Tesla vs Ford Strategic Business Comparison

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-10

[00:00:00]If there's one thing you can be certain of, it is that the future is uncertain.

[00:00:04]That's why we're going to try and unravel it a bit. What do you want from a company? Do you want someone that has a plan that already works, a plan that might work, or a plan that's definitely not going to work? Well, uh there's a few ways we can slice this. There's an interesting article I saw just yesterday uh that I covered in the news live roundup for Monday morning. And I'm going to go into greater depth today with Randy because we've got some questions here. And the questions are, does Ford have the right strategy? It appears to look like it will work well over the short term, but over the longer term, is it going to even matter? I'm Brian. Welcome to Futurza.

[00:00:46]>> Hi, Brian.

[00:00:47]>> Hi. Hi, R. Hello, Randy.

[00:00:50]I found this clever bit of nonsense.

[00:00:53]This is uh a thing apparently. And what's going on here is uh there's two paths to profitability in 26. I'm looking past 26, but let's start there.

[00:01:02]Tesla posted good margins, good gap estimates, uh earnings per share beating by quite a bit. FSD subscriptions ratcheting up nicely. Ford took a loss due to one-time impairments, and they've got a plan. Their plan is to uh have their Ford Pro software uh grow from there. But the Ford Pro software subscription is not billions in 26.

[00:01:29]That's that's definitely not it. That includes the sale of all the other things. But what we're looking at is uh a path. And the thing is Ford can make good money on their Superduty, F-150, Transit, and Ford Pro software. While Tesla, a higher margin but lower volume, is really focusing on things that will generate more money in the future. Which path makes more sense? Well, okay. I think that there is nothing wrong with Ford's approach as long as they're going to fork that approach at some point and find a way to get those trucks to be electric. Um, they obviously dip their toe into the electric market. They didn't do a very good job.

[00:02:14]Theoretically, they were going to go down and take another run at it. I haven't heard much more about that so far, but the approach that they are taking, I think is going to be a big money maker. And Tesla isn't offering a a really a competitive truck. Now, that doesn't mean I don't think that the uh that the Cybertruck isn't amazing. Um, but it's not shaped like it doesn't look like it doesn't have all the kind of, you know, masculine thing going on. And some people hate the look of the Cybertruck. So, I think they can probably get, you know, they might be able to get another 10 years out of that thing.

[00:02:51]>> I think all of that's possible. I think what's really going on is Ford is saying, "Look, we can make 5% 10% margins on trucks. That costs a lot of money. That's five grand, eight grand maybe. Uh, but it's a one-time sale.

[00:03:05]Ford Pro software is not going to compete with FSD revenue. Uh it's not going to definitely not going to compete with cyber cab revenue uh with autonomy revenue uh with you know operating a fleet that has daily recurring revenue u and for that matter bots the same thing those are Tesla can sell them but they can also rent them and the value of it as a sold product will correlate largely with its value as a sold product. So, you could say, "Well, I want to I don't want to pay for a a lease. I want to pay to own it." Great. We're going to price it accordingly. Do you think that Ford stands a chance when it comes to selling items once versus recurring?

[00:03:52]>> Well, okay. They're not necessarily competing with Tesla anymore. Now, Tesla would have said they were never competing with Ford, but Ford and everybody else said, "We need a Tesla killer." You know, so all of them looked at it and went, "Oh, we have to do something in order to slow Tesla down because it's going to eat market share."

[00:04:10]Well, Tesla isn't eating your market share because they're making a great car. They're making a they're going to eat your market share because they're making a great car which is also able to drive itself. And you could probably take a poll right now and I know some of these, you know, these places where you can place a bet on the future. Uh I know some of them are saying, "Oh, well Tesla won't have, you know, universal self, I'm sorry, unsupervised self-driving by the end of this year." You know, it's a small percentage. But nobody I don't I think you could take 10 polls and you wouldn't find anybody that's saying they'll never have it because it's this close. And okay, does it take it 10 years? I don't know, but at some point they're going to have it. So, I'm reminded of Sears Robuck.

[00:04:59]>> Yeah, >> I was I was really, you know, watching that whole Sears Robuck thing happen. I would think that Sears Robuck could have reduced the size of their stores or rented out other parts of their rented out the clothing department and some of these other ones. They were losing money. Kept the appliance division and the craftsman tools. And I think they probably would still be in business today, but they still probably wouldn't be in business 10 years from now. So these are because of the nature of, you know, tools can you can buy those online too, but they were just Craftsman tools.

