F.A.C.E. Show May 28th, 2026

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:02:18]Good morning or good afternoon or good evening depending on where you are.

[00:02:22]Welcome to the Face Show Thursday 28th of May nearly at month end.

[00:02:28]And uh as we've been explaining earlier, we've seen a bit of a risk blip, shall we call it? Um things not exactly uh turning out as good as it could be over between US and Iran.

[00:02:40]Mr. Trump put into uh blow up a mine, one of uh actually their their biggest partners over there um always backing up what the Yanks are doing. And uh that's uh give the risk a bit of a knock uh as well as some hostilities um lobbing stuff at each other again over there um under the guise of the ceasefire.

[00:03:03]Uh Match Blake hasn't left for it so he takes he's gone on holiday. Um hence why we're getting a little bit of volatility particularly when he jumps on the plane.

[00:03:13]Um so he'll be back next week. He's enjoying a well-earned rest.

[00:03:18]Um not that I know how much rest he's doing cuz he seems to be spending most of his time in the chat room and uh on our team's chat so he things out so uh when you're the boss you can never put your pen down for too long.

[00:03:30]Uh let's see who's with us today. We've got Mr. Kay. I think Mr. Gregor's joining us at some point but uh just Kay here at the moment. Afternoon, Kay.

[00:03:38]>> Good afternoon, Ryan. Good afternoon, morning, evening everybody else.

[00:03:42]How is everybody doing?

[00:03:45]>> Yeah, I hope everyone's doing all right.

[00:03:47]Um right, Kay, this risk stuff that's going on.

[00:03:50]>> Yeah.

[00:03:51]>> You know, if you want to the first place you'd always look is oil. Um, it's bounced. It It's not turning around. I mean, we've still got this good news move in play. Um, but we're doing a bit of uh sideways motion now because things didn't go uh particularly good overnight.

[00:04:11]>> No, we are sideways, but um levels that we were talking about whether we would be uh in crude or or in Brent, um they seem to have held.

[00:04:23]We had uh bit of that shakeout, you know, and positive or potentially positive uh positives there and uh it looks as if we found a bit of a a bit of a support zone. Um which in a way is is is logic because the the whole situation isn't over um unless those who benefit from everything that comes out of the street all of a sudden find uh ways to completely replace it by from other venues. Um, I think we we should be a bit careful. I mean, not going to sell that stuff in a hole right now and um allow for for a bit of range trading.

[00:05:03]Likely not and yeah, I'm taking a bit of a risk maybe in saying so, but likely not um going back to levels that we saw immediately because there are still chances for a uh a bit of a solution.

[00:05:20]Uh but I think we we we're finding a bit of support uh which is which is pretty logic. Um I would rather see oil on the headlines, it will jump one, two, three bucks, of course, but maybe 90 to 100 bucks or so. Um the trade that range in uh Brent for now.

[00:05:39]>> Yeah, I think so. Um we've got this old 38.2 here, which is a bit of a level on its own, um which where we sort of bounced from, so one reason I'm keeping it on there, to be honest.

[00:05:51]So, you know, it's another one of these situations when things are pretty quiet after a move, the techs come into play, and then if we get big headlines thrown around, techs aren't going to stand up for Toffee.

[00:06:03]So, you always have to be careful. Still plenty of volatility in in things like commodity markets, particularly oil, given the geography of it all. Um, gold has had a bit of a spill in gold as well.

[00:06:18]>> Yeah.

[00:06:19]>> Now, again, one of those moments I think where a lot of people were looking for a bit of a dip, so it kept dipping.

[00:06:25]>> Yeah, exactly.

[00:06:27]>> [laughter] >> Where Where was the dip that you wanted to buy? Now it is there, you know.

[00:06:34]Yeah, and I've I've been warning against this because, as I said on the flow show as well, I mean, the last leg lower in yields higher in bonds usually gold this is pretty pretty well correlated to to it, but it did not participate in in the lower yields, that is higher gold, barring a little blip. So, that was always a risk. We've been discussing that in our on the shows, and but but really in length in our chat room. So, it does still look like it's it's still a bit at risk, I would say.

[00:07:09]Been looking at it 42 3/4, somewhere there, unless it completely falls out of bed. But, I don't see the the fundamental reason for it to completely fall out of bed. But, yeah, I would I would say, I mean, it it could do another another 100 bucks lower, you know, and uh Um, we've seen when New York walked in, another little slap, but it did negate that one. So, it's an interesting zone here as well.

