Bitcoin Always Does This After The Bottom — I'm Waiting 4 More Weeks

Added: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]Hello, hello. Let's jump straight into it, shall we? Here on the short-term holder realized price chart we have here on Bitcoin magazinepro.com.

[00:00:07]Now, if you weren't aware, over the past few days and and week or so, really, Bitcoin's been looking pretty good. I mean, we've rallied off the local lows that we set in February at around $60,000 and we've just been grinding higher almost without stopping, it seems. And where a lot of people thought we have some resistance at around the short-term holder realized price, currently around $79,000, we just melted straight through that.

[00:00:32]And now people starting to get a little bit optimistic, which I guess makes sense. If we're starting to reclaim some key major resistance points, then makes sense that people are starting to get a little bit more bullish and have a little bit more positive expectations of the upcoming days and weeks. But if I just go over to TradingView here, what we can see is even though things are definitely definitely looking more positive, it was immediately into a fairly heavy level of resistance. I mean, if we just zoom out, we can see this red zone here, which is from around 81,000 to around 85,000, has been a pretty key turning point throughout the past few years of Bitcoin, acting as a major level of support on multiple occasions, and most recently some resistance. But it's not just the technical levels we see there.

[00:01:18]If we add on some key moving averages, we can also see, again, even though we have reclaimed that short-term holder realized price, or at least at the minute we're pulling back a little bit. When I was planning this video a few hours earlier, we were considerably above it, but even though we have reclaimed it, if we just look in, we can see this green line here, the 200-day moving average is exactly where we've been rejected from.

[00:01:39]This yellow line here is the 2-year moving average. And we can see even though we got close to this 200-weekly moving average, we can still see that having a run to the upside like this is usually unsustainable, especially given the fact that we're beneath and right on the cusp of some major resistance levels. Now, I'm not going to act as if this is a a recent development. If we look at the video we released 10 days ago, I outlined pretty much this exact point that I didn't think that we'd break through $80,000 immediately. Now, granted, even I was quite surprised at the strength that we saw in this price action here. I thought it'd be a bit more of an immediate pullback towards the mid-70,000 region, but we've been hovering around this level for a few days. So, I'm seeing more and more people get more and more bullish and optimistic.

[00:02:25]But, I do still think, especially as we're seeing maybe not a warranted amount of bullishness and positive price action, just judging by the network activity as well looking at something like the active address sentiment indicator, which has recently dipped back down beneath this upper deviation band, which historically has preceded some more bearish periods of price action.

[00:02:46]I do think, even though the lows are in, if we just look at this title, Bitcoin's bottom is probably in at $60,000, but I'm not buying here. I still stand by, even though we have seen probably more strength than I think most people anticipated.

[00:02:59]Because along with the price base capitulation, there is a time-based capitulation element to Bitcoin bear markets that I do just still think we haven't quite endured yet. If we look at the Bitcoin drawdowns from all-time high to cycle low, we can see, this chart's from a couple days ago, we still have considerable time to go if we're to do any type of similarity in terms of elapsed time compared to the previous bear markets. I worded that terribly, but surely you can understand what I'm getting at by looking at this chart. Now, again, this might seem slightly contradictory because I'm saying I think the bear market lows are in, or at least I think there's over a 50% chance that $60,000 was the lowest price we'll see.

[00:03:42]And looking at something like this chart, and looking at traditional four-year Bitcoin cycles, people looking to September-October time where we might see a Bitcoin bottom in price action, and I don't think that's the case, but I do think we're not just going to straight fly through all of this resistance and start climbing into a new bull market imminently. And it isn't just backed up by what we've seen historically. I always like to look at some data to really provide some confluence and reaffirm expectations rather than just relying on, "Oh, well, this has always happened when always is two or three different data samples." It's not a very extensive history we really have for comparisons. But if we look at the high yield credit cycles of Bitcoin, we can see when risk-on sentiment isn't just around in the cryptocurrency markets, but in traditional finance, when we have increasing appetite for higher yielding corporate bonds, this has coincided and potentially been the causation of more bullish and risk-on periods for Bitcoin. And we've seen a little bit of a divergence recently.

[00:04:41]We've seen this actually start moving to the downside. And this has coincided with the US Dollar Strength Index having a little bit of a cool-off period. We can see historically there's been a very noticeable inverse correlation between these. As we see the US Dollar Strength increase, Bitcoin typically declines. And we'll just go back over to TradingView here. What we can see is if I just remove all of these, we can add on the expert bundle and just get a little bit of insight into potential upcoming price action based on some more macro data points.

