Blue Origin Anomaly | Medium Lift is NOT SOLVED! | Rocket Lab Weekly Ep 137

Ajouté : 2026-06-02

[00:00:04]I never know when we're live.

[00:00:06]Uh I think >> the stream guard says it's live, but Oh, the view count changes.

[00:00:11]>> Yeah. Yeah. I I got complaints from people that I press live and then I say, "Welcome to Rocket Lab Weekly." And then they're like, "It's cut in the middle."

[00:00:20]So I I usually chitchat. But I think now we're live for sure.

[00:00:24]>> Yeah.

[00:00:24]>> Curtis, how's it going? So welcome everybody. This is Rocket Lab Weekly uh episode 137 and the other guys are too rich to be with us. Um they they need a pullback to come back on the show. Uh so we only have the most enthusiastic ones, which is Jacob and me.

[00:00:47]>> Let's go.

[00:00:48]>> So let's go. Let's go. So how how has your week been, Jacob?

[00:00:53]>> Incredible. Um yeah, I hit uh all-time highs in my portfolio on Thursday. Um didn't on Friday, dropped a little bit, but uh yeah, no, it's been an incredible week. Um >> uh the as I I had a really big call um call play on as it paid off really well.

[00:01:14]So that was >> that was nice. It's been good. Um >> yeah, exciting. There feels like tons of news. How's your week been?

[00:01:21]>> Yeah, the same. It's like, you know, the the like I mean, I don't understand how there can be so many green days on Rocket Lab. Uh my portfolio is basically 100% Rocket Lab. So, it's been like all-time highs after alltime highs after alltime highs. And uh I think on Thursday, we had like plus 8% in in the opening >> and then like I'm getting very close to like retiring my parents and then I was like, "Oh my god, today like might be the day when we reach that, you know."

[00:01:50]But then like it disappeared after the opening. But yeah, it it still could Yeah. Couldn't couldn't be any better.

[00:01:58]>> Yeah. I mean, and it keeps like I I guess. So I I'm always also always surprised when it goes up and then it stays up higher like it is for longer.

[00:02:06]like I but this it's done this several times where like goes up to some new like um level and it like gets a good I don't know week two three weeks in that level before it kind of trails off and then there's always like a day or something like that where it hits the peak and then it drops off. So I'm still expecting like one more like shooting star kind of like >> hit 160 or something and then we'll we'll fade. But we'll see. Yeah, it it's so interesting because I I see a lot of people discussing like, yeah, this is a good place to trim and some people are like, yeah, it's really overvalued now.

[00:02:37]And I I I agree to these things. So, I'm not talking about the valuation, but I I do think that what is driving this price is the SpaceX IPO. And that is like three weeks away. and and uh and then on top of it when SpaceX IPOs it's going to be fasttracked into the like I do think that for good or bad we're going to be like pegged with SpaceX. So if uh SpaceX goes up 3% we're going to go up something similar if SpaceX goes down we're going to again for better or or worse you know. Yeah, I've been telling people like get prepared. Like we'll see how the how the stars start reacting the next time Starship blows up because I they're gonna have more explosions before they get that thing figured out.

[00:03:20]So, I don't know. be interesting because it's no longer this like private entity and so it's it might start, you know, we we're gonna have to start all start paying attention to that stuff to see how it like >> Yeah, I'm super I I'm actually super excited to see how the market reacts to that because I I remember like there was a period when Rocket Lab was down in the $4 and then you know like every time we had a successful launch the price like went down 5%. And then if Neutron like had an anomaly then we went down 20%. So it was like >> and and I'm like how because you know like the last uh Starship flight like was that like because we don't we don't see the market being open, right? It was a test flight. And was that a success or not? I mean we >> it didn't I mean >> yeah it was a test anyway >> up in orbit so it wasn't the worst flight they've had. They they actually able to you know use the dispenser and stuff. So >> yeah, it went better than for Blue Origin, right? Yeah. Yeah, that's rough.

[00:04:19]Oh, man. I mean, we'll get to that one, but that one was that was crazy. I was actually like so like happy Thursday was such a good day. I was all relaxed and everything and I f I like look in and I I literally saw like two minutes after it happened and I was like, "Oh, no."

[00:04:33]But it was like six o'clock at night, so I was like everything was already closed. I don't know. Yeah.

[00:04:37]>> Yeah.

[00:04:38]>> Happens.

[00:04:38]>> It's funny. I I just saw on Twitter and then I saw like a post by Blue Origin that said like all personnel like because they like Blue Origin like didn't post the films. I I first saw their post and it was like all personnel are accounted for and safe and I was like what the heck happened that they have to write like and then I saw the video and I'm like Jesus Christ I'm so happy everybody made it out of that.

[00:05:02]>> Yeah. I mean, and and the worst thing was like it was night too when it happened. So, everybody's like speculating like no one knows what this the site looked like until the next day.

[00:05:10]And so, yeah, there was a lot there was a lot of uh panic that night for sure.

