here for you. Let me see how I can get you in here. I guess I have to do it this way, right? AND. Look, I put it on.
Things got weird. Let me put it here for you.
So, when you see this, you just have to decide to start buying. If you buy during this period, you won't regret it later. OK? Yes.
Although, DM, tell me, I'm curious about what you want to show.
Man, I really enjoy reading your analyses, especially when you even throw in some speculations. I was watching you talking about the summer in the Northern Hemisphere, right? So, these are things that we can't explain, right, man? These things are so random, right?
Exactly. Exactly. It is not? And when I bring up the moon, that's when people go crazy.
No, the moon's cycle is too much. That's too much.
But hey, if it's working out, why not?
That's what I'm saying, if any indicator you use has a 70% accuracy rate, man, just leave. And the moon, at least, has been almost 90% accurate, my friend.
I don't know what influence the moon has on people's minds, but it influences even sweet potatoes. Wow, I just saw a video of an old man who, because I'm here at the mountain house, you know, and we're making a little vegetable garden, all that stuff.
And I just saw a video of a little guy saying that there aren't those long sweet potatoes, but there are round sweet potatoes. He explained why. It's not the land, it's nothing. If you plant it three days after the full moon, it will grow long. If you plant it before the full moon, three days before the full moon, it will grow round.
Because it says that after the full moon, in the week following the full moon, you have to plant everything that's underground.
So, if you plant it wrong, it will grow differently. I'm about to take the test. I have a sweet potato plant, I'm going to wait three days to plant it, because even if the sweet potato grows long, doctor, this moon has enormous power over the mind, over human nature. It must be something related to gravity, right? Because the moon exerts gravity on the Earth, right? So maybe. Well, I don't know how to explain it.
You'll have to take the test and get the result so we can do it right now.
Exactly. And when I harvest it, I 'll show you my long sweet potato here.
Or not?
Oh dear. But, hey, cool, man. Legal. Oh, never mind. I was talking about the cycle issue, you were talking about the time issue, right? Well, I see that your analyses are very much based on time, relying on movements from the previous cycle, right? In this case, you're doing a count based on previous cycles that have been working very well, right? Well, there's a lot of talk about it, isn't there, Sandra? I think it's a discussion where some argue that the cycle has broken, while others argue that the cycle continues. It fell here.
Wow, I froze, didn't I? I was the one who froze. Was n't it?
I locked your image to you. AND. And you remember that even, oh, and you remember that even, in fact, they still remind me today, uh, of that joke that came up, right, after the story where I said that Bitcoin wouldn't go back to 107,000 this year, not even if a cow coughed, that even Chaka made a bet on, I don't know what, I don't know what, so now I ask the admin now, do you think it will still go back to 107,000 this year?
So, only if something very out of the ordinary happens, in my opinion, something very positive for the crypto market, you know, those things that we can't predict and that happen out of nowhere, right? Well, Sandrão, I'm still very concerned about the American market. I don't know if you've looked into this. Man, we're at 100,500, 7,500 points, Sandrão, NASDAQ is booming upwards and Bitcoin is just standing there, right? Bitcoin is there trying to survive this movement.
Man, it's surreal to see the American market booming even with the war, even with everything that's happening. Man, honestly, I didn't imagine... I had targets, you know, for the S&P 500 in the 6,900-7,000 range during this period up to 2026. But man, 7,500 is already a huge blow, right?
Exactly. Exactly. And at some point, that has to be corrected, right, Sandrão?
Yeah, you... I don't know if you can put it on your screen there, uh, there's a graph. Wait a minute, I have it, I even took it up to here. Wait a minute. Hey, let me find it here.
Let me see if I can find it here.
Hey, hold on a second, let me make that adjustment here, so it doesn't leak, like the notepad, right?
People haven't lost their minds yet, have they, Sandrão?
Exactly. It's the open notepad there. And then, you'll become a statistic. Have you thought about it, kid? I'm going to hit 100,000 subscribers soon, even if it's the hard way. At a very high cost, right?
It's very tall. Or you could pull the famous prank, right? Put some money in there and pretend it leaked. Ah, yes, yes, yes. I can't say no to that, you see? Because I even got a beating from Marcelo Pais for saying that the guy was stalling back then.
Yeah, Marcelo gave me a hell of a beating.
No, Marcelo, he has to prove it to me. But then I talked to him and I understood perfectly. Oh, I'm going to open my screen here so you can see it again. Wait a minute, I have to... Uh-huh.
Well, this chart here, it shows the following, the blue line, I couldn't replicate this chart in my Tradeview.
I don't know what I was doing wrong.
He makes a comparison between Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and the GLI, which is the global liquidity index, right? The GLI is the white line, the S&P is the blue line, and Bitcoin is the yellow line. So, when we look at the past cycle, we have, look, the bottom of Bitcoin here is exactly where this little hand is here, you see? Where's my mouse?
I think you can see it, right?
See, I see.
And if you look at it, Bitcoin, it goes up and then it starts to fall. Meanwhile, global liquidity is rising, and the S&P 500 continues to climb. When the S&P 500 falls practically to the bottom of Bitcoin, which is more or less this point, I think it's around August 2022.
Then we'll see the same thing again in this cycle. While Bitcoin is correcting, which is the orange line, global liquidity, the white line, continues to rise, and liquidity, the blue line, the SMP500, continues to rise. And if you're looking at the previous cycle, it's because I took the screenshot at the time and I don't have the previous cycle to show you here. But when we look at the previous cycle, we see the same thing. While Bitcoin falls, the S&P still rises, liquidity still increases, and Bitcoin falls and then reverses, understand?