[00:07:37]So, yeah, it's going to be quite important where we go, and I would say into the weekend.

[00:07:44]Um Um if we get we get another shakeout, maybe that is going to be the one that allows us to to maybe reenter at the at better levels. I'm I saw this coming. I'm not sure because it's a bit against my own uh conviction uh the longer-term conviction to be to be short um metals, but um yeah, I got to be patient, I think, to uh let this whole thing play out and uh and then reenter.

[00:08:12]>> Yeah, and it seemed to have reacted to obviously the the news overnight, which you'd expect gold to rally in such a a scenario, but gold's been doing well, most safe havens, traditional safe havens have been doing the the complete opposite of what they should be doing.

[00:08:27]>> Absolutely, and it's been like that since the start of the war. And um uh it's still the correlation is still like we treated at the start of the war is uh when the war is uh is is is raging, let's say uh gold is getting a slap uh because of positions getting uh unwound still, I guess, but um I I really I'm I'm I'm looking for the inflection point when we are going to trade uh the stuff more on a on a regular on a normal correlation, which brings us then back more to yields uh then uh perhaps then then then really trading risk because the risk will uh have uh have been reduced, right?

[00:09:10]>> Yeah, exactly that. And once again, we were talking about this earlier, you know, we get a risk headline and and 1 minute, you know, the dollar's looking strong, next minute it's looking weak. Um we had this blip overnight with all that news and everything going on uh earlier hours of the morning um in euro dollar, but it's it's recovered back um are we are we going to go move back into dip buy now or are we still going into rally selling like the euro? I continued dollar strength.

[00:09:40]>> It's uh risk risk range trading right now, Ryan.

[00:09:44]I I do think though and and we have also mentioned that in in in our chat room.

[00:09:51]Um the dollar rallies and then and then I would really look especially at the euro. Um the dollar rallies in have found sellers versus euro. Euro which at the start of the the whole conflict was supposed to be the one that that was going to get hammered the most is starting to find some footing. We find it also back on crosses. Yes, it could be end of month related, but in in in general, I those those blips lower in euro dollar find find interest and and find buyers maybe more so than in other than in some other currency pairs.

[00:10:31]And I think it's it's interesting on itself.

[00:10:36]But but we still can't break either side, right? 115 6580, 116 6580 and uh wake me up when we break, right?

[00:10:47]>> Yeah. Yeah, but it's working in the the range quite nicely. Um this is a bit of a level down at 1570s.

[00:10:54]Um and I've I've been banging on about this 166570 area uh for a while. It's the it's the old fib there. It's a prior level. Uh we've done plenty of action around there as well. Um and this is this is really a range. So, if you're looking if you're looking to trade it even on the short term, you know, maybe just wait for the dips and the rallies that hold up here. Um dips are down here. If they hold, then you've got a decent range to play. Otherwise, it's just might get a bit difficult trying to pick a trade in the middle. Um this 1630s is turning into a bit of a pivot level uh as well. Um this one's a bit like gold as well, Aussie Kiwi. Um and I've I've I think I've done a I've made a good choice. I did take a little long down into the 121 figure yesterday um, then I had a bid down at 65, which missed by a few pips overnight. Um, but the key for me is that we're bouncing back into this old support zone, and it's already pretty decent resistance, which is which is bad news. So, as much as I I like the long side of this, I I don't like the price action that's going on.

[00:11:59]So, I I chucked one out fortunately for about nine pip loss, eight pip loss.

[00:12:04]Um, but I think uh, Kiwi could be seeing a bit lower in this one.

[00:12:09]>> Yep, I've got that level at 120.65 on my picture. We tagged it overnight, uh, or or there or thereabouts. Um, Yeah, I You know what? Maybe we should let the month end go by, and uh, because we don't know, I mean, if there's stuff to do in the Kiwi, it could go a bit faster than the Aussie maybe. Um, let let that go by, see where we end uh, on on tomorrow night, maybe even on on Monday morning, and um, and and see from there. I also think that we should be finding uh, support again at some point. But, um, yeah, we have to let the market uh, do its thing of obviously. It's not us to decide where this is stopping. And for the time being, as you rightfully say, it's still looking heavy.

[00:12:58]>> Yeah, and uh, Charles says the ball Kiwi overdone in the big picture. Um, I don't know. I mean, this this obviously is one hell of a move, uh, over over no hike.