[00:05:14]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But but back to Rocket Lab pricing. So, what's interesting to me is uh so I think after the IPO, uh SpaceX is still going to rally for like a month or two because it's going to be fasttracked into the into NASDAQ. And like keep in mind, I think we're going to be connected with it. And then my worry is like what happens after, right? But like what if what if Rocket Lab runs to 250 or I mean I I don't know. Again, it's like the valuation doesn't make any sense. I'm I'm just saying that I think we're going to be connected to like SpaceX valuation doesn't make any sense either by the way. And then >> and then is SpaceX going to drop like you know because you can you can have this dip after the IPO and then okay if we get like a 50% or 70% dip are we like as a community ready for that that that's going to be like of no fault of Rocket Lab's own it's just like we're going to be connected to another much bigger dog.

[00:06:17]>> Yeah. I mean in some senses like if you look at like so last summer right we had hit um we had hit all-time high like I don't know it was like mid it was like July where we hit an all-time high but then afterwards we came all the way back and nearly touched the 200 day uh line again early September and we got we went from like what was it uh 60 down to 36 or what was that like a 40% drop >> um just last summer down to down by the end of August and then we you know when we shot up to 102 too. So, oh, sorry, that's the wrong stuff.

[00:06:50]Close because I market or so trail each other. Uh, the numbers change a little bit, but we still have like a 40% drop or something like that after a high last June or July. So, I mean, I don't know. I guess we'll play it by ear when it happens, but I also think that like it's it goes in cycles. So I so far to me it's not like it's like blown way outside of like the the it's still it's still like it's running the upper end of the channel of like the logarithmic channel it's been on for the last couple years but it's not like it's so far out of that it's like this is you know it's it's it's completely changed from its from the TA part of it. I'm not a TA expert but but I've seen other people post these channels and stuff like that. So I don't know. I guess I'm not sure. I know that like um I think some of it will depend on on SpaceX's earnings calls, right? they going to grow the revenue like we expect them to with like the anthropic deal and stuff like that. So maybe if they start if their revenue is growing and stuff like that and probably maybe they'll be able to catch their valuation that way and then you know also us growing is going to depend on that as well but yeah we'll see. I don't know how how crazy it'll get in June July could go crazy.

[00:07:56]>> So what what's what's your prediction like are we because I I mean my point with this dialogue is not I see somebody's like I hope we're not only going to be discussing price. know there is a lot of discussion after but I just know that it's on a lot of people's minds so I I wanted to just just touch that because I see a lot of people are saying like this can't go any higher the valuation is crazy and what I have learned from uh having written cover calls on both Rocket Lab and Palanteer that the price can always go higher >> right yeah I mean like if if I look at this logarithmic should I can I should I share this or should we wait until after the news all right let me share it really fast. Um, screen share.

[00:08:40]I'll get faster at this.

[00:08:44]>> Nothing up there that you guys are doing. Yeah. Okay.

[00:08:47]>> So, this this right here. Um, >> sorry. We can ignore that.

[00:08:54]>> Uh, >> why is it Okay, now I've added your >> Okay, so this is I this is just Rocket Lab. It's just the daily chart. I zoomed it way out. 2025 is down here. Um let me move that. So this line right here it's this this scale by the way is it's logarithmic. So it's base 10. It helps um like for these big up channels. This is this is basically picking that first high point we got after that first big that that would have been the all of um 24 right here November or whatever. That was that big first jump up. So from that we've been like running this peak line.

[00:09:28]We just kind of barely hit it but like so we're just running along this line here. But if you look at this line at mid June, it's up at 160. By July, it's like 170 or by end of by July 1st or so.

[00:09:41]Like you could get I could see it running along this this as I'm pointing my finger. I could see it running along this line up through like that's why I'm like, yeah, I don't know. I could see it get to 170. I don't think it's going to hold up there for very long. I think, you know, we'll retrace like we have every other time we've touched this line like you know. So from that first year, that first winter we got up there, hit it, right? Then we had the big tariff day news. We came up and basically touched it again in July of last year.

[00:10:07]That was that last big run up. And then yeah, we kind of like went flat to down.

[00:10:11]And then we touched it again in October.

[00:10:13]Oops.

[00:10:15]Oh, no. I can't undo that, can I?

[00:10:19]Oops. Well, whatever. It's gone. Um, so, uh, yeah. Anyways, it it like it basically we touched that line and we'll come back down to it again, but uh I'll stop sharing it because I'm not a TA guy.

[00:10:30]Um, >> no problem. No problem.

[00:10:33]>> I I guess basically like I could see 170. I wouldn't panic if it hit one. I would be really crappy about it. And for me, I would I would cover calls up there. But >> I'm pretty sure we're going to run to 200 on like on the IPO high. And And I I'm just like, we ran so much so quick and the IPO is still like two weeks away. And I'm like, if if we're going to do like we need we need a pullback at some point. Let's hope this is the pullback and then we can, you know, like take a breather for a few days and then run again. But, uh, like if if SpaceX IPOs and then SpaceX continues to go nuts, you know, then then what? I'm like then do we go to like 250 or Yeah, I guess we're we're going to see. But uh >> yeah, I mean that that so if it did break that line and went way above it, I would be more nervous about it taking a much longer recovery time like how Planet Palunteers kind of like it hit up and then it kind of had that like longer breakdown. Now it it's you know it's it's not like it's done or any of that, but I can see the recovery time to us trying to touch new alltimes highs again take a lot longer if we break way above that that uh trend. I don't know.

[00:11:42]>> It's like a gravity or something like that. It just takes it takes over.

[00:11:46]>> We're going to see. We're going to see.