So, I wasn't able to replicate that graph here. I tried to find the indexes, but I don't know why I couldn't replicate them, and so I don't have a way to show them to us to do a study showing the upward and downward movements correctly. But what you said, from what we see in the Bitcoin cycle, is within the same thing. S&P rises, global liquidity increases, and Bitcoin falls.
Now I agree with you that it's worrying, but I think it's the global trend, man, in the face of war. This war, in my view, has a purpose. I might be part of the conspiracy. I've been thinking lately, this is why I sleep until the early hours of the morning, because my head is always like this, just thinking. Dude, imagine, imagine that before the American invasion, or rather, the bombing of Iran, that whole issue of the Strait of Hormuz, etc., etc., what happened in the history of oil?
The United States took over Venezuela, right? He removed the guy and, in a way, ended up having an agreement with practically the biggest oil supplier in America, right, in Latin America, practically.
Imagine that this allowed him to control much larger inventories than the United States had.
at a very cheap price. So what does he think? We have to do something so I can start selling this oil at a higher price so I can rake in the cash.
And then he carries out this invasion. While the United States itself doesn't suffer as much from this, because in addition to having its own reserves, it captured a significant amount of reserves when it removed Maduro from Venezuela. In my view, and I could be completely wrong, but this is what I've been thinking about—like, if I were the American president, I would think of something like this to capture more money. Sure, it's a load of crap.
Many countries have to buy this oil because they need to survive, especially countries like Panama, for example, which has almost no oil production, you understand? And he has to buy it. And look, it's right next to Venezuela, but it doesn't have it.
So he has to buy oil.
Costa Rica needs to buy oil.
His production is very small. They are small countries, but you have other countries, mainly in the European region, that need to buy from them.
These countries did not deplete their oil reserves during that period. They bought it from someone; they bought it because otherwise, some countries would have already collapsed.
In this way, I see that they manage to capture quite a lot, and now that they've already pocketed the money, things are starting to get out of hand. So, in my view, this whole war wasn't just a matter of religious regime; there was a commercial regime involved, a commercial interest that was far more important than that. And I said until recently that when we look and see a trip, there's nothing wrong with it, it's very good that Trump did this, I think all countries should have done it, go to China with billionaire American businessmen to negotiate there with China.
Why? Because this is important for the world, you understand?
So, at that time, political ideology did not exist. What mattered was commercial ideology, the necessity of trade. So, this was a vision I had, uh, a daydream, maybe just something crazy in my head, and I hadn't talked to you about it yet, but I wanted to let you say now that you're my guest on the live stream. Oh my, that's how it is, uh, I, I really like, Sandrão, especially following guys who have their daydreams, uh, conspiratorial daydreams, and we try to connect the dots, you right, you right commented on that, right? First, President Trump made the move regarding Venezuela, which was a move he needed to make before, in my opinion, addressing the issue of the Middle East, specifically the Strait of Hormuz, because 1/3, I think it 's 1/3 or 1/5, it's not one, it's 1/3 or 1/5, I can't remember offhand now, uh, of the oil passes through that strait. So, once it first cuts off here in the Americas, right, access to oil is mainly for Asia, right, or the European part, in terms of, uh, some other countries there, they also make some moves to kind of block Russian oil, right, because you know that Russia also sells a lot to Europe, right, a good part of Europe is also supplied by Russian oil, right? Natural gas, and other little things as well. And this trip, I think it was also a show of power, especially since, well, you take President Trump and he takes, as you said, the biggest companies in the world, and especially the companies that are now in the spotlight, the companies related to artificial intelligence, because didn't he mention NVIDIA? He took the old man from NVIDIA, the space race. which is basic or correct space or or other things, right, which is Elon Musk, right, through SpaceX and also in the production of robots, right? So you see that something like this is happening, something is happening that we don't know how it will be resolved. But to me, that was a show of power. Well, there's a theory, right, that the planet, Sandrão, is going to be divided, if my memory serves me right, into three, okay? in three parts. And these three parties, America, in this case the United States, is on this side, Putin and Xen Ping are on the other side. So, Russia controls one part and China controls another part there. Well, I don't know if India would be part of that conglomerate with China or with Putin. There's even a book, I think, that talks about it, right? about this division. I believe we are making great strides towards that. And also, Brix could stay with China, right?
Because India is part of the Bricks group, right?
Good, good. And there's something that's been going on, I don't know if it's the same in Europe, but since you live in Europe, I think it's easier for you to talk about it, right? The issue is that there's a mass migration happening, mainly towards electric cars, right? So you see, the idea, right, for Europe is to become more, less, actually, basically dependent on oil, right? Ultimately, oil shouldn't be used as a bargaining chip, especially in situations like this. Well, that would be too conspiratorial, but I do believe that the big turning point, Sandrão, for the world will be the issue of energy, right? We know that I was even looking at something, Sandra, so we can get into the analysis properly, which I want to show you, uh, that coincides precisely with what you're saying about targets you have in terms of time and price to buy, but you know that one of the problems today is two, right? These are two very critical problems, right? That's energy, right? You need a lot of energy to feed yourself, right? Data centers and also cooling, right? Because today, in order to have the data centers running and creating our images, our thumbnails, every time we create a thumbnail, it consumes more energy and heats up the data centers even more, right? And now everyone's doing stuff with IAP. Well, the solution would basically be to put these data centers in space, and whether you like it or not, if you're in space, you have 24-hour power because of the sun, and you have cooling because space is cold, and so on. So, there's a lot of talk about this race, right, that both China and the United States are racing to try and launch as many satellites and data centers as possible into space, including to solve this energy problem related to artificial intelligence. But let's leave that for something else, Sandrão. Regarding what you were saying, uh, not wanting to interrupt you, but since I'm already interrupting, I have here one, uh, I really like it, Sandrão, data on for me, and I know there are people, or other friends/creators, who criticize it, and they're not wrong to criticize because everyone has their own methodology. But I've always been the kind of guy who thinks, " Look, if it's working for so-and-so, why would I criticize it, right?" It might not work for me. For example, you like to do various types of analysis, mainly based on time, right?
