Anpanman - Space is Hard: The New Glenn Anomaly and the SpaceMobile Pivot

本站添加: 2026-05-31

[00:00:07]This is the AST space mobile podcast.

[00:00:11]>> And we just basically bundle phone and be seamless regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to know that is connected by satellite.

[00:00:21]Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.

[00:00:29]>> Hey everyone.

[00:00:30]Never a dull day in space.

[00:00:33]Uh I'm using my headset here, so I want to make sure you guys can hear me. Everyone the folks can give me a thumbs up. Let me know if I'm coming in okay or I guess if someone in the chat can tell me if I'm doing all right. But anyway, um let's see. Yeah, unfortunately, some bad news tonight. There's there's no positive spin on this. Unfortunately, um Blue Origin New Glenn 4 had an anomaly.

[00:00:58]It looks like something ignited around the engines and um I think the most important thing is, you know, for folks to wait and see what exactly um what exactly the investigation finds out or, you know, as opposed to I guess there's like rampant speculation online of of what happened and perhaps like there's even there's even more damage. Um but yeah, this evening there was a static fire of New Glenn 4 ahead of the Amazon Leo launch and of course um you guys saw the fireball that the vehicle blew up. And so, um was pretty spectacular explosion and it took out most of SLC 36. And so, that launchpad is out of commission. Um my guess is that um it's going to be months, perhaps longer for that uh launchpad to be brought back to service. However, they were building another launchpad nearby which going to which was going to accommodate the you know, the current 7x2 7x2 New Glenn, but also the the bigger uh 9x4 New Glenn. And so, um I think there's this perspective that uh when they rebuild or when they build a pad, rebuild a pad, um they're not going to rebuild the one that just got destroyed, they're going to focus on the new one because um obviously there's there's no rubble or wreckage that you need to remove. And so, you're going to have to you can go much faster by building that one. And then of course, you know, they'll in parallel they'll they'll rebuild this one. But uh what does this mean for Blue Origin?

[00:02:32]You're going, well, I can tell you that Blue Origin New Glenn is not going to fly for probably the rest of this year is my guess. Um that's just me speculating, but uh I would not be um uh optimistic that it will fly again this year because even even if the uh the original you know, never tell me odds booster, you could use that and some of the other second stages, um they're going to have to rebuild the pad, right? And um but I think key thing is understanding what happened here. And I think it's really important to take a step back, take a deep breath.

[00:03:06]Everyone do it together with me. Um it's important to understand that these rocket programs, like this is part of the process. I hate to say it, but this is space and it's hard. And you're going to have setbacks like this where you learn um you learn from, you know, mistakes or you know, iterations in the design.

[00:03:27]And then something doesn't work out and then you go back to the drawing board, you fix it, and you go back. And you do it again, right? And that's what um SpaceX went through in the Falcon 9 program. That's what they're currently going through with Starship, which um you know, there's they're obviously trying to solve probably the hardest problem out there, which is returning a second stage after um you know, going through orbit and coming in very quickly, right?

[00:03:51]Um cuz that's very different than landing a booster. So, I think it's important that, um, people, you know, this is part of investing in space. This is why these companies trade at at high valuations, right? Cuz it's it's hard to pull this stuff off, and once you do, the rewards are high, but the risks are high as well. Um, so, this is just part of being a space investor. Like, you're going to have these setbacks. Um, even, you know, we saw in all its glory, Starship, you know, end its mission in a in a fireball, um, last week. And, you know, people have become kind of become accustomed to that. And, unfortunately, in this instance, um, there is launch pad damage, right?

[00:04:33]And, if if folks recall, like, the first Starship test, um, that first Starship actually destroyed the launch pad. And so, they had to go in and reinforce it and come up with a different design in actual time. And so, all this stuff takes time.

[00:04:45]But, that said, it's important, um, I think Cook I see Cook in the audience.

[00:04:50]Cook said it well, um, AST SpaceMobile is not Blue Origin. We are not the same company. Uh, obviously, you know, there there are some economic and future business tied together, and we are going to rely heavily on Blue Origin New Glenn.

[00:05:06]Um, at least that was plan A. Plan B is to book more Falcon 9 launches. And so, from what I understand, you know, whether it's four or five Falcon 9 launches, I believe that's what we have, um, booked for this year. And then, the company can book additional launches, right? And so, it will take a little more time, um, cuz Falcon 9 can only carry three three satellites at a time.

[00:05:30]Um, there's also, you know, the conversations that are going on with ULA Vulcan, or not conversations. We've signed something with ULA Vulcan Centaur, uh, which can take five satellites at a time. And so, the question is, when does that vehicle become available, which I think we, for this year, are on a standby, so if any cargo doesn't show up, then we can basically slot right in to the manifest.

[00:05:53]But, um but yeah, for all intents and purposes, I think, you know, in the grand scheme of things, and this is where perspective comes into play, if you look at where things are for the for the company for 2027, 2028, 2029, you know, do you things probably shift by two, three months? Yeah, absolutely. They're going to have to shift, right? And I think will um in an upcoming, you know, update for Q2, they'll have to say, you know, 45 is not likely, it's going to be 30, or whatever it is, 25 to 30, and then you can move that over to, um you know, the the target for 45 probably ends up being sometime in Q1, or probably early Q2.

[00:06:38]And so, in the grand scheme of things, like it does that impact your net present value of the business? And and, you know, no, not in my opinion. Um I think it's also important to understand like the bottlenecks this has created, and so, on the one hand, um the setback with Starship, uh or not setback, they're just ongoing yeah, testing and eventual get eventually getting to commercial cadence, um so, what the current playing field looks like right now is that you have Starlink direct to cell, there's 650 satellites um up in orbit, and those obviously are very low performance.

