NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks, Player Props | Analysis & Predictions FREE Today Thursday April 30th

Added: 2026-04-30

[00:00:00]Hey everyone, it's fun around. My name is Jordan. We have three game sixes for Thursday. Should be an awesome day.

[00:00:06]Hopefully, we have some fireworks with this one.

[00:00:13]So, you will see images that come up on the screen. That'll be from a data app called Outlier. There'll be a link in the description for a 7-day free trial for Outlier. And this first game is the Knicks versus the Hawks. Tell me if you haven't heard that five other times in the past week and a half. Uh, so Josh Hart is questionable. Uh the Hawks have no new injuries. Uh once again, the Hawks went up 2-1. Uh the two wins that they had were by one point. Some fourth quarter comeback. Uh another one where they it was really close down to the end and the the Knicks kind of blew it. So, uh the Knicks were really just a couple of shots away from sweeping this. Uh but after going down 2-1, they made the proper adjustments and they have really blown out the Hawks the last two games.

[00:00:52]And the Hawks just have really struggled here. So, they're going to be back in Atlanta. They need to make some adjustments clearly if they want to force a game seven. Um, but a big part of the blowouts and a prop that I like is going to be Carl Anthony Towns uh in his passing over three and a half assists. So, this this is what the line was last game and uh I was, you know, thinking about putting it in the video, but uh he went over in two out of the first three games and then all of a sudden they make the adjustment to run the offense through him and he gets 10 assist and then six assist in both of the blowouts. And uh this line hasn't moved. So he's gone over in four out of five games. And I expect the Knicks to do the same thing. Why would you stop going through Carl Anthony Towns? So you're going to give him the ball and he's going to find shooters. And if you don't, you know, stop him, then he's going to go and he's going to try to score. Uh so you have to pick your poison with that offense and it's been working for the Knicks. So I like Carl Anthony Towns. And then an honorable mention, someone in the comments section uh reminded me of a play um that we kind of, you know, fed off of uh throughout the regular season and uh I had been looking at it, but I I didn't throw it out there because I know some people uh first quarter props uh they they hate it. I would highly suggest don't put a first quarter prop in your full game parlays if you are not for a your prop busting in the uh you know the first quarter of the first game. So, uh, it's Mitchell Robinson over one and a half first quarter rebounds. He's is back there. He's getting about three or four minutes in that first quarter. And in these playoffs, he's got a minimum of three rebounds in every single game in the first quarter. And he has also gone over this in 100% of games versus the Hawks this year. Um, so absolutely crushing it on the boards in just that short amount of time. And the Hawks have been a great rebounding matchup all year long. So for Lean here, I think the Knicks close it out. Uh, they they seem to have figured something out. two losses were just by one point and it was it was really just them making mistakes near the end. So all it took was them cleaning that up as a veteran squad and I think they they get this win here and cover the two and a half points. So I like the Knicks on that. And then before I get into these next two games, if you guys could please like the video if you haven't, please subscribe to the channel. If you have a little bit of extra time, could leave a comment for the algorithm. Put a uh J there. That helps get this video out there for more people to see. And I want to shout out the app Parlay Play. So, Parlay Play, um, if you have not heard of them, they're like prize picks, um, but better. They're giving $5 free if you sign up and they're giving a match up to $100. So, check out where they're available. Available in all these states in the United States, available in all these places in Canada. Uh, promo codes find around 11. I'm going to have a link in the uh, pin comment if you would like to go there. I also want to mention my membership. So, when I do these videos, I have extra plays. uh if you decide to support me, there's a join button on the video and in return I will give you the plays that did not make the video and sometimes those do better than uh the the video plays. Um I don't want to be that guy that's like yo the member plays um yeah whatever. All right, so the next game is the Celtics vers.

[00:04:00]Uh the Celtics are six and a half point favorites. Uh neither team has any new injuries. Embiid is probable. Uh so initially I thought the series was over.

[00:04:08]As soon as Embiid came back um he came back slow. Uh the he was not up to playoff speed. The Celtics knocked down all their shots and and it was over. It was a blowout in Philadelphia. So uh he comes back in Boston and uh he's up to speed and the Sixers surprise. Um, but the Celtics really, they're just do or die by the three. And I honestly don't expect them to do that two games in a row where they're just missing everything. And and when Brown's missing his shots, Tatum's missing, Derek White's not involved, they start to look like they don't have much depth around them. Uh, like, uh, Pton Pritchard's a good guy off the bench, but you start looking at their other players, you're like, Hower is a bench player. Uh, Quinta is, you know, he'd be a bench player on a lot of teams. So, yeah. So, you start to see you their their depth issues that they have with all the the money they got rid of over the off seasonason. But, I think they have a good game. And a prop that I like is gonna be Payton Pritchard over three and a half assists. Another one that I was thinking about going with last game and instead I went Paul George under rebounds because it had a 100% hit rate and Peyton Pritchard was three out of four. Uh, but now Paul George under rebounds does not have under a 100% hit rate. So Richard in this series has had six assists, five, he had a two in there, and that's what threw me off. And then he had a five and and a six. So when he goes over, he has not just gone over with four in any of the games that he has gone over. Uh so I expect the Celtics to adjust, knock down their shots here, and close this out as a veteran team. Um and him to be a part of that. So even when they were shooting poorly la in the last game, he went over in the first half and had six assists.