Based on what I see you doing, you say that, from a certain month or period, the market may start to rise, or from a certain period, month, the market may start to fall, because it coincides with what happened in past cycles or past behavior. Dude, uh, I bought Bitcoin in the 16th, more or less 16,000,000 there, 20- something thousand I also bought quite a bit based on an indicator called MVRV.
And I've always said this, uh, it wasn't exactly technical analysis, because, for example, Bitcoin, when it reversed, I can even show you here, when it reversed in the last cycle, where is it?
Bitcoin.
It's a shame they discontinued that BLZ, BLX thing, right? I don't know if you're like, "Wow, this Bitcoin chart here was amazing," but you see the confirmation of the Bitcoin reversal in the last cycle. It happened here, when Bitcoin broke through $5,000, and we see that famous change in characteristics, you know. We've been falling, falling, we're making a change in characteristics, you know, in price there, we're breaking through the 25,000 mark. At 1,000, you see that Bitcoin moves sideways for a bit and then gives another upward jolt, not offering much opportunity. Well, for those who actually trade, you know, the Price Action in Bitcoin, there wasn't much opportunity for someone to buy here, which would basically be someone using that famous Fibonacci retracement from the bottom to the top and waiting to buy again at $0.000.
Well, he didn't, like, someone who only traded with pure price action, you know, he wasn't able to make that purchase. But, for example, MVRV, he was shouting, right?
He started yelling here, he started yelling here, and he started kicking and screaming here. Dude, buy it, buy it, buy it because it's at the bottom, right? But then the market goes, moves sideways, and never comes back again. And we saw what happened, right? Bitcoin is hitting the 12,000-26,000 mark, which was our peak for this cycle at that moment, right? So, when you look at the indicators, oh oh oh, Sandrão, which you even show there, anyway, or based on time, I look again at the famous MVRV, right? And I see, wait a minute, what is MVRV telling me this time, man? But it didn't, the cycle didn't change like that. Uh, I even went to the Bingx event, you know, the Bingx pizza anniversary party, and our dear Walter was there, right? Also, a big hug to our dearest Walter. That 's great, Walter, young man. It looks great, you know?
I saw some of his stories. Beautiful scenery. It's beautiful, chic. Lastly.
And it's chic. That guy's a billionaire, right?
Yeah, right? That guy reached a level we haven't reached yet, right?
Traveling only in business class, chartering planes, in short, buying BMWs, buying Mercedes, buying everything for a watch. It's a watch, right? He must have about 40 or 50 watches already. No, that's true.
He has quite a few watches. I think he has about 30 watches already, man. Anyway.
Damn. I'm still here in my little car, you see.
I'm still here in my own space, you know. Also, oh. There's nothing there.
This is my watch, look. The telephone is the old clock of the cell phone, right?
So, Sandra, I've never been obsessed with watches, man. I've never been. So, like, no, no. Ah, but I could have, I could have, man. But it is, you know, it's not something that I can't wrap my head around, anyway. But as I said, to each their own, right? But anyway, getting back to our analysis, the pricing bands from MVRV show some very interesting things, right? When I get the full cycle here, Sandrão, it's because it still doesn't let me put it in full screen. But what I observed in the past cycle, so we have to look at 2022 to try to find some confluence now in 2026. In 2022, the price of the MVRV, the Pricing Bands, was precisely in the realized price region, or the region where the long-term holders slightly capitulated.
Some long-term holders slightly capitulated, so much so that we entered the capitulation region, which is below this one, basically below this bluish line here, and we entered an extremely fearful region.
Although we had quite a few things in 2022 that caused fear in the cryptocurrency market, exchange collapses, insolvency, right, of some crypto protocols that had, you know, a lot of confidence. So, we saw some pretty peculiar things happening in 2022, which generated even more fear in the market and may have even contributed to a slightly more aggressive drop. Well, what do we have now, Sandrão? Now, looking at the current cycle, right? Well, we have price bands, right, with realized prices, which here is a sort of consolidated view of both short-term and long-term holders. They're there with the base price, Sandrão, at 54,000 54,000.
And those price ranges, right? Then you start connecting it with other things, you start to understand, wow, it makes a lot of sense, right? Well, it aligns with my analysis or with my time price, right? From when would a price be attractive enough to start accumulating Bitcoin? But the MVRV, or in this case the realized price of this cycle, is in the range of 54,000.
So, mark that first price level right there. When you break that down, Sandrão, and you start looking only at the short-term holder, this little swing that the price made recently, Sandrão, this little swing gave an opportunity to those who bought Bitcoin in the last 155 days, right, which would be the basis of calculation, right, for short- term investors. For example, someone who bought Bitcoin in the last 150 days would be at a profit, or at a loss. So, the base price, right, or rather, the base cost for the short holder was at 76. So, Bitcoin was in the range of, if you look at it there, especially the spot market, the Coinbase guys and those guys, when the price started to approach 76,000, 1,000, those guys started to distribute, started to distribute a little, right? Miners also started distributing it lightly.
