WILL THIS DOG BE BEST IN SHOW BY 2028???

[00:00:00]Hey guys, I'm back again with another video on the weekend. I just am feeling a little content hungry this weekend.

[00:00:07]So, I did want to go over um actually you know what? While I'm recording here, I'm just going to slide my camera over here. Makes it a little bit easier for you guys to see it.

[00:00:17]>> [snorts] >> Um, I did want to discuss a little bit more on Bitcoin and I want to talk about what my buy, my big buy of 2027 is going to be and it's cryptoreated.

[00:00:30]I wanted to talk about that and I want to provide some technicals on, you know, my my my reasoning behind the purchase and you can probably already guess what it's going to be if it's cryptoreated.

[00:00:39]Um, it's a stock though. So, first of all, I wanted to give you an update on my Bitcoin trend lines. And I actually looked at my trend line. Originally, I mentioned connecting these two wicks here and that we could potentially go down by October into the high 40s.

[00:00:57]Right. I'm actually going to in real time correct that trend line like this.

[00:01:02]I think this is a bit more interesting.

[00:01:04]This was an extreme wick. So, I'm allowing basically [snorts] if we were to have a major black swan event, we could come down here. But here's why I'm actually going to connect the wicks like so. One, we actually can see it's been hit already a few times.

[00:01:20]So, this is a pretty reliable trend line. And also, if you go back to the last bare market, I was actually doing the same thing. I drew originally like this and I noticed that was an extreme wick, but it never came down there when it bottomed. So you following my logic in a previous video, we should have gone to 12,500 on Bitcoin. We actually didn't go that low. So I drew dragged my trend line up to here and lo and behold, there's your bottom. Almost perfect. you know, if I'm being fully, you know, realistic, that's kind of more the trend line, but even then, that's credible enough. So, I did that and I said, "Okay, I'm going to do the same with this bare market.

[00:02:05]Maybe even have a little bit of a pierce to keep it honest."

[00:02:10]And then let's go to October where historically crypto should bottom given it'll be 12 months since the top was put in the first week of October. Where would that put us?

[00:02:24]About roughly around in the 54,000 area.

[00:02:28]Maybe a slight pierce, but 54,000.

[00:02:31]So anyway, that's something I just wanted to bring to your attention. If we want to use this, if to be a little extra conservative, it could go by the first week of October, we could go to 48,000. That's why I'm giving a range, right? That 48, I said 49 to 53. Again, guys, I'm not going to call it to the penny, but I'm thinking I'm still standing by do if we get an extreme wick, we could go to 48. But there's this trend line here that seems pretty accurate that by early if it's early October, if that's when the bottom is put in, that would put us around 54,000 on Bitcoin. So, I mean, realistically, we're not that far away. And if we go to the 12-month chart, we can see, you know, I'm not breaking news here, but every four years, 2022, red, one, two, three, four, red. 2018, red. And we can see from the previous all-time high, three candles later, we've always had a new all-time high here. 1 2 3.

[00:03:32]And then if we go to this bull market, there's your high one, two, three. Now, a lot of people will point out um that Bitcoin put in an all-time high ahead of schedule. And they're right in saying that, but if we just look at the 12-month chart, and if you're doing a longer term swing, meaning like the basically two to three years on Bitcoin for the next bull market, all you care about is this yearly candle. And we've always put in and closed above the previous all-time high by the end of the third year after the previous top. Okay?

[00:04:04][snorts] So 1 2 3 close above this wick here. And then previous all-time high 1 2 3 close above the previous wick. So this was our previous top. And now a lot of traders will say, "Oo, this is the first red candle in the final year of the bull market we've ever had. Maybe things are changing." And I'm going to my opinion on that is no. The reason why we got this candle like this is because the bare market happened earlier. It happened in October because the havingss are happening earlier as well. And the cycles therefore are topping earlier in the final year of the bull market. Which is why probably in 2029 we're probably going to top if history repeats again.

[00:04:46]Repeats again. That's sort of a redundant. Those words are redundant.

[00:04:50]If that were to repeat September of 2029 would h so it would happen even earlier.

