Big tech earnings have validated the AI bulls' thesis: Wedbush's Ives

Ajouté : 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]Recent big tech earnings have been strong across the board and 2026 is on track to be an inflection point year for AI according to our next guest. Dan Ives joins us, managing director Wedbush Securities. Thank you so much for joining us today, Dan. We've had so many earnings crossing and there's still more to come. Cisco later this week already at a record. When we hear from Michael Burry, he suggests that investors are wrong-footed, that they're racing into one space. But the argument has been that there's so much uncertainty with geopolitics. AI demand is hot, investors want to be exposed to that a little bit like we saw post financial crisis with the Fang stocks. What's your perception as you see the earnings and the reality of the performance?

[00:00:36]>> Look, I think the reality these earnings has validated the AI bullish thesis. And I you know, we saw it last month when we were in Asia, demand to supply is 10 to 1 for chips. I mean, we are Look, we are in the early days still of the AI revolution. I think look, the haters will hate and we know that, but we're going to be talking about tech stocks for the coming years cuz I I think we're going in Nasdaq 30,000 as this all plays out given where I see now it spreads the second, third, fourth derivatives.

[00:01:07]>> Well, do the derivative and where you should be playing this. Investors have gone right back to the semiconductors now. They've looked at the issue that is in memory capacity with some of the chip makers, but they're also looking at the high-end AI side as well. So So what do you make of whether that is the right space to be exposed or would you go a little bit further away from that stock?

[00:01:24]Yeah, look, I think it's a memory super cycle. So when it comes to SK, when it comes to Micron Sandisk, I mean, we're very bullish in terms of what we're seeing there and that's not going to end anytime soon. But I you know, we talked about in our Ives AI 30, it's about playing the hyperscalers. Of course, chips. Then you have to play software, cybersecurity, some of the infrastructure, power, names like GE Vernova, Iron and others. I think that that speaks to my view. You can't just own one subsector, you have to own the derivative plays and I continue thinking this AI party started 9:30 p.m. It's now about 11:00 11:30 p.m. goes to 4:00 a.m.

[00:02:04]And now look and now like Intel, they're on the dance floor. I mean others are going to continue participate in it.

[00:02:09]Yeah, it's fascinating what has happened with Intel, but I want to just pick up on your point around moving further out down the line because the apocalypse moment for SaaS has been at the back of everybody's mind still. They're concerned about it. I was talking to VCs that saying look they they spend the whole time talking about the moat.

[00:02:23]They're really concerned that companies they've invested in as well that have just bringing in these amazing revenue numbers could at some point not. How do you navigate from the winners and losers when it feels as though that winner could be tomorrow's loser instantly?

[00:02:37]It's a great point. Look and I talk about it sometimes like an AI goose trade in terms of Anthropic the words it's going to essentially structurally break the software sector. Look I think you have to separate for you know winners and losers who has the moats. I think ServiceNow is a good example way overdone. Like I think that's an a good example of one the stack that they're going to build they're going to be able to ultimately monetize the AI revolution. I think Salesforce is another example. And now look at Adobe backs against the wall. They're going to need to really whether it's acquisitions maybe strategic more focused they're going to have to show it. So I think investors are painting it all with the same brush but when you look at say today cybersecurity CrowdStrike, Palo Alto I mean those are two golden opportunities that it's actually just going to get bigger based on what we see with AI. Um I hear you Dan and I'm I'm so repetitive and I'll come at it from exactly the same point as ever cuz I think the viewers always love the same conversation sometimes. Um is kind of almost a short chance if I can for this one. Is Nvidia still the best company out there making chips for AI going forward?

[00:03:44]>> Yeah and you always make great points in terms of like everything that we're seeing right now with AI. There's only one Godfather of AI and then that's Jensen. And it just speaks to everything starts the hearts and the lungs of AI is Nvidia.

[00:03:59]>> Right.

[00:04:00]Thank you for keeping that one short because this brings me to the point I wanted to make.