[00:13:09]Um, there's obviously some stuff going on on the Aussie side of things. Uh, inflation reading coming in a touch softer than it was a bit higher on the core. We've had spending data out of Aussie, showing that there's a bit of a slowdown going on. So, maybe those rate hikes uh, starting to bite into the the which is something all central banks are going to have to look for those that uh uh, are thinking about hiking.

[00:13:31]Um but yes, this is one of those situations where you you you have a trading plan, you you like the look of a of a chart or whatever, your levels. Um but you've got to go with the price action does. Um you know, maybe this is still a great long from these levels, but right now, it's not a good long up at 121 when it's holding as uh resistance. So, if you get another test up at 12060s and it bounces from there, >> [clears throat] >> maybe it can go and claim 121 after that. But if if we hit that level, bounce back here, failed then uh I think we're heading much lower. Uh ah, here's Mr. Gregor, late as usual.

[00:14:09]Hope you got a doctor's note.

[00:14:15]>> Hey, how are you?

[00:14:16]>> I'm good. Hey dude, mate. You know you know the shots the show started 12 minutes ago, right?

[00:14:22]>> Oh, I was I was just a 1 minute late.

[00:14:26]>> 1 minute late. Okay, mate. Um yeah, I don't know what you caught up on, mate.

[00:14:29]I don't know if you want to grab the charts, give us your view, you know, maybe how risk is doing at the moment given the recent headlines.

[00:14:36]>> Yes.

[00:14:38]Uh sure.

[00:14:46]Um So, you can see the screen, yes?

[00:14:51]>> Yeah.

[00:14:52]>> Okay.

[00:14:53]Um so, basically, if you would just checking the FX quotes and US yields and metals, you would think that we are in some serious risk off moves, but then you're looking at stocks and completely still trying to somehow diverge from everything else.

[00:15:11]Um but we are here most likely in a fifth wave from that rise of March lows.

[00:15:18]So, I think that there could be um some important reversals that could show up still uh maybe in the next few weeks as I've been showing in week ahead video. The seasonality chart shows that whenever we are in a pretty strong rise through April and May that ahead of summer meaning in month of June specifically we could see some kind of a pause and this obviously would make sense if the US yields would could continue to see more gains. What we're looking at here is still that US futures 10-year futures are trading at this trendline. So it's a potential support from where we have seen a rebound, but what is very important to maybe readjust to figure it out if maybe this trendline will hold or maybe we'll see a retest of the lows is if you go on a smaller time frame and we can see that move up from that low is basically in a free waves. So that was wave A, B and very nice wave C. We have a nice reversal down in the last 24 hours or so. So I think that there is a chance that US yields will see more upside.

[00:16:35]I also think the dollar will continue to see more strength, but it doesn't necessarily mean that dollar index will see itself very strong push higher because we can clearly see the dollar is making some much more aggressive moves this week versus other currencies than euro. And obviously everything could be linked to speculations that ECB could hike rates and we can see completely different story for example on Aussie Aussie dollar where Aussie has seen a pretty aggressive reversal down. So to get the better view of what really may happen with the dollar it's still very important to keep an eye on the US yields and different dollar pairs. And since I mentioned Aussie at the end of last week, we talked about this 7180 7200 as a potential resistance.

[00:17:30]We have sold off pretty nicely from that area. We also had this gap Sunday gap that was pulling the prices lower. So we filled it now and since we are in this sell-off, maybe we could see some stabilization just near term, but overall, I just think that sooner or later this way wave C will extend even lower, possibly even towards this 70 area as well. So I am bearish on the Aussie and if the S&P 500 would see any kind of a major decline here, then of course this one would most likely extend much more aggressively to the downside.

[00:18:14]Also, Aussie Kiwi as you both discussed about few minutes back.

[00:18:22]We have very important wedge here. To me it looks like a very important top. I think that some rallies could show up maybe from 1 to 2040 area, but if we see a retest of that resistance here around 12140 all the way up towards this trend line that was broken and can react as a resistance here around 21 80. So that area for me it's a potential area for shorts as long the market is trading below that highs here and we know that uh uh Bank of New Zealand, they're looking most likely to for more hikes. Uh it's completely a different story with RBA as you know and I think that there is a chance that if we get some rally that this will be short-lived and that um correction has much more room to go here.

[00:19:19]Um also, looking at crude oil, um uh crude oil is basically still stuck in some very long triangle range here.

[00:19:32]Um but, this one to me it still looks like that it has some unfinished business on the downside. We have as you know several important gaps when uh Firstly, the big one is here around six 60s 66 or so.