[00:11:48]Okay, cool. So, let's start the news for this week.

[00:11:52]Uh here we go. Uh so, the first news is uh Rocket Lab has fully passed the system requirements review for the space development agency's tracking layer trench 3 constellation. Um so yeah I I think that these announcements have more bookkeeping significances and then they are able to invoice um you know so so I I think they're not giving any like we don't know if this was like on schedule or not schedule. I'm going to guess that this was on schedule. So I I think this is very good for the space systems for the next earnings call but other than that I'm I'm not sure what other significance this has. What do you think Jacob? Um, I mean it lines up with uh we saw some um allocations come in on this contract on SAM.gov and so like they don't necessarily line up to revenues per quarter or anything else like that but we saw the contract move on that side like the the money was allocated for it.

[00:12:49]So yeah, I mean it it'll help with keeping them at that 240 goal they're going for this quarter for revenue. So that that's good. And then I'm trying to remember I feel like we had it was around this time when we had it was right after this is when we learned the uh subsystem announcements that we got with Tanch 2. Like didn't they do this this uh system requirements announcement and then right afterwards they were saying oh we now we selected our subs which we have less this time for this for this particular um constellation but we I don't know. I feel like we're going to get we'll we'll uh have those sub announcements maybe soon if we have other subcontracts.

[00:13:24]>> Yeah, probably. Probably. Yeah. But yeah, other than that, I mean, it's a good thing. Uh I Yeah, I don't but I same thing. I don't know the timeline.

[00:13:31]Uh I don't know if there is I don't know if that's public or not.

[00:13:35]>> No, I'm not sure. But I think they're doing good on the contract. There there's no indications on any calls or interviews that they they are not on time with the SDA contract. So we just suppose that they are they are good.

[00:13:48]>> Yeah. No, it's good. I mean this is Yeah. This is like this is the premier contract to be in right now. Well, I mean, for what we're I think I think the AMTI thing that's we'll be in that vendor pool as well. Just uh SpaceX has gotten the first big chunk out of that, but I think we're in the vendor pool for it. We'll see.

[00:14:09]>> Yeah. Yeah. Cool. Somebody says 200 feels impossible. Dude, I remember when Rocket Lab was in the fours and 30 seemed impossible and then we went to 30 and then we went to 60 and then 60 felt impossible. I remember sitting here and we were asking who's buying and then Matt money was like I'm still buying Rocket Lab and how much of a genius move that was to buy at 60 if you look at the price now. So, uh, so, um, yeah, the stock price doesn't care about our feelings and and and and again, I I also think we're running ahead of our skis, but it's it's I do think that we are running on on the IPO hype and the IPO is not for another two weeks and then even after that, there is the NASDAQ inclusion of SpaceX and I think that that's all going to seep into Rocket Lab and um, yeah, so It's not a comment on the valuation for me. I I agree. It's it's uh it's not not cheap at this point.

[00:15:13]>> Yeah. But I mean that's the bull market, right? Everything is high value. I mean across the space sector it is. But it's not just just our sector. Like the whole I mean it's been very like bull markety since since what end of 23 maybe early 24.

[00:15:29]>> Um >> and it's like just hasn't been stopped.

[00:15:32]So like I yeah there's going to be high valuations. Um, I I hopefully we're we're we're gonna, you know, Rock Lab will grow into it. But, yeah, I don't know. We'll see. I I don't I don't know.

[00:15:42]I guess I'm not stressed about where it's going like like what price is going to get to. I'm more trying to focus on what the company is like they keep executing and keep doing really well.

[00:15:52]And we had had we had a lot of like just from ourselves too, we had a lot of positive momentum in the last quarter.

[00:15:58]>> All of the, you know, Gaus and other contracts and stuff like that going. So, we got we got some >> Yeah.

[00:16:04]I mean, the last quarter was was a was a blowout quarter. Like, it it's >> it really could not have been better.

[00:16:10]The only thing was like Neutron is not flying yet. But other than that, I'm like, what do the Bears have on Rocket Lab other than it feels expensive, >> right? And and we were we were t talking about that after Blue Arches rocket blew up. We were like, "Yeah." Um, uh, I think Tran said it was like like, "But I'm no longer I'm no longer stressed about, um, neutron being delayed as long as we never have to go through that.

[00:16:33]Take all the time you need in the world, Peter."

[00:16:36]>> Yeah.

[00:16:39]>> It's so crazy. I was thinking about it the other day that you know like which method is is better because you know like M just goes ahead and blows everything up and then he figures it out and then you know like Sir Peter Beck seems to be more on the like he's he's like for forgive me everyone for saying this but he's more like towards the Blue Origin side where he's like he wants to test more and you know be be more thorough and and I'm not saying he is like them but he's more like towards on a scale his his uh cuz cuz Rocket Lab doesn't have infinite money, you know, so they're more like careful with with what they do.

[00:17:19]>> And then I was wondering like, yeah, but the rocket still blows up. So I'm like Musk is kind of right in his approach that it's just go ahead and it's any it's just going to blow up, so you you know, might as well hurry. And >> I feel like Blue Origin is trying to like transition. They've been like the the epitome of like go slow all the way up until you know new lens started launching and then they're trying to like transfer over to this like basic style of like fail fast kind of thing.

