The video misuses institutional concepts like "flow fragility" to provide a veneer of intellectual rigor to what is essentially sensationalist clickbait. It fails to offer genuine structural analysis, relying instead on buzzwords to manipulate retail sentiment.
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Ripple XRP: Citadel's 'FLOW FRAGILITY' Note Proved Everyone Already Bought! (INSANE CRYPTO NEWS)Added:
On May 18th, Citadel Securities, one of the biggest market makers on the planet, which gained notoriety after the GME or GameStop pump in 2021 and its subsequent crash, published an internal note they called flow fragility. And inside of it, they buried a single line that should stop anyone from chasing these new highs cold. and their own model now shows that the moment this market drops even 1%.
The selling out of the big systemic funds blows right past any buying left that would catch it or better yet create a support. In plain English, everyone who was going to buy has already bought.
And the machine that pushed this market up, the mechanical buying out of the banks and brokers turns into the machine that drives it straight back down the very second that the trend breaks.
What's even more shocking is that only about 5% of retail is even behind this rally. The rest is the biggest money on Wall Street, leveraged and hedged to the teeth, and 73% of those fund managers are now crowded into the exact same trade. Global semiconductors up about 24% in April. And Warren Buffett is sitting on a record pile of cash, selling $15 of stock for every $1 he buys, while his own bubble gauge just hit a fresh all-time high. And the bond market just printed yields in Japan that we haven't seen since the8s. This has carried over into the US market with bond yields across the board rallying which could create a very negative impact in the stock market as more of those profits are rotated into safer bets like yields in government bonds and treasuries. So today I'm going to show you exactly where this breaks and what it does to your crypto when it happens.
You'll get the S&P level that flips every long in this market into a forced seller. my real Bitcoin projection and targets if stocks roll over and why 44,000 is more realistic than most people want to admit. We'll map the exact liquidation zones where Bitcoin bounces and where it bleeds and how this relates to XRP. And I'll even talk you through some other major setups like Hype, Chain Link, and Injective, including a few that I wouldn't touch right now and why. So stick around with me until the back half because that's where I lay out the one read on why crypto bleeds first and the 30-day window I think turns into a day trader dream and a headline machine. So let's run it. It's been an unreasonably strong May. You know, relative to I would say May's in general. Uh May tends to be a weaker month if not a month where markets sell off into the summer. Um, but it looks like that's now likely going to be the case into June. Where did we see this? I don't know. I've got so much information that we could get lost. Um, but let's just cover kind of what um the market has looked like as of recently. Here we are. Um, in in this case, the crowd in the stock market sector, right? Especially chasing those rallies and highs with chips and arguably probably not even just chasing.
It's a combination of multiple factors uh including you know just um mechanical or programmatic buying from uh brokers or banks who are selling these positions. Uh and when when I looked at the data and did digging um only about 5% of retail is actually behind this stuff which means it's the majority of of players with all of the money um who have been hedging and using leverage and derivatives in order to really profit.
Um and so it's kind of insane what's occurred um when you look at the numbers, right? The record bullish uh positioning uh was in a situation where 73% of fund managers uh were long global semiconductors, which is the single most crowded trade on Wall Street, up from 24% in April. Uh, and to put this in perspective, uh, gold, uh, when we're talking about how hard gold rallied, um, was at an average of 58 to 51%.
Uh, when we're talking about, uh, back in 2024 with the the insane rally behind the magnificent 7, uh, that was in the low 60%. So, uh, we're at a point now where this is pretty extreme. So much so, right, that Warren Buffett um in my opinion being a very astute student uh and practitioner of markets uh as the most successful investor of all time for a reason is sitting consistently on record piles of cash and his Buffett indicator has now hit a new all-time high uh for bubbles. That said, right, we have to remember and keep in um you know, keep this in context that markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. But right here, you know, th this this indicator has uh you know, screamed to new all-time highs uh and for as a quote unquote bubble indicator. Um one thing that's different about this market versus other markets is just the fact that we have more cash or fiat in the system than ever before, right? And so with that and with all of the wealth that these funds and institutions have created, uh they're able to do things and push markets higher for longer. uh than in previous uh situations or circumstances. That said, uh bubbles all kind of have the same characteristics, right? And eventually they do get crowded to the point where you'll have a citadel, you know, securities even sharing that the base uh the hedge base appears significantly lighter. Now, what is that hedge? Uh let's get over here to we'll read this portion right here. So uh here's the part that should make anyone chasing these highs uncomfortable. Citadel Securities published a note on May 18th called Flow Fragility. The math has flipped. Their model now shows that under a 1% decline in the market, which is crazy, for the S&P, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000, projected sell pressure from s systemic funds materially exceeds incremental buy demand from here, which means everyone has already bought. And the math at this hedge fund is stating that because this is the case, right, it's best to hedge.
your upside potential is so extremely low or minimal relative to uh uh you know what could potentially happen with a downside move. So the buying machinery is now positioned to become the selling machinery the moment the trend breaks.
Um, and so this is essentially what happened, right? These these uh back in March, all of these funds and institutions were buying insurance uh in order to protect against downside. When that downside occurred and we saw the market dump, right, from on the S&P from these highs of $7,000 down to here, they were tremendously up on those insurance policies. They covered on those, took the cash, right, and immediately bought the dip, which then caused a flurry of buy orders and obviously this gap up.
