XRP, Bitcoin, Altcoins & Gold: The Macro Outlook Nobody Is Watching

Added: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]So looking at the hash floor, this is an indicator I made for you a very long time ago uh for the Bitcoin crew and the Coinskate crew. You know, this is basically a Bitcoin indicator, but you know, we look at Bitcoin every single day on the XRP videos and many other videos because it is the health of the market. We need to see Bitcoin looking pretty healthy. So have a detailed look on Bitcoin today with yourselves. Uh, you know, I did used to make two videos a day and I will probably go back to making a separate Bitcoin XRP video, but I like to be extensive in my analysis as if I can with yourselves, you know, going forward because I don't like to make things up. I always like to, you know, back up my theories with substance and obviously technical analysis. Well, I don't I don't just make up figures out of thin air. I look at it, you know, and I look at the data as to why we could get there. So with Bitcoin, you can clearly see the BTC hash floor. Every time it comes back to it, you know, every time you come back down, you know, and you start to break above, you're looking pretty tasty. For example, we come all the way down there in the bare market of 2018. Got back above, never looked back. Got the impulsive move into the high, ABC zigzag back into it. Look at that. And then broke once more. And again, you can clearly see once you take it out, you're looking pretty tasty. you start to come back into it, found support, broke out again, found a little bit of support at the top of the hash floor just there, broke out, went sideways, you found support once more, and people are getting extremely bearish. So, I think what we've got here is just a sort of mild macro correction that could actually be over on this support just here for Bitcoin. And right now, it's giving up for a monumental move to the upside according to the data that I create for yourselves. These indicators are equally, you know, it's not just the hash flow that I create for yourselves. We've got the Bitcoin stat which shows clear distribution, accumulation, distribution basically.

[00:01:34]And what we've got, you see these green dots just there, these green circles, I relay to you, okay, you know, I'm buying Bitcoin here because the Bitcoin stat is telling me to do that. And when am I going to sell? I'm going to sell on the next red sale dot. So, if you accumulating in the range just there, eventually this comes up, you get your red cell dot, you begin distribution, take profit, see you later. And I'm just going to, you know, respect this. So, stay tuned for this. Once this pushes up into this red cell zone, which at the moment, it's nowhere near it. That is the time I think to look at some kind of distribution and take some profit on Bitcoin. And I'll relay that to you in time. And people are saying, "No way.

[00:02:05]You're an idiot. It's going to take off in space." And potentially it will. Uh but you know, I'm just respecting this particular indicator I create for yourselves called the Bitcoin Stad. So this isn't just this indicator. I've many, you know, made many more indicators for you to sink your teeth into uh going forward. For example, right now we got the done money indicator, haven't we? And and this was really really accurate in calling this macro top basically in late 24. And from there, like I said to you, I think we got a macro correction, some kind of a pushed up B. You know, the retail came in for a quick minute at top of that move in July last year and then, you know, been getting dumped on ever since.

[00:02:35]This is a retail dumb money indicator.

[00:02:37]It just represents, you know, dumb money coming into the market. You'll find at this time here, you know, dumb money was in the market and it was telling you, okay, you're going to get rich. You're buying crypto. What you buying? You know, I bought this. I'm it's going to take off in space. I'm going to get rich. And, you know, taxi drivers and hairdressers and things like that were talking about it at the time. And like I said to you and relayed to you at the time, be careful. If you're buying here, you're doing it wrong. Okay? There was many little old coins that did nice little pop and XRP was one of them. Uh but at that point, I did say to you, be careful here because historically, this has always been a telltale sign for some kind of macro correction. For example, we got it twice in 2021 and then we go all the way back to 2017. Look at that.

[00:03:14]We got it there as well, which led to that big macro correction. So, it is my opinion, we have actually been in a correction for almost, well, I say almost over a year and I think we may have actually bottomed down here. I think this is the bottom for Bitcoin.