[00:17:47]But um uh Peter I believe it was to Madison in the last interview we did but he basically said that like we're somewhere between like a ULA style um and a SpaceX where it's like we fail quickly at the component level but by the time it gets up to like you know the full rocket we don't we don't expect it to fail. So, like when we see the, you know, cracked interstage or the first tank fail, like I'd much rather it be that non-energetic explosion on the ground than than uh having it happen on the pad kind of thing. So, >> yeah.

[00:18:17]Cool. All right. So, the next piece of news is Motive Space Systems has been fully acquired uh this week uh which I guess is fantastic news for the future Mars uh sample return program.

[00:18:32]Um, but other than that, not not much more to say about that. What what do you think, Jacob?

[00:18:37]>> I mean, yeah, it's great. And then I'm excited to see what they if they're going to like they might have so much internal demand for the uh saters, the solar array um solar array something. Oh man, I can't say it now. Solar array >> assembly. I don't remember what it is, but the the drive assembly, that's the word. Um anyways, but like I think that uh uh I'm excited to see what that actual like if they like have it as a component product. Um because I think they're gonna have a lot of internal demand for that. But then also um Motive has has contracts with the US government right now and they just got a like a bump on one like within the last week which was millions of dollars. I um it was like um an ad like another milestone payment kind of thing. Uh I don't have it in front of me but look it up if you're curious. So, I don't know.

[00:19:27]There's like they still have they still like like like he said during your interview, they still have to like stand on their own. All these companies do.

[00:19:33]So, it's I don't know. I get excited when like I heard that. I don't know.

[00:19:37]Ever since I've heard that like that strategy just I got I've gotten really excited about how how they're acquiring how they're doing all this stuff all these companies.

[00:19:46]>> Nice. Nice. Nice. And then we have had the uh 88th uh launch uh with Electron.

[00:19:54]Uh that was Viva Strix uh the 18th launch no 18 no so that was the ninth launch for sins inspective and 18 more launches to go uh and Scottto is not here with us today he's too rich to be on but he's amazing at knowing like exactly how many launches are in this quarter and how many more are coming so uh I will let him >> I I'm I'm with it every time I try to I find something that might be a hint did an excellent I always tag him in it. But um yeah, I think that was our I think that was our ninth for the year and third for the quarter quarter is all I can tell you, but I don't have a I don't have the same um level of detail on what the next ones are coming. Just just what's on their website now.

[00:20:39]>> All right, we got a comment here. It says, "Do you have a Patreon? Because we all need to make a donation for a real microphone. Sounds like he's in a tin can."

[00:20:47]>> Oh, my bad. Let me see if I can switch to the Let me Let me know if this is worse or better.

[00:20:57]>> Just give your Patreon.

[00:21:00]>> I don't have one. I don't know what that is.

[00:21:02]>> Okay. Okay.

[00:21:05]>> This does this sound any better? It changed up or down?

[00:21:11]>> I'm not sure.

[00:21:14]>> Uh I don't know. Sorry. Um I I Yeah, this is because I don't apparently >> on Wednesday nights too saying it's uh or on Tuesday saying I like I sound like I'm in something. I don't stream guys.

[00:21:27]What do you want from me?

[00:21:31]No, no problem. Okay, cool. So, we go to the next one. Uh nine years ago, we launched Electron for the first time.

[00:21:38]Later this year, Electron is expected to reach 100 launches, likely making it the fastest privately developed orbital rocket to hit that milestone from its attest to one of the world's highest cadence launch vehicles in under a decade. Here's a little walk down memory lane. And I thought we can watch this together. Please >> let me know if there's sound.

[00:22:00]>> Is there sound? Yeah, >> I can hear. Yeah.

[00:22:02]>> Yeah. Awesome.

[00:22:08]In all stations, this is flight on mission cord.

[00:22:13]We're starting the terminal count at this time.

[00:22:18]Clock is tminus 12 minutes mark. T-minus 12 minutes and counting.

[00:22:24]>> FSC on mission code. Are you confirm?

[00:22:27]Confirm. FTS confirm. FTS is green.

[00:22:30]>> FTS is green on internal power.

[00:22:42]PMS on mission code.

[00:22:45]>> Confirm. All separation events are off.

[00:22:47]Confirmed.

[00:22:53]>> Rom. This is flight by mission coord.

[00:22:55]Reverify cola windows and confirm release of the t-minus 2hour balloon.

[00:23:01]>> RM LC on air code. Commence fire suppression system test.

[00:23:06]>> Stage one lock suppress. Stage two lock suppressed.

[00:23:08]>> Flight vehicle is ready.

[00:23:10]>> T-minus 10 seconds.

[00:23:16]5 4 3 2 1 Liftoff.

[00:23:25]Liftoff confirmed.

[00:23:29]People has cleared Japan.

[00:23:37]>> Stay tuned if you got it.

[00:23:41]>> Stage separation succeed.

[00:23:56]That's pretty sweet.

[00:23:58]I don't remember if I had seen that before. It's a It's the like like their first launch or something like that, right? But yeah, it's pretty cool.

[00:24:05]>> I didn't know that this meme like when Sir Peter Beck is jumping. I didn't know it was from this launch.

[00:24:10]>> It's awesome.

[00:24:11]>> It's It's also um at the be They also have him at the beginning of every launch like the intro video. It's It shows that scene too.