[00:05:37]You know, it's a Ford F-150.

[00:05:40]>> And that's the thing is just like Craftsman, we're seeing cracks in the Ford brand. Craftsman was the gold standard. They had a lifetime guarantee.

[00:05:50]You would just you didn't need a receipt. You just come in with a broken uh wrench and they'd replace it. I had a I don't know like a 5/8 socket that cracked and I brought it in and they looked at that's unusual. Just go grab one. Just go grab one. And that was it.

[00:06:05]And then they introduced lower and lower quality versions uh until the brand meant nothing.

[00:06:12]>> And if you haven't bought tools in 30 years, it's possible you don't know that. That Craftsman no longer need means quality. I bought all my tools 30 years ago and I still have them.

[00:06:24]>> Right. Uh the thing I had was we kept having problems with coffee pots and the coffee pots kept dying. Didn't matter if I spent $20 or 40 or 60. They kept dying. The last one I bought was from Sears and I get to check out and she says, "Do you want to buy an extended warranty?" And I said, "Honey, if I I'm here because it's Sears. If I need an extended warranty, I will never come back. and the coffee pot died and I never went back. So that was the end of that. And uh now I can't go back because of course >> the last >> the last car, I'm sorry, the last store closed I think in January.

[00:07:06]>> They were down to four and then now they're down to zero.

[00:07:09]>> You can't get volume pricing on four. Uh that is the wrong the wrong number.

[00:07:15]Well, uh, but Tesla does make cars and we do need to compete with them. I would argue that Tesla may have sped along their, uh, the end of their sedan sales because, uh, you know, Ford used to make three sedans. They had the Escort, the, uh, the one above that uh, that was like the Mercury Topaz, and then the, what was it called? The Taurus. And then they even had the Lincoln above that, the Crown Vic. They had four sedans.

[00:07:45]>> Yeah.

[00:07:45]>> But as you know, nobody buys sedans anymore, Randy. No one. Let's look at the worldwide figures real quick here.

[00:07:51]Look at that. Okay.

[00:07:53]>> Worldwide for EVs. Model Y and Model 3.

[00:07:56]Model Y, not surprised. Model 3 being at number two. By the way, the Xiaomi Sue 7, the Tesla Model 3 killer, >> not in the top 20.

[00:08:07]>> The only Xiaomi here is the U7. So, this is pretty crazy to see. The seal uh is in here, but that's only because it's got its BEV and plug-in uh numbers combined.

[00:08:19]>> Oh, got it.

[00:08:21]>> So, uh Ford is, in my opinion, looking at it the wrong way. They are they are saying we need to sell more trucks.

[00:08:32]We're not going to make the trucks that the next generation wants. We're going to make the trucks the last generation wanted. We're going to make the thing we know how to build with a V8 that has largely not been redesigned since it was introduced in the 50s and/or 60s.

[00:08:49]They've got two different blocks that they just tweak a little bit from time to time. Uh and then of course change, you know, how the fuel gets in and the exhaust gets out, but that's about it.

[00:08:59]Versus, uh this approach where we're seeing it's going to be subscription revenue. It's going to be all those things. We don't need uh we don't want the one sale. We'll take the one sale. What we need is the forever sale, right?

[00:09:16]>> Yeah. Well, you know, obviously Tesla has in mind that subscription revenue approach. Also, as you've pointed out though in China, that particular approach is not necessarily working. Uh people are that some of these companies are building the FSD and everything else into the price of the car and not going for that subscription revenue. So whether the subscription revenue holds up in the US or not um is really absolutely irrelevant for the long term because when we get to autonomous cars and people are people are just going to switch there. Nobody nobody is going to buy a car. I don't I can't tell you which year it is. I've estimated I thought it would be 2028 that we would reach peak uh vehicle sales uh and maybe not even have any manufactured uh vehicles for sale in the United States.

[00:10:02]But I think that's going to be too aggressive, too optimistic. But again, pick your year. 2030, 2031. There's going to come a point at which the scale is not going to be great enough for US manufacturers of ICE vehicles or even if they're electric and not autonomous, the scale is not going to be there to continue to make them.

[00:10:25]>> I wonder, you know, I know we've discussed this. I've mentioned that a lot of us are gatherers rather than hunters. And I think gatherers will still want to own the things, but whether or not that means they have human operated controls is quite another. U the car you own today should remain legal indefinitely.