[00:07:15]Um the next iteration is the V2 satellites, which is, um you know, the the company's hoping to get that and launched sometime in 2028, 2029, um if Starship is ready by then, and then you also have, um you know, the spectrum from EchoStar that has to be integrated into handsets, and so, that's kind of like the primary competitor that you're competing against, um and that's that's the that those satellites are comparable to Block 2 satellites, which, you know, we just sent three down to Cape Canaveral, and we've got more on the way. Um, and so in terms of like the competitive dynamics, you know, Starship, obviously, they're they're having issues coming to commercial cadence. You know, Blue Origin, it seemed like things were going great, and then, of course, this anomaly happened with serial. Um, and this is a new booster, right? This is a booster that hasn't flown. Um, Never Tell Me the Odds has flown twice successfully. This one was brand new, and um, obviously, had an anomaly. So, so they'll have to do an investigation and see if, for example, um, this is just me speculating, but um, if Never Tell Me the Odds was a particular design, and then they were like, "Hey, we're going to make these improvements for this third booster." Um, you know, then there might be some issues that they find with that third booster, where they will say, "Okay, well, these are the differences between the two, and during static fire, we saw these things happen, and so this probably what the issue is, right? And and Yeah, one of the things that I I'm not as familiar with, but um, the FAA This is not an FAA investigation, since it was a hot fire test, and so I'm not sure exactly which regulatory body this falls under, but I you know, obviously, there'll be an investigation um, by the company, and then, you know, fixes. Then, the key question is, how quickly can they build the second launch pad, which they were already in process of doing, um, and then they'll parallel this one. So, I think um, I think that's going to be the bottom neck is is the, you know, building the the the new launch pad.

[00:09:19]Um, and so maybe one of the things that folks should do, which I I will do. I mean, I I guess I could just ask Jack Shephard, but um, you know, one of the key questions is, how quickly did they build launch SLC-36?

[00:09:32]Um, but going back to what I was saying before about speculation, I think it's It's that people take um, take a deep breath and not read everything that they see online. Like there's I'll just point this one guy out. Um, there's this like newer guy who who's written about AST and he writes about other names as well. Um, interestingly or or not surprisingly he he posted, um, Okay, he deleted the post. This guy, um, this guy posted something that was AI slop and as part of it he was saying that Falcon 9's going to be grounded too because it's launching from SLC 36 which is completely false, right? Like Uh, I don't even know how any AI would have hallucinated on that, but um, for folks that don't know like as um, you know, Falcon 9 launches from I think it's like SLC 39 and then another launch pad as well. Um, so you know, SpaceX has two launch pads. Uh, Blue Origin has one and they're working on a second one, but um, but this this guy who wrote this article which is now deleted, um, it caused like people to ask like, "Oh, I guess Falcon 9's going to be delayed too." Um, but no, that's not the case.

[00:10:40]Falcon 9 launches in a completely different complex. It makes absolutely zero sense that they would launch from the same uh, launch pad, but um, but yeah, then I I saw like Eric Berger who's this reporter and he like talks to people uh, in the industry and he was saying that and by the way, I'm just like kind of sharing some of the the the speculation, but um, he was saying that, "Oh, there's this potential that Blue Origin just moves on from from the current New Glenn and goes to New Glenn Heavy." Um, similar to what relatively Relativity did with Terran.

[00:11:14]If if folks recall, um, they were building a medium lift rocket and they were a small lift rocket and then when they have an anomaly they said, "You know what? We're just not going to keep going with this one. We're going to move on to the next program." Um, and so that's what Eric Berger is speculating, but um, this guy has I I will say he has put out news that has been completely wrong multiple times and so at this point I would just ignore what the guy said is saying and just focus on you know, what the what the formal statements are from the companies whether that's Virgin or obviously you know, the the administrators who are who are going to who are going to be invested in this which as I said before I don't think this is in the purview of the FAA because it's not a vehicle that actually went up and launched it was just a test.

[00:12:02]And so I'm not sure what the the investigations will be there. I am going to bring up Jacob who I guess he's been following this too. He asked he said he might have some nuggets too. So I'm going to bring him up here in the conversation but um let's see if I fell away. But I I do think it's important as I said before like this is part of investing in space like you're going to have setbacks.

[00:12:25]I know there there was talk about like the Neutron Rocket Lab Neutron had one of the casings I think like cracked which is good like you um I know someone was like trying to make a big stink out of it but in rocket development programs you want this type of stuff you want this you know, you want these anomalies to happen now versus later when there's important cargo or if there's humans on the rocket right and so this is just part of the process. I think um you know, maybe perhaps like and this is you know, we we've all been spoiled by almost the regular cadence and taxi you know, a very reliable launch vehicle like Falcon 9 whereas for some of these new vehicles there is absolutely risk and and you are going to have these setbacks.

[00:13:15]It's just part of the process. But um yeah, I mean I think this evening obviously AST SpaceMobile some some people were asking like why is AST down?

[00:13:25]Well, it's down because you know, AST is has booked a pretty decent amount of Virgin New Glenn launches. And so, in order to get to 45 um, satellites by the year, um, a decent amount of those were going to be on Virgin New Glenn. And so, what the company has to do right now is they're going to have to pivot. So, we have probably five Falcon 9 launches booked for this year.

[00:13:48]And my guess is there's options for more. And so, the company will have to pay the money and execute those options, right? And as a result of that, uh, it's going to cost a little more, um, but you're going to have certainty, right?

[00:13:59]Like you're going to have certainty that those satellites are going to be up there. Um, part of the, you know, one of the things that, I guess I would say, um, this does introduce like a a weird dynamic in the internet industry because I think there there obviously was a decent amount of cargo that was supposed to go up on New Glenn. And and for massive, this is a big setback, right?

[00:14:18]Because you had a number of programs, whether it's getting back to the moon, but also, um, for for the military, there were there were going to be launches at after certification of four of four New Glenn launches, there was going to be military cargo that was going to go up as well.