[00:24:18]>> Um which like because I didn't know I didn't know that too. the guy that's like in the foreground of that where he's where he's clapping in on headset.

[00:24:24]That's that's Tury or Tury or something like that. He's like number employee number four. He's still like the head of global launch or something like that.

[00:24:32]>> So yeah, he's still there too. Yeah, it's really cool. Yeah, I >> Yeah, I don't know. I always get excited about that stuff and like seeing like how it's changed and the progress it like I don't know. It reminds you of like this is not that many years ago where we at now from there. Yeah.

[00:24:46]>> Yeah. A huge change. Is that uh where the electron booster has never never failed? So yes, so they called NASA over >> So they called NASA over to supervise this launch and then the big boys who were supervising the small New Zealand rocket company, something was not synced up. Uh, and then they they couldn't verify that the vehicle was in orbit >> and then they actually terminated the vehicle despite it was going to make make perfect orbit. So, um, >> yeah, that was sad. It had like a minute or something left on the burn. Yeah, I mean the that's the job of the flight safety director. They just, you know, if the ground station doesn't pick it up, they just blow it up. But it was it was just like I think it was a frequency issue like like the ground station like >> they had like it was perfectly cable to track the rocket but somebody put something in wrong or did or track something wrong >> but >> yeah it was something was not Yeah.

[00:25:41]Yeah. Yeah. It was sad and they would have been like the first one to like make it make it on orbit on first try.

[00:25:48]>> So um >> but I I give it to them. I give it to them.

[00:25:52]>> They never had a Go ahead.

[00:25:55]>> No, I just said I I give it to them.

[00:25:56]Like in my head they didn't make it to orbit on this first try.

[00:26:02]>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean tech. Yeah. I mean they would have if they if that if that hadn't hadn't been the issue. I mean it looked like it would have. We don't know what happened the last minute burn but at that point it was perfectly fine. So what they were asking is is it true that boosters never failed. So we've never had a first stage failure on Electron.

[00:26:17]Every failure has been second stage related.

[00:26:22]>> True. Never thought of it that way but Yeah.

[00:26:24]>> Yeah. So, we've never had a first, you know, nothing's blown up on the pad. I mean, we even had like at like that case flight like whatever in in December, the one that like got to t minus zero and then had to stop. So, like the engines fired and stopped and we still launched that payload. I don't know that it was the same rocket. I assume it was. But yeah, the yeah, Electron is well engineered and like I'm so excited because that level of um I don't know, precision beauty. Rock Lab Magic is going into Neutron, too. So yeah, I mean it might it might not, you know, I don't it's it's not going to set like a speed record for the most launches of its first year of flight, but like who cares when like, you know, if we never have an explosion like what just happened? I don't care if it's slow if it's slower to start, but the time it's, you know, five years in, it's doing what Electron's doing. Perfect.

[00:27:14]>> Yeah.

[00:27:15]>> So, I I actually think people don't think about how much damage that does to your like because because you have like the damage of waiting and then you have the damage of blowing up on the on the pad. And for example, like if you look at um Firefly, they they have had a lot of failures with their vehicle. I think that they're on launch six or seven and and their success rate is like 50% or something on the rocket and when when you get to launch six and you have a 50% failure late like I believe that you can't price low enough so that the risk because like let's say that you know like Rocket Lab would take your payload at $8 million.

[00:27:57]you your price would have to be like $3 million so that you can promise the customer that you can like launch them twice because you're almost guaranteed to I mean it's like a coin flip if you're going to lose the right and and I mean like look at New Glenn like now this this we're we're segueing into this so I'm just going to show on the screen what we have all uh but like like you look at this new Glenn so they had the first successful flight. Then they had the second quote unquote successful flight where the payload, which is actually why you do the flight in the first place, didn't go into the correct orbit, but the booster landed uh which was Yeah. So, it's a bit backwards for me.

[00:28:43]>> Okay.

[00:28:44]>> So, that you're saying that the uh I was thinking that remember the dummy payload they set up was their first flight. I was thinking that was their first successful flight because it it got to orbit, right? The first one they did.

[00:28:55]That was a successful flight, but it was not not the customer payload, right? And then >> Yeah. Then ours ours was the escapade was their only successful payload delivery.

[00:29:05]>> Exactly. And then they had as they where they like landed the booster, but the the satellites got into a lower orbit than >> Yeah.

[00:29:17]the second the second relight like what we do with um with the kickstage when we circularize the burn the second their second relight didn't happen or something happened during that.

[00:29:26]>> Yeah. No. Yeah.

[00:29:27]>> And then like and then now you had this and so now all the customers are scrambling because ASDS needs to get their satellites up and you know NASA has ordered things from Blue Origin, Amazon needs to get their satellites up and for me it's like you know people are talking about like aren't we worried about neutron demand and I'm like >> guys there is like people who are like who would be willing to pay like tens of millions of dollars if you could just get their [ __ ] into orbit. Uh, and it's not happening like like you know this mass orbit is still not even a solved problem. It's not even like where is the demand, the supply, it's like currently it's not yet a fully solved problem.