And then again, you had uh this mechanical buying from brokers and banks, which pushed the price further and further and further up. But this rally and this volatility, right, was due to all of that uh the the the insurance policies and the mechanical buying. That said, this isn't like um to me again, this is very latestage type of market price action. And what's more interesting, right, is that now for the very first time since we broke below the 200. What's really even more interesting more often than not is when you break below this 200, it's rare that you spend this little of time here, um you know, at least on a daily time frame for any sustained period of time in most markets, this is your first indicator that something's off or wrong. So, I'm just always a little bit more cautious there. But this now would look like a breakdown on the S&P and a pretty bearish pattern right here uh below that 10 EMA. We might get a little bit of a bounce at 7200. We might just, you know, fly right through there this week to 71 because of all the leverage. And now all of these, you know, longs are going to flip short. Um we could see some serious volatility and swings in this range between 7,500 down to 7,000. So I if you're not really, you know, if you don't have a stomach for volatility and you're not watching the market very caut or consistently, I should say, um, then you it's probably best you don't be trading this range right now. Um, in terms of crypto and Bitcoin and XRP and all of the others, I think it's going to be an easier market to trade now. Um, but just note that if we see some major volatility and downside on the S&P, the NASDAQ, QQQ, you name it, um, your major chip, you know, stocks, uh, then it's likely that it's going to carry over into crypto and you're going to see further downside. Uh, but that's totally fine. That's kind of what we've been calling for. Uh, and you've had plenty of time to hedge or or manage your risk better. So, that said, let's get back to this real quick. Um the market and this is again from Citadel right the market now looks significantly more crowded than it did just six weeks ago and here's to add to that pressure which to me is probably the largest indicator of what's going to happen next in the market. Um and that is the bond yields across the board. And we're seeing I think a new all-time high in Japan. I can't remember on what year or term it is um for one of their bond yields, but it is the highest since like the 80s, uh which is pretty impressive. And so there's some serious things that are are structurally wrong with dollars right now in the bond markets. And they're even noting that higher long-end yields and increasingly attractive real rates are also beginning to create competition for equities again because the majority of these major investors, right, they're like looking at, okay, well, we've made all of our money here. Um, and our upside potential based on the math is just not great. So, the better thing to do would be to sell these positions, right? And then you're going to start to see the the opposite thing happen in the market. Um, creating downside pressure.
But more than that, um, they're going to be flooding into bond yields. And so there will be demand. Maybe we'll see some level, you know, where, you know, yields are a little bit more stable. But with this super strong rally there, that means there's something significantly wrong in the market. And Warren Buffett is even stating it with consistently selling. I mean, his sell to buy ratio is 15 to1 right now. So every single new rally for new all-time highs on major stocks, he's selling because they are wildly overvalued. Um, and I'm not saying that that can't last a little bit longer. It's just the odds are now greater to the downside. Um, and then you combine that with an analysis from a gentleman by the name of Doug Casey. Um, who basically states that, uh, I'm not sure how or even if the US government can manage this situation. Something has to give and we won't know how long.
However, and I think this is probably the most important uh, phrase that I read from this analysis on the 10-year bond yield. uh the Iran war may prove to be uh another foreign policy disaster.
It could be the trigger that exposes the fragility of the entire dollar-based financial system. Now, with a statement like this, more often than not, you'd look at something like digital currencies or Bitcoin in particular as a quote unquote hedge against inflation, a hedge against, you know, the the dollar and fiat currencies and money printing being that it is truly um you know, it's it's uh what's the word I'm looking for?
Uh sometimes I'm forgetting these terms, guys. There's so many things on my head right now. Um but basically, you can't make any more of it, right? you can't print any more Bitcoin. It is 100% finite to the degree that there will only ever be 21 million. So that in and of itself, as long as the network doesn't fail, right, which is a possibility in the case of Quantum, but who really knows if they were to hack the Satoshi wallet, if they didn't improve the security, right? There's so many unknowns and variables in markets.
What I will say is the odds that this type of an environment actually proves uh that Bitcoin can actually not only withstand these types of storms. This would be the first in my opinion aside from COVID. This would be the second major storm uh that Bitcoin could weather and I think into the next bull market cycle could be uh something that you know now institutions especially with a a market structure bill if we get that signed and passed through the Senate would look at and say okay not only are digital assets right in that whole crypto market real they're also regulated so it doesn't matter who's incoming as an administration at least we have some real framework work there.
And two, Bitcoin's already weathered two of the biggest storms we've ever seen in our lifetime. So, that's going to give and provide a lot of confidence for institutions to now look at it as something that can't be debased uh worldwide or globally by any major central bank or government. Sure, you can outlaw it, but then you fall behind, right? Uh because you don't want to be the one government that isn't going to be accepting of it when the world's largest governments are, except for maybe China. Um, so that's something that I would really think about, but right now that just doesn't seem to be the case. So with all of this said, I don't think there's anything we didn't cover here. Uh, this is all pretty much the same information. This being a crowded trade, uh, yeah, I just think we we we're going to see further downside this week. And so for me, um, you know, if you're playing with a lot of capital, I think for me, uh, I just don't have enough capital. I want to invest into shorting the S&P right now versus doing what I do best, which is crypto, right, and playing in those markets. I I don't want to like spread, you know, my my uh pot too thin, if you will, across many sectors. But if you are playing with far more capital and you're more comfortable, you know, being in multiple short positions, however you want to manage that, like I think anywhere below this 10 EMA is not a bad place to be short. um the S&P and you know any other uh you know let's look at the QQQ probably the QQQ but just understand you might have to stomach some serious volatility and watch a very heavy winning position turn into you know a small you know net negative or um a break even you know within the next week like I genuinely think we're going to see some pretty nasty volatility through here up until we potentially break down on the QQQ below 60 you know 630 35 uh on the S&P again below 7, which to me is pretty that would be a pretty strong indicator that we're going to come in for new lower lows. Um and again, anything like that happening in the in the stock market carries over into crypto. I think something like this carrying over into crypto. Um you know, I think crypto probably has actual less like downside relative to how it used to look. So if for example, in the past you would see Bitcoin, let's look. Um it's really tough to say, but let's let's look at this right here. Okay, so this was an actual like bare market situation. January of 2022. I'll go ahead and pull up Bitcoin. Let's remove the EMAs just to make life really easy.
I'll put a line right here. Okay, let's go ahead and pull up a double chart and let's pull up Bitcoin. Remove two drawings right here. So, let me go ahead and do that.
And now we got, you know, I'll just take this and change it from a line to candles. And we'll go back to 2022.
I know it's probably kind of hard to see. So, this is why it's good to be on a bigger screen, ladies and gentlemen.