[00:14:34]And so, all these things are going to get pushed out. Um, and I think for and this is another important point. I think for smaller space companies, um, this is not good, right? Because I think New Glenn was going to alleviate some of the capacity, um, issues, which, in in all fairness, like I think one important thing to keep in mind is that Falcon 9 does have a pretty significant amount of capacity. Um, it's a matter of like, if you're a willing and a willing customer who has money to pay for that capacity, um, which often times a lot of companies, especially startups, um, will have to resort to like ride shares. And so, those are pretty capacity constrained, but if you have money and you have probably that's ready to go, um, it's not as if you're going to be turned away.

[00:15:19]And so, it's a matter of for for SpaceX, um do they launch their own satellites or do they take customer cargo, which I think, you know, if if there was a an abundance of customer cargo, they'd be more than happy to fly to space. So, at this point, I think, um the key takeaway for AST SpaceMobile, um this is definitely a setback for the company. Um so, obviously the stock is down 9% um in overnight markets.

[00:15:45]Um but then the key question uh that folks should ask themselves is, you know, what Scott, you know, Scott Wisniewski and and Abel Avellan, they certainly have plan B, they have plan C. Um they're the reason why they were speaking or they they got into a a or they they hired another launch provider, which is ULA.

[00:16:06]They also, um you know, I'm not sure how far these discussions have gone, but they've been talking to Arianne, um and also Mitsubishi Heavy. In particular for Arianne, um some of the news that we found out uh yesterday is that uh as part of the European 2 GHz spectrum allocation, it looks like utilizing Arianne is going to be one important aspect of getting an allocation, which makes sense. Um in order to support um the European Union, you're going to need to use their launch. And so, um there's a reason why, for example, AST is talking to ARI. So, um so, I think it's important to, you know, take a step back and and make sure that you understand, in terms of your investment, that the company is launch agnostic.

[00:16:53]Uh and can utilize whether it's Arianne, you know, five Bluebird satellites, Mitsubishi Heavy, three satellites, um ISRO, uh which is two satellites. And by the way, like, I know people were making fun of ISRO back in the day, which um I will say, like, if you have the rocket is reliable, then they they did get Bluebird 6 up to orbit. And um and Bluebird 6 obviously was much much heavier than the composite bird.

[00:17:18]So, they can do two at a time and so I wouldn't be surprised that we might see some bookings with them as well. But beyond that, um you know, ULA Vulcan Centaur can take in in the six solid rocket booster configuration can take um can take um five satellites and then of course Blue Origin New Glenn can take up to eight and once you know, once it's fully back up to cadence which um obviously they've got still still got things to work out.

[00:17:44]And then um and then of course Falcon 9 can take three, but if we can uh if we can actually reduce some of the weight there then you know, you might be able to take four. Someone's saying here um ULA Vulcan uses BE-4 engines. Yes, that's true. And so if there was an engine if there was a problem with the engine then that could put Vulcan um you know, that that that could put them I guess it could delay them maybe a few months depending on what the problem is.

[00:18:14]But um but at this point we don't know, right? Like I think there was some speculation too that perhaps there was some issues with the uh the tanks or the the feeding you know, maybe the feeding lines maybe something happened there and um that caused the explosion. I mean, who knows? Like we're all we're all speculating at this point.

[00:18:32]But um I see Jacob raised his hand. So, hey Jacob, how's it going?

[00:18:37]>> Hey, uh sorry. I didn't want to cut off your flow state there. Um yeah, I just wanted to uh just like re-emphasize that like it I mean, you you've said it a bunch. I'll say it again like it everything's tonight speculation. Um like I I have a I know somebody who knows somebody works at Blue Origin and I got the text message saying that like um >> [snorts] >> um it happened right at ignition. So, um you know, it that that like it's not like an over pressurized tank that explodes or like that. So, it's probably something to do with the ignition process, but that I mean, that doesn't really tell us much now. Um the only other thing I'd say is like the right tower fell. That's a lot of steel.

[00:19:12]Um so the I know if the if like the deluge system like the the the like plane trench of the pad if that had got if that got real damaged, that's a that's pretty long recovery time for those. Those are um very complex. You wouldn't think it's just water but it there all the channeling is to do with those is complex. So that that's a possibility but again everything's speculation till we know more. But like yeah, but for AST specifically you're talking about like there's there's other launchers and um and you know what? I feel like if it came down to it like having this your payload ready and then you know what if there's a market for buying a launch out from someone else? Like there's these ride share missions or would they have to pay to a company like XO launch to uh buy up a launch or something like that, you know? I don't know just just another idea for that another F9.

[00:19:58]So I mean yeah, I it's not I'm not going to say it has zero impact but it's not like the end of the world so it doesn't affect Bluebird still work.

[00:20:07]It may take a little longer to come up but it's not the end of the world.

[00:20:11]>> Yeah, I I think it's it's obviously a setback and the the timeline is going to shift but then I you know there's there's also if you have money and you can throw it at the problem which is buying more Falcon 9 launches that yeah that's one way to solve it. Um but I think from a competitive standpoint I was kind of alluding to this to this before um you know there's going to be there's going to be bottlenecks, right?

[00:20:35]Um and so this is where the launch capacity question comes into play where like you know AST has has reservations for launch but then you know one key question would be can they scramble to get more which I think they will be able to. I mean it's a matter of do you pay full freight or do you pay or you try to haggle for some discount on a Falcon 9 and um if you're doing dedicated launches, that's much easier but if you are a smaller company that needs to do ride share, that's where it gets really tricky uh cuz it's almost like solving for a Rubik's Cube, right? Where it you need to have the right number of people to be on the right chair where it's economic and then, you know, then it reaches critical mass where they can go launch those things, right? Whereas, if you're buying a a dedicated launch, then there's a lot more flexibility depending on um you know, what you're willing to pay.

[00:21:24]>> Yeah, and that's what I was going to say about So, X Launch is a company that actually buys the F19 and then they do I I don't know if it's the transporter or the bandwagon, but they actually they do all of the booking and everything else.

