IREN Stock Analysis, Heavy Dilution Scheduled?!

追加: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]All right, guys. Welcome back. So, this is a quick update. I ran So, today, what is it? 4.6% Let me bring up moving averages.

[00:00:08]So, stock uh pulling back after earnings support uh from 65, 67, whatever the level it was to 50. It's a pretty big pullback. Uh volume was elevated after earnings, and it's fading back to normal right now. So, support somewhere around here for me uh anytime it cracks this moving averages and hovers around here, I will be short biased. But, as long as it stays here, yeah, so far it's bullish. But, here's what I want to show you guys. So, it reminds me Okay, let's zoom out. Look at this chart. So, this stock goes from $5 to 76, pulls back to 30, goes to 65, pulls back to 30, goes to 65, and then pulls back to 50.

[00:00:56]Uh Riot Platforms, I think What is it? Iron Iron still mines? Or they're not mining anymore?

[00:01:06]I want to show you guys this chart of uh Riot Platforms, where this stock goes from $3 to 79, pulls back to 35, goes to 65, comes back to 38, goes to 62, and then comes straight back down to 200 day moving average over 21.

[00:01:26]And then does this shenanigan for the rest of the year, and then fades straight back to where it came from, essentially. Uh again I'm not saying that Iron has to do that, but um the reason why Riot did it Riot Platforms back in the day, they had very low outstanding shares back then, like 67, something million. So, as soon as their stock took off in 2021, from 100 million, they went to and they just kept diluting like they went all the way to 380 at the moment. Uh and stock is at the time, what is it? Right platforms, it's at 25 right now.

[00:02:09]Okay.

[00:02:11]But the capitalization is higher than this level. Okay?

[00:02:15]So, here's what's going on with Iron.

[00:02:19]I'm going to show you guys a couple things.

[00:02:22]Iron has How much has they diluted?

[00:02:28]Iron has diluted since 2025 Well, since 2023, well, we took off when?

[00:02:36]2024, okay?

[00:02:38]Uh 2024, it was 186 million outstanding shares right there.

[00:02:47]And then, dilution, dilution, so far we sit at 360.

[00:02:53]Uh here's another thing I want to show.

[00:02:55]We're going to jump into the SEC filings right now, but let's take a look at the market cap.

[00:03:01]Iron market capitalization chart.

[00:03:04]You guys can see Uh can I How do I Oh my [snorts] goodness, but I cannot zoom it. So, but the point is uh I want to make here is um Do you guys see this high right here?

[00:03:24]Around like 17, 18 billion dollars right there, okay? This peak in the beginning of uh at the end of 2025.

[00:03:33]And then right here, this is um 18.

[00:03:38]Give or take 19 billion dollars.

[00:03:41]And then right here, at the moment, stock is at the same value as 18 billion dollar valuation, okay?

[00:03:47]At its tippity top, um it was 18.1 billion valuation right here.

[00:03:57]Hold on a second. So, at the 76 before dilution, it was 18 billion. At this 50, it's still 18 billion dollars.

[00:04:10]Okay?

[00:04:11]So, what does that mean?

[00:04:13]A lot of people don't understand it, but the point is your shares got pretty much cut what, 30%?

[00:04:22]If it was if 76 right here, literally in November, it was 18 billion dollar company.

[00:04:29]Now at 50, it is still 18 billion dollar company.

[00:04:34]And then another thing is we jump into SEC, we just take a look at that latest prospectus for 24.

[00:04:42]I'm going as far as what?

[00:04:46]March 4th, where they said they want to dump 6 billion worth of ordinary shares.

[00:04:55]Stock is back then March 3rd March 4th March 5th it was at 40 something right there.

[00:05:09]And that means well, let's say this was just to make it easy, 18 billion, right?