Um, especially when we're doing technical. Okay, so here you have the S&P putting in its all-time high. You'll notice that even in 2022, right, Bitcoin led the stock market. In other words, people in crypto markets are less adver uh less they don't want to be as they want to carry as much risk. So, they're more risk adverse. like they're looking at crypto based on its math, based on the fact that it's a higher beta asset than the stock market. And so the first thing they sell in their portfolio, if they even smell that there could be, if you're a deer and there's a tiger uh you know, a thousand uh miles away, that's the first thing that they smell. They're going to sell that first. That's just how the crypto market is right now. One day it might be different. That's not currently true. Okay, so that's the way that I'm looking at it. That's the way that the markets looked at it. And we know this because pretty consistently even in this bull market, right, the stock market continued to rally while Bitcoin was putting in new lows. Do you see this all-time high stock market, Bitcoin started breaking down? Okay, now by the actual end of the bare market on the stock market, look at this stock market bottomed out actually first. And this is where I think things might switch this time around. Okay. Uh but in this situation we had one last dump on the in the crypto market and that was due to and again this is not going to be perfectly aligned because there's different trading days 247 on crypto 5 days on the S&P you know that's how the market works. Um, one day it probably won't look like that. Probably by 2027, 2028. Uh, I think, you know, all these markets are going to be globally trading 24/7. A lot more money in it that way.
Uh, you know, and the old guys who used to love their weekends off will no longer have that as the new new kids come onto the block and are used to trading, you know, crypto. But that said, look right here, we had the final little last dump on uh, Bitcoin in November of 2022, the FTX collapse, right? kind of that final catalyst for new lows and then right we both bottomed. But here's the difference and this is kind of what I wanted to point out. Right here we had a 27% dump okay to that low uh in terms of Bitcoin okay from its actual high down to these lows we're talking 77%.
So when when we think about it in that perspective in the fact that Bitcoin has already been down about 50% from its all-time high while the S&P is putting a new all-time highs, there's never been a stronger deviation in terms of the price action.
>> But one thing I know is pretty certain when you actually look at smaller time frames when you zoom in, okay, you'll you'll notice often that they are still pretty highly correlated, right? So, for example, look at my my lines right here.
From this bottom of March 30th up until the rally highs right here, you'll notice that both Bitcoin and the S&P are trending up. Now, over the last few days, the S&P is seeing some weakness, right? And fundamentally, some things are changing. And guess what? As this thing is starting to break down very low, when you really think about it, look at the difference in terms of percentages.
>> We're talking 2% down off those highs, you know, 2.2%. Look at Bitcoin off of its high right here already 7%. So, if let's say this thing did dump for new lows, and this is something I want you to be prepared for, and this is why it's like, okay, 44,000 is very realistic for Bitcoin. If this thing were to break down, just to come back down to its prior range low, 6,300, that's a 15% dump. That I would say barebones minimum marks 25 to 30% on Bitcoin, which means 40 to 60% on your favorite altcoins.
you know, on some of these other altcoins that are less liquid. Anything under $10 billion market cap, which there's so few that are above that now, they're likely going to dump that much.
Um, unless they have a really strong support and a better base, kind of like, you know, maybe like an a chain link, a Dogecoin, like stuff that's older, right? That that really has just people that are legacy holding that thing, forgot about their tokens. Who knows?
Um, but you know, let's say this thing comes in to print a new low down to to what was my target in the last analysis?
I can't even remember. Um, we did we drew a line through I think it was like 6150 would be the breakdown level. So at 6150 you're now 20 what 19% down to 18% down. Okay. I think you know and by the way a break from there if we hit these ranges. Sure, we could see more volatility, maybe some last little pumps and rallies up to 67. This thing could last through the summer, but into the summer, right, if we're seeing greater weakness and we're now below that $7,000 range, this is major danger territory.
Uh, and to me, could easily lead us into a November, you know, sometime October, November low. The only difference being that this is the first time Bitcoin, okay, has dumped so much earlier than the stock market that there's been such a large deviation into a bare market for crypto, but a bull market for the stock market. And that's because it's all led by a few companies. So, it's just higher concentration and less trust among the majority and more institutions and, you know, hedge funds chasing the biggest plays that they know are currently changing the game. So, that's kind of where we're at right now. Now, let's look at the uh so so if this happens, let's say Bitcoin now leading the market and the S&P does dump, you know, 25 30%.
Okay, which is pretty fair in a bare market scenario. Um I think Bitcoin could easily dump. Let's go ahead and look at this now. And let's go to Bitcoin. Move those drawings log chart.
Toss that on there. Okay. Now, following the stock market in this case, what's 30, you know, 40% down? That's $49,000.
So S&P actually actually does dump 25%.
Is it possible for Bitcoin to dump 40?
The answer is yes. Um and and you know that would only be at about $49,000.
Uh in terms of actual support, we have a little bit of support here, right? We had range resistance, range support. We haven't spent a ton of time at that actual range until, you know, going all the way back to March of 2022. I'd probably be looking for greater supports. And sometimes you can use a VRVP to look at where the majority of volume is really traded. And you'll see that there's like kind of a small cliff here that we've already been being supported by, but a lot more volume in terms of actual Bitcoin traded is down here into the 44K range. Do you guys see that? So, this is all pretty consistent in alignment with the analysis that I put out in in uh the eighth and ninth edition of Market Pulse uh inside of Altcoin Pro and now the 10th edition uh looking back and seeing how things have developed since the very first edition.
Um to me, I think uh you know a 44 uh K low um is very realistic. In terms of actual low, I don't know, right? But I think in these ranges after anything under 52 um I think if the thesis uh holds true into the future, right, and as fiat currencies continue to you get weaker and weaker and weaker, right, and the US starts to lose maybe its dominance as the world reserve currency.
And right now the UAE uh left OPEC, right? Uh so the petro dollar is no longer going to be as strong, if you will. Uh so the UAE left OPEC and is now going going to uh produce 800 million barrels of oil. I can't remember uh over what period of time frame but I think now people are using these types of opportunities. If I was a different country I'd probably do the same to get away from the US and their dollar. Um while you know things are kind of you know we're at war in in you know multiple fronts. I think though I Russia and I'd have to be um I'd have to double verify this, but I've heard that Ukraine and Russia are finally getting things kind of resolved as of recently. Either way, uh things aren't looking good and I think the bond market is really our greatest signal that there's real weakness uh in the dollar. Uh and that major investors are are requiring more interest or yield in order to hold that government debt. And that right there, a dollar flashing this much structural weakness is exactly why so many of you ask how to start moving some of your wealth out of the system that can freeze it or print it away. Well, we put together a free training video that walks you through how that actually works on DeFi, which means you're in full control. There are no middlemen.
