RENDER BREAKOUT OR FAKEOUT? (RENDER Price Prediction)

Ajouté : 2026-05-28

[00:00:03]Good morning, everybody. Welcome back to Selenex Crypto. Hope you're all doing great and welcome to this new video right here on a render. This was very very requested and it was also a coin I was looking at a lot. Uh so I wanted to do a full update on on the current situation. Current situation in terms of structure is also very interesting and in this video I kind of wanted to focus on like the flows. There's not much that we can see there or at least I will show you what the what the order flow and in general what the um the flows look like on on render. Um but I think it's more important on render right now to focus on the fundamentals and structure. Um because structurally at the moment we're trading below the yearly rolling VWAP, which is potentially the most important resistance level or rolling resistance level at least um that we have in general.

[00:00:53]But then on the other hand, we have been able to break above a significant structural level right here with the previous quarter value area high and the previous year value area low, I believe at 2.18. So major bullish breakout, strong resistance above that. Can we hold the breakout? If yes, then we can start targeting the previous high right here at 2.65 and 2.7. Um but who knows, right? I mean then basically the structure is bullish because then you have this consolidation here, breakout, consolidation here, breakout, maybe a consolidation here, but then ultimately this becomes a multi-month uptrend and who knows what can happen afterwards.

[00:01:31]Um especially given the fact that fundamentally render is sitting in the middle of or at least a lot of the momentum of the narrative and a lot of the momentum of the category AI is going towards render. And that's also fundamentally like fundamentally I'm a little bit um I'm I'm a little bit on the fence for render because fundamentally the AI narrative right now in crypto is very strong, right? You get a lot of hype, a lot of attention going towards that. You see a lot of theories about AI in crypto potentially being, you know, undervalued. And that is I I think to a certain extent that's true. And that's also why we are seeing a lot of this momentum, and this is real momentum.

[00:02:09]However, and this might not be something that you're interested in. If you're watching a Render video, you might like Render a lot, and I think the the the product has potential. But when we're talking about the actual statistics of Render, it's [snorts] just not huge, right? I mean, the total Render supply that has been burned so far is worth about $3 million in market cap. Render [snorts] has a market cap right now of fully diluted of 1.4, market cap of 1.15. And this is over a long period of time, right? I mean, that's that's not a lot that's being burned with their burn month burn mint equilibrium. And if you see how much they're still uh putting out in emissions versus the burns, there's also still major token supply inflation. And if you're looking at the USDC revenue that they're making, I mean, they're making decent revenue, but they're making like over a million dollars a year, but but not much much more, like several million dollars a year. Like does that really justify a valuation of 1.15 billion? Like maybe AI is undervalued in crypto, but certain projects are certainly doing more and making more money than Render is.

[00:03:16]Right? So so therefore, fundamentally I'm on the fence. And in terms of structure, okay, at the moment I would say it's most likely in terms of the structure, and then the fundamentals, especially when we're looking at the entire category, I would say, okay, it's most likely this is a real breakout, and that we are going to get a continuation into into the upside.

[00:03:34]I would say this is most likely in terms of structure and fundamentals. Would I trade this? Would I buy Render right here? No. I'd wait [snorts] for confirmation, right? Because on the lower time frames, what you can see is that we have rejected at the yearly rolling VWAP, right? So so we were not able to break above that. That tells you something as well. So now what what I what I would need to see for me to really get bullish about render, like I already think if if we're if we're talking about the confluences, right? I mean, the flows at the moment do not tell us that much. Render is not over shorted. We've had a lot of leverage coming in. Um but it's not over shorted, not over longed, right? So, so okay, a lot of leverage that will make it more volatile, but not necessarily bullish or bearish in terms of volatili- volatility. So, it's the fundamentals and the structure. The structure is bullish. It just objectively is. The fundamentals for AI are as well. And whether you think Render is undervalued or not, that's ultimately that's subjective, right? And I'm not going to base my analysis on some something subjective. So, I would say it's most likely after the massive breakout we've had, it is most likely we are going to be able to hold that and get a move into the upside. But I will personally only trade that, and I only think that's that's really valid if we get a confirmation. And a confirmation would be um either holding that level at 2.18 for a longer period of time or getting some sort of a flush below that and then reclaiming that, right? That would be a sign that market participants, buyers and sellers, really think this is a real breakout and that we can get a move up higher. And then we'll get that. But that's the only time I will think about buying Render, because if we're unable to do this, like if we flush down into 2.1, which is a strong support level, and we're un- unable to reclaim 2.18, then all of a sudden the structure is no longer bullish, and then the fundamentals also do not like look that appetizing. You're not going to rally only based on fundamentals. You need the technicals to line up.

[00:05:20]So, those are my thoughts. Hopefully it makes some sense. Technically, I think it's most likely we'll rally rally up higher, but I'm keeping my hands off Render right now because of that fundamental part.

[00:05:30]Those are my thoughts. Thank you for watching, everybody. Take care and bye.