Why, man? What is the probability that the price will hit 76,000 again after we hit 59? Man, we went up 20- something thousand. So, those people who had bought Bitcoin in the short term, and here I also include retail investors, saw the opportunity to at least break even, to leave the game because they thought: "Man, this is strange, there's a war going on, there's this, there are no maximum limits, so I'm going to get out because this thing is going to collapse," and sure enough, right?
The market hit, I think it even hit 82,000,000, it was even a little more.
It's almost 83, right? That 's it. Even fueling that feeling. No, now it's going to go, now it's going to reverse. And many people, Sandrão, incredibly enough, and we're talking about the inexperienced ones, right? They started buying very heavily at 72, 74, thinking that yes, the market was going to do a little turnaround, that it was going to keep going up. They might, but we're at 70-something thousand, where are we now? We're at 73, right? We're at 73,000, but it can come back from here and rise very strongly again, man. It can. But then we get into another issue, Sandrão, which is the following, okay? Which is the following: when we look at the long-term holders, who for me are the guys who, you know, help manage the price of Bitcoin, for example, when they spill, they spill hard, when they hold, they hold hard.
The base price of the long-term holder is at 48,900, 48,900.00, and that coincides with the probabilities you were talking about, that range of 48, 49, 50, uh, which is where you, from what I saw in what you were saying, intend to start accumulating perhaps a little more strongly, right?
That's right, isn't it?
It's more or less that region. In other words, below the 58, I'm already going to start buying. Why?
Because if this year is different, the drop won't reach 65% from the peak to the bottom, even if it's at the 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level, when we draw it, it gives that region more or less near 38,000, you understand? So, I don't think it will reach that point, and I don't want to risk it, you understand? I prefer to focus on what you said. It won't reach that extreme.
Yes. If something like that really happens, it will go from 48 to 38 very quickly.
Then we enter that confluence you showed us, with the American market rising, global liquidity rising, Bitcoin not rising, but trying to rise. But then the market liquidity starts to dry up, obviously, and the American market, the SPN, starts to correct, and Bitcoin follows suit, right? Because it's already fragile, it won't be a red against the American market, it won't be a red against global liquidity, because we know that for Bitcoin to rise it also needs liquidity, right? And And today what we see is that liquidity is very distributed, especially when we go back to the American market and look, we see that the liquidity that should or could be going to the crypto market is going to new technologies. And you already know, right, technologies that we're seeing there, but what really strikes me as risky is that, at a moment like this, the money won't go anywhere, it won't go anywhere, the money will go to the dollar.
And if you look at this last week, it was a very bad week for Bitcoin, especially in the ETFs, we had billions of dollars leaving, we had BlackRock leaving 500 million dollars one day, and 400 million dollars the next.
This demonstrates, in my opinion, Sandron, it shows that the long-term holders in ETFs also foresee, in their view, perhaps another price drop and they want to buy, obviously much cheaper. To avoid talking too much here, Sandron, there's... Just one more thing I want to show you, which is the Z-score, right? It basically measures, and this will exactly coincide with what you were saying a few minutes ago. What does the Z-score do? It measures the price deviation from the realized value, that is, the average cost on change of all holders, right? The higher the ZCO, the more stretched it is. The lower it is, the closer the price is to the fair price. And again we find another price region that has already been mentioned here, which is $4,000.
$4,000 shows that it is the base region, but there is a detail. And then comes the question of what if this happens, or if we have a slightly more aggressive drop in all previous cycles.
And that's what caught my attention so far, Sandrão, in all previous cycles, we had a bit of capitulation from the long-term holder, right? Both the long-term holder and the long-term holder. Both time-holders and short-term holders capitulate, meaning they sell at a loss or partially at a loss. In the 2019 cycle, we had a little bit of that during the pandemic, we had it in the 2022 cycle, we had it in the 2015 and 2016 cycles, which I regret to this day, which was when I sold my bitcoins here, Sandrão. I sold them here, Sandrão. Oh, Sandrão, if I hadn't sold those bitcoins here, Sandrão, here, look. It was right here, look. If I hadn't sold them, Oh, no, actually it was here, Sandrão. It was here, look. I sold them at 17,000 and something dollars. Then it hit, obviously, $1,000, but then I didn't buy them back here, Sandrão, I didn't buy them back because I sold six bitcoins at 16,000 and something at the time. The dollar was, the real was three to one with the dollar.
And the guy was happy because he had made R$ 300,000 with six bitcoins.
No, and I was, and then I bought nano.
I was very happy.
Seriously?
And he was the guy who introduced me to Bitcoin in April, May 2017, when Bitcoin was $800.
Wow. And I was very happy, Sandrão, because, like, I had, I think more or less here, Sandrão, I should have had about 10 bitcoins, more or less, about 10 BTC.
Then I sold them here at 17,000, it came here, I said: "Wow, man, I sold really well, it's at 3,000". But my head wasn't yet that of an investor. At that time I didn't have a channel, I didn't even have a YouTube channel. I was more, well, a bit crazy.
Anyway, you see that in 2019, 2018 we had fundraising here, we had fundraising, the pandemic, we had a little bit of fundraising there. And here, Sandrão, In 2022, we also had capitulation. But in this current cycle, Sandrão, we haven't yet had that kind of capitulation, and what that means is that these people will sell below 48,000, right?