There are no banks gatekeeping your money. And you can find that in the very first link down in the description below. This requires no commitment. All you have to do is click that link, watch this video, and apply today. Now, let's get back into the charts. So, I'm not saying it's the end of the dollar. What I am saying is that it is weakening. And so, over the next maybe bull market cycle, I think like we cover, you know, going back to what we just said, uh it's very much possible that Bitcoin's taken far more seriously uh at an institutional level, which will carry over into some of your major altcoins that you do love and hold. So let's look at the actual technicals of Bitcoin. So now that we have kind of that that framework and ground uh work laid out.
Okay. Um you can see that we do have quite a bit of support right here between 71,000 to like 62,000.
Okay. uh in the past, right? We we spent a lot of time here from March all the way into November of 2024 before rallying, breaking out, and then seeing a a crazy amount of support right here in this range, building a strong base before a slight little rally and a move to a new local high. It's pretty obvious to me now that this is our local high right here at 82 to $83,000.
Now, because that's the case, right, I'm just going to do some basic stuff here.
We're going to look at the trend.
All-time high, next range high, next range high. Okay. Now, we have two lows between those ranges. This low is lower than this low. This high is lower than this high is lower than this high. So, reasonably, okay, I would assume just betting with the trend with all of the other factors combined that it's more likely we break down to at least a double bottom, if not print a new low.
Okay? And if that's the case, yes, it's going to carry over into the crypto uh into the rest of the crypto market.
Looking at the EMAs, not only did we sell off and struggle after a week of consistently playing with that 200 day moving average, not only did we not roll over and start to print a new trend on the 200 day moving average, we actually sold off and now this thing is starting to trend back down. Okay, not not only that, trend is down. 200 EMA is down. Uh we just saw a crossover on the 10 and 20 EMA. We're back below the 20 EMA to me.
And and by the way, this is the first time we've done that going all the way back to these lows right over here in the start of April. Okay, so you can see that we even broke down below the trend.
So across the board, the confluences um are pretty high. Um or better yet, the confluences are great and the odds are higher that we're going to go lower first. Where too? Well, obviously right about 71. And here's something that I like to do to know maybe what's our first major range of support where we could see some sort of a bounce. Uh very basic stuff guys, but I'll go to Coin Glass. Let's do that right now. I think you have to log in to look at some of this data. So make sure you make an account. Uh then you can go to liquidation map right over here. So hover over liquidation to liquidation map.
Um and then when you scroll down to the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, I'm not worried necessarily about like Binance OKX by right up front. I'd like to first look at where the majority of traders levered to the uh you know to the upside or to the downside. So maybe going to that 7-day. Okay. So let's turn this off right here. And you can see that on the right hand side we have about across Binance, OKX and Bybit, which are very large derivatives markets for crypto.
We have about seven about $8 billion, okay, of liquidations that would occur if Bitcoin hits $84,800.
Okay, so what does this mean? That means more people right now are short. That's it. Okay? Or at least more money is short. Maybe less people, but more money is short, and that's going to carry more of the market. Um, and I know that a lot of people like to be counterintuitive or counter trend here, like, oh, well, uh, you know, if most people are short, I should be long. But I found that doesn't work with this type of an indicator. It's it's really interesting, I think. And I think that's because this is actual derivatives markets and day traders more often than not, uh, who are more active participants in the market and not necessarily, uh, you know, spot traders or holders, right? which are very a a significant portion of the market but a different portion of the market. So I think these people are more in tune with the market uh and its movements and less and they care less about the long-term trend which leads me to believe that this is pretty good data to look at uh for knowing where the market's going to go in the shorter term. Okay, that said, look at this. Look at the major difference here. We're talking not even $3 billion of longs in the market right now that would be liquidated if the price hits 68. So, not only that, if we toss the Binance OKX buy on there, maybe just go to the 30. Let's just see where the majority of money is. You can see that it's shifted uh pretty significantly from yesterday. A lot of people probably have pulled their bets off. Yesterday, I looked at it was $71,000 where the majority of people would be liquidated. Now, they've probably closed out some of those positions and are looking at a 74 to75.
And by the way, anything under 74 to 75, especially the 74, you see these like huge zones right here where a lot of people would be liquidated positions.
And notice how the cliff really starts to trend higher right here. And then it starts to get smaller and smaller with all these little guys down here. Do you see that? It looks like volume right around here at 744. So let's mark that on the chart is where we might see some sort of a bounce. Okay. So 74 I'll just here. How about this? Let's keep this up and I'll do this 744. Just keep it simple. Okay, we're very close there. So, if you haven't already entered a short, sometimes this is what I I do. I'll wait see what occurs here because if I'm already not in, which by the way, you know, we at least I have been. If you have been, awesome. I'm sitting in the position waiting for this watching what happens here. By the way, on a situation like if you're already in a position and so this is where it comes down to management and timing, right? If you're already in a winning position here, I'm not closing my short right here. So, you'd know, okay? Just because it's going to hit a bounce range. I'm already in pretty strong profit since these ranges up here. So, because that's the case, depending on where you've entered, right, I'll watch what happens here and then probably sell at a bounce of like a 10 or 20 EMA and add to my position somewhere around there into another move. That's usually what I'll do if I'm already in a profitable position. But if I'm not in there, right, let me remove those drawings.
And now we're already closer to the 74.
Let's say we were sitting at like 75 right now. Like your your your risk-to-reward isn't great. Maybe just give it a second. Okay. Now, there are there are a couple things that can happen here. Sometimes you'll just watch the market puke without you, and that's no fun. So, you have to you have to like come to terms with the fact that you just missed the right time or say, "I don't care if I'm going to bid a draw down as long as I'm not overleveraged and my stop loss isn't hit at $84,000."
Okay? And if that's the case and you're playing with a smaller amount of money, sometimes if I'm a little late to a trade, but I don't want to miss a trade because I'm like, I'm something in my guts like I just I I think it's going to move and I think it's going to happen sooner rather than later. So, I need to get in this trade because if I miss, I'm going to be pissed. Okay, if that happens, but I I already I know I'm starting to feel that fear of missing out and stuff, I'll just trade smaller.
So, that way I'm still in the trade, but I don't risk too much to be in it because my timing was off in terms of my entry. I think that's extremely important that you guys note that if you're going to be swinging and trading this stuff. Um, so timing really matters. Being in here is so perfect.
Look at that. I don't now it's like my stop loss is really tight. I don't risk that much and I can actually add to a position here while after I watch what happens.
