Nvidia's perfect quarter still can't lift its stock | Morning Bid

Ajouté : 2026-05-25

[00:00:02]Today, Nvidia's stock shrugs off another big earnings beat, but chip makers around the world are rallying. Plus, signs that some tankers are getting through Hormuz knocked back oil prices.

[00:00:12]And SpaceX files for its long-awaited IPO, and there are reports that OpenAI is ready to file, too.

[00:00:19]This is Reuters Morning Bid, bringing you unfiltered market news [music] and analysis straight from the Reuters newsroom 7 days a week. I'm Mike Dolan in London. And I'm [music] Anna Szymanski. It's Thursday, May 21st.

[00:00:33]Well, Mike, all eyes were on Nvidia yesterday as they were releasing first-quarter earnings, and their numbers were fantastic, as expected, but that was actually the issue. It was as expected. Everything seemed to be priced in, and so the shares actually fell. In the blizzard of numbers that we always get with these earnings report, it was hard to find something that was that was negative.

[00:00:52]And as we said yesterday, I think the market had been well teed up from the earning season that's already been been underway for something like this. But all all the rang all the bells. I mean, it's it's earnings have almost doubled over the past past year. It's revenue forecast for the coming quarter at $91 billion is higher than the average estimates or the consensus was expecting. It upped its dividend. It's planning an $80 billion buyback. Hard to see where the problem was, but the stock is down about 1% overnight, which is basically giving back what it gained in yesterday's session. So, Clearly, as you say, you know, an awful lot of this is in the price. It seems to be. There was some concern, I suppose, if you can call it that, about rising competition. And that speaks a little bit to the fact that there was nothing in this report really that raised any sort of red flag about the huge AI build-out. And indeed, if there is greater competition for Nvidia, then that's probably good news for chip makers all around the world.

[00:01:54]And we kind of saw that in in overnight Asian markets again. Part of the reason that it has this massive valuation is because of the expectation of how enormous this AI boom is going to be, but when you have an enormous boom, it tends to bring in competitors and we're seeing that including with some of Nvidia's biggest customers. Absolutely.

[00:02:12]And overnight there's a lot of tech news. I mean the it is now you know the centerpiece of the of the entire market the story the AI story at least. But you know we did see Samsung which has been very much in the in in the in the foreground the vanguard of that huge build out a trillion dollar company itself now. We saw it kind of averting that strike that worker strike that we had talked about yesterday that that could have happened today. There seems to be at least a tentative agreement there. That was enough to lift Samsung shares about 7% overnight. And then we've got a lot of new kids on the block. So we got the finally the long awaited filings for SpaceX IPO arrived last night. So that's going to be another trillion dollar company arriving on Wall Street a trillion dollar plus. And also there are reports this morning that OpenAI itself the AI darling the the chat GPT owner is about to file for an IPO itself. So so there's a there's a huge demand for this tech build out certainly in in stock markets and you're going to get a lot of a lot of new supply if you want to look at it that way.

[00:03:26]So the AI frenzy continues to be one of the major drivers of markets, but then the countervailing force for at least the last few months has been what's happening in the Gulf, what's happening in the Middle East. And yesterday on the one hand it seemed like we got some okay news in terms of a few more tankers making their way through the straight and oil prices fell as a result.

[00:03:50]But that being said, it's interesting because what we seem to be seeing happen in the Gulf is this new norm being created where Iran is essentially having control over who is moving in, who is moving out. And and as you see other countries, other companies kind of starting to adapt to that, it suggests that once you do have a quote-unquote opening of Hormuz at some point, it's probably not going to look like what it looked like before February 28th when this conflict started.

[00:04:18]>> Yeah, it's interesting that that the the the size of the move I thought was was very large yesterday.

[00:04:23]So it was a it was a 5% drop in in the crude price yesterday, which is a very big drop for just three supertankers getting through that straight.

[00:04:33]Okay, very big tankers, 6 million barrels of oil, but still it was a it was a it was a bigger move than that would suggest. Now President Trump had said that, you know, there may be some breakthrough in in this tortuous negotiation. I've heard that before. I've heard that before.

[00:04:50]have heard that before. And so it may be, who knows, but I guess to the market reaction, you know, your point that it depends on where you start to look at what it looks like. So compared to where we were prior to the war, what you say looks like a pretty difficult situation going forward, but compared to where we were a week or two ago, maybe that's just simply how how the markets are looking at it. So it's not as bad as it was when nothing at all was moving. And it's understandable why Trump is really trying to calm the markets and trying to send a message to probably the average American as well that this conflict may be wrapping up because he got some negative approval ratings out over the last week. The Reuters/Ipsos polls, which which are kind of high-frequency trackers of of of public opinion, and certainly very important in this election year, the midterm election year, um they have been showing that deteriorating for some time. But what was really significant uh, I thought about uh, particular polls Was it that Republican voters, so so people polled who claim to be uh, Republicans, uh, um, they are beginning to um, disapprove of his cost of living uh, performance if you want to put it that way. So his approval rating on the cost of living as an issue, um, there is as many Republican voters who disapprove of it as approve of it. Uh, and that is that is quite a marker in in this election year. So it's interesting that in in this week uh, Trump has appeared to give some additional wiggle room to his new appointee at the top of the Fed, Kevin Warsh, uh, some uh, latitude to to deal with this inflation problem. And it may be that he's signaling to the public that he's going to allow the Fed to do his job. Now that's a big change of oh of tack, but it does create a a problem for political problem for the president because as we dial back to the previous administration of Joe Biden, this became a real issue for them because as the Fed tightened and raised interest rates and raised the public borrowing cost effectively intentionally uh, to get across that inflation problem in '22, '23, uh, that was a double whammy. People see that as a cost of living issue. So so you if you're paying more for your auto loans or you're paying more on your credit cards or you're paying more for a new mortgage, then that's considered as as a cost of living issue that registers in those polls as a problem. And even though it may be the right thing to do to tamp down on on goods price inflation or services inflation, the um, double hit on public pockets is uh, politically toxic.

[00:07:39]And for For how inflation is creating headaches for the president, check out Mike's latest column. The link is in the show notes. And for any more on any of today's stories, head to reuters.com [music] or the Reuters app. Follow us on your favorite podcast player, and if you're on a smart speaker, just ask for the latest market news from Reuters [music] 7 days a week. We'll be back tomorrow.