[00:05:11]Now, first and foremost here, this isn't actually looking at the US Dollar Strength Oh, it is. I lied. It is looking at the US Dollar Strength Index.

[00:05:18]I was planning to show that afterwards, but we can skip straight to point.

[00:05:21]This is the US Dollar Strength Index but on a year-on-year basis. Because if we look at something like the US Dollar Strength Index, we can see fiat currencies are debasing over time. And And people may say the US Dollar is gaining strength versus other currencies. But again, if we look over time, we can see the cost of goods and services are rising fairly substantially. So, if we look at a year-on-year basis of the change of the US Dollar Strength Index, I think it gives us a better understanding of potential upcoming price action. And like I said, this is with a 100-day offset and the chart has been inverted as well due to the inverse correlation that we see. Now, if we just zoom in on this US dollar strength index, we can see and and we've been discussing this for a few weeks now. This was actually pointing towards a little bit of a almost bear market rally into mid-May, which is where we are now. And almost to the exact day. I mean, the highest closing price of Bitcoin that we saw on the 10th of May is coinciding with the highest closing price we saw on this data point before we see multiple weeks of downward price action. Now, I'm not going to say it's going to turn out exactly like this because it's not just the US dollar strength index that has an influence on the Bitcoin price action.

[00:06:27]Again, if we look at the global M2, people are looking towards this having this offset chart and thinking, "Well, global M2 has just made a new all-time high. It's not going to be long until we see Bitcoin do the exact same."

[00:06:38]But again, it's something that I've been trying to preach for a long time. Rather than focusing purely on data points, which historically have always trended pretty much in one direction.

[00:06:48]If we look at the rate of acceleration or deceleration, the rate of expansion and contraction in global M2 and global liquidity as opposed to just the outright chart that we see.

[00:06:58]Again, it's been an incredibly predictive chart for upcoming price appreciation or depreciation in the Bitcoin price.

[00:07:05]And we can see this is again coinciding with around a mid-May topping price before multiple weeks of somewhat bearish downside price action. Now again, I don't think that this is going to lead to lower lows than we have set. I could be wrong with that, of course. I think there's about a 20 to 25% chance that we could go around into the mid-50,000 dollar region. But I still think the base case is a 60,000 dollar low. And again, if you look back to the prediction video that we made in late 2025, we were anticipating almost a mini bear market throughout the summer of 2026 not having this year-long traditional four-year bear market.

[00:07:41]But again, I just feel like we haven't really met this time capitulation.

[00:07:48]And like I said, if we looked at that chart which is looking at the all-time high drawdowns, I think that's one way to look at it. But I think rather than looking at that, if we just look at the amount of time elapsed from the lows being set, it again gives us some insight into potentially how this bear market could continue to play out. So what I can do is add on this bar pattern here.

[00:08:08]There we go.

[00:08:09]Now this is from the previous Bitcoin bear market. So this is after the lows were already set, the lowest closing price that we saw.

[00:08:16]How did price action price action, sorry, play out following that? And we can see if we overlay this fractal onto the recent lows that we set during this bear market, then it actually looks like it play out somewhat to expectations. I mean, it would result in a big bump up trying the mid $9,000 region now, which I wouldn't necessarily anticipate to be the baseline price action that we'd see.

[00:08:38]But then it would reach resistance at this one-year moving average, historically what I would consider the almost dictating deciding point between bull and bear markets.

[00:08:46]And then it would actually come back down into the mid $70,000 region in around a month's time. So we'd have some more choppiness, uneasiness, and some tomfoolery, we'll say, to get some expectations that the bull market's back on before crushing people like the cruel mistress Bitcoin and markets in general seem to be.

[00:09:05]So again, that's looking towards about a mid-June before we'd really start rallying and giving some reassurances that the worst is definitely behind us.

[00:09:15]Similar story for the 2017-2018 bear market all the way back here. I guess it's 2019 bear market more so.

[00:09:23]But again, similar kind of thing. We did see this big massive run up, but this would lead us right into this resistance. And again, this would take a few weeks to really get to this point, but we wouldn't really again break above this deciding point convincingly to around mid-June.

