If You Hold Bitcoin... You Might Want To Sit Down Before Watching This Video

Added: 2026-05-19

[00:00:04]I haven't been this scared since the last time I was this scared. And let's just say uh I'm not even that scared. Uh as we've been discussing like the last two or three videos, uh we went above the 10, 20, and 25 simple moving averages on the weekly chart, and we were most likely going to get a pullback. Currently, we're in the middle of doing that. This is our, as of recording right now, our fourth red daily candle in a row. And as we've been talking about, kind of coming down to right in right in this range where all of these moving averages meet.

[00:00:35]Again, this video is from a few days ago, so I'm going to put the real the updated chart on in a second. But I also did want to clarify, people were making comments that they get to see my recommended feed when I show this. Uh, except for this song. I haven't. None of these are my I don't I don't know why I'm getting recommended any of these. I don't watch I don't watch I don't even know. Oh, Gracie Abrams is pretty nice though, actually. But, uh, let's absolutely jump into it because as we've been discussing, the price of Bitcoin right now is in the middle of this pullback that we've been discussing for about a week or so. Obviously, if you look on a daily chart for Bitcoin, four red weekly, sorry, four red daily candles, we're on our fourth in a row right now after getting rejected at the 200day moving average. Pretty much, as we've said, the make or break moving average. Below it, we're bearish. Above it, it's full-on bull mode. Uh last time we were above it, you know, you can see we actually traded here for from October 10th to November 1st, pretty much an entire month trying to hold support. We failed. Had a little baby bounce, the giga dump, uh had a little baby bounce, the even gigglier dump, and here we are.

[00:01:52]So, and also I do want to highlight Whoops. I do want to highlight that yeah, as we've been talking about, one of the reasons we've been bearish in the short term is because the daily moving average has been oversold. Sorry, overbought. and uh the MACD and the RSI were saying like, hey, yeah, we need some sort of pullback. And that's what we're in the middle of right now. So, that's primarily why I'm making this update is to just say, hey, it's doing exactly what we've been expecting. It's going down a little bit, but that's not really valuable to you. What's valuable is where white might we see a bounce, and that's why we pull out this bad boy.

[00:02:24]But before we do, let's just look at a few very quick things here. Uh, Bitcoin ETFs record over a billion dollars in weekly outflows. First time in about six weeks.

[00:02:34]Rand says the calm before the storm perhaps.

[00:02:38]Uh maybe our traders are forecasting on Kashi that Bitcoin will crash to $55,000 this year. What do you think? Do you think that's going to happen? What that would look like on a weekly chart? Let's take a look, a little squeak peek at what 55,000 would look like on this chart.

[00:02:56]Boom.

[00:02:58]That was almost completely in line with my camera actually. Pretty cool. Uh it would look like this.

[00:03:08]That's pretty big. So from our current price, that would be about a wow 25 26% drop roughly. Actually, from right, it would be about a Yeah. 20 about almost a 30% drop from where we are now. That's pretty big. And you know, it's funny. In the past, I would say, you know, if Bitcoin drops that much, 30%, look out for alts. But, you know, it's not even really necessary to say that anymore because alts just I mean, what? They're already down like 95%.

[00:03:35]Oh, no, they might drop a little more.

[00:03:38]They're already they're already cooked.

[00:03:41]Do I even have to make a statement about alts anymore? They haven't done anything in five years. So, that's one silver lining is that can they go down more?

[00:03:50]Sure. But who cares? They're already dead.

[00:03:54]That's one of the the bonuses of uh of uh of this market is that Yeah. Yeah, I mean, how much can we lose? We already lost it all. Sure, take a little bit more. Why not? But anyway, that's what 55,000 would look like. Really, I'm going to shift gigab bearish. If we come down, we fall through this trifecta of moving averages. Right now, we've only gone below one of them as of the last, you know, very short amount of time, hours or so. Uh, if we set a lower low, this is where things get really bearish, and that would be anything below 66K pretty much.

[00:04:28]Of course, you need a daily, couple dailies, maybe a weekly close below there, you know, if it's a giant wick that immediately goes back up to like 70k, that's not bearish in my opinion.

[00:04:37]But if uh yeah, if we actually start setting even like one one daily close below 66K, you better believe your sweet buns that that's pretty bearish, right?

[00:04:48]There's no getting around that. Uh tickle me sideways. That's a that's a pretty bad That's a pretty That's a pretty big dump. So, but right now we're not there, right? We're just This is our only our second so far. We just started.

[00:05:01]This is our first red weekly candle of the last 1 2 3 4 5 6. I mean, technically this was one, but it was like a couple dollars away from being green. So, like not super bearish. You can even barely see the candle here, but uh yeah, right now we haven't gone below the 20 or 10 week moving average. So, and they both are kind of confluent with each other right at about 74,000.

[00:05:22]So, anything above 74,000 is par for the course. Even in a quick wick, let's say we go let's say we wick but then have a daily above 74. Still not bearish. Now again, this can turn pretty quickly bearish though if we lose this. Uh now keep in mind the the the lower h the lower low that we can't have happen to have any bullishness is uh below this level right here right about 66. So that's fine. But obviously, as we've been talking about, in the short term, there's going to be a pullback. As we've been saying for over a week now, we are now in the middle.

[00:05:56]We're initiating that pullback. Um, the first time we come up to this 200 day moving average in like uh 7 months, as we said, probably wasn't just going to go straight above it, especially considering that we just broke above the 10, 20, and 25 week moving average in one basic multi-week pump. So, as we've been saying, you know, pull back here necessary. So, um I'm really watching anything around 74ish, maybe a wick down to 72, something like that. Anything around there is still fine, healthy. If we go below that though, that's where things start getting major bear mode.