[00:03:24]some kind of truncation for Bitcoin where technically what we've got is a one into a two into a three into a sideways four into a final drop five and in this final fifth wave to the downside we got a one sideways two breakdown three that lost this support going sideways truncated just there in a final fifth which held this low and from there you got 1 2 3 4 5 set up and then basically went sideways and ABC and right now it's the emergence of a third wave breaking out resistance taking out the Bitcoin hash floor and it's looking pretty tasty providing we don't see it fall back into that uh indicator basically into the hash floor. So every time you've come down into the hash floor, found support and broke above back test later. It's just been a beautiful data point and equally obviously that I relay to you with the Bitcoin accumulation band uh you know we're looking at. So I'm looking at the crypto breath confirmation as well which hasn't quite opened up yet and that actually involves a simple EMA called the 200 EMA on the daily time frame. It really is simple. If you can start to see Bitcoin breaking above that, which currently is finding resistance and obviously many altcoins, then you're going to see that breath of open up. It is that simple. Okay, it's a simple indicator that cate for the coins kit crew. Uh that basically look you see wave coming down. Oh no, it's zero. It's horrible. It's nasty. You know, you get your monster C wave as represented on how long you're down there at the base basically. And then eventually you open up as the breadth of the market opens up and you come up impulsively. Then you can clearly see look at these huge times of distribution just there. How long was your distributing just there for Bitcoin? Pretty much like you were distributing at that top as well in really really overextended above a 200 day EMA and then boom, you're dropping your ABC. You drop in your ABC. And right now for a very long time, just like this Cwave, we've been going sideways where we're not seeing that breadth open up. So, we need to see that because I think if we can start to see this breadth open up and I'll look at it today, uh, you know, we're going to start to see confirmation of the bottom from which Bitcoin's come, which in my opinion currently is this floor. Okay, so let's dive into charts, see what we can see. But going forward, it is pure data and this is what relying on the channel, not he said, she says, whatever. I'm a data driven analyst.

[00:05:23]Okay, let's dive into the charts. So, looking at the hash floor for Bitcoin at the moment, you know, you got this sort of lovely little ABC that we're going through. I think this is really impulsive. If you to take a look at this, got nice impulsive moves here that are coming up with stairs. I actually think there's a truncation there for Bitcoin uh as a possible scenario. Now, what we don't want to see is this the fact that this is some kind of wave 1 ABC wave two that's coming up like this.

[00:05:44]Everyone gets really really bullish. You know, it's a simple retracement to where you came from and then it begins to nuke over because this would indicate, okay, you've got some kind of wave one and the next wave will be a third wave which is very powerful to the downside. And with that, you know, you're taking out your cash flow support, aren't you? and you're breaking down below massive support which is basically your all-time high the previous bull market which was just there which is where you know at the moment Bitcoin's obviously finding support and you know you start to lose that support as well. So technically if you take a look for Bitcoin in the past you know that's your alltime high for Bitcoin. It came down found support slam bang on it and then you got your nuke into the hash floor and then you took off into space. It's very similar.

[00:06:24]You've got your support, the uptime high, you come back down, you nuke through it, and then you find support in the hash floor. So, basically, you're where you were there. Okay, the previous alltime high, the previous bull uh for Bitcoin was just here. This is exactly where you got the ABC, you swing high, you swing low, find support, up you go.

[00:06:41]So, if we're looking at a very similar situation, what you've done, you broke out, you come back into this support at the previous all-time high, you slam bang the hash floor as you were there, and you're looking for continuation to the upside, just like you're looking for this continuation to the upside. So, what I don't want to see from Bitcoin is the fact that you break down below this and turn this into resistance because, you know, you've never broke down below a previous bull market alltime high. If you start to do that then for me you're breaking quite a lot of structure because you'll be taking out you know your indicator where you've always found support at the bottom of the bear basically like you did there like you did there like you did here you know you build support on the bottom of the bear on the hash floor you know which is historically where you should buy more which is what I've done for Bitcoin but if we start to break down we turn this into resistance then you turning a previous all-time high of an impulse into resistance that's not necessarily a good look for Bitcoin because it's going to take a hell of amount of work to get back through that resistance and turn it support once more and it begins to, you know, break massive macro structure for me which could technically look really really bearish for Bitcoin. Uh, you know, at that point it's a guessing game as to where it's going to fall to because technically what you're doing for Bitcoin at the moment, you've come up impulsively into five waves into this high just there. You've gone some kind of ABC back into support at previous alltime high and back into this range looking for continuation. So potentially some kind of wave one into a regular wave two looking for a third wave. This next wave to the upside, you know, on paper is absolutely massive for Bitcoin.

[00:08:02]It's huge. It's massive. So, what is the driving force behind that potential massive third wave if we see it? And like I said to you, I think it's the Bitcoin gold chart. So, we'll take a look at that. But what I'm looking at right now, you see this indicator here, this is called the bread for the market confirmation. I made this a while ago for yourselves. So, what we're looking at, if we can start to see a gray line emerge out of this green dotted lines here, then this is where you were. Okay?