[00:10:45]But new cars have new rules. You know, I'm sure you've owned cars that didn't have a headrest so that if you got in a rear-end collision, you just you just had whiplash. You just had it. Um seat belts. Uh, I've been in cars that were sold without seat belts. Um, that's that would no longer be legal, but uh that's how they were sold.

[00:11:09]>> We loved running around in the back of the station wagon and hanging on to our mother's neck. I mean, that was, you know, that was part of the fun of driving.

[00:11:18]>> Yeah. Yeah. And we didn't die. I mean, lots of other kids did, but you won't hear them complain about it. So, that's all great. Um, when I'm looking for an indicator on what's a good thing to do with a stock, you know what I definitely don't do?

[00:11:34]>> I don't ask Jim Kramer.

[00:11:38]>> Here's what Jim Kramer thinks you should do with your Tesla shares. Jim Kramer made some big predictions. Every uh electric vehicle manufactured Tesla's shares are up 33% over the past year, down 13.8% year-to date because, you know, those were the two numbers that came up when I searched it on Google.

[00:11:55]And so I clicked it and it's very easy writing. Cancord Genuity discussed the firm on April 23rd as it raised its price target to 450 from 420. Nice. And kept a buy rating on the stock. But here's what Jim says. I would buy Tesla.

[00:12:11]Oh no, he's the big thinker. He's real.

[00:12:13]Who else is big is a big thinker? I guess Bezos.

[00:12:21]>> Jim. Jim. So Jim Jim Kramer, you know, I had I had I took a contrarian viewpoint the other day. My contrarian viewpoint was that everybody, especially in our community, everybody pans Jim Kramer uh as you know, whatever he says, do the opposite. And it could actually be true to a certain extent because people could play it that way when he says something.

[00:12:48]Is he any good at making forecasts?

[00:12:50]Well, he's made a lot of money making those forecasts and so apparently people do watch him.

[00:12:58]Lots and lots of people.

[00:13:01]>> So they watch him and they make some decisions based on what he's saying and they are big big fans. So he's been hot and cold on Tesla. I don't know as long as I've been watching Tesla and he was cold four months ago.

[00:13:17]I want to say four months ago.

[00:13:19]>> It's possible. Now he's hot.

[00:13:21]>> It's possible to be rich and successful, not because he's good, but because he's on television.

[00:13:26]>> That doesn't mean his trades have done well over the years. Although there is that leaked footage of him explaining how in how he has done insider trading >> where he will uh get a hot tip, pump it, and dump it. And uh that was probably 20 years ago, but still it's uh a ghoulish reminder of the realities that we don't see. Uh yeah, so of course this article has to flesh it out with some just nonsense here. Tesla designs, manufactures, and sells fully electric vehicles, solar uh energy storage solutions while developing real world AI. Following robust gains in late 25, shares fell as investors awaited progress on robo taxis and assessed the company's sizable investment in manufacturing and AI. Uh yeah, operationally they delivered strong quarterly results, etc. >> Uh yeah, or as I like the soul, etc. >> Yeah, I actually agree with his analysis. I've been saying it over and over again on my show. I think the entire reason that Tesla hit the last two all-time highs, maybe even the last three all-time highs, well, not the entire reason, the first one had to do with the S&P inclusion, but that was happening simultaneously with all of us believing that the robo taxi was going to come out like next week. Every time we've gone to an all-time high, every time we've sold off in a in a big way, it's been because of excitement that we were almost there and then the downside was, oh, whoops, we weren't. And that's what happened this year again. Um and u and I think uh as we get we had what 33 vehicles out there today that are unsupervised in Austin, as we keep on adding to and adding five and adding 10 and then maybe we start adding 20 and 30, the stock is going to inch back up again until we hit the all-time high later this year.

[00:15:20]>> Well, and I think uh in Jim's offense, uh he didn't actually write that. That was the uh Baron growth fund uh discussion.

[00:15:27]>> Baron growth focused growth fund u because you know got to got to keep it real. Sorry Jim. Uh Jim of course big viewer of the show I'm sure >> uh he's definitely got enough time in the day to watch all of us and I'm sure he does. I'm confident that he does. Is it possible to even measure uh a forward earnings projection? We have so many uh big things on the horizon. We can see FSD starting to crown as it were uh with the revenue from with the number of subscriptions growing tremendously last quarter 170,000 new FSD paid uh users.