So when you guys get better at at timing and like you know maybe you're watching the market more consistently like these swing trades can make you a decent amount of money and not only that you you'll like I don't know it's a big confidence boost which then you have to manage. Um but I wouldn't be entering a huge short here if I already missed the little top here. Again, it also depends on the size that you're trading. So, you know, there's a lot of factors and variables, which is why it's always hard to teach, you know, direct day trading, swing trading. Uh, and that's why it's better to probably stick with the basics, right? Learn the basics and the fundamentals, then learn how you operate. Am I consistently off on my timing? I I see all the right things, but I'm always off on my timing. Or I'm always right on my timing. I see all the right things, so I'm right on the timing and the direction or whatever, right?
But like I'm trading too big and so I always get stopped out because I'm just overlevered. Your position sizing's off.
So there's just again a lot of variables that get come into this stuff um that I want you guys to know and maybe rewatch this replay or right well you know with the note summary. I'm going to make it very clear for our note summary that like this is a really important thing to think about and there's things that you need to pay attention to based on your entries and your position size and timing. Um, you know, so that said, you'll also notice what's interesting, right, is that at the 74,400 range, not only based on this guy right here, okay, but we're seeing, look, it was a support and a resistance here between about 738 to 744.
So, I think yes, we're likely going to see some little bit of a bounce, maybe a breakdown, maybe a rally back into the range, you know, try to, you know, struggle back above 77. Watch what happens closely at the 10 and 20 EMA, probably more likely the 20 EMA. Um, and if this thing starts to struggle and break back down below or sell off at the 20 EMA, we're already below that 200 uh EMA. This is going to be looking pretty good for adding to a position short uh into these lows over here at 68 down to like 62. Okay, just depending on how violent things get over on the S&P. But I do believe we're in now for some serious volatility into the upcoming month. I mean, it's May 19th and May 20th. I think this is a day trader dream market if you're really talking about people who want to make money. Um, and like volatility. Uh, from May 20th through June 20th into June 30th, I think we're going to see some volatility that's going to make headlines every single day. And I get it, markets make headlines every single day, but I think people are going to be shocked. Uh, and that's just my personal opinion moving forward. Whether it happens, I don't know. Um, that's me hedging what I'm saying. I don't want you to just believe everything I'm saying to be true. This is my opinion based on my analysis. Um, so, uh, that said, okay, looking pretty bearish. Uh, and I think this is now going to turn over and, uh, we might get our final new lower low coming in, you know, sometime June, July, uh, into October. Uh, September, October is where we bottom out and potentially start trending back to the upside. Now, here's what all of this actually means for you.
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Uh, let's go ahead and admit someone else here. So, let me go ahead and cover any other cryptos that you guys want or answer some questions and then we will hop off the call.
Um, I don't know what lighter is. Is that like a crypto?
I don't know what lighter is.
>> The hyperlquid competitor.
>> Oh, I don't even know. Um, is that even a tradable asset that I could look up in outside of a D5? Lit.
>> Let's do USDT first. Let's add some bigger pairs.
I think that'll be good.
H everyone on crypto Twitter is talking about it like it's the next hot thing, which makes me doubt it is the next hot thing.
>> Um yeah, I don't. So, this is interesting. Um, do you know if it was it was I'm assuming it was listed in 2021. Did they rebrand or start building a new product?
>> Um, that's Mech C. They always list tokens before they launch. So, I'm not sure. I don't think it >> maybe they launched the token. I'm willing to bet they listed it and people were trading it and then they actually launched the token here.
>> That's what caused this gap.
>> Um, okay. So, then we're just going to look at these charts here. um in a current environment, right? I think and I don't know let what's that? No, I don't know what's going on there. Um in a current market environment like this, right? Although I do, let's put it this way. If we were closer to the bottom of a bare market, this is something that maybe I'd look at considering I do like the price action here. It looks pretty bottomy like it's rolled over. But knowing what I know about newly listed tokens and not knowing uh enough about their fundamentals, right, and how many tokens the team has, their treasury, how they're managing it all. Um, even if it's a good product, being so new, I'd rather buy, if you were to ask me what risk would you rather carry, I'd rather buy Hyperlid where it's at than this guy where it's currently at until I see, you know, the market maybe bottom out. uh and this has more time to potentially bottom out cuz the reality is okay this thing could rally back up to 160 pretty quickly especially if it's not on too many exchanges um you know and it's like all of that liquidity is centralized into a few exchanges that a few market makers can really control that happens often um gets a lot of people to buy and FOMO in as it rallies and immediately you sell it you know you see it slammed back down and sell off into new lower lows this is not something I'd want to touch right now. But again, I don't know enough about the fundamentals. So that's to be clear from a chart perspective. Uh and and again, going back to like my 30,000 foot view, I wouldn't touch this just yet. Um but if you know more than I do and you're comfortable with that, uh I would definitely set a stop, you know, and like just don't over buy it right at 73 cents and don't use leverage. Maybe hold spot position in that and set a stop loss at 74 because then if it does dump, dude, guys, I've seen this happen a million times. I've seen cryptos and everyone that's an expert or has been around for more than four years has seen cryptos that it looked really good at one point in time sell back below their listing candle bar. Like this thing could easily get below 30 cents easy.
Not even a question in my mind. So, um that's something to pay attention to and just be cautious with. Um but if you know, for example, if there's really good fundamentals, let me read this. Uh lighter also on Coinbase uh with circle agreement. See, there there's fundamental information that could support this thing. So, watch it closely, right? If you want to buy a breakout, the I like the chart. I don't like the current fundamental situation we're in. Um I and I don't know enough about their token. And I think that's important for you guys, right? Cuz like look at this. Sean knows way more than I do about this thing, right? Uh and so do your guys' coaches. Uh they're paying attention to this stuff. I'm not. So, I think if you're if you're like, "Okay, I do like the fundamentals. It's got a good product. Uh they could be the next thing." You know, more often than not, I'll be honest with you, it's like I've seen this too, and this is kind of just my my own experience and wisdom that I've I've built through this market.