[00:19:48]Um but, of course, to get towards these levels, you want to see triangle being broken. But, now when you we just focus on basics, then of course, uh whenever we complete uh the recovery at the upper side of the range, you would expect that market will move towards the lower side of the range. And what this makes interesting is that we have this gap here uh from that's the one from April 20 that is still widely open. So, I think that this looks like a quite nice potential zone that market could be targeting, but after the current rebound that I'm watching. So, I think that there is a chance for some near-term retracement first now when there's still a lot of uncertainty if this deal or negotiations are really going well or no. Uh so, I think that market uh um participants are a bit of undecided at the moment, and of course, we could see some rallies, but then watch out this unfilled gap from this uh from this week uh from uh this weekend. So, that's a pretty nice and important resistance area if it's going to be filled.

[00:20:56]Usually, that's how I look at those gaps. Firstly, when they are open, market could be moving towards them, but then when a lot of orders are indeed this empty area executed, we could see a new reversal in in price. So, after that recovery here in the near future, I would be looking for for another leg down here. And of course, if we get any kind of a rebound here, it would make sense to expect maybe some deeper pullback on stocks. And here's also the intraday wave structure that I'm looking at. Uh we came very close to this May lows. We are now trying to recover out of this downward channel. So, maybe we will see this kind of a recovery playing out. And if we see this area retested, I just think that that's the perfect zone from where we could see another uh resumption lower. Um also looking at the euro dollar, as I said, euro is maybe if you're looking for some kind of dollar longs, maybe some pairs are much better choice rather than euro um because if it's really going to hike rates, then of course, um we could see some uh supports that will remain in place here, and we could rally a bit. But if you look at the wave structure, still um to me that all price action looks bearish. So, it's I know that sometimes looks my charts confused here, but that's the basics what I'm looking at. So, we have very strong down, and now this pulse look like looks like a correction. Of course, it can also become more complex, but if we start breaking the lower trend lines, where we have two trend line supports here around 115.50, and if we see a daily weekly close below that levels, then I'm afraid that we will continue towards much lower prices, which at some point I think euro dollar will retest these lows, while we are still trading um below that previous January highs, and also the recent April high as well here. And of course, this rate differential is something that um makes me bearish. Looks like that the US yields much more are rising much more than the one in Europe. And of course, based on the past cycles, the correlations work pretty well. So, you can see that there is a pretty big gap here. So, I'm thinking that there is a plenty of room for the euro to resume lower. But as I said, maybe it's better to look at some other currencies rather than euro-dollar if you are really wanted to look for to trade dollar on the long side. Um maybe it's worth to mention also euro-swiss.

[00:23:41]Now, euro-swiss has made a pretty nice reversal. As you know, Swiss National Bank, there are somehow dovish to neutral.

[00:23:49]But um the ECB, if they really would hike, that's the one pair that I would keep an eye on because ECB members said that even if deal is going to be reached, they still should be looking for potential hike. So, if deal is reached, there will be less demand for Swiss franc because in geopolitical tensions, Swiss franc is known as safe haven. So, in such case, this I believe could be quite important reversal or new upside here for euro-swiss which euro-swiss which, after all, has a very nice five waves up and a countertrend movement here looks very corrective. So, you can clearly see for those who are new to Elliott Waves that was a very strong move in a very short period of time. While here, we have this correction that is now taking um this only 61.8% against the previous rise, but it takes much longer.

[00:24:48]Of the of that 61.8% distance. So, in my opinion, that looks like a correction that maybe is already trying to complete the pattern down here. So maybe we have a low in place and after the near-term retracement, we are now at some resistance levels here as you can see.

[00:25:06]I think that maybe next week we could continue trade even higher.

[00:25:12]Um Also, since you mentioned gold and silver, I'm not sure if you mentioned silver, but I know that you talked about gold.

[00:25:21]Well, firstly, I want to look at gold-silver ratio. So again, this model itself it shows the pretty clear wave structure. So that was a very strong recovery. So in this kind of environment means that metals are in a corrective mode, right? So we are missing at least one leg to the upside because whenever even if that's whole movement is going to be counter trend, then corrections still should be structured by three waves. So I'm looking for wave C to the upside and if that really breakout will occur and sooner or later wave C will show up.

[00:25:58]This will put some more bearish pressure on metals and silver obviously could decline much more.

[00:26:05]And if we look on gold, the correlation that you discussed earlier that are not working maybe as they should, maybe gold everyone would expect that would be much higher because of geopolitical tensions. Then you have also higher inflations and higher inflation everyone said that gold is a very good hedge for inflation as well.