[00:05:15]So, they want to dump 6 billion. So, they they want to dilute you another 30%. Okay? So, I don't know how much of this 6 billion they have dumped, but let's say they want to dump it. They were dumping it from 40 all the way to 65 something. We can just divide it by Of course, they're not going to dump everything at the same price, but I'm just going to give it 45 bucks.

[00:05:45]And then it would give me roughly how much uh shares they're about to dump if they're going to get that average price. Again, this is just rough, okay? I'm not saying that it has it's anything precise, but 133 million shares coming your way, okay? So, if you're trading this stock, you have to keep that in mind. So, for me, yeah, I think uh it will be it will take pretty good catalyst to run this stock now from this 50 to 75 because that would be how much of a rally now?

[00:06:21]That would be 50% rally. So, $18 billion stock would have to go to $27 billion.

[00:06:30]So, that would be uh $9 rally would take it to this high. So, a lot of people look at the chart and they don't pay attention to dilution, but yeah, if you don't understand it, there you go. Look at the market capitalization chart, okay? So, I can give you guys one other example.

[00:06:51]I do it with other stocks, too. Uh where this is just a perfect uh precise I great example.

[00:06:59]This is AutoNation, okay? AutoNation market capitalization at this moment is $6 billion.

[00:07:05]If you go take a look at it, this is a chart of the market capitalization of this stock.

[00:07:11]Uh 2000s early uh in 2020 in 2015, but we don't have to go that far. 2020 highs, it was somewhere around this $7 billion.

[00:07:23]It's still right there.

[00:07:24]But if you take a look at AutoNation chart and then zoom out to those years, we can just took a look at the weekly chart.

[00:07:34]In 2020, this stock was $40 stock, $20 stock, okay?

[00:07:41]So, $20 stock, now it's $180 stock. It went to 230.

[00:07:49]In the past 5 years, the reason why is the capitalization stayed same.

[00:07:56]They did a buyback. Instead of diluting you, they bought shares back.

[00:08:03]And then pretty much they increased your slice of pizza more and more.

[00:08:09]This is like really good chart that I liked. I mean, there's also DaVita, I think they they did a lot of aggressive buybacks. That's why I personally, my point is I like companies that are doing buyback, but I hate companies that are doing dilution aggressively like this because it's going to turn into riot.

[00:08:28]Right there.

[00:08:29]Uh sooner or later it's going to turn into riot because I don't know if they're going to keep diluting more.

[00:08:36]Once they dump that 6 billion, uh how aggressive they're going to be, I don't know, but you got to be careful. If you're like if you're thinking, "Oh, long term, long term."

[00:08:47]If they keep cutting your uh slice of pizza in half every 6 months or every year, let's say, uh it's going to be very hard for you uh to keep your pizza as a whole, okay? This is my point with Iron. So far, in terms of just looking at the chart, um it's looking okay for me for now.

[00:09:08]But again, just by looking at I didn't see last time I talked about this one that they were planning to dump 6 billion ordinary shares. And also, if you come to this dilution tracker, they will show you also like convertible notes that that might convert. And also, even SEC itself, like if you go all the way down, they're going to tell you themselves like how much of um cuz they have issued some convertible um bonds, right? Expiring like throughout those years all the way to like 2030 or something.

[00:09:43]Every year those bonds will convert and then they will dump. Convert, dump, convert into shares or just dilute you guys.

[00:09:51]If you just scroll or you just copy this whole SEC form and then put it on a Grok or ChatGPT or whatever, it will explain you in your language, but this is as simple as I can make.

[00:10:07]So, this is my update for Iron.

[00:10:11]Watching this support area.

[00:10:14]45. If it cracks and it stays heavy, then yeah, I will be short biased every stock, any stock, literally. Not only this stock. Any stock trades below 200-day moving average, stays there, I will be short biased. So, it's not only this stock. So, again, this is just my take. This is just a quick update. This is not a buy or sell recommendation.

[00:10:39]This is purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. Thanks for watching. I'll see you guys in the next one.