[00:05:47]So, I like him for assist. And for a lean, um, like I mentioned, I don't think the Celtics, uh, uh, you know, go cold two games in a row. I think Tatum and Brown get their their, uh, their act together and, uh, they they get this win on the road and they cover. This last one, uh, the series has been absolute cinema. Uh, it would be even more if, uh, Anthony Edwards was still playing and Dante Devincenzo, but it's a Nuggets versus Timber Wolves. Nuggets are five and a half point favorites. Payton Watson is still out. Aaron Gordon's questionable. He's really struggling with his calf injury. Uh so even when he plays, it's limited. Uh so they could really use him, but uh I I wouldn't be shocked if he's sad again. Um and the Timberwolves obviously they lost Dante Deanchenzo for the season. Anthony Edwards out for multiple weeks, so that could be their season now. And now Bones Highland is questionable and he's been a guy off the bench who has really stepped up and knocked down some big shots. So, uh, they're really really suffering here. Even Nas Reed went down in the last game, but he ended up coming back and playing, but, um, you know, it just it just looks like the injury bugs hitting them. So, um, after going down 3-1, the Nuggets really stepped up in Denver and they knocked down a bunch of shots and, uh, you know, with the they they just smelled blood in the water with all these injuries and, uh, they needed that game. They absolutely needed that game. So, um, a player that I like here at home in Minnesota is I Dumu. I like him over 18 and a half points. So, um, he is really taking off. Uh, even before the injuries, uh, he had a huge game. So, if Bones Island sits too, he's going to get even more minutes. He could almost play the entire game really. Um, but he's already going to get a ton of minutes. So, he didn't do much in the first couple games, but then he goes to Minnesota and he gets 25 and 43 in front of the home crowd. And the last game he got 18, but it was a blowout, so he didn't play too much near the end.

[00:07:42]Easily could have gone o over with a shot near the end. So, um, he's at home again. I like him to step up and be one of the primary scores for the Timberwolves. With that, I want to mention my parlay play slip for almost 5x. I'm going with Towns on his assist.

[00:08:00]I'm going to throw in Jason Tatum on his rebounds assist, but I'm bumping it down a little bit to make it a little bit safer. But I do think playoff Tatum does show up um like he did in the the previous game. He got a ton of rebounds.

[00:08:13]It's like, okay, now you can close the team out, so now you're gonna rebound a bunch. Um so I expect him to do the same um again. So I'm bumping that down. I like Pritchard for his assist. And then Dumu on his points for almost 5x on parlay play. If you'd like to tell me, once again, link is in the pin comment.

[00:08:30]For a lean on this one, obviously the Nuggets caught a break. I think the Timberwolves go into this one thinking this this is it for us. I I know they have two games to win one, but uh you don't want to go back to Denver. You don't want to go back there where you know they feed off the home crowd.

[00:08:48]That's their really great team at home.

[00:08:50]You don't want to go back there. I think this is their opportunity to close out this series. their best opportunity to close out this series because if the Nuggets tie this with all the momentum into a game seven, I I think it's over uh for the Timberwolves. So, with five and a half points, I'm actually going to lean the Timberwolves here to either win or cover in a really close game with all of the injuries and everything. I got them to feed off the crowd and have a really great game here uh verse the Nuggets. That's three games. If you guys would like to discuss lines further, I have a Discord link is in the description that is completely free.

[00:09:28]Talk about NBA, talk about baseball, talk about life. Talk about life. Um, and as far as a recap goes uh of the last video, it's halftime for the Lakers, but I already saw one of them hits. So, um, Donovan Mitchell over 25 and a half points. Um, he played about 30 minutes. He didn't play that much.

[00:09:50]Um, and he was cold again. Uh, I was a little bit surprised. Um, but Dennis Shruder stepped up and scored a bunch of points and later in the game, Kenny Atinson was just like, I'm gonna leave Shruder out there. I'm gonna leave Donovan Mitchell on the bench. And the Cavs went on a huge run and went up by uh 11 and um just because Donovan Mitchell was sitting. Uh so good call by Kenny Atinson, you know, by leaving your star player on the bench. As soon as he brought him back in, the Raptors started to make a a run. But um uh yeah, that was uh that was rough to watch. Uh I thought Donovan Mitchell was that guy at home. Um he had been that guy all season, but uh not not right now. Um and then had Colin Murray Boils over 11 and a half points and Yaka Purle finally showed up and knocked his minutes down a little bit. He still had good minutes.

[00:10:40]Um and he did score a little bit near the end there. Um but uh he uh he was not as aggressive as he had been all season long. The Cavaliers had a a big on him at all times. Um he was playing what they call the short corner. Um basically just kind of uh hiding, you know, about five to eight feet away from the basket on the side uh near the uh the inline and the Cavs made sure they had a guy there and every time he caught the ball, he just looked to pass it. So, um, not the aggressive Colin Murray Boils, um, that we were accustomed to seeing. So, that sucked there for the Cavaliers game, but then, uh, I had Austin Reeves over three and a half assists. He got that in the first half, first quarterish, you know, his first run. Um, and I don't know how many assists he's got right now, but, uh, that line was just way too low for Austin Reeves. I don't care how many minutes he's playing. If he's playing 10 or more, he's probably going to get over three and a half assist um, in a playoff game. So, uh, my joke play was Bronny James over one and a half points. I think Austin Reeves is taking his minutes. Looks like he probably will not enter the game. So, get this one edited and get it out to you all. God bless you. It's final round. My name is Jordan. I will catch you on the next one. Bye.