[00:06:31]And as I think it was my last video or the one before that, I said about a bear trap. This has the makings of a very nice bare trap currently. That's what we're possibly in the middle of doing, making people think, oh, it's just going to collapse down to, let's say, 55K or 50K. And uh and in fact, what if it doesn't? So again, we have to see wait see how it plays out. Uh one of the reasons Bitcoin is also down a little bit today is because when the stock market goes up, Bitcoin dumps. But when the stock market goes down, Bitcoin dumps. So it's one of those assets lately that just seems to go down more than it seems to go up. And um oh yeah, one other thing I wanted to highlight in terms of tweets was this.

[00:07:12]Uh, this guy has been only bear posting for like the past six months or something and I thought this post was funny. He said, "Bottom isn't in."

[00:07:18]Meanwhile, the guy is showing a chart depicting accumulation in a bottom formation and calls it distribution.

[00:07:24]Meaning like his own post contradicts what he's even saying. But I mean that I just think that's funny. Uh, he consistently posts rubbish engagement farmer with zero technical skill. Haha. This guy says, "Oh, he's a big purple line. Maybe this maybe the big purple line will do something. I mean, also right here, look at this. Looks like a little shift into green for the first time in a long time.

[00:07:47]Um or I guess not a very long time, but uh anyway, point being right now, yeah, Bitcoin is just this is the test really.

[00:07:55]Uh this is one of those moments where you can see a massive move. You know, if we break down here, again, I have to be honest here, unbiased. This is one of those times where if we break down here, it could happen pretty fast. It could be, you know, the stair stairs up, elevator down. This is one of those situations.

[00:08:12]Um, but here's the thing. If it holds and it actually gets support on these levels, it's giga mode. We're going, you know, get ready to long big time. And if you want to short as well, sign up to the exchanges below. Short it. If you think Bitcoin is going to dump, make some money off of it, right? Why not do that? But one thing I actually want to talk about as well is something that we were talking about in the last video, and that's the VRVP. Just showing where the biggest volume pockets are.

[00:08:37]And um we zoom out to include all of 2021. The first time we ever came up to 69K. Nice. Uh you can see that let's draw where this big level of support is on the VRVP right here. You see this giant block right at about a little over 70K. And you can see like the lower we go obviously there's more support historic like if you you know looking historically at this. So, uh, realistically what I could see happening is that if we, which I think we are going to continue this pullback this week, I think 70K has to act as a pretty big floor. Now, as I've been saying multiple times in this video, right, what did I keep what do I keep saying about the 10 and 20 moving averages, which are these two lines right here that look like they're about to be tip touching right here. Uh that's they're right now they're about 74K, but I would not be surprised if we if we did continue this pullback, which I think is more likely. Uh if we wick down, say something like this, bounce back up and hold ultimately on these two moving averages, that's the ideal retest before a possible bullish reversal, which would be a massive bare trap. Um that's that's the scenario if you're bullish that is kind of easy. uh makes sense very technically a strong thing to happen to price. But if you want to look for a straight up bullish oh sorry bearish scenario it looks more like this. We just fall through mainly this horizontal level right here as I keep saying where we spent like six six or seven weeks uh finding support. So that's a pretty strong support zone right we didn't have a single weekly close below about 66k or it was right around 65.8. eight, but rounding up to about 66. So, that's kind of where my head is at, if I'm being honest. Uh, I was getting some comments because I haven't posted in like three days. So, people were just asking for an update. Honestly, nothing to really update aside from the fact that it's just doing kind of what we were expecting in terms of short ter short-term move. As I've been saying for a couple weeks, I think that we have the op we like the earliest we could really shift into a very macro bullish trend again in terms of like getting a nice similar pump to this will probably be next month in June. We only have like 12 days left of this month, like two two weeks left of this month. Anyway, I think for the most part, the rest of May is likely to be biased uh or is likely to keep going down, reset some of these this daily momentum, right? You can already see it swinging over on the MACD. One of the good things about that though is daily daily chart shift pretty easily. So, even though this looks like, oh no, it's going to it's curling over.

[00:11:10]It's going to be bad. You know, this can be over in a week and and then we could like reset this, right? But obviously, we're extremely oversold here. uh in February and and what has happened.

[00:11:21]Well, keep in mind all of this was just basically sideways, but then we actually did start to move up uh at the beginning of April. And uh yeah, that's where we're at now. Um again, shortterm, I think 70 has to hold is really the big deal. If 70 doesn't hold on a weekly chart, then yeah, it's bearish. If 70 doesn't hold on a weekly chart, then all of the people that are saying like, "Hey, you know, October is where the bottom's going to be." There's a lot more validity to that. It's it's definitely more likely in my scenario if we fail 70. If we don't fail 70, zero shot in my opinion, right? And I think the good thing is we're going to find out relatively soon. I don't think this is something we have to wait super long for. Uh massive dump here, beginning of the year, spent the last couple months trending upwards. Now we have a retest.

[00:12:08]We have to see if this whole pump that we've seen for the past two months is actually the real deal or if it truly was just a massive bull trap. Right? One thing is for sure, we're in the middle of a trap. Whether or not it get gets confirmed as a bull trap or a bear trap, that's what we're finding out right now.

[00:12:26]Those are that's exciting. Um, pretty fun to trade as well. But yeah, uh, get signed up if you are interested in trading this. Put your money where your butt is if you're really so confident, right? Um, I'm currently still longing this. I have a lot of long positions open. Bitcoin I started longing at about 64 65K. So, I'm still in profit by a lot, but uh if we fail 70, then that long is going to quickly turn into a loss.

[00:12:51]Obviously, has to go below my entry price, but my point being if we lose 70, it probably will go below my entry price.

[00:12:59]Uh but anyway, I actually I'm going to go ride my bike now. It's so nice out.

[00:13:03]So bye.