[00:04:54]But my point with this candle is because we topped earlier that gave November December that was two addition that was two months of downside that pushed price down and made this close negative. So I don't see that I mean you can even see in 2021 we were we were starting to wick you know there's a lot of wick put in here because price started falling in November December right? So, had that had Bitcoin had that extra month, it could have I don't think it would have closed uh beneath here, right? It could have I mean, it was very volatile back then, but I'm just making the illustration that I'm not scared by this candle. This would um it's not a good candle obviously, but we're getting that downside that this candle was obviously foretelling. [snorts] So, I just wanted to point out those technicals. The stock I wanted to talk about today is everyone keeps asking me about strategy and and I just I'm obsessed with this name. Um I think it's a fascinating um stock because just the story it's telling is so similar. I mean say Sailor is the founder of this company co-founder he um you know was buying Bitcoin I think originally in 2020 and his stock therefore um it was able to it go through a bare market. So we have a little bit of history of what Micro Strategy does. The only issue compared to Bitcoin is it's only one bare market. This is our second bare market with strategy. So, we don't have, you know, Bitcoin has three previous cycles. Unfortunately, we only have this previous single cycle with strategy. Um, but nonetheless, I think it's useful enough um in considering how accurate this this chart resembles this chart. You got to sort of zoom in here.

[00:06:38]And I've talked about this a decent amount, but I'm going to get into it a little bit more right in this video.

[00:06:44]blowoff top sort of occurred in the first big move by Bitcoin post having.

[00:06:50]So if your swing trading strategy is this is going to be my buy of 2027, the one that I think will outperform um which I know sounds crazy. So I'm going to save this video and see in the next year and a half if if it ages well. Um, but you can see what's interesting about strategy is I'm going to basically get into a long-term option on strategy around the end of this year and it's going to be a swing trade in my swing trading account for two years. Um, I'm going to be taking profits on if we if history repeats with Bitcoin and we get that big pump around the election time in 2028, maybe a little after, I'm going to be closing the trade on strategy, my swing trade. Now, why would I do that?

[00:07:34]Because the top was in on strategy. It tops be before Bitcoin. [snorts] So, the next leg up in Bitcoin, which is usually its final move in the last year of the bull market. Strategy puts in a lower high. So, what I would do with strategy is I'm going to try to buy the bottom at the end of this bare market.

[00:07:52]I don't think I'm going to really ever sell it. I'm just going to ride some of the some of the consolidation until we get to the end of that right around the election of 2028.

[00:08:03]Um I expect, you know, history could repeat here and then I'm going to be taking profits and I would buy strategy for a swing, a shorter swing trade once it comes down to the 50WE, which is actually what we did in the last cycle.

[00:08:16]You can see actually we didn't we almost we got it there here and we wrote it up.

[00:08:22]You bought it again, you wrote it up.

[00:08:24]You can just swing this off the 50we even more so in the LA the cycle we're in now.

[00:08:31]Look at that. If you sold here, I mean enough to sell the exact top, right? But if you sold somewhere around here and you just let it come down when it hit the 50we, you could have been dollar cost averaging making sure you don't miss the move. Rode it up for a for about a month and then make sure you're out of the trade. And then to make it even make it even juicier when you get to that what what is it the cycle on average is about around 1,60 days I think when you get to that,60day mark which will be September of 2029 you short you get into leap puts on strategy because what we did last time with MSTR I mean just to give you a sense of you know is the bottom in on this I think it's almost 90% chance we're not the bottom is not in maybe let's say 80% % to not get too carried away. But we can see this went to $13. I looked it up. It went down 90%.

[00:09:27]What's incredible is that strategy because it's high beta, high risk for its Bitcoin leverage. So it we we that needs no introduction what that means.

[00:09:36][snorts] It's gone down. It's underperformed um as badly as it has pretty well in the last cycle. Whereas Bitcoin obviously has not and probably will not go down as much as it did in 2022. But strateg strategy interestingly is um already been down. I mean from the top we're already down 85%.

[00:09:57]So that's why the part of me thinks okay if we went to that 50 uh 200 month moving average look where we are 5350 and [snorts] I was telling my money team today that the being down 90% was about yeah 5375 was I think the number I gave.

[00:10:17]And look, and if you want to add confluence here, I showed this in my last video.

[00:10:26]Uh, sorry, is it the the monthly, not the yearly?

[00:10:33]The yearly, we can see in the last bare market. Now, we actually got there ahead of schedule in the last bare market. So, there's an argument that because we never actually got there that this could be the bottom. But guys, I'm still going to wait until the end of the year because even then, this at least swept the low at the end of the year at the end of the bare market year. So, I would expect at minimum we're going to sweep the low. This is minimum $80. We sweep it again uh around the end of the year. But I am expecting us to have a flush potentially down to the 200 uh week moving a uh 200E moving 200 month moving average, pardon me. We did it here. If history repeats, it would be this is going to go a little higher, right? So, by the time we get there, it might be around look at that $51, $52. Now, I want to be clear that is my worst case scenario. Am I only buying if I see price at $53 on strategy? No. If we get to November, December, and this is only at 80 or $70, I'm going to be buying, right? I'm not I'm going to be more focused on timebased capitulation as opposed to price based capitulation. [snorts] Uh because I do believe the bare market is going to bottom when it always has bottomed. So I just want to give you my input on that. Now here's the crazy thing that I don't want to put false hope in anyone. But I drew this trend line with strategy right here. Boom.