[00:21:33]So, they're just buying the Falcon from um from SpaceX. So, if they have the slot already, I mean, you got to think you think it it would be economical or get close to economical that you're like, "Oh, we'll pay full price for that." Or we'll pay whatever over full, you know, we'll pay more than you paid for it and just give it it to us. You don't have to wrangle all these smaller competitors to grab, you know, try to fill up one launch. That just just an idea that came to my head while we were talking. Like, you could almost buy the launch you could buy out the capacity from these secondary um uh bandwagon people.

[00:22:03]>> Yeah, but I but I think I think in that in that regard, um unless you're saying like you would buy out their entire launch. Uh I guess that's possible, but >> Yeah.

[00:22:13]That just an idea. I mean, I don't know.

[00:22:16]>> Yeah, so I I think, you know, the the company has plan B and C. Like the I think folks were surprised at how quickly New Glenn was successful um in successful meaning the the first the first successful launch, which was the second one. So, I I know that's confusing. And then, of course, the third one was was successful, but then didn't place her satellite into the proper orbit. But, um there there were contingency plans for this, right? Which is why the company has been talking with other launch providers and of course signed on with ULA. And as someone pointed out, BE-4, um you know, that that and if the if the engine's the problem, then perhaps ULA might be grounded for a while as well.

[00:22:59]But, um but yeah, I mean, this this is a setback for the industry. It's it's going to it's tough for um Amazon Leo cuz obviously they were going to use Virgin as well to get their constellation up.

[00:23:10]Um although they they have, you know, flight just like everybody else. They have flights booked on Falcon 9 and ULA uh Vulcan Centaur and Ariane as well. Um and so yeah, I mean I think I think um for folks who this is a bummer. Like I was driving back from my son's soccer practice and I was just oh just go on Twitter Twitter Twitter and I saw this massive explosion and I was like, okay, that's not good. Um and yeah, it's it's it's going to be a setback uh depending on I I tomorrow the stock will be down. Um I'm sure there'll be there'll be a lot of ink written about it and we'll we'll probably have a better understanding of what's going on um tomorrow or the day after, but um but yeah, this is this is just part of space and and I think people should remain calm. Um you know, if the stock goes down to 120, um well, we you know, we just came from 63.

[00:24:06]And so I think uh having some perspective like even if the stock goes down to 110 or 115, um you know, I I did have a space earlier today where I did talk about, you know, making sure that you stay honest with your targets and uh if you were planning to set aside some capital um you know, once the stock had rebounded from 63 or you had bought some upside, you know, you got to be honest with yourself and like monetize some of that, which I did over the last two days and um and I think others up here have well and so this is kind of what you're prepped for, right? Like there is going to be volatility and setbacks and so um sometimes there opportunities to, you know, buy back in or do do whatever you need to, right? So um but yeah, I think I think Yeah, go ahead.

[00:24:51]>> Sorry, real quick question and I mean obviously you don't have a crystal ball, but like I don't know. I So in general like if a stock has some big event or something like that and you get like a like a you you know, a hard down or something like that in the open, is there always a bounce or is it sometimes a bounce or is it like just depends on that I don't know. I got some more I'm wondering in my mind if there's like a trade off play tomorrow. Maybe I It's probably not thing to focus on, but that's what I was asking.

[00:25:13]>> No worries. It's a board. That's what That's what we're here for, right? So, um So, there is a decent amount of short interest. I think today the short short interest actually went up from the day before. So, it was at 66 million today versus 63.6 the prior day.

[00:25:29]But yeah, there's going to be um And this is So, when you have situations like this, this is where short sellers can be your friends. Um when your stock goes down, uh often times short sellers would be looking to monetize their position or or cover. Um And so, you might get some buying support. But I think tomorrow, you know, pre-market the stock's going to be down. I mean, overnight right now it's at like 120. I think it went as low Let me just look.

[00:25:52]>> I think it 118.43.

[00:25:54]>> 118.43.

[00:25:56]Um and I'll be honest. Like I had a I have a small Robinhood account and um and I had some A I I normally have just regular AST stock in it. The reason why I had this Robinhood account, by the way, is that I opened it so I could see what Robinhood was about cuz like a lot of younger people use it. And then there's some like interesting stuff with it where like you can trade overnight for some stocks, which you can't do on E*TRADE. And so, I opened this account and then I think I opened it with like $20,000 and then um I was like I just owned AST stock and some other stuff in it. And then when we went to the debt when we had that dip down to 63, I actually sold everything and bought ASTX in it. And this thing rebounded to like $70,000. And then um but I still had it.

[00:26:38]And then when this news came on, I was like, "Oh, shit." And so, I immediately went in and I sold out of that position I think at like 71, which let me just see where ASTX is now.

[00:26:49]Um I think ASTX is trading at 6280 or so. Um so in that account like um tomorrow I'm planning to probably buy some back depending on where it trades, but you know, it's it's I guess I would say like there's going to be a knee-jerk open.

[00:27:06]My guess is there'll be a knee-jerk open and maybe it goes down to like 1 115 is maybe low, maybe 110 and that's probably a buy uh for a bounce back cuz I think one thing that people will There'll be this knee-jerk reaction and then then people who are negative are going to try to uh you know, say like, "Oh, the company's going to never going to get this constellation up." I mean, you you saw us Okay, so you saw Tim Ferraro this evening say, "Well, the company only has four F9s." They're never Let me just take a look here. I don't want to misquote.

[00:27:36]>> He was talking Yeah, no, it's I'll let you You can get the quote, but he was he was referring to the the new new Glenn like 4x9. They're they're their larger heavy the super heavy lift vehicle that they're working on. He's saying like, "Oh, they're just going to go straight to that version and not even do any more of the of the of the 4x7s or whatever they are now or 2x7s."

[00:27:54]>> Well, that >> Yeah, he he's he's dumb. That's such a dumb statement.

[00:27:58]They have a full use the first the first the other first booster is still perfectly fine.