Most of the time, the very first biggest and best is always like the one that carries the market. When you look at like unis swap, right? Then you had pancake swap. The difference there was they both launched into a very nent new market with a cool product and had insane incentives that drove them really really high and like they did really really well because we were in a bull market environment and there was fresh liquidity and everyone's rich and tossing money around and selling an NFT that they bought for 2,000 for 10,000 to 30,000 and rotating it back into unis swap and pancake swap. But it's kind the way that I view this now is like it's kind of like a Bitcoin versus a Litecoin situation. Litecoin could actually be better, right? Like 100% better than Bitcoin across the board. Let's just say it is from every level, every from a technological level, from a speed level, from a a fees level, from everything, from security, you name it. Okay, cool.
It just wasn't there first and it didn't get the it didn't get the majority of the mind share.
And so for me it's like I'd rather buy the 500lb gorilla in the room. I I am in team Michael Sailor's camp in that respect. Buy the 500 at least from his thought process buy the 500 lb gorilla on the room. Like at this point hyperlid is 100% that this is very unproven. So with that in mind even with a big fund you know a lot of funding and a cool team behind them. We saw that a million times over. Think about Sam Bankman Freed and FTX. Are do people forget this easily?
Everyone was behind him. All the smartest people in Silicon Valley. Oh, we just, you know, I don't know who the last smart guy was, A16Z and Tom Brady and this and that. And it's like nobody even checked because we're so easily fooled. So, just remember that when you see a lot of big names behind something that people can be easily fooled and if someone looks smart and sounds smart and does build a good product, it doesn't mean it's going to last.
So, uh, again, that's just a little bit of wisdom. So, for me, I'm I'm far less apt to touch this stuff right now. Um, but if you are, right, sure, buy into a breakout above 115, right? Set your stop below this range here. Um, right now, you'd have to pay more attention than during a bull market. I'd watch this position far more closely than if it was a bull market and I was buying in these ranges. Um, so, okay. Uh let's see here.
Okay. Uh SpaceX is going to be insane.
That's going to suck a lot of liquidity away from everything else and that's going to be into an environment where I think things are dumping. So, um I think you know your favorite stocks and cryptos are just going to underperform for sure.
Um okay, let's look at Yeah, sure. We can look at CH. Does anyone want me to look at anything else right now?
Where is chain link?
>> Comments in the chat.
>> Lana and Hyperliquid. Okay. Um yeah, chain link. I wouldn't be adding to a heavy position here, but look at look at Okay. So, you see this really long base. I think sellers are just kind of exhausted. And so, even any rally, there's just no real demand to push this price higher. But okay, let's say this thing does dump with the rest of the market. Look at the amount of support this thing has going back to May, right?
Uh, and this thing could spend weeks and months in these ranges. From a log perspective, this thing has underperformed the majority of these newer movers in the market. Uh, heck, even in Celestia this last cycle, you would have made more money than in in a chain link and Tia dumped for for some major lows now, right? That was just a total liquidity grab. Um, yes, in the long run this thing could hit, you know, 50 some bucks again, but how long, right? So, for me, because that's the case, this is a safer infrastructure play in the crypto market. It's safer, but for that reason, and better yet, you're paying um for that safety by missing out with that liquidity in other better opportunities. So, for me, I'm looking for, you know, probably bigger, faster movers uh or things that are going to dominate the next cycle. Um, we'll look at Lana and um, Hyperlid. I don't know much about Lana anymore. Um, I remember back in the day it was far bigger or more exciting I should say. I believe that would be on my L1 blockchains, but I'm not sure anymore.
Sometimes things get delisted.
Uh, is Lenan L1? I can't remember.
>> I think so. Yeah. Let's see if I even have it. Probably not. I think I even pulled it off. Uh, I'd probably be biggest on a Binance OKX. Maybe buy bit.
Maybe not. Did they just list it?
>> If you ever want the longest chart history, Mexi is usually the way to go.
>> Yeah. Yeah. But it doesn't always have uh Mexi doesn't always have good uh liquidity.
>> Yeah.
>> So, uh that's why I rarely do MEX. And I just I've heard sketchy things. So >> I would never touch Mexi. Yeah, exactly.
So you can you can actually see this wick already. Like I just more often than not I don't like this. But Lana looks like and this is probably why I removed it from It looks like they've all had some serious issues liquidity.
Uh it looks like a very terrible crypto to touch. So, whatever fundamentals or things you're seeing online that led you to want to look into it uh are is either by people who don't understand markets from an investing standpoint and actually make money or uh maybe they're paid shills. Maybe, you know, sometimes you get you're just your your dogmatic believers. Uh who knows? But I I would never touch this crypto. Um let's see here. Oh, you're right. I totally forgot it's an L2. Um, it's probably in my L2 list. Okay, let's look at hype.
Shocking how well it's held up.
Honestly, my short was immediately stopped above this range. So, I placed a short right here. Immediately stopped.
Um, that said, I'm still not going to buy this right now. Um, again, just in all things, I think right now this is a huge winner. So, we'll put it this way, right? If if we think it could hit 115, 200 bucks, 300 bucks this next cycle, which is very much possible, by the way.
Any of these any of those targets are very much possible. So, you know, right?
Cuz once you get into this range where you're in new all-time highs, it's it's just it's free sailing. There is no pressure. Everyone wants to buy and the market just keeps moving higher and higher and it becomes more and more unbelievable and you sold too early.
That's usually how these types of things work. with something that is performing this well relative to the rest of the market. This is indicative of serious demand. So, or a a very serious market maker or a combination of both, whatever the case might be. Right? This to me looks like a very good crypto that you wouldn't be unhappy if you bought and held it at 40 and you just might if if it did dump you and let's say the rest of the market dumps, you might have to stomach it dumping down to 30 bucks or whatever. Okay? Um, and if you can do that and you can dollar cost averages and have that discipline, I think you're going to make money on this guy personally. Um, just the charts telling me that. Imagine I knew nothing about the fundamentals. Uh, that said, again, into the current market environment, something feels off for me. And um and I this is just me practicing extreme caution here across the board and applying it equal weighted in the crypto market that if the S&P starts to dump, if Bitcoin starts to dump, I think this thing is it's just there's not going to be enough buy pressure to keep this thing up too much higher. So let's say it does dump, put in a new higher low somewhere here, 33, you know, 32, 30, wherever the case might be. I mean, these are some really screaming deals.