Exactly. For example, short holders will sell if the market plummets, for instance, if we lose 40,000 or 50,000, if we lose 50,000, people will start selling. That's a sure thing. And there's also, as I said, the long-term holders, who might also sell along with it. So, in this cycle, we haven't seen that yet, Sandrão. And that's what leaves me with this nagging feeling, these crazy confluences, which is the confluence of the American market, the confluence of a stretched market, right, in the global part. And obviously, Bitcoin will, if all this craziness that we imagine might happen, we go down here. Regarding the 48, 54, well, there's no way to pinpoint a price there, and then we can capitulate here, have a capitulation here, and then we can mark the bottom of the real Bitcoin price.
So, Sandrão, if I were to put everything you said and everything I'm seeing based on the information the market is giving us, these on-chain valuations, I would conclude that there's still a little more room for the market to kick out those who need to be kicked out of the game, to make those who need to capitulate capitulate, to truly discourage those who like to get caught up in the euphoria, and who even bought around 73,000,000 very aggressively, and that's it.
But ADM, the market could start to rise again from here, it could, but we're already buying, we're already making our purchases, we're already taking our necessary precautions, but I can't rule out, Sandrão, the possibility of a drop.
Especially with these very latent confluences that are there for us.
Exactly. That's right. Just to corroborate what you said about MV RV, look, this is the same thing here. Wait, I have to say now the guy quits one and puts in another, right? Yes. So, here, the MV, RVZ score in every cycle, it goes there and takes a little dip here.
I even joked saying it's the little worm that's going to dive into the grass here, into the green stuff. And notice that it's the bottom.
Here the same thing in this region, it dives. Then I have to come more here just to make the graph bigger so people can see. You see that it's the bottom here, practically. Remember you talked about the last cycle, a region, what was the date you mentioned? Was it when it had a good drop in 2022? It was in that September range, September was here, right? Okay, look, where it really enters is precisely on September 5th. It enters, dives into this little patch here, and stays submerged until practically December 26th, and then it exits. And lastly, I just wanted to show you, uh, this is ADM, I don't know if you've seen the BL Bull Market Support Band, which uses these two averages for us to decide when to exit the market and when to enter.
In other words, when it completely leaves the Bull Market Support Band, that is, which is a support level, it holds Bitcoin.
It was more or less here when it lost 110,000, it doesn't go back inside, right? It even tries to go back, as happened recently, which was that opportunity you mentioned where the longers managed to uh, uh sell at a price for the super holder who tried to sell at that point, which was way down there, right? I think it was at 46, 45 at that time, and it's been going up here, right?
Yeah, it was here more or less at, no, here 2 26. Yes, it was around 40,000 here and now it's around 48,000, as you mentioned. Uh, let me look it up again. Okay. So, the shortholder breathed a sigh of relief, got out, and now we're back to the lower part, and it's now become a resistance band, right? I said it's a bull market resistance band. While it stays below, as it did here in 2022, we can buy, okay? Below. Whoever wants to do DCA keeps buying. When there's a reversal, it's more or less here. When it comes back, it tries, it completely breaks out, it retested here in March 2023 and then it was gone and never again, oh, it even fell here on August 21, 2023, which was right after the launch of the ETFs, right? They launch the ETFs, then it holds a bit down here and then it opens up with a vengeance and then it becomes a bull market support band. In other words, being above this Here's the line, man, you just have to wait for the right moment and only sell when it completely loses value. "Ah, Sandro, but if I had sold here in March 2025, great, man. You bought at 17, 16 and sold at 89. You went back in again, bought at 94. Ah, but I was going to buy more expensive. Okay, you bought at 94, went back in here, sold at 110. That's profit, man. And I've never seen anyone get poor while having profit in their pocket, you know? I've never seen that story.
So I'm focused. It's as important to be in profit.
Exactly, exactly. I'm focused here... these days I was even showing the group here that I like, my things are very transparent, right? I don't... what I do, I'm like that story I tell, right? I kill the snake and don't show the stick. I show the dead snake, right? So here I even showed my short positions here inside Binance, right?" "The last three months, so you guys can see my results, whether I had a positive result or a negative result.
Okay, here's a negative result.
It was 150 dollars, but I do n't want this one here.
Wait, let me start here, look. Look, I had this for the last three months here, look. Here it is, three months.
So, this computer and internet are terrible. Positive, positive. Then I had a negative result here, look how much I lost, 40 bucks, you understand? And I had previously won, just in this operation here, 3700, just in this other operation here, and I'll show the rest, 1600.
Then the guy comes up here.
Then right after I lost the 40, I won another 1009.
Then it went up a little more, I won 2400.
Oops, it's red. You lost.
Really, I..." I lost. How much? How much did I lose here? Two grand, you understand? Two grand. A little higher up here. I mean, the two grand is down here. A little higher up. Then I won a little more here, I won another 300.
Then I won another 800 higher up here. Then I won here.
Was this the last one? Let me see if this was the last one.
I entered this on May 30th, 142.
I'm negative now. I am, I am. Oh, no, there was this negative here. Okay. This one, this negative here is good. I like to show everything, look. 152. But you see, I think in all the trades I made, these 90 days, I think it reached the top, I lost $2 and won, I don't know, $8,000, you understand? In the last 90 days. Now I'm in a position, I'm short with a I'm a little bit here, with 28,000, I'm losing 64, 78 here, but I'm calm. Why?
Because I'm just waiting for it, I'm really eager for it to go up, I want it to hit 2080, more or less.
I even have an order here to buy, okay? At 2087 here, look.
Okay. Where's the price here? 2083.
Why? I want it to go up a little more so I can buy it down, you understand?