[00:30:10]>> No. And the demand was like and and because people were predicting like this coming on market like it was already like getting like built into the demand curve. So like now that that's you know gone or it I mean I could not imagine them flying a new plan again any sooner than six months if they like had absolutely everything like laid out and perfectly could do it all with zero like red tape. I I I don't know probably probably more like a year but like six months I I I would be absolutely floored if they could do it faster than that. So it pushes everything everything that they were supposed to fly. I mean, the only like maybe it's not as bad as it looks thing is that they can build up their boosters and second stages on the side right now. Um, you know, assuming that this if they can, you know, they that they're confident in the in the cause of this because >> so then they can basically like their cadence could go faster once the pads back up. That would be like the only kind of like saving grace of this that I could think of. Yeah, it it it's it's exactly and as also Curtis is writing uh I also read somewhere that the problem is not the boosters. The problem is that this was the only pad that could fly New Glenn and uh when SpaceX had the anomaly with the the Facebook satellite uh on Falcon 9, they were back to launching in 6 months, but it was like an like they had another pad and the pad where the rocket blew up, I think it was like one year and three months to actually like fix the pad.

[00:31:40]>> Um >> yeah, maybe it was a long time. I remember I remember seeing this like 2012 2013. It was a long time ago, but I remember it exploding. Yeah.

[00:31:50]>> Yeah.

[00:31:51]>> The ULA sniper thing, right? Yeah. Um but yeah, I mean the only thing only bet the only thing I can think of maybe would be different now is that um is that commercial space is like more integrated in KSC and stuff like that.

[00:32:04]And so maybe you get a around a little bit faster with I I like and NASA needs this to happen too. So there I think there might be a bit more like supportive side from the government piece because you got to remember 2012 SpaceX was not like the dominant like thing it is now. So they you know I don't know my in my mind I'm like thinking like you know I see comments from Jared Isaacman and stuff like that saying like you know they're going to support and get it done. So I think that we could I think they could beat the one one and a half years or one year three months that they had before but for the past >> Yeah. Yeah. That six months for me sounds like very uh >> Yeah. At a minimum. At minimum.

[00:32:42]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:32:43]>> Probably longer, but >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:32:47]Okay. I >> Yeah. Somebody just >> that comment on MTO is Yeah. Sorry, they just said it.

[00:32:53]>> Go ahead.

[00:32:54]>> Oh, somebody just commented about the MTO thing. Um Yeah. Or before that, somebody else said it. Yeah. I also think that that I was saying that the other day. I was like, I think that that's gonna this is going to help our because they have like Blue Origin. I already thought after Blue Origin got it the Two Moon things. I was like, "Oh, we're for sure getting the MTO now and Blue Origin won't be able won't won't have to sue us because they're unhappy about it." So, I mean, I think it's down to us and Loheed Martin now. Um, especially because Blue Origin hands are going to be full. Like, they have too much stuff to do. So, >> yeah.

[00:33:23]Yeah. I I agree. Also, I mean, as bad as it is to say, like I think that this this uh blow up is in a way bullish for Rocket Lab because it Yeah. like in in many ways like it one it emphasizes like because you know like SpaceX and Rocket Lab like they they make it look easy you know >> and and sir Peter Beck even says that yeah like sending up the first rocket is not the it's not the difficult part it's reaching cadence and you see like Blue Origin had successful launches that's not the issue now now they're like trying to get the cadence up and then these things are happening um so yeah So, so uh and then yeah the second way is also what uh that probably a lot of payload gets delayed and people are going to look for other alternatives and um >> yes I I I think I know Rocket Lab's stock price was hit by this on on Friday and and uh >> just a tiny bit though.

[00:34:22]>> Yeah, may maybe it was going to be hit anyways. I I was like in the the last two weeks like every day it was green. I was like, I can't believe we're like having another green day. Um, so, so maybe we would have been hit anyways, but I do think that this is this is bullish for Rocket Lab.

[00:34:39]>> Yeah, I mean, it's definitely doesn't hurt. I I I get I mean I I don't want anything in the industry like right now the whole the whole industry is still nent in my mind. So, I I don't think I think demand was bigger than what Blue Origin was going to even if that nothing happened. I think I still think launch demand's bigger than that. So I think that this hurts space sector overall. But yeah, Rocket Lab is not is going is going to be could turn this into an advantage or be less hurt than than anybody was depending on that that company for a ride. So like A that's why A got hit so hard because um publicly a lot of their rides were were scheduled there. they have other options and and yeah, it's not won't be it's not like they're unaffected, but it's I don't think it was as bad as everybody was first coming out the woodworks and saying, >> "Do you know why ASDs I never understood this like why they're just not flying on the Falcon 9? Is it like a a principle thing that they they don't want the competitor to fly them or?"

[00:35:35]>> No, no, it's just it's it's a cost thing. So, um they can only in reusable mode for Falcon 9, they only can send three up, three bluebirds up on it because they're 4.5 tons each. um or the new ones are. So at in expendable mode if the fairing fits it you could get four but um but then you know at 70 what 71 million 75 million a launch or something. Now it's nearly 25 million just to launch the satellite. Now you stick it on Blue Origin at 8% per launch and that's only like a what was it 80 or 90 million launch or something like that. Um then you know the math works it's way better. It's only like comes down to like 10 million per sat per launch. So it's just an economics thing is why they were because they knew Blue Origin was going to this this direction and they were just going to be able to launch more on them. They didn't they they're launch agnostic in the sense that you know they've already launched on ISRO. They're looking at Vulcan.