[00:28:03]>> Well, he so he got that from Eric Berger. And by the way, like I did I did talk to Eric or sorry, I didn't talk to Eric. Um I remember running some of Eric Berger's speculation by AST management.

[00:28:14]I think it was like last summer.

[00:28:16]And they were like, "That guy is completely wrong." Like they cuz they they know Blue Origin um management well and they're pretty much embedded at Blue Origin. And so um when I ran this stuff, I was like, "Is this Eric Berger guy Is he right in what he's saying?" And he was like, "No, he's completely wrong."

[00:28:31]So >> Well, like I have two Yeah, the so one example he said something about Lockheed Martin something and Peter Beck straight up like, "Nope." was his only answer like to quote him wrong. And then he had a whole article about about the the engines that had failed during testing what they were supposed to. be. a bunch of fud made out of nothing there, too.

[00:28:48]Which, you know, basically Peter said like, "Eric, you're making a mole mole hill out of some or nothing or something like that." And now that mole hill.

[00:28:56]>> Okay, so this is what Tim Farrar said.

[00:28:57]And so, the reason why I'm reading this is because it's important context. He said, "So, with four F9s planned this year and no more New Glenns until the pad is rebuilt, it looks like AST commercial service will now begin be pushed to 2028."

[00:29:10]And then, um "The good news is AST can blame a lack of launchers and everyone will be able to ignore the blazing mean factor.

[00:29:17]Better news, clueless cult can continue to pretend it's broadband because no one will be able to use the service for real."

[00:29:23]Um so, the reason why I bring this up is that this is the Tim Farrar who originally said that um that the Blue Birds would not fit into a Falcon 9 fairing. And then, he and then, of course, like now he's saying that, "Oh, there's They're going to launch on four Falcon 9s." Which which is quite funny.

[00:29:39]Yeah, I've no idea where he's getting this information. But, um but yeah, there's going to be news and and people are going to be negative and and so, I think the stock will will at the open pre-market it'll it'll do what it is and then it'll it'll gap down. Um but then, you know, depending on how much volume trades there, um my guess is like it'll rebound to a degree. It's not going to get back to obviously 130, but um but it depends. Like tomorrow, uh I I don't expect AST to say anything cuz they they won't know anything until Blue Origin is concluded in investigation, but um but yeah, I think the market will have to >> digest uh service is going to get pushed out to degree, which you know, I pointed this out earlier, which was I guess it was bad timing. Um cuz we're all like celebrating, "Oh, Blue Origin New Glenn can go get get back to launch uh next week." Which would have been a positive thing, right?

[00:30:28]Like if they had a successful launch. Um but but that's been an overhang on the stock. And so, the question is like how much of that how much overhang was priced in that New Glenn that there was risk that Blue Origin New Glenn um was going to get delayed. And so I'd argue that um you know, when the stock traded all the way down to 63, like that was heavily priced in.

[00:30:51]And then um how much was priced in that New Glenn was going to return to launch, right? Um actually get um several launches off this year. Uh I would say that maybe that was 60/40 that people 60% maybe even more optimistic 65% that New Glenn was going to uh get back um in the in the rotation, which by the way, like at the earliest New Glenn was not going to launch um an AST Bluebird until probably August at earliest, maybe September.

[00:31:20]Um but in between like um and this is where people have the memory will be short, right? Where it's like, "Oh, New Glenn is is is off is off the table right now." But then within what is it? Probably the next two, three weeks, we're going to have a Falcon 9 launch, right? Uh batch one.

[00:31:39]And and before that, my guess is that you'll see another batch, batch two, um shipped down to the Cape sometime in I don't know, in the next two to three weeks.

[00:31:48]And so the key thing for me like I was talking with Kookaburra this a little earlier, we just had a brief chat. Um I think the key thing is production cadence, right? Um cuz you got to build these satellites. And if you can build them fast enough, um if you have money, you can launch them. And you know, meaning you can buy Falcon 9 launches and get them get them up. And you know, after your your first five are done, it might take a little longer to to and I'm assuming management's on the phone and and they're booking more right now.

[00:32:21]But um I think the key thing is like getting those additional launches lined up uh will be important. And then in the meantime like you're going to wait and see what Blue Origin is doing um in terms of you know, the investigation, or I My my guess is like I mean we saw a message from Jeff Bezos this this evening where they're going right back to it, right? They're going to rebuild whatever they need. The guy's got And this is like part of the reason why you would bet with Blue Origin is that it's Jeff Bezos, right? He's got a ton of money. He's going to figure it out. And and so they're going to get back to rebuilding actually the new launch pad and they're going to rebuild the the one that got blown up today.

[00:33:03]And they'll be back at it, right? And so the key question is like how many Falcon 9 launches and ULA Centaurs can you book in the meantime?

[00:33:11]Which is a good thing that the company did bring on another launch provider, right?

[00:33:16]And so I think it's going to take time for the market to digest that and there might be and these are something to keep an eye out for, right? Like there's going to be research reports that come out as well.

[00:33:25]Like that initial reaction, it depends on like what sell side analysts think too. Like if the company talks to them and and gets uncomfortable with playing mean, then there may not be much I can be there or you might have like something downgrades, right? You might have stock price targets adjusted because things are being pushed out to a degree. But but this back is a setback for the industry, right? Like it's it's going to be tough for Amazon Leo which is we're not competing with them, but for Amazon Globalstar overall this is not a good thing for Viasat. You know, I was joking about Viasat like my short position in Viasat and my like, you know, comments about it.