When it hit 82600, I was in a live stream, well, not a live stream, a video, it was even this order here. I said, I'm going to leave an order marked at 82600.
When it hits, it will automatically go through.
It's here, look. It went through at 82600.
So, since I believe in my theory that it will go up and I don't care, DM, when I make these trades like this, I don't care. I I'm not a day trader, right?
You know that. I have trades that take 45 days to hit my target, you know? Then when it hits my target, I'm out. But during that period I take losses, I do, but I stay quiet, I stay safe, you know? I stay safe, I hold on, I hold on. Why?
Because I have to trust what I do, and that's what I do... I'm very happy that you came to this live stream today, because what you showed, you showed new things that converge with what I've been showing practically since October, November of last year. But now it's becoming clearer, you know? It's becoming clearer. That's why sometimes people complain, insult me, attack me like crazy, because I put myself out there and, as you said, I like to set dates, right? I like to say the date, say, look, it's going to arrive at such and such time, I don't know what. And people complain because, of course, if you There are, I think, 60%, today it should already be at 60%, even though they believe that Bitcoin will hit an all-time high this year or hit $0,000,000 this year, 40% already know it won't, you understand? It could happen, it could.
It could go to zero, or it could go to 1 million. We don't control the market. And what we've invested in this, you can't manipulate even a fly, not even a worm. Let's see, if you want to manipulate it, you can, Sandrão.
We can't even manipulate those emeralds, you know?
Look, for Bitcoin to go back to $0,000, $ 100,000, okay, it's not even the $107 you mentioned, it also has to go back at least 36% from the current price to go back to $0,000. To go back to $107,000, it has to go back 45%.
My friends, that's a lot, man. It's A lot of things.
And I didn't even show the Chicken Channel.
Wow, I didn't show anything today.
And he didn't come in. And I said, ever since that live stream, I think it was in February of this year, when we were with Chaka, I kept saying he wouldn't reach 107, I don't know what, he hit 98, did n't reach 107, rejected it. And I've been saying he won't hit 86 again, which is precisely this zone here. Let me be honest, right?
No, no, he didn't hit here, look. That live stream, we were here, look. Look, it was around January or February. He was here. I think it was the beginning of January.
It was, it was like the 5th or 6th of January, that live stream. I was even in Spain and I said, he won't reach 107, which was this region up here. You see? I even corrected it at the time, I said: "No, it's not 107, it's 110. Exactly. But he did n't go for the 107, he hit 98 and fell. And after it breaks out of the support, this last support line here, it never goes back inside the channel, except when it reverses the trend and goes into an uptrend. And I kept saying that he wouldn't hit 86, that he could, he could try to get back to 96, but I'd say there was a 10% chance of that happening, a 90% chance he wouldn't go to 86. And now what happened? He didn't go, he arrived there again at '83. And when it goes back inside the channel, past the middle region, and keeps retesting here, man, see if it doesn't converge with that region you mentioned when it enters, the 25,000 region, look. Uh-huh.
Remember when you said it was when the reversal happened? It's right here. He enters, he tries to enter the canal, he can't, he hits the 25, he comes back and then he finally breaks through, breaks through the 25 and goes away.
When a strong intention actually enters the market, entering the channel with force.
Exactly. It's exactly like and matches the region you mentioned, the one with 25,000.
Here, look. I'm going to draw a straight line so everyone can see, look.
When he tries here, oh, oh. 25.29.
93, you see? That's when he tries to break up, and then he leaves.
Hey, that's important, Emerson. That's very important what you said, professor. The problem is that if you're in operation for 45 days and don't hit your target, not everyone has the money to hold on for two months. I agree with your version, but it has to be financially structured. Perfectly.
Perfectly. Emes, what I explain to the guys is the following. Sometimes guys have $10,000, for example, to make a trade and want to go in with $8,000 all at once. It's not going to work, you're going to have problems, understand? The operation I showed you is an ADM (Administrative Management) strategy that I held for 45 days, and I reached -65,000, man. It was a million- dollar operation, sorry, 65,000 reais, no, R$ 65,000, it was a R$ 150 million operation.
I got down to 65, but I was calm because, for example, my liquidation price was 3700 ether, you know?
Bullfighting, right?
Hi.
I had to go back to the bull market and start bullfighting, right? Exactly. So, when I trade, I trade in that situation. Ah, Sand, if you lost all your money, man, there are people who lose 100 million and are liquidated in a single liquidation.
I know that if I lost this, I would go looking for it, I would recover it in another way, in a different manner. But I have to perform an operation to really make a difference, you understand? And when I exited the operation, I already had around R$ 25,000 in profit. In other words, I recovered all my capital and came out with a profit of 25,000. I sold it, uh, I stopped the operation, Etério was at 2080, man.
So, what did I do? I waited for it to climb to around 2140, then I went back in. I sold it down there for around 2000 and a bit more. I waited for it to rise to around 2040, but now I've sold at around 1900. That's why we have those operations that I showed you in the last three months.
But why are these operations that I perform? Because I'm not a day trader. I 'm not on the computer all the time. I'm going to plant now, I'm going to, it'll be three days until I plant sweet potatoes there so they grow long, right? Well, I'm going to do other things, I'm going to live my life, but since I want to show people that there's great potential to make money with futures trading, if you have the time, for example, I really admire Chaka, I would have already endorsed it if I were Chaka, right? Chaka and Maroja, who are the ones who make trades like that practically every day, I think they do it daily, right?
Yes, they do. Yeah, it's because, like, it's that, you know? It's subdivided into objectives, right? If you are financially speaking, right? For example, I 'll explain how I operate, right?