[00:04:04]If Nvidia is still the the Godfather, the best out there, so which which I thoroughly believe is the case, and you've already mentioned Intel, why do I have [laughter] to pay four times the price for Intel that I do for Nvidia when Nvidia is the standout fantastic company? You're I mean you're preaching to the choir. I mean I agree 100%. That's why I think Nvidia is one where even though I go like AMD, I think Lisa Su everything that is one now finally starting to get validated. When I look at Intel, that's one like look, it's had a huge run. I think they are well positioned relative, but I'd every day I'd rather own Nvidia over Intel.

[00:04:45]>> Isn't that taking away from it's kind of just says to me people are scatter-gunning, spraying money at it and they don't care about the valuation. They care about the momentum, which is great while it lasts, but then you've got this is happening. Nvidia's done well recently, but it's gone up here, whereas Intel's done this kind of thing. And then that just says to me that actually one of these days it's going to go like that.

[00:05:07]Look, I think part of what's happened, it's all about second, third, fourth derivatives. And investors are trying to figure out, okay, what's like in Nvidia, you know, you look at it and obviously that's been the historic trade. Now, is it Intel? Do you own AMD? Do you play the memory super cycle that's playing out? And then look, you could on as it goes, you know, there could be there will be areas of froth and we talk about it, but I think that's why as an investor you have to separate for who the winners, what are the valuations that they could grow into. That's been a whole argument with say in a Palantir, right? There've been many haters. They hated when it's in junior high school at $12, it despises it when it's $140. I believe that's going to a trillion-dollar market cap next 2 or 3 years, but they have to prove it. You have to ultimately see them executing, and that speaks to our view how you navigate in terms of this winners-losers bucket. Mhm. And if you were you know, if you're an investor and you're looking at um going beyond where the obvious winners would come from, you might have been wise enough you might have been lucky enough to pinpointed Intel and benefited from that 240% rise this year. SanDisk maybe what is it?

[00:06:17]560% rise. Um but it feels and correct me if I'm wrong, it feels like those windows to kind of ride that wave have have they gone? If someone hasn't ridden that wave, have they missed the opportunity?

[00:06:31]>> But but Tiago, I don't think so because the London cab drivers bearish on software. I mean, I could look at names like Datadog.

[00:06:38]If I was a week ago or 2 weeks ago, no one owned Datadog. Now now look at it. There's InterDigital, there's CrowdStrike, there's Palantir. I mean, I think on software look right now at salesforce.com, ServiceNow as just good examples. So it speaks to what we are talking about, the derivatives. You have to continue to look out and understand who ultimately are the infrastructure players that are going to win. I could argue Microsoft, there is a hundred hundred fifty dollars left that's not being factored in relative to I think that's still viewed pretty negatively in terms of Microsoft. So I think those are the opportunities a year ago, no one would own Alphabet. DOJ is going to break it up, AI is going to crush search. Now they have victory parties for Alphabet.

[00:07:24]>> Mhm. In which case, do you think um Apple will come to regret its strategy of not investing to the same level in the hardware, the infrastructure, the data center build out, instead relying this almost like pay as you go licensing and relying on others? I believe the table pounder in terms of large cap right now right here it's Apple because it's my view the consumer AI revolution is going to go through Cupertino that at WWDC there that's where they're going to start the Gemini deal then eventually what's going to happen is all the models whether it's you as Europe Asia they'll be on the phones you'll have an AI enabled device you're going to have more and more apps they're going to have a piece of that pie they're essentially a toll collector on the AI consumer highway. Why is open AI not going to be the toll collector because they're talking about coming up with a phone why isn't that this Nokia moment or Ericsson moment for Apple? Sure because there's 1.5 billion reasons why that's not going to happen to open AI because there's 1.5 billion iPhones and it speaks to many you know if you many people around the world they view as food water and their iPhone maybe Netflix as well.

[00:08:33]>> to the ecosystem. Yeah and the and that's the reality no one has an ecosystem like Cupertino it's about monetizing it that's why it will never be the Nokia or sort of Blackberry moment.