[00:34:06]I kind of like did that in a half joking way and it and I did short it in small size because it it was really a forcing mechanism for me to research it because I I wanted to understand like is this a reasonable investment? Like obviously that the stock has re-rated and part of that has been from the rise in spectrum valuations, but also the Lagado payment helped bail them out to a degree. But but I listened to that call today and this Equisys JB, I guess we'll find out like new details about it, but it really does sound like a lot of different moving parts. It's not clear what exactly is going on. Maybe they were being a bit coy about it because they're trying to uh you know, they're trying to not give too many details right now, but but that one of the key questions on that call was um one of the research analysts asked well, you know, hey, don't you guys need to have these agreements in place and then don't you need to secure launches and then Mark Bankberger was like, yeah, we will have agreements in place and then we're going to go out and go buy launches, which um Yeah, that's going to be a bit tougher now, probably.

[00:35:11]So so that little spot right there, he almost started to say something else and then he changed his sentence and he almost said we have and then he started to change his sentence and all the reason I'm speculating is only cuz there's this confidential customer for Neutron that we don't know who it is.

[00:35:26]They booked five launches that revealed last quarter. So if if Rocket Lab you know, ends up being part of this Equisys Equisys whatever it's called thing that they you know, they may have been being launch provider for it, but I'm not I don't know that at all. It's just something that we're all speculating cuz they talked about bringing another person another like a bus provider basically launcher and so I don't know. And MDA is the other one that I'm looking at as being the bus provider.

[00:35:53]Yeah, that would make sense.

[00:35:55]Um Yeah, and I think I think you know, this is like part of the the excitement but also the anxiety, right? Investing in space cuz I'm excited for Rocket Lab Neutron to for its maiden flight and for that to get to commercial cadence, but it's also the the flip side of that is like holy it's a new vehicle and there can be you know, there there can be mishaps, too. And so um it's exciting, but but I think that's also you know, part of the thing that to prep yourself as a space investor in that um these things do happen. Like expect them to happen. Having a perfect mission your first time out is not is not something that's normal and you know, it's just part of being being in a cutting edge like new vehicle design program. You're going to have these things. But yeah.

[00:36:49]>> Yeah, the only other thing and you kind of touched on it earlier the only other like I guess for the macro piece to this for the macro space sector anyways is that and this is could actually end up being like a a forcing function for them to get it to get it back like up and running faster is that NASA is really depending on on New Glenn and the NC-1 vehicle and everything else for all the for all the you know, Artemis program and you know, all the moon landing stuff. So you know, if if they're like can quickly work to get to rebuild it. I bet you can get like permitting and all that stuff wait wait cut down. Like that kind of red tape might get might get pushed away quicker cuz it's like oh, this is now a national priority. So I don't know. That's like maybe the only maybe another silver lining.

[00:37:29]>> Yeah, you know, you you actually bring up a really good point and someone had had made this earlier.

[00:37:34]This administration's built differently, right? Like the FAA investigation for the second stage mishap that took what 30 days and then and then they were back to static fire here and then they were going to launch next week. But it is you bring up a a very important point which is that we are in an absolute space race with China and for better or for worse, you know, NASA has put its eggs in in in one to two baskets which is Blue Origin New Glenn and and SpaceX Starship, right?

[00:38:07]And for all intents and purposes like that's that's it.

[00:38:12]And so I think the administration is going to be pretty aggressive in the timeline here because they want to get this rocket back and back up and going as well as Starship cuz they're all they're all on their own alternators, right? Cuz I don't think you know better than me, but it seems like Artemis is not going to be relied upon for any critical stuff for the future missions, right?

[00:38:38]>> Yeah, exactly. Um uh Sorry, uh Captain was in the chat. He was saying that the the my the power might have been I don't I mean I shouldn't say that until it's He said the power might be out on the other pads or something like that. So it might affect the Atlas launch that was supposed to launch tomorrow, but um not I'm not sure. Don't call me on that. Let me look it up. Uh but sorry. I I hate speculating live like that cuz I don't want to I don't want to say the wrong thing. Um but uh the Oh, oh, lost it. Never mind.

[00:39:11]I It's probably I don't know how you're awake still. I mean it's I feel it's like it's like it's only 9 here, but jeez.

[00:39:18]>> Yeah, I know. I'm tired. I'm tired. Um I was planning to go to bed early and then I saw this and I was like, "Oh, shit."

[00:39:24]But But yeah, I mean tomorrow it's it's going to be ugly. It's not going to be down. I mean it's I mean it's I don't know how ugly. I don't think it's going to be awful, but um but yeah, it's a hiccup and I think the other thing too, there was like some Bloomberg article talking about how or or people are speculating how the SpaceX valuation supposedly was lowered, but in reality, I think you guys were talking about core. In reality, I think it's in line.

[00:39:49]>> It's like 1.8.

[00:39:50]>> Yeah.

[00:39:52]Yeah, cuz Bloomberg had speculated it was 2 trillion. Space Investor found this and Elon directly denied it. So the It was only official number before was like 1.5 to 1.75 and now now they're saying it's 1.8. So it actually went up.

[00:40:07]So that's a good thing. I was But yeah, I was That was the other thing I was going to say was that like, you know, we may see like maybe some lag or something or this might affect kind of that sector next week, but I can't imagine this isn't going to like then I feel like it's a perfect rest period for it pumps with the SpaceX IPO. I don't know.

[00:40:23]That's just general sector-wide.

[00:40:25]>> Yeah.

[00:40:25]>> I'm I'm I'm puffing on hopium over here, all right?