Either way, this is something that I'll be dollar cost averaging into uh here in the very near future. So, and if you want to start now, that's not a big deal. Um, but I don't really feel any reason to FOMO until we're holding above the $50 range with some conviction. So, we're talking from at least a 3-day to a weekly time frame. I'm not saying, for example, let's say this thing goes to a three-day time frame, holds right here at 50 bucks, and then the next week it dumps back down. I'm not going to be holding that. Does that make sense? Like I'm talking breaks out 3-day time frame and then can be supported the next 3-day time frame and the next 3-day time frame it's putting in a new higher high. Okay, like for a bullish engulfing candle. To me, that's an indicator. Holy crap, this is probably the going to see the the most explosive moves into the next bull market cycle. I'll start adding to that position. But I don't feel any uh FOMO right now. Um even though right like you might feel like you've already missed out from 22 to 48 like practice some discernment here right if you haven't already been in don't over add here um is how I'd approach a market like this but this looks really good as a market so you guys know uh let's see here injective hype um yeah we could look at injective where would I have that would be I think I know where it' be here.
Uh, let me do this.
Everything changes. Half the time they went from infrastructure tokens to DeFi to uh to like um state uh what was it called? Uh AI tokens. Like half the time they were rebranding from AI to infrastructure and that >> just a ton of different tokens is what I'm saying. So I always had to like Yeah. Um, for >> anyone who's never heard of Injective, it was kind of Hyperlid before Hyperlquid, a chain dedicated to per trading. Um, unfortunately, it did not launch in the right ecosystem >> here. Let's just do this.
>> But, uh, >> I just right there >> on your screen inj >> Oh, there it is. I was looking for a different >> um, yeah, I have no I have no reason to be buying this right now. Um, I'd just wait on something like this.
Long-term, sure, it could go up, but again, this I think already the chart looks a little bit better than something like a chain link right now, right? Um, if you're talking like I would rather, you know, like where's your higher beta play for potential more upside into if this thing actually is able to do that, but you're paying um for that opportunity with uh more risk. So, in this case, like chain link is going to be 100% a safer bet. like your odds of it at least going back to 40 to 50 bucks in the next bull market cycle are potentially greater than an injective getting there uh to maybe its prior high of 40 to 50 bucks if not a new all-time high. But again, right, that said, you probably stand to make more here too.
So, right, there are very few like uh free opportunities in this market if you will um in any market for that matter.
And um but something like this, right?
Like it's important to note that we did have um a pretty strong support here at 120 uh and now we're back to 270. It's just that this is already trending heavily down and putting in a new higher low uh or excuse me, a lower high uh in a bearish market environment. So relative to everything else, this looked pretty weak, right? Um even though in the very long term going back to 2020, it looks okay. So um take that in consideration. That's the sim a similar um thought process that I shared on um what was it TOAO last week right relatively speaking to everything else it's holding up pretty well but how long you don't know um and so in TOAO to me would probably be even a safer play than this and that's that's saying something um but market caps do matter in that respect I don't know what the market cap of this thing is and market cap simply right like people say market cap doesn't matter I think it matters to the degree that this is the trust that the actual market has in that product that's what it essentially is an indicator of, right? Like it's it's a vote of confidence from people to say, "I'm going to buy that token with $100 and now the liquidity is greater in that whole market and the market cap grows."
That's what it means. It's just a vote of confidence of trust. If I could describe market cap truly, that's what it means. Um, let's look at it real quick.
But what's interesting about a lot of these dino tokens are tokens that are older, right? more than a cycle, which is crazy. Um, is the fact that a lot of them now don't have as much overhead sell pressure from their original venture capitalists, their teams, you know, foundations, whoever's running those things. Um, which is kind of nice.
So, um, the thing is I don't know enough about the max supply circulating. It looks like most of it's circulating, right? But, um, and you know, we do have a total supply of 100 million. um $491 million market cap, right? Versus let's look at TOA. So, it's I mean this is a very easy way to look at what's potentially safer. 2.8 billion like yeah, TA's just going to be a safer bet.
Um than something like that, but both I would treat similarly in terms of how I invest into them right now. Uh probably more weighted into TA.
Um okay, I think I'm pretty good to go.
Does anyone have any final questions?
Um, >> you could turn this around maybe. I know there's a lot of different coins and things that we've asked about. So, turning it around, which one do you see has much more positive potential right now?
>> Uh, I mean, we just covered that.
Definitely hype is one of them. Um, I think the coaches have mentioned a lot of other tokens. Um, I think the fundamentals on a lot of tokens could be really really strong, but it's just not showing up in the price, which is truly the the the it's kind of like uh the monarch. The monarch has made it, you know, his choice and his choice is the money's not going to go into this one and it's going to go to the other one.
And I think uh that's just the market, right? It's it there's not enough money for all of them to to grow to insane valuations anymore. At some point there might be um but um the money's already showing up in hype versus other things which leads me to believe that that's going to be a big winner. And here's the thing guys like if we come to page five, you're going to start to see tokens that you might have heard of before. Like for example, Magic Eden, right? For me, like that was something I traded on a lot when I was just playing with NFTTS. Um this thing is sitting at a $46 million or where is it? $46 million market cap, right? I don't know if it'll ever do anything ever again. And what's interesting is what if it did though, right? This could be a far bigger winner than tower into the next cycle. It it's possible. All of this stuff is possible, but the odds are so low that it is. So, for that reason, right, I don't it's it I don't have enough time to research every single one of these. And even when I do, let's say I do, and this is why I actually flip the model on its head, or better yet, not me, but like this is just my my philosophy. And how I approach markets, I never look at the fundamentals before I look at the price.
I look at all of the prices first. How is the market actually buying or selling that thing? Is there real demand? Is it selling off heavily? Lana being the perfect example. Even let's say if there is demand from retailers, there's far greater overhead sell pressure from their team and whoever had all those early tokens to the point where maybe they've made money across the board into those new lows because they bought them at preede prices of a penny or whatever.
I don't know what the price is anymore.
Um, but at the end of the day, like that thing is just underperforming because the demand isn't actually there. And if it was, it would show up in the price.
And so that in and of itself is the greatest indicator of whether or not you should buy something um or look at dollar cost averaging into the next bull market. I'm looking for the dark horse in the race. I'm looking for your favorite ones. Um and when I spot those, those are the ones which is again very counterintuitive because in the US and you know in other countries um as well, but especially in the US, we're we're like trained to think about deals. We always are looking for a cheap price, right? If something is on sale, but that's not how you should treat markets.