[00:08:25]This is where you were looking at the breadth of the market opening up and at that point you're looking at some massive moves across the board for crypto especially for XRP which I think could run to at least an $8 target. I'll go through that with you in today's video. Okay. So we'll take a quick look at the Bitcoin gold chart but you know going forward I don't want to see Bitcoin break down below this support.

[00:08:44]And this is what a lot of people are calling for. They're looking for you know 50k 40k 30k so on and so forth. But if you start to do that, you're negating the fact that, you know, you're breaking down pre, you know, below a previous bull market high, which to me is not a good look for Bitcoin. Let's dive into the Bitcoin versus gold chart because I may have found, you know, slam bang as we've come down here, I may have found the liquidity that's going to make this move for Bitcoin. Okay, so let's dive into the Bitcoin versus gold chart. So the Bitcoin versus gold chart, I said to you, for anyone paying attention, you know, we got a head and shoulders pattern just there. We broke down back test and boom, we dropped into the technical target and we've actually found a nice level of support on the 786. So the bottom may actually be in 1 2 3 4 five waves up into the ribbon.

[00:09:23]Some kind of ABC, you know, which is the ABC I'm anticipating in, you know, the fiat currency as well. Uh come back this structure, then you break below the third wave. That is what I want to see for this particular chart because that means that liquidity from gold, you know, is flown into Bitcoin. So technically what we've got is a beautiful move up here. Some kind of ABC got a kind of wave one that got a bit of ahead of itself and at the highs we've had an ABC zigzag. So this is a sharp C-wave. So we've got some kind of a in late December 2024. ABC ABC 1 2 3 4 5 waves down you know which could complete a C wave. And as I've taught you look at the Cwave how sharp it is. So right now we're looking at the emergence of an impulsive move into the ribbon. Come back make the higher low. This could be a massive opportunity in crypto if we see it. And then boom, you break up in a third wave. So, we're looking for the impulsive and corrective wave structure off the 786 fib for this particular chart. If this was to be some kind of wave four where basically got one, two, three, four, five, then I would be looking at this range here where I think we could create some kind of bottom. We need to see this chart trending back above this ribbon basically on the weekly time frame just like it did here.

[00:10:32]You come up into it one, two, three, four, five. you break out, you know, you go sideways in a wave two and you break pull in a three, come back in a four, find a fifth. At this point, I think you've been bearish in this chart, which is again confluence of the fact that I do think we've been macro bearish for crypto, especially Bitcoin since late 24, where we may have actually completed the correction just there. So, we're in the bottoming process here. I don't think we've got much further to go. You see this leg here? This represents a flush for me, a very powerful move, which is basically what this leg was, the third wave. So on the way up just like this third wave here. Look you got one two big three four five top came in there ABC zigzag one two three four five ABC zigzag. So you know I can understand why people are looking at something like this a bitcoin absolutely possible. But going forward it is all about the one fib for this particular chart. If this can hold the one fib after an impulsive wave into the alltime high some kind of ABC I think we're looking pretty tasty in this particular chart to go forward.

[00:11:26]So from this point, we need to see Bitcoin get its ass back up with the ribbon like it did there, printing your green bod. And at that point, I think we're in a massive third wave here. And obviously, you know, gold is the market cap of gold's massive, you know, it's like 30 trillion. If some of that can just trickle down into Bitcoin, this is where your big move comes from uh for Bitcoin, your big liquidity move into Bitcoin, which is obviously more attractive than holding on to gold. Uh so that's just basically a theory.

[00:11:51]Again, don't shoot a message if it don't play out. But I think what we've got is a wave one into resistance, an ABC at resistance, and this is the next big powerful move for Bitcoin that comes from Bitcoin versus gold. That's the big monumental third wave, which is exactly what we got there. But at the time, no one can see it. And I remember how pessimistic and bearish people were in crypto at that particular point as well, just after the Corona dump. So we could be in for a massive vertical like this in this particular chart, which will be a third wave. And with that, you know, for anyone that remembers, this is the time that we saw altcoins go absolutely vertical and break out to the upside.

[00:12:23]So, let's take a look at the XRP chart.

[00:12:25]I wish looked with this, but going forward, keep an eye on this chart. The ticker is BTC XAU. This is your macro support break down below that then obviously Bitcoin is looking pretty bearish and obviously that follow through to crypto. Let's dive into the XRP chart, see what we can see. Okay, so looking at XRP on a Friday time frame, we may actually be creating some kind of cup and handle pattern here. And this is basically pattern trading is what I like to do on the channel. We've traded many patterns over the years. We've had a lot of success. And obviously sometimes the patterns don't work out. And you know, if anyone's been tuning in, what I do tend to look for is an invalidation of my patterns. Okay? So, for example, you know, you come up, you're creating a head and shoulders pattern that looks a little bit like that. And I always say to you, okay, I'm going short, my stop loss is the head to negate the pattern.