[00:16:11]>> That's that's not going to stop growing it. The growth may slow. It may accelerate at different times. It'll be lumpy for sure. That is probably the only thing that can relatively uh accurately be guessed at. Things like MeggaPAC that's still growing. That's going to grow tremendously over the next few years. Put those into your forward, you know, your future earnings. But things like robo taxi, things like Optimus are a lot harder to model. How far along do those have to get before the models make sense and people institutions are likely to start buying again? Well, I think the key to anything is whether it executes what you want it to do. Um, you know, in other words, does my car truly drive itself? Can I get in the back seat and that's it? You know, I don't have to Can I get a cab, a a cyber cab, you know, in less than five minutes and go someplace for a buck a mile? I mean if those things happen they are extraordinarily uh disruptive uh extraordinarily disruptive and so at that point you don't know how disruptive but you can as you point out you can tell after a little while you start to see how much market is this particular item going to get um I see those of course like everybody that's in the community those are going to be extraordinarily disrupted the optimist same thing does it only pick and hack.

[00:17:41]I'm not interested. Um, could it actually remove the water bottles from the from the in the blow inject and blow molder? Um, can it actually uh take a t-shirt off the um off the uh silk screen printing line? Uh, can it actually put one on, which is twice as hard? Um, you know, how much of those jobs can it do? Can it turn a screw? Can it weld? when we start to see that it has a a large capability in terms of the the types of jobs that it can do and then we price it based on how much labor it saves, it's not going to be that hard.

[00:18:24]Interestingly, last night I was at the grocery store. The grocery store has one of those uh robot uh floor cleaners. I had a chance to talk with them about it a while back. I said, "Does it just know where to go?" No, you have to sit down, drive it, and teach it the route.

[00:18:40]>> Otherwise, it will not know. And then after that, it's a bit unreliable. I looked up the price. It's 50 grand to for this machine.

[00:18:49]>> And here's how smart it is. Last night when I was at the store, >> I saw it rolling slowly towards those black uh mats that they put down on the ground next to the produce section, >> that drain mat kind of things.

[00:19:02]>> And I stopped to watch. And then I noticed two employees also. Let's see.

[00:19:05]Let's see what H. Is it going to go around it? Nope. Chewed it up. Got jammed up into the brushes. So, it is It has cameras, but it is not intelligent at all. And that's 50 grand.

[00:19:19]>> So, I don't know. Uh, guys, I get it.

[00:19:24]You don't have the scale to make something truly amazing. You can't dump a half billion dollars into R&D and expect to ever see a penny of it. But uh this product is bad. It would be without exaggeration better to have Optimus drive it. A horrible misuse of an an incredibly advanced robot. But it would not make that mistake. Certainly not twice.

[00:19:50]>> But it gives you >> Yeah.

[00:19:53]>> But but it gives you it gives you an idea though that the stores are willing to spend $50,000 just to have the floor done.

[00:20:00]>> Okay. And so, and so when we talk about $300,000 for an Optimus or $100,000 a year to rent it, these are not crazy numbers. The these are numbers that have been confirmed by CERN and and you know, many others. Uh yeah, sure. I was probably first uh you know, well, you know, we talked about it back in the in the Elon Musk mission. Um and that's three and a half years ago now. So >> I will tell you, >> yeah, those numbers are only crazy from a consumer perspective, right?

[00:20:31]>> People often don't understand the scale of expenses in the commercial and industrial realm. Well, they they say, "Oh, why should you charge me >> a whole dollar for this injection molding that cost you a penny?"

[00:20:48]>> Because I paid for the machine.

[00:20:50]>> Yes. Right.

[00:20:51]>> You know, you can go buy a machine. Go by by all means go buy a a machine, but I don't think you're going to find a big savings there for your oneoff job.

[00:21:01]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:21:02]>> Yeah. So, uh the big takeaway is if you want value, you know what you got to do?

[00:21:08]Just subscribe. It doesn't cost anything on YouTube. You could also become, you know, a channel member or a supporter.

[00:21:15]Get some bonus content. Have some fun.

[00:21:18]Nothing weird going on in there, you guys. Nothing weird. and everybody else.

[00:21:22]You know, like, subscribe, do what you do. Stay tuned, stay juicy, and I cannot wait to hear from you clever robots. Uh maybe in the comment section on Ry's videos. I check out my comments sometimes, just because sometimes my day is going too well and I just feel like a little bit of abuse is what I need. Talk to you soon.