You should actually look at them in the opposite respect. Like, if something is expensive, there's probably a reason why, right? It's probably because the demand is greater. It's probably because insiders or whoever is involved there know something that I don't. And they're buying it every single time there's a dip and they're buying it to greater degree than everything else.
So why would I bet against an institution who has the money to move a market instead of betting with them and just riding along their coattails, right?
>> I think Zcash is a good example of that.
>> Yeah, Zcash is outperforming a lot of cryptos right now. I think it's just the privacy stuff, right? Uh Zcash and Monero for sure. Um and then, you know, again, you could find something in this list. It's just a lot of work. So the easiest way for me is I create a watch list different market sectors and I don't watch everything on every watch list but if I'm trading on let's say even a hyperlquid right a lot of the times most of these are listed on a hyperlquid so I'll just come through here see what's changed the most over the last week and then just click through them and see oh this see how most of them just don't look interesting I don't even touch them I just keep clicking until I see something that's interesting and when I see something that's interesting right then I say ah okay let me drag that up to the top and just watch it more closely this week.
Um, and then I'll do the fun look at the fundamentals and I'll look at what what are they doing, who's behind it, you know, is there a lot of overhead supply, you know, all sorts of stuff that could affect a market. So, um, I start from the bottom up with price action first.
Um, and that's how I I find winners into into new market environments. Um, yeah, hype is a beast, though. It's it's consistently shocked me how well it's held up, which is a good indicator that that thing's going to be a serious winner into the next bull market. Um, if for whatever reason the fundamentals don't change or they don't crash or people don't lose trust, right? That that is very much a possibility in any situation. Someone's going to say they have the best security on planet Earth, I promise you anything can be messed with at some point in time. There is no 100% guarantee. Uh, and we've seen that again over and over and over in the crypto market. So, uh, just as a heads up, anything can happen. But, uh, for me, it makes the most sense that it's going to be one of the biggest winners, at least top five in terms of performers that I've seen from a price action perspective. Um, and that's not me talking about the fundamentals.
Okay, guys. Thanks so much for hanging out. Appreciate your time. Uh, look forward to seeing >> I have a question. I have a question. I put it in the chat.
>> All right. All right. All right. All right.
>> Yeah.
>> You're like, I wanted to to be able to hop off and then I'm gonna I'm kidding.
All right, go ahead and ask >> a skate ball.
>> Sorry, what?
>> So, >> okay. So, I'm looking to move some monies out of the banking system into onto the blockchain or into the crypto assets. What would be your recommendation >> to do that? I that's really tough.
That's more of like you'd probably have to and I hate to say this, but truly being in the accelerator program, our coaches would walk you through that. I think there's too many nuances for me to answer that honestly without like giving you bad advice or advice that might not be right for you because you could be maybe, you know, like are you pulling out of certain funds, right? Are there fees? Are there going to be taxes involved? Are you worried about the IRS?
Like I don't know your situation and I don't want you to have to share that with everyone here. Um, that's a really tricky situation. Me personally, because I started out younger, right? And I was just playing with little bits that turned into lots of bits on the blockchain, it's a very different situation. Um, but, uh, the easiest way if you really wanted just to like for me to say how I do it, um, I have an exchange like uh, Coinbase and a Kraken.
And I usually just do automatic deposits from every paycheck that I get outside of crypto or my trading. I'll just automatically have it just, you know, add 500 bucks, a thousand bucks into the exchange just depending on where you're at. Um, you can do more. I wouldn't do huge chunks. I think that just sets off red flags here and there. There's bigger things. They're already doing KYC, so it's not like you're getting away from anything. Again, I don't want to give bad advice here. I'm not a tax guy or anything. Um, but I the way that I do it is I just >> Yeah, it's just a typical It's just a typical checking. just just deposit just deposit money um you know regularly and then um over time you can like you know you're like oh there's an opportunity in DeFi over here uh and that's essentially what you're doing um yes you will get reported because it's all KYC if you're in the United States um they can see which wallet you withdrew to that's just the reality but it's DeFi and what's nice about DeFi is that you have total control and sovereignty so let's say the tax guy did come one day and say you owe us this much and we're going to take it from you know What's so beautiful about this is with DeFi, there truly are no intermediaries, which means it's it's kind of like uh the perfect example is the Canada Trucker freeze in like 2020, right? Where the Canada truckers wanted to protest COVID. Whether you're on the side of those guys or the other ones, doesn't matter to me. What mattered was the fact that the banks through Justin Trudeau, right, being their monarch, could say, "Shut them down because we don't like it." And they did. They literally shut down and froze all of their money. What's so beautiful about DeFi is even if they wanted to, they couldn't.
And so, so you have complete freedom in that respect. You have true control and sovereignty. Um, and I think that is the most beautiful thing about DeFi, uh, ever. And, and so that's essentially I'm I'm now I'm pitching you on DeFi, and I know that's probably like a thing that you might desire at some point. You also, because that's the case, right, you have less protections. there's you carry greater risk. If you accidentally connect your wallet to the wrong website, they could drain you. So, you just have to learn the basic how-tos and we have courses for that. Like, our coaches are there to help you. You can ask the question inside of Altcoin Pro.
They'll they'll answer. You join the accelerator program, they're literally walking you through it step by step. So, it just depends on where you're at, how much you're playing with, um, you know, your personal situation. Me personally, I just do automatic deposits. Um, and that way I'm just slowly adding to, you know, that system and getting away from traditional financial systems. At the end of the day, I'm still reliant on the traditional financial system. I don't use uh Apple Pay to pay in Bitcoin. I don't want to carry Bitcoin when I'm paying to be honest. It's too slow and heavy. It's it's it should look more like a gold or a hedge versus anything else, right? With higher beta. For me, I'm still using dollars. I'm still connecting my Apple Pay and and clicking over over uh till to get a coffee every day. So I, you know, I'm being realistic. I do want money in the traditional financial system. I just want the majority of my wealth eventually away from it. Uh, and that's how I approach that.
>> Thanks.
>> Awesome. I I hope that answer your question. Okay. Are we good to go, guys?
Uh, thanks for for pausing me. I was just making a joke with you, by the way.
Um, think we're good to go. All right, guys.
We'll uh we'll see you guys next week on the Tuesday technical analysis call and uh have a great rest of your week.
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