Which has a little bit of uh parity with what they also do, right?
My capital is divided up, right? For example, I have my heaviest capital there. I don't day trade with my larger capital; I don't trade at all. Well, with heavier capital, I operate in other types of trading modalities. It's trading too, but it's a different type of trading. It's a trade that's not focused on the short term; it's a trade that's more focused on time, a longer period, right? So, like, you have a whole management system in place for that. And short-term trading is a different type of capital with a different objective, right?
For example, you opened those positions there.
These positions, as you yourself mentioned, are not for day traders, but are positions that you structured so that you could hold them for a longer period. You're not aiming for a short-term goal, are you? Well, even though she was against you, it was within your control. You had control over that. And going back to my friend's comment, well, the issue isn't whether you have the cash to keep the operation going like this, in my opinion, right? It's not about having the cash to maintain operations, it's about structuring those operations even before opening them.
Exactly. The guy can do it with money if he wants.
Exactly. Exactly. You can put 90, right? He's going to put in five, he's going to put in 10.
Oh, it's structured.
If I believe in it, it's not for anyone to do, but I'll give an example here of how I would structure an operation like that. If I believe that Bitcoin could reach 58,000 by September, which is my target, right? If I project it, if it makes sense within my study, because it 's not a matter of believing or guessing, it's a matter of projection. I could be wrong, I could, but you have to take a risk, and that risk has to be calculated, right? It can't be a risk like jumping off a cliff without a parachute, no. The guy who jumps off a cliff or out of a plane with a parachute, there is a risk, yes, but it's a calculated risk, you understand? So, for example, if I enter a trade like this, for example, a short position, let's say: "Ah, I'm going to open a short position here now at 73,000 and I want my target here at 58, for example, in the long term." Hey Chaca, close your ears, please, okay? Close your ears. In a trade like this, I don't place a stop loss because I'm structuring it based on my price action, OK? My liquidation price in a Bitcoin transaction like this is 73,000; it would only work if it were in the 112,000 region, with my maximum liquidation price in the 109,000 region. Like, I'd only get liquidated if Bitcoin went back to 109,000. before hitting my target. But why do I do this? Because I have prior knowledge of the subject. That's why I'm saying that nobody should do it. Why?
Because if it happens, I can still sleep peacefully, because I can handle the money that's going away here. And there are people who don't. Some people invest beyond their financial means, or borrow money, or take advantage of this. And that's really where the big problem lies for those who trade, and for some other things as well. Dangerous things happen when people trade, especially with money they need next month or money that's extra. Why?
Because for an operation like this, I can wait until Bitcoin reaches 72,000 again. Let's say he just goes up, up, up, up, up. Ah, Sandre, if it reaches 109 at its liquidation price, I have more money to put in. Then I'll lower my liquidation price to 115,000. 1000 to 118, to 120, understand? So it all depends. That's why, when we talk about Business Administration at Imersão Futuros, I only teach with the word "stop." I only teach using " stop," understand? That's something Chaka emphasizes, and I completely agree with him. I learned to respect the position he put forth and adopt it in my life, explaining to anyone, like in a long or short position, that you have to have a stop-loss order. There has to be a stop-loss order, and the trade has to be at least three times above the risk-reward ratio.
So, it's different when I teach and it's different when I do. But then, as our friend mentioned something that I think is very relevant, I endured the operation because it was well-structured, and if it hadn't been, I would have been screwed, you know? And you ended up with a huge loss because you didn't structure it properly, and you saw, "Oh my God, this thing is going to keep going up against my trade, let me close this." Then you close, and the market crashes.
Exactly. Yes, that's what I came close to closing, not closing because I had to trust, but when I would close the DM, if Bitcoin broke through what I showed here on the Gusan Channel, the 86,000, and it entered and made 86 as support. If Bitcoin had broken through 86 and established support at 86,000, I would have closed at maybe 70,000; 80,000 would have been a loss. But I have the structure to do it. Why would I close it? Because I know that for me, this was a crucial point of control for Bitcoin, to determine whether the bull market had actually returned earlier than expected or if it had been an extended bull market, for example. So, until then I was holding on, I was calm. Why?
Because I had done a study, right? I do n't just wander in, I wander into a study, and I don't know if it was my internet or just a random thought, like, "Oh no, you were just paying attention." Damn, I thought it was frozen.
No, I'm paying attention here.
So tell me, Ado. Share your thoughts, man. Thank you so much from the bottom of my heart for participating in this live stream, man.
It was fantastic. Thank you very much indeed.
Same. It became too big here. Hey everyone, check out the admin's channel! What's the channel name now?
Yes, it's the ADM Investe channel. That 's right. I'm going to put it on the screen so everyone can see it. ADM invests because it used to be the crypto market, right?
Yes, it used to be called Crypto Market Channel. But, like, I want to talk about other things, you know? And we know that the algorithm punishes this crypto aspect quite a bit, right?
Well, because it involves a lot, anyway, I don't know why this happens, but I'm doing this migration, this rebranding, you know, improving this brand to make it easier for people to find the channel. And thank God we're rebuilding this good idea. Good idea. I've been talking about, I've been talking about the SP500, about the trade we made in oil, man, damn, we entered the oil market on February 19th at 68,000, at 68.