[00:11:58]Boom. Very comparable to Bitcoin as you can see.

[00:12:05]Um, this is Yeah, I think I maybe I think I took away the trend line by mistake. So, if you can see me do this in real time, you can see boom boom. If I had drawn this back in 2022, I wasn't trading crypto back then, but if I was, I would have called the top. That's how incredible that is. I would have called the top before the bare market was even over. Now, that's incredible. That's powerful. So, if we game this out, if crypto were to top in September of 2029, which is my prediction, uh, subject to change on based on any black or white swan, well, more black swan events, that would beund $178,000 as a top. That would be if we bought them on Bitcoin. And I'm going to get back to strategy in a second, but if we bought so we went so 54, let's just say, and we went up to 178,000, it's about a 230% move. Now, the bull case would be we've already hit this three times. What do we know about trend lines? Once you hit them more than three times, they get weaker. So in a uber bullish case, I'm not going to make this prediction outright on this on this show today, but we get up, you know, at some point maybe even in the in the post in the in the having year, maybe by October, November, and this this actually breaks at 166. So, we put in that new all-time high in 2028. We break, we have a correction in 2029 somewhere around here. So, we break out, we get up to like close to 200, we come down to the 170s and then we go higher into 2029 and then top again. Those are just my thoughts. I but I think my base case for for crypto in the next cycle is 178,000.

[00:14:05]I can already make that prediction. If you had done the same back here, you would have called the top um four years, four four and a half years before it ever happened. That's the power of trend lines. So, [snorts] in closing, back to strategy, just I'm just keeping it simple, guys.

[00:14:20]We don't need to over complicate this with a thousand indicators on our chart.

[00:14:23]Literally, one trend line and a few moving averages and chart patterns.

[00:14:26]That's it. That's all I teach in my Discord.

[00:14:29]Um, and here I am today telling you I now there was no way to know this was the top because this was the first um hit of the trend line. So I I can only connect it once I know the second hit.

[00:14:41]But now if this was Bitcoin, so pretend that was me and Bitcoin back in 2021 and I was to say, "Oh, well in four years we'll be up here." That takes us to September of 20. Well, hold on a second.

[00:14:53]We know strategy tops earlier. So, let's say um November of 2028, something like that. Okay, that puts us at about $975 on strategy. I would not uh because this topped earlier as well, right? This didn't top when Bitcoin topped. Same with this did not top when Bitcoin. So, that's an important caveat, an important exception.

[00:15:17]Okay, so just that is my price target for strategy. If you want my answer, I'm am I going to say with 100% certainty I think that's going to happen? No. It sounds completely bonkers, but using the same rule of of Bitcoin four years ago, I would have been right if I had done that. I didn't make that prediction to be clear. It's easy to be hindsight capped in hindsight. But if we apply the same rules, the micro strategy which is younger in terms of it's it being invested in Bitcoin. So, you know, us following the four-year cycle with MSTR, we we've only have a one cycle to do that technically, right? So, I'm kind of Yeah, we started in 2021. Here's our second cycle, our third cycle. that would get us. So, say we bottomed at $53 give or take, right? And we go to 975.

[00:16:10]That's about a basically a 1,700% return. The last cycle it was, again, these videos are a bit longer because I like to explore with you guys while I'm going through it. I don't I don't pre-plan usually any of this. A little bit sometimes, but a lot of this is just in real time, guys.

[00:16:28]$13 was our bottom. I looked that up beforehand. We went up 4,000%. So, it would make I mean that's I'm not expecting that again to be clear.