[00:40:29]>> Yeah, I I think um so for people that don't know, when you when bankers take a company public, you typically have a filing range and your filing range, you know, for I'm just making up some numbers, but for SpaceX um it could be let's call it 1.5 to 1.7 trillion dollars, which is kind of nuts for me even saying, you know, that trillion number, but um what banks like to do is they'll set a filing range, they'll go out on a roadshow, and this is how you build like excitement or interest. Um you obviously there there's like feedback from capital markets from investors of like, "Oh, okay, is this valuation reasonable? Is it too high, too low?" Um and then prior to um when their prospectus goes effective, they'll try to raise the range again. They'll raise it to like 1.7 to 1.9 based off of demand, and and that that like gets people really excited, and and they try, you know, if you put in your allocation for I want 100 million share 100 million dollars worth of SpaceX, you know, they might come back and say um oh, it's really it's really hot, and so you may not get much of your allocation. So, instead of putting in for 100, if you if you think that's the real number, you need to put in an allocation for cuz these things can get over subscribed, you put an allocation for 100 million, and you'll get reduced back to one. Um and so they'll create like this demand, this like cycling demand, and then and then of course like when it comes time to actually price IPO, you know, the range was 1.5 to 1.7, they raised it 1.7 to 1.9, then they'll price it like 2.2 trillion, right? And then when they allocate the shares to people, you asked for 400 million, you got filled on 75, and then, you know, institutions like Fidelity and others they're like, "Well, I didn't get my full allocations. I need to go out in the after market, you know, once the company is public and can go buy more shares to get to where I want to be. And so that that's how like people create demand in these IPOs and and so these ranges are kind of like they're trying to ramp up interest and show that, you know, there's a lot of demand there. And so it'll be interesting to see where it ultimately prices. My guess is if it's at 1.8 trillion now, you know, at the end of the roadshow they'll probably say, you know, they'll raise the range to 1.9 to 2 trillion and then they'll price it at 2.1 trillion, something like that. But we'll see. I mean, but I think that that's that that speculation of the article obviously, you know, some some people are like, oh, that's not good. Like if the if the valuation is down, which is not, but if it was down and then of course you have this being planned anomaly like, you know, perhaps the space sector can be red tomorrow, which it will be. It will be red tomorrow cuz AST is is a big proxy of the space sector and so inevitably everything else is going to trade down to some extent.

[00:43:10]And let's see, where is Rocket Lab trading now?

[00:43:15]I guess it's down just 2.4%.

[00:43:18]I'm just looking here. Intuitive Machines is down 3.5% and what's another company you can look at here?

[00:43:27]>> Redwire is down too.

[00:43:29]Percent. They all all the all the the stuff that was lunar kind of adjacent seems like it was getting hit.

[00:43:37]I Redwire maybe just cuz it ran so hot.

[00:43:40]I don't know.

[00:43:41]>> Yeah. The the other thing I would say is that um the space sector has been absolutely on fire over the last few weeks and so some of these smaller companies that are serial issuers of stock, whether that's Satellite Logic or Siteus, SIDU, or Momentus, MNTS, they all priced deals and then Firefly just announced or they just priced their deal. I think they're raising some primary capital meaning the company's raising money, but then also AE Industrial Partners, which is a private equity firm focused on space, they're selling pretty decent chunk of their stock, which they also sold out of completely Redwire as well.

[00:44:20]So, so yeah, anyway, but we'll see tomorrow, you know, it's it's midnight, so I'm going to try to go to bed cuz I'm sure I'm going to wake up early, but but I think it's important like make sure you, you know, don't don't get caught up in the speculation. Tim Farrar's having a field day. This is the type of he loves, which he's a pretty miserable prick, but anyway, but yeah, we'll we'll find out and just keep in mind, you know, we've got like a handful of Falcon 9 launches this year and that's going to happen, right? And and the key thing for me is production cadence, and so how long does it take in between batch batches of satellites and it does that time frame continue to shorten?

[00:45:02]Cuz then that's that's for me is the key cuz I think ultimately for the company with the amount of money that they have, they can buy launches, they can buy and you know, it's a matter of are you going to get a discount or are you have to pay full price, right? And so so yeah, this is a setback, but but when you zoom out over the next three, four, five years, it will be a small blip. But anyway, I don't know, do you have anything else to say, Jacob?

[00:45:30]>> No, no. Just I feel for you, man. I mean, I feel for us, man. It sucks. So, like, you know, like I said, the community is listening. It's it, you know, happens. Space is hard.

[00:45:40]We'll We'll only want to remember it a year from now, hopefully.

[00:45:44]All right, man. Have a good night.

[00:45:45]>> Those are Those are not empty words.

[00:45:47]Space is hard and on days like this, it it is a reminder that those those words are true. But anyway, I'll end it there or you know what, I'll take a quick look.

[00:45:57]I see a ton of comments, so let me just Let's here.

[00:46:04]Um There's lots of support. A lot of supportive comments.

[00:46:10]Is it Question, how long would it take to rebuild a transport order erector? Glock estimates 1 to 1 and 1/2 years. I'm not sure.

[00:46:18]Um they might have one already in process, right? Cuz they were building another pad, but that's a good question.

[00:46:23]I'm not sure.

[00:46:25]Um The other thing is like once you build one of these things the first time, it should be faster to build a second one.

[00:46:33]>> Yeah, the only the the real long pole on those things is the flame trench. Like I was saying earlier, those are the those are really complex pieces and a lot of steel.

[00:46:42]But uh I mean yeah, hopefully. I mean I'm sure they're going to be pushing it and they'll probably do a risk, you know, pro con on which which is better to rebuild the one they have or to finish building the new one. So they'll they'll make the right decision.

[00:46:55]>> Let's see that Do you think there's any chance of capital raise to fund the acquisition of launches from other sources in a timely manner? Uh I don't think so. I mean there there could be, I guess. There always can be a potential for capital raise, but the company has I mean they burned through some of the capital, but they they have what? Almost 4 billion in pro forma cash. So I don't think that's really a problem at this point, thankfully. So this is a reminder of like when the company does raise cash, and something does happen, um you always you don't feel good sometimes when you raise cash, but in retrospect you know, the last time they raised money, it's like oh, they raised a billion dollars and everything's fine, so it's important like when you're um when you're doing difficult things to have a fortress balance sheet. Let's see. The booster 3 exploded. Blue Origin can still use booster 1 and 2, right? Um no, it's booster 1 is gone. That was the first one that we lost, um or they lost.

[00:47:51]Booster 2, yes, they can continue to use that. And then booster >> Mhm.