[00:36:21]They're looking at em um the Japanese uh MPC heavy industries um the H5 or whatever it's called. Uh they're looking at that one. And then they are also um you know about flying a Falcon 9. that's what they're flying on in a few weeks from now in the next I think they already had they already had four or five for sure booked with them and then I think they have options to get up to higher. So um you know then we'll just end up booking more Falcon 9 till till they get other launchers. But it wasn't it was just purely economics. Blue Origin was the was the best best option.

[00:36:52]>> But but it's so funny when you say like on the economics because there's the factor of the price and then there's the factor of the time because how much money are they losing with the bluebirds like sitting in their warehouse?

[00:37:04]Um, yeah, but it it it's it's interesting.

[00:37:07]>> I mean, it's a risk, but hence hence the reason why they didn't say like, "Oh, we're only buying from Blue Origin launches." So, they're, you know, that's why they're that's why they already had Falcon 9 launches. The Falcon 9 launched their first set of Bluebirds up as well.

[00:37:18]So, yeah, we'll see. I mean, yeah. So, yeah. I mean, it sucks for the industry, but yes, I I think that this at least at least makes the idea that I don't know. I mean, I think it it just it doesn't it doesn't hurt us. Let's put it that way.

[00:37:37]>> Yeah. Yeah. Completely agree. Uh this was all the news that I had this week.

[00:37:42]It wasn't like a very uh um big news week, so to say. I know that there was some insider share sales. Uh I don't know if you have that or want to show it. I like to me they're Yeah, I I I don't consider them as relevant because I mean the insiders have been offloading shares like since I don't know the tens and uh we're we're at 150 or 40 or wherever we are. Um, and I I do think that, you know, when you have been 20 years with a company, you do deserve to like reap the benefits.

[00:38:21]>> Yeah. I mean, there was a bunch of them on there, but a lot of them as like the normal like um selling to cover for RS the RSUs they got. So, they don't like they're selling every share they got.

[00:38:30]The only one that was really interesting was that the um I told you like before we started was that um at the same time that Peter dropped his salary down and and and gave up all of his RSUs. He uh the his trust was was uh put in put in the 100 was it 105 10B53 or whatever the the sale plan. So they were sell that was in March and they announced that they were going to sell another 5 million shares there from from their trust and then that that this week got converted from the um preferred shares to commons so that they could start selling that and I think it has to be sold by July 4th or 5th or something like that. So that was the only that was only like big one that moved this week.

[00:39:08]Everything there was nothing else that was really over I don't know I don't think there was anything that was over like a 100,000 shares at the most.

[00:39:17]Um, but yeah, there's a lot there was a lot of activity on that this week. That was I think that was the only other news piece too that I can remember for sure.

[00:39:26]Just scrolling real quick. Sorry.

[00:39:29]>> No problem. And also, if the audience has any questions, they can like put it in the chat for us. And uh >> oh the the um there was a lawsuit that was dropped um over the uh over the la over the launch dur um delay the launch delay some investor lawsuit thing that was dropped.

[00:39:51]>> Um I mean I wasn't really worried about it but that was also gone. What else?

[00:39:56]Who the heck would buy Rocket Lab stock and then the stock goes up like 30x and then sue management that they were not transparent about I mean give me a freaking break.

[00:40:08]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:40:11]I guess the uh the sentiment shifted fast enough in the right direction like oh yeah we don't have to sue them now.

[00:40:17]Um there was the there was a bit of detail from the uh there was one thing on LinkedIn saying uh about related to that contract we talked about last weekend for the Hyundai things. He just said that they u uh with low power low size weight and power the optical Heimdale payloads are manufactured in Tucson. And then says the space domain awareness satellites will provide pathf finding capabilities in geo to the US um and US space force is laying the groundwork for future architecture. So I don't know just another update saying like confirming that that was the right payload which we assumed was sorry. Um the only other the only other thing that that like there was the small sat Europe think conference that happened last weekend and I know Minarc was was some people from Monarch were presenting there but I didn't I hadn't seen any other like news out of it yet.

[00:41:11]>> Yeah.

[00:41:11]>> But like I told you I hadn't looked today. So >> yeah. But by the way did did I just want to answer Curtis real quick. So have you harvested any honey yet? And how did the Vara treatment go? So the vara treatment went good with the bees. I I suppose uh and uh I'm going to harvest honey next weekend because we have a lot of rape seed uh flowers and that crystallizes in the frames if I don't take it out. So, it's going to be my first honey harvest next week. Pretty cool. And uh yeah, and then somebody's asking is is there anywhere is there somewhere that Vince discusses other companies? Uh you can find me on Twitter. Uh but the last I don't know how many years I've been very focused on only Rocket Lab. Before I was like Palanteer and Rocket Lab and maybe Tesla. Uh and I'm planning to go into other companies but I'm not like yeah you will see on Twitter when it comes and possibly on YouTube also. I feel like that was when you when you had done that like you know you had that one guy on that helped you with like some option stuff and it was one of your membersonly videos whenever that video came out because I kept seeing it like advertised on your page. That was about the time when I first started watching you guys on YouTube. I think it was around that time.

[00:42:30]>> Oh wow.

[00:42:30]>> I think it was in that range because I because I started on Reddit and I hadn't like caught on to you guys before that.