[00:16:38]Obviously, if we want to be permables and I'm not going to do that to you because I think that's giving I'm I'm I'm that's a disservice to my followers because I don't want them to get the wrong impression. But, you know, could we break the trend line? Anything's possible. My only thing is that would be the third hit. The third hit is more likely to be respected because it's a third hit. I would not expect it to break out. This is still strong resistance. So when we get up in that that 2028 which has always been very bullish for uh strategy stock as since it started investing in Bitcoin. I want to be clear on that. So 2024 super bullish but also a top year. 20 sorry 2024. Yeah 2024 and then 2020 was also its top year. Okay. So one year before Bitcoin you get your top put in. And so if we go to 2028, like I said one more time, roughly give or take, that's 975. And maybe we break it out, but I I don't think that's going to happen. So that would give us 1,700% upside in two, it's a two-year swing trade. And what I'm going to do, I you know, I think again, if everything goes according to plan, everyone has a plan until you're punched in the face as as Mike Tyson says. But say that were to happen, this were to pull back to that 50we and you just ride it up for a few months. I just do a casual swing trade with probably a one-year option. I ride it up for a couple months. Maybe you got another 40 50% out of that in in share value, which would be leveraged in options and then you just take profit before the cycle before the cycle tops and then you short it into the winter.

[00:18:10]If you want, you can do that. I mean, I was calling strategy a short. I remember it. I was not calling it here. I said once we rejected off the 200 day, it was right around here at 360 and then the gurus on YouTube started coming out saying just short you short short it when it was at 150 and I'm like guys we were riding it down. I I actually sometimes I was doing a little bit of swing trading with calls and it it started not working and that's when I was like oh we're actually beginning a downtrend. So I started shorting it.

[00:18:36][snorts] I think I got in the biggest when I was was when it was in the twos but the point is I was like yeah this is probably rolling over at 360 and look where it's gone. It's now flagged and it's gone lower.

[00:18:48]So I think right now it's just sit sit on your hands. I mean if you go up 1 1700% in the next cycle guys multiply that by three in a leap option. What is that 17 34 40? That's 51 basically about probably uh um a 50x on your options. Um that's if you're going to hold it and that's only two years. And that's the beautiful thing about strategy. If history repeats, you don't even have to hold it for the whole bull market cycle, which is about three years, right?

[00:19:16]Recovery year, uh, accumulation of markup, right? So, I would say um, and then the last year, you just you just do like a three-month swing trade in during that final lower high when it's put in and you buy off the 50we. That's my plan with strategy. It's that simple. Keep it simple until until it fails, right?

[00:19:34]That's what I'm looking to do. So, this is going to be my buy for 2027. And I'm going to sound crazy, but if you go to Google right now and type what articles were being written about Micro Strategy in 2022, it literally sounds exactly the same as it is now. Um, and that's where I would just say, you know, there is the here's the risk, right? Because this I'm making this sound like it's a sure thing. I want to be clear, it's not. But what could be the risk next cycle? One, Bitcoin is going to zero, which I think is not happening. or two, the dilution from him buying so much Bitcoin is going to um b has wrecked so much havoc on shareholder value that this will not put in a new high. It might only it might just do what the miners did. The miners really didn't the miners didn't put in a new all-time high um in the in this the last cycle in the 2024 cycle, right?

[00:20:25]They were they were weak. So, there's always that risk. Uh but I do think this will continue as Bitcoin leverage. It's sort of the darling. It's the one you love in the bull market and and it's the one that everyone hates in the bare market and I think strategy as long as it stays in business which I think it will survive. I mean a lot of people thought Salana was going out of business when FTX collapsed. I do believe this stock will come back. I do believe that and not only do I believe it, I'm going to be buying it at the end of the year and it's going to be my buy for 2027 and then I will be holding it in 2028. Uh though there will be there will be consolidation. There's going to be pullbacks. This thing will go down 30 to 40% during the bull market. It just will easily. I [snorts] mean, you can see here when it was consolidating in 2024 before it broke out, we went down.

[00:21:10]Yeah. 15 cut in half, guys. It just will do that. So, you can ask yourself, you know, if this gets to an overbought level on the on the monthly RSI around 80, you can take profit and avoid the big draw down. You just don't want to risk overtrading this. We know after two years since the bottom's put in, this thing will usually moon. Um, so if it does the same, I'm that's what I'm looking for. I'm looking for this to have another ascension, put in a new all-time high, and I like that it was able to do that. But again, guys, Ethereum basically just uh re retested its uh 2021 high. So, we have no guarantees this is going to repeat, right? But even then, if you bought Ethereum at $800 where it bottom, you still did very well if you were swing trading it for the bull market. So those are my that's my input today. Strategy to me is an absolute buy between $50 to $55. However, if we get to November of this year and we're consolidating around around $80 where we where we were where we previously bottomed, then I'm going to have to accept that that $50 is likely off the table and I'm going to be a buyer. So that's my game plan for strategy stock going into 2027. I hope that that was useful for you and I'll see you guys in the next video. Cheers.