[00:47:55]>> I was going to say booster 2 is is is I'd just maybe right now. We need to see how how it that that that integration facility that's right there in front of launch pad is where the booster was at and that was really that's pretty close to the section. So as long as not damaged yet it's perfectly fine.

[00:48:10]>> Yeah, there there is some speculation that perhaps they lost more they lost like some second stages and a booster, but who knows? We'll see.

[00:48:18]But we do know that booster Let's see, booster four sorry booster Is it booster four? Yeah, booster four is in production and booster five.

[00:48:28]They're expecting to get three more boosters done I think this year.

[00:48:31]So Yeah, we'll see.

[00:48:34]Um >> Yeah, so when they that that the plus side is the thing that maybe people aren't realizing too is that they have all of those boosters and first stages built. When the pad is done, it's not going to be three months between a launch. They can pile them up with back-to-back weeks like one after another, right? So like the the campaign could go up could increase faster if if they built a backlog of these first stages and the boosters. That's all I was trying to get.

[00:48:56]So there's a there's a there's another silver lining. The the launches could happen really fast once once they're back up and launching.

[00:49:02]>> Yeah, this this second stages I think they have or they had built up to what 14? They're working on their 15 right now.

[00:49:09]But of course they used I guess they used three and then actually one just got blown up so they've used four. So up to 14 so that means that they have approximately 10 10 that they can use unless some of them got blown up in the facility nearby.

[00:49:24]Um yeah, for the the first stage booster They have If never tell me the odds was not close by but they had that one and then they got two in production and they were eventually trying to get to a total of I think five in rotation this year, but but we'll see.

[00:49:43]Um someone saying me and my two shares are in shambles. Yes.

[00:49:47]I feel your pain.

[00:49:48]Um Will this >> The scary thing about options is you don't see the damage really until the next day. So I'm like, "How does it look so bad?" And then when it opens [laughter] up, sorry. You can continue.

[00:50:00][clears throat] >> Yeah, yeah. No, I uh fortunately I sold like a decent chunk, but I still have a lot. But the rest that I have, a lot of them are call spreads. And so um I had these like 90 120 and 100 120 call spreads. And so um they all they're it's not going to be good, but they'll be okay.

[00:50:19]Let's see. Is Israel is Israel possible?

[00:50:21]Yes. Israel is possible.

[00:50:23]Uh but it is kind of a pain in the ass to get satellites there.

[00:50:28]But it is certainly possible and you can put two on there uh an LVM 3.

[00:50:32]Let's see. Will the explosion also impact SpaceX launches due to damage? Um I don't believe so. SpaceX Um for So for those people who were there at the launch, um they they will notice or will have noticed that um well we were there for launch. You when you look straight out onto um the launch pads, you you'll see you can see the two SpaceX launch pads um or at least one of them where Alpha 9 launches from.

[00:50:57]Um you cannot actually directly see the SLC-3, which is where Blue Origin New Glenn launches. It's actually you have to look to your right and then it's past this this structure. Um so you don't even get to see the rocket directly.

[00:51:10]Like when we watched um Blue Origin New Glenn launch, it wasn't until the rocket had cleared like the structure um on the right side of the bleachers that you could see it. And so um yeah, the the This is why all these launch pads are built very far apart from each other cuz you don't want any mishap to impact uh another company's launch.

[00:51:31]Let's see.

[00:51:32]Is there a chance a short seller blew up the rocket? Um I don't believe so. Uh that would be bad. But if they were looking to short AST and blowing up Blue Origin's rocket, um that that seems like a pretty silly thing. If Blue Origin was public and they did it, then perhaps you could make a case for that, but um I don't know. I don't I don't think any um if everyone remembers, I think it was like GoldenEye James Bond like where they they shorted like some airline company and then they try to destroy the the the plane to make money or maybe it was that Die Another Day, I forget which one which which movie, but um I guess it's possible, but I doubt it. I think this was something that um that happened with the company. Let's see.

[00:52:15]ASTS is cooked.

[00:52:17]Okay. Yeah, the stock is down, so I I don't think the company is cooked, but but yeah.

[00:52:24]Is it going to set back um the roll out of satellites? Uh yeah, it's going to set back uh maybe by a few months, but the key thing is the Falcon 9 launches and and getting more Falcon 9s booked.

[00:52:38]Um I think that was it. So, uh >> Yeah.

[00:52:41]>> Yeah.

[00:52:41]>> I was going to say the um again again I wanted to point out that that the Well, I don't know. I guess this is a silver lining again is that like I think that once if if they are like cuz NewSpace's issue was that they didn't have all these things built to get to launch them, right? And then AST was ready was was at a point where it was building faster than NewSpace was coming out. I think they're going to we're going to have NewSpace on the ground and AST NewSpace on the ground both ready to go and then when that when the pad opens, it's just going to be go go go and then by the finish date of let's say at the 90 constellation mark, maybe it's not that far off than what it would have been prior to this pad extension.

[00:53:18]I don't know. That's my that's my positive spin on it.

[00:53:23]>> Well, cool. We can use the hopium. Um but yeah, we'll we'll see what happens tomorrow. Um you know, it's there will be uh maybe we'll get an update from Blue Origin uh by tomorrow and have a better sense of where things are, but again, I would take everything with a big big grain of salt. People are speculating. This guy, Eric Berger, um as I said before, like he he writes on authority and he says like he has these sources, but he has been wrong so many so many times in the past. So, just just take what he says um Yeah, with a bit happy doses of skepticism. But, anyway, I'll end it there. Um it's pretty late and you go to bed and we'll see what happens for maybe I'll do a space tomorrow depending on what else we learn. But, yeah, unfortunate event. But, this is space.

[00:54:10]You pick yourself up, improve, and carry on. Take care, everyone. Good night.

[00:54:22]>> Thanks for listening to the AST SpaceMobile podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and review. To catch all the latest news about AST SpaceMobile, make sure to subscribe.

[00:54:39]Thanks again and I'll see you next time.

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