[00:09:37]>> [clears throat] >> So again, kind of pointing towards the fact that this time-based capitulation just boring a majority investors out of the market maybe hasn't been reached yet. And especially if we add on the previous bear market, the one before that back here in 2015, this would be brutal. And again, I'm not expecting this to be the exact outcome that comes to fruition. But this would be chopping and convincing everyone that the lows are behind us and everything's all rosy and good and then chop down multiple more times before finally in around November time really convincing people and breaking back above this $100,000 region. Now, again, I don't think this is how it's going to play out and I I know I'm saying I'm not saying this time is different and I'm saying it's a small data set to look at previous bear markets and say, "Yeah, but they all did this, so I'm kind of expecting this."

[00:10:30]I understand there's some contradictions here.

[00:10:32]But bear markets are never this easy.

[00:10:34]There's not an obvious low and we just grind straight back up into a bull market. Usually there's some fake outs, there's some chop, there's enough time elapsed that people grow bored.

[00:10:47]And at that point, when people start really losing hope that we are going to get a recovery, is probably when we get the recovery. So, I know I kind of sound like a bit of a broken record and it's something that we're probably going to be considering probably going to be covering, sorry, a lot more over the coming weeks as well because again, we're at a pretty critical point in this Bitcoin market cycle, but I do think looking at the influence that we see in high-yield credit, the US dollar strength on a more year-on-year basis and the same for global M2 or global liquidity, it's pointing towards a little bit of uneasiness ahead of us, especially when we look at something like the active address sentiment indicator and just from a technical perspective as well.

[00:11:26]I'm still very bullish, but I just think we need to not get ahead of ourselves here. So just to summarize, while it's looking increasingly likely that we fully experience price-based capitulation for this Bitcoin bear market, there's usually also time-based capitulation, which is genuinely just boring investors out of the market and making people believe that I don't think Bitcoin's ever really truly going to recover. I don't think we're going to have another bull market. And at that point, not just the time not just the price-based, sorry. Not just oh my god, I think we're going to drop down to 40k, 30k. I think a lot of those people may have seen what's happening in Bitcoin and maybe come to a similar to conclusion as as we have on the channel that this time is looking like it could be different, but I don't think it's going to be drastically different. There's still going to be some similarities in what we can see. And it's not just Bitcoin specifically in pretty much all markets.

[00:12:16]It's very rarely almost a V-shaped recovery during a bear market. There's usually there's time-based capitulation as well.

[00:12:24]And especially considering we're at major resistance. We're looking at the 200 daily moving average. The short-term holder realized price, which we might dip beneath as well. The actual recent active address sentiment indicator. Got there in the end.

[00:12:36]I think we are going to have some cool off. I would love to be wrong on this. I would love to see Bitcoin prove me wrong and rally to the upside. Win-win. I either get some cheaper prices to continue aggressively dollar cost averaging in around hopefully that $70,000 region or my Bitcoin stack is worth considerably more and we start marching higher.

[00:12:55]But I think there will be some uncertainty ahead. Very rarely is it this easy. And I do just think don't have exceedingly bullish expectations for the immediate and short-term. Be pleasantly surprised if that does come to fruition, but be strategic, be emotionless and react to the data. And again, I got a lot of hate when I said I was expecting lower prices for Bitcoin as we broke beneath that one year. I got a lot of hate by saying I think the lows are in as soon as we hit $60,000 and started rallying higher.

[00:13:22]And now I'm sure I'm going to get a lot of people disagreeing with me by saying "I I think we're not going to just immediately break into a new bull market and there's going to be some some tough times ahead."

[00:13:33]Regardless, that's the way I see the data and I just want to tell it as it is. And one last thing before I sign off, I recently spoke at Bitcoin Vegas on a number of different panels, which was a lot of fun. The first one here is the Bitcoin supercycle here or is the four-year pattern still intact with Rational Root and some other great analysts in the space. So, if you haven't watched that, definitely recommend checking it out. It was a lot of fun. And as well as that, one on markets as well, where I was actually the moderator, just kind of asking some questions on where prediction markets could go. Definitely not my area of expertise, but I still think there's some good Bitcoin insights there as well. And along with that, there will be some other content coming out over the coming weeks regarding publications in Bitcoin Magazine, other interviews that I did, and hopefully some other news desk coverage and stuff that we can put together. But, as always, I hope you enjoyed this video and thank you all very much watching.

[00:14:21]Leave your thoughts below in the comments and on social media. I do look forward to reading and replying to most of them. The good ones, that is.

[00:14:27]And as always, I'll see you in the next one.

[00:14:31]>> [music]