And there's another thing, Sandão, I don't know if you've been following, but everything, absolutely everything, the entire global financial market, it's going to migrate to blockchain, it's going to migrate to RW, when I say migrate, I mean the way it's operated, right? So, for example, we're going to have, we're having a lot of issues with tokenization, right? This topic is coming back again. Why, man, the big companies, Larry Fink himself said, man, we need to change the global financial system and tokenizing things is the best way to do that, because you have a market that will work 24/7, including, I don't know if you saw, but the CMI will no longer have gaps, especially in Bitcoin, why? It will start operating 24/7. And for these things to start working 24/7, we also need to implement blockchain technology in the middle of all this, you understand? Finally, and it's getting pretty good, like, so much so that today, if you look at brokers, all the brokers now, especially the largest ones, are implementing foreign assets in their respective portfolios, in this case the S&P 500, Forex, and CFDs, actually, right? So, why? You're starting to see this movement, you know? So, when we talk about crypto, we also have to talk about the traditional market, which is also much stronger.
Exactly. Because most of these brokers are trading at a minimum either gold, silver, or oil. Minimum.
Yes, right? The guy is negotiating this at the very least.
So, if you don't open yourself up to really talking about other markets, and I'm giving this warning to the people watching the live stream, open your mind to these other markets. We recently showed how Nokia's market exploded.
Sandisk, the one that makes memory stuff, you know? It exploded in popularity, you understand? Oh, there are several indexes there. Hey, hey, hey, what's the name of that guy over there? Yuri gave us a class here at Betia Cai to talk specifically about Scandis, which we bought before the boom. We bought it before this boom.
Very good. Hey guys, look, the admin is structuring Bitak right now. Keep an eye out because there's some really good stuff coming up, you know?
Oh there. Keep an eye out because there's some really good stuff coming up. Oh man, it's semiconductors, now that I remember. Have you ever seen the semiconductor index?
Look at this.
No, I didn't see it.
One day it will come, right? When I manage to learn how to work with this business again. That's why it appeared there. Wow!
In April 2025, it was at 4,000, now it's at 12,000. Look, Nokia, in September 2025, was at 3.8, now it's at 12.49. It went up too high, you understand? The Sandis you mentioned, you know? So there's a lot to it. Intel also made a good increase, oh, for that.
Intel was at 44 this year, now it 's at 64.
Look, it even looks like those meme graphics they're releasing, right?
Exactly.
So I always carry all of these around because, man, they've brought fantastic movements here. And that's why I've been talking about it again. So, please, you who are watching now, when you see a channel that was about crypto, that is about crypto, like mine, like ADM's, like Yuri's, open your mind to other investments, because in the end what matters is accumulating wealth, it's about being able to make money and having that money stay with you, generating more money. As a result, right? That's the term, right? Follow demand. Sign the money.
Exactly. Exactly. And damn it, how am I supposed to ignore this? Oh, May, man, we're talking about May, oh. Intel, we're talking about a 172% increase from March 30th to now, how can I ignore a movement like that? So today you have DM Exchange where you can trade Intel, trade Sandisco, you understand? So we can't ignore this, folks. Please don't ignore this. But that's it. So, let me make my final remarks here, almost 2 hours of live streaming. Thank you again. It was bad to say that, generally, you think you do an hour, right, an hour and a bit, right?
No, but it was important. You made the live stream too big. I was very happy. Everything I told you when you commented is true. You're a guy I admire a lot. You, Yuri, Chaka, that whole group. I tried to call the doctor, but he must be sleeping, right? He neither answered the call nor responded here yet.
Ah, Chaka is the one replying there, the one I was teasing because he's in Mexico, right?
Oh, I'm going to Mexico now, on the 24th. I'm going to spend a few days there in Mexico.
Good, too good. Too good. But everything I said is absolutely true.
From the bottom of my heart, you're a guy I admire a lot, a friend I've been able to make within this crypto market. And man, you're in my heart, you're part of my family. You have n't met in person yet, have you?
We had a few disagreements there. But, oh, in January I'm going on a tour of Europe and I'll be passing through there. Yes yes. Then we can even continue, if we run into each other somewhere along the way.
And when you come to Portugal, come stay here at my house, stay here in the mountains so we can eat and plant some potatoes. I'm going to plant some potatoes.
Plant potatoes. Let's see if we can plant good potatoes like this. Okay, brother.
Thank you so much for everything. Now, your considerations. What message can you give to these people for the month of June?
Dude, it's June. I'll just say one thing, guys. Come on, let's live one day at a time. It's mine, my phrase, man.
Yes, live one day at a time. Of course, everyone has their own goals, whether short, medium, or long term, but live one day at a time. Don't be too eager to get what you want. Yes, expose yourself to the risk. If you see that the risk is worth it for you, take the plunge, because nothing ventured, nothing gained, right, Sandro? So, like, uh, live, but don't destroy yourself, right? And you destroy yourself if you put in more money than you can afford or take an uncontrolled risk.
As Sandão said, if you jump from a parachute, if you jump from a plane, jump off a cliff, you have to at least have a parachute to minimize the risk of the worst happening, you know, anyway.
So, jump, parachute in, and live one day at a time. These are my thoughts. Sandrão, thanks for the space. We're always together, whenever you need me I'm here. And let's go up. A big hug to the community that welcomed us today.
Thank you so much, everyone. Keep an eye out because next month, God willing, we'll have some news about Bit Academy so you can stay tuned, okay? So that's it, thank you very much, DM, once again. God bless you all there. Take the weekend, enjoy your family, don't be so stressed, because you need to have your mind prepared and your emotions calm so that from Monday or Tuesday, when you decide on an operation, you'll have peace of mind. So, enjoy your family, have fun, because time passes too quickly and life, however long it may be, is still very short. God bless you all.
See you in the next video, okay everyone?
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