[00:42:36]But >> um somebody's asking about Aquatus. Do you mind if I cover the bit of news from that because they're their earnings this week? Yeah. So, the headline too long didn't read. We don't they didn't reveal anything yet.

[00:42:49]>> They um they but they did say um during the Q&A that they're going to have an investor day investor day with Space 42 specifically about um Equatus. I don't know that not don't quote me on the with Space 42 part, but they're going to have an investor day in the in the relatively near term quotes on Equatus. So, we'll find out then. Um, you know, they mentioned that people like analysts were on it. They asked about the launching.

[00:43:11]They asked him who's the bus provider and stuff like that. And they and they didn't quite get it out there like he was being the CEO is being KG for sure on the details. Um, but they did talk about like, you know, they're planning on launching. They're planning on having Sat go up in 2029 and so like or having the service starting up by then. So, I don't know. It nothing they said makes me feel any less that it's less likely that Rock Lab is getting it. And if anything, I'm like 5% more likely that this is Rock Lab. At least they're they're talking to um I still think MDA is is probably either either they're talking to to MDA still or as a potential another like as having a a third or I guess a fourth person in it.

[00:43:52]Um and that might come into play for like EU stuff. Um if because it's Canada and maybe they get I don't know. There's some other stuff there too. So basically we don't know yet. That's the That's the the gist of it. Um, but we'll know more soon.

[00:44:07]>> I I saw this quote also that you you sent in our uh chat and uh cuz I was really hoping that they're going to do like a partnership with with Rocket Lab.

[00:44:17]And then I kind of feel that the partnership is still likely, but not in the way that I thought. Um, let me see if I can I can share the quote from the If I even find it, we we're speak.

[00:44:38]>> Yeah, right there. And then that was saying soon. That was probably looking at >> so this one. So, so, so that is one set of partners that we are looking for. We're also looking to make sure that the infrastructure that we're building, think of space infrastructure as cost effective as can be. So uh Vice is really providing the lead on network payload technology. Most of you all know uh of the networking beam forming those things. We are open to partners for other parts of the infrastructure value chain that could in include launch buses. That's what we think Rocket Lab can provide uh with flatalite and uh those are probably two of the primary ones. It could also include potential lowcost manufacturers and manufacturers who are associated with given geographic regions and would be preferred by certain regional spectrum holders of service providers.

[00:45:32]Uh those are the flavors.

[00:45:35]>> Yeah. So that piece right there they talk about with the spectrum. So the EU just released they have like their MSS spectrum which is the globally harmonized stuff. Um that's the same band all the way around the world. Uh but they have uh their Echoar had it u biosat and I don't know probably some other like European people but basically there's like uh reauthorizations coming up like next year and to get into the to get reauthorized on the MSS spectrum the EU is like taking like a third of it and putting it aside for like their IRS pro the ears squared program like their their um military thing that's that's supposed to be for government and then they have like a third for domestic I think I want to say it was like domestic domestic startups or something like but another third for like domestic stuff you have to you have to building it inside the one of the member states and then there's like a third that could be other other um you know like a like a like a Starlink or a or a if they're if they're not doing their JV thing. So what what I'm getting at is that maybe they're looking for equatus that that if the satellites or pieces of it need to be built in one of these member states that that's why that's the only reason I was like well there's still a chance that that that this might not be us or that if it is us maybe we're going to set up the assembly line in Mayaric or something like that. I don't know.

[00:46:47]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I was more thinking that they're so casually speak like I thought that they're looking for like one big partner that is like uh you know, like comes into the JV and can launch and build the buses and everything. And now it like when I read that it sounds like they're they're looking for like 10 different partners and each partner is going to be like a little piece of the pie. So, it's it's for sure not as big of a thing as I thought that it it would be, but >> Yeah. Okay. I know what you're talking about now, too. Yeah. And I I I did also got that impression that it seems like they're they're trying to like create a like a platform that other people can either bring like spectrum rights if they're like some island or something like that. They can bring spectrum in or they maybe they bring some sort of component level like technology in or like you know they just have the data and they're an M partner and they and they're small and regional and they want to bring them themselves in or something like that. Yeah, I I also got that impression. It's not so Yeah, which which to me is better. I would rather us not getting married to this. I'd rather us be from Rocket Lab's perspective. I'd rather us, you know, you want to pay us to to build and and launch this stuff. Absolutely. Um, you know, maybe we get some equity in in in the venture as well, but I get nervous when we wouldn't have control of how to do it and then we have to rely on some other groups. So, if we did put equity in, I I would hope it would be a small amount. So, >> awesome. Cool. Uh, >> yeah. Yeah, that's all I had off of my head. So, >> yeah, I think this is a good point to end the show. It was not a big news week. Uh I think I think it was still awesome. Uh I I see Matt money is lurking around here.

[00:48:22]>> I saw Did you see that one up there?

[00:48:25]>> Yeah.

[00:48:25]>> I was like Matt, you first.

[00:48:27]>> I was like I think I dropped Andy. I dropped plenty of money and never saw and never saw no nipples. So you first Matt.

[00:48:36]>> Cool. All right. Uh yeah. So thank you everyone for being here. Thank you Jacob for being here. May your sky stays blue and your stock stay green. And uh we'll see you guys next week. All right. Cha chia.

[00:48:49]>> Ciao.