[00:13:07]And obviously, you know, starts to come around and it doesn't lose a neckline and starts to come back up, you negate the pattern. Okay? So this is what I do.

[00:13:14]You know, I'll always apply stop loss to a pattern that, you know, basically negates the pattern. And it's the same thing here. And it's the same thing that I told you yesterday to negate the potential 1 2 3 4 5 setup of a leading diagonal. It's this low. So it's the same thing in this cup and endle pattern. Right now, we found a level of resistance. We've come back down. We're creating this sort of base. And when we come back up into the same resistance, and right now, we've got a falling wedge, which is getting tight possibly into that gold candle back test before it breaks this resistance. I think one thing we could do is just be patient for a long here for XRP. And I keep people updated in the Discord because right now we've got a corrective price structure that's rolling back over after a potential move to the upside. And what we've got if we come back into this god candle back test and we begin to break that resistance. I will go long. I will put my stop loss down here on this pivot low to negate the pattern of a breakout.

[00:14:03]Really simple. Okay. But the true invalidation of the leading diagonal, the expanded leading diagonal that I relayed to you in yesterday's video is a 1, two, three, four, five setup is the same low as the basin of the cupandle.

[00:14:15]So if we break out here, this isn't a technical target from the head, you know, at the basin. Really simple. Break out this neckline, you're up here, you're looking pretty tasty to a minimum target around about $163 703. So I'm being really patient. Like I said to you, in this game, you have to be really patient. From here, it might not be a bad idea to put some bids on that go candle back test just there where you've got this range and you broke out. If you take a look, you got that range and you broke out and you've already filled it just there. You see that range? You got a god kind of breakout just there. That's where you found support. You come up, you've got another breakout into the resistance.

[00:14:48]You may be retracing in a falling wedge into the same support roughly. What is that? Around about 139113.

[00:14:55]And then boom, you're out of there. And you're looking at a nice move, a minimal 17% trade for a very, very minimal stop loss down here around about 1.02% at the bottom of this range here for XRP. And obviously, if you want to get even greater, you know, the invalidation of a cupandle will be this low here, around about 3.27%.

[00:15:14]So, this is trading. This is what I do.

[00:15:16]You know, this is what I've done for many years. And I always look for the invalidation to negate my trade setups like I've taught you. You know, if you see inverse head and shoulders patterns like this, you put your bids in on the retracement. You put your stop loss on the head basically to negate the trade.

[00:15:29]And then obviously if it starts to break out, super bowl, fantastic TP at the technical target. And then obviously if it breaks down, you get stopped out to negate the pattern. This is pattern trading. This is what I do on the channel. I've been doing it for many years with a lot of success. So always have an invalidation. Right now your invalidation is 134 554 4XRP. you know, off a potential God candle back test just there in a falling wedge that's doing something like this. Find support, start to come up, back test, see you later. You're looking pretty tasty to come up and eventually break out of this cup and end uple pattern that's found resistance to the same high, you know, and then it's looking for retracement, looking for continuation. The invalidation, really simple. This is your stop loss because obviously this negates a 1 2 3 4 5 setup as well of an expanding leading diagonal, which is what I shown you in yesterday's video.

[00:16:17]So this is basically trading. Okay, I'll keep you updated on this trade as best I can. But right now, uh, you know, it might not be a bad idea to put some bids at this level here roughly. What is that? 139206 and then put your stop loss at 134554 for XRP. It's around about 3.2% loss for a minimal 17% um, pop basically where we could even go beyond that in a massive go candle up to roughly $180. So I wish everyone most luck with that going forward. But again, not going to crystal a ball, can't see into future. This is simple pattern trading. But right now, we do look as though we're forming some kind of falling tightening wedge. And these are technical, you know, technically these are reversal patterns going forward. Okay, traded many of these in my life. So you got this resistance, you got this support. If we start to take out the resistance, you know, I'll just jump into a long anyway with my stop on the previous pivot low to negate the trade. Really tight stop loss. I'll keep you updated on this trade as best I can. Take care everyone.

[00:17:10]Back to update on XRP. If you're looking for real time updates on XRP, jump into the Discord. Take care.