Solana vs Bitcoin: Which Asset Is Weaker?

[00:00:00]Solana is currently consolidating below the very first resistance and we want to talk in this video about the latest structure on the micro pattern chart on the micro chart on a short time frame. I want to give you an idea of the nearest support and resistance levels and we also compare Solana's performance to Bitcoin's. So, we'll take a look at the SOL BTC chart in this video.

[00:00:27]We start with the daily time frame, I believe. It is important to really get a good idea of the overall bigger picture before we dive into the micro structures and Solana remains, just like Bitcoin, in a downtrend, remains under pressure.

[00:00:41]This move to the upside, in my opinion, is in no way different to any of these previous three-wave corrective rallies that we had in this bear market and so for now, I cannot confirm and [clears throat] I do not see any reason to confirm that a major low has formed.

[00:01:00]Of course, I'm watching for it. Of course, I'm tracking for signs that maybe a substantial low has already formed.

[00:01:07]Look, technically, this could be classed as a completed correction, which is the orange scenario.

[00:01:15]However, honestly, without a break at least above the initial resistance, specifically here, the resistance line at 90, where are we here? Hold on. At ni- yeah, $98.50, there is absolutely no sign that the bulls are taking the lead. The main reason is that the move to the upside from the June low is a very clear three-wave move.

[00:01:39]And at the moment, this pattern can be classed as a wave two bounce, which is very similar to what Bitcoin is doing, as well.

[00:01:46]And as soon as Bitcoin forms a local top in its own resistance area, Solana might follow because these two assets are very closely related and correlated.

[00:01:57]So, for now, the idea is this is just a corrective bounce. Of course, Solana might form one more high in this wave two, and I show you on the smaller time frame how this could play out. But, as soon as the price breaks below the last swing low here from end of June at around $64.30, we might have a confirmation that wave two has topped, and we're on our way to $48.80, or maybe even $43.22.

[00:02:25]These are the next key support levels.

[00:02:28]And now, this is the shorter time No, not the shorter time frame. This is the Solana Bitcoin chart. Um look here on this chart, SOL/BTC remains rather in a downtrend. Yeah, we have a short-term bounce from the low in June, around the 10th of June, but it was on unfortunately just a three-wave move up. I mean, what might happen is that maybe here a slightly larger bounce is unfolding as an ABC structure.

[00:02:55]So, that would allow for Solana to outperform Bitcoin maybe in the very short term here once more as it did from the June lows, but really that is nothing uh significant. The overall pressure here remains clearly down on this chart um until we actually see the very first upside impulse. Uh there is absolutely nothing that would tell me that Solana is starting to outperform Bitcoin. I would need to see a five-wave move up from the June low, not just a three-wave move up to confirm that SOL/BTC has actually formed the low, which means should Bitcoin form another low at the moment, it will likely mean that Solana will continue to bleed against Bitcoin. This is something very important.

[00:03:44]Okay. And so, before we dive into the micro structures, quick reminder, if you're interested in further updates on Solana, you can also always uh check out what I say on X. There are many additional updates also on XRP. So, it's the more crypto online channel and here you get, yeah, basically additional updates nearly 24/7. But, bear bear in mind, there are impersonators, there are scammers, so make sure you only follow the one with the golden check mark.

[00:04:14]So, let's take a look now at the shorter time frame for Solana.

[00:04:21]Specifically, I would like to take a look at the 1-hour time frame for Solana. You can see that the bounce, let's say small rally, from the June low unfolded only as a very clear three-wave move up and so this doesn't really present a very bullish structure right now. Doesn't mean it's directly bearish, but it means that we do not have any evidence that a major low formed in June.

[00:04:47]Um, rather the market moved into the resistance got rejected from the 61.8 retracement level at $82, then pulled back into support at $74. The main support area here for this range is between $74 and $64.68.

[00:05:06]This is the standard support zone based on the rally after the June low all the way into the July highs.

[00:05:13]Um, I've added to the chart a small micro resistance area and you can see that we're currently testing it. The bounce from the last swing low after the price reacted here to the $74 support level, the bounce afterwards really looks corrective in nature, like a three-wave advance. So, the price has now reached the very first micro resistance area.

[00:05:36]Look, any five-wave decline from here could indicate the start of the next move down, possibly in the white count, a C wave to the downside. I would not try to put too much weight here on each of the micro structures road maps. What we do not have is a five-wave move up, so no sign that a major low is in. We don't have a break above any resistance, and so Solana remains range bound at the moment. I already mentioned a break below the 25th of June low at around $64 would be a confirmation that a Yeah, that probably the next decline has started um and that the bear market continues.

[00:06:16]At this stage, I can't rule out a wider wave two bounce, and as I said, as long as Bitcoin remains in a bounce, Solana might follow, but this could simply lead to a test of the upper resistances around $89.27 or $94. It might not mean full breakout to the upside. The move to the upside from the June low is very clearly corrective in nature, so it doesn't support the idea of a full breakout at this stage.

[00:06:45]Yeah, so I hope this was helpful. If you're interested to dive a little bit deeper, as I said, feel free to follow us on X. And for those of you who want to learn Elliott Wave, get access to all of our data, our charts, make sure you check out our gold membership. There's a link in the comment section that also gives you a 50% discount if you use the voucher code. And with our gold membership, you get access to our Discord feed, the analysis, live charts, you can ask questions on Discord, you can connect to the community, and you can also get access to our terminal with more than 70 indicators and tools for different asset classes including crypto. Plus, we also have an academy here that allows you to really get access to our Elliott Wave course. You can go through a structured learning path. You can browse the library, watch videos.

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