[00:26:26]But it looks like that that's not the case yet here.

[00:26:31]We look at these cycles at the bottom of the two-year US yields whenever this one is on the rise, meaning that Fed is on a post or maybe even market participant thinks that they should hike, the gold is also on post.

[00:26:49]So I'm I'm the camp that until this cycle changes, that gold will continue consolidate. And when this cycle could change? Well, if we start seeing in few months from now, US CPI data coming back below 3% and maybe then even closer to 2.5 or even lower. Then of course, this would be completely different story based on this correlations here.

[00:27:13]Um Also, if we take a look on silver wave structure here, I still think that this drop from January highs is not finished. We are now in the middle of this second leg, meaning wave B. So, big support zone for me is anywhere between $45 and $55. So, that would be another round of massive liquidations, I believe, because everyone who missed this train, firstly, when they saw saw this very strong drop of 40%, a lot of them wanted to join this trend. Well, unfortunately, too late. So, there was then another liquidations that occurred and a lot of those that participated in this first corrective leg were most likely liquidated here. And now this zone looks like another period of accumulation and I just think that if we get this wave C to the downside, a lot of traders with weak hands will be out of the market and that's most likely when we could expect a major bottom to form from sentiment perspective, at least.

[00:28:24]Um Also, maybe a cryptocurrencies, uh I mean, they are in a pretty strong decline here. We are looking at the Ethereum. We are breaking quite significantly this trend line support zone. Now, I think that Ethereum is targeting this April lows that was from 2025, as you know, very important a when a lot of markets bottomed, Uh but a lot of markets also reversed, retraced all the way back towards these April highs, of course, in different time horizon, but still a lot of them did. And I think that the Ethereum is still missing this kind of a structure, so maybe in the next uh few weeks we will see Ethereum that will see much more weakness compared to Bitcoin, which it already touched, I believe, this, yes, April lows of 2025 here. But even this one is showing potential bearish structure, and if Bitcoin, which is known as a best coin in cryptocurrencies, will also see this broken channel, then I think that, as you know, cryptocurrencies have a lot of room to correct lower. I think that the major support for Bitcoin this year is around 50,000.

[00:29:39]>> Thank you very much, guys.

[00:29:40]>> Questions?

[00:29:41]>> Um now, I'm not going to bring that I'm I'm going to bring that Steven, cuz we've got some data coming up in 3 minutes. Um >> Yeah, perfect.

[00:29:48]>> A big pile of data, so I don't know I'll see Steven in the in the background. Uh I don't know if he's uh got his mic plugged in.

[00:29:55]Afternoon, Steven.

[00:29:56]>> I assume that's me.

[00:29:58]>> Yeah, well, there's no one else here called Steve.

[00:30:00]>> [laughter] >> So, definitely you.

[00:30:02]>> There's actually nobody here called Steve, but okay.

[00:30:05]>> Yeah, even Steve not called Steve, but uh >> Exactly.

[00:30:08]>> We won't get into that one, but uh >> Exactly. Yeah, but you you English people have some difficulty pronouncing some names, so let it be.

[00:30:16]>> I I'll just call you Dave if if it was my choice, but uh there you go. Um so, you've got >> Call me Call me Mary, I prefer it.

[00:30:24]>> [laughter] >> That's my night name.

[00:30:26]>> I think he's right that he was making allusion to uh Only Fools and Horses.

[00:30:31]>> Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Um yeah, so we've got [clears throat] some some data coming up. Steve, do you think it matters? I know uh Nacho, our mate Nacho, thinks it's going to it could cause massive moves. Um, we know there's an inflation issue at the moment. Um, it's been touted that uh core PC is going to come in at 3.3, so the market's around that. Um, is there is there a risk that it's higher or is there a risk that it's not as high, Steve?

[00:31:00]>> I mean, I I I I hate to be repeating myself. Yes, there is a risk that this is going to come higher. Uh no question about that.

[00:31:07]Uh but it's already multiple times that.

[00:31:10]All right.

[00:31:12]Uh and of course the market will react to whatever number we're getting and that's certainty.

[00:31:18]But on the other hand, the effect of the real uh inflation is what is causing uh is all this social unrest which uh keeps increasing, right? Because no matter what you report, the erosion to the purchasing power is what it actually is.

[00:31:35]It doesn't really matter matter how you report it, but yes, today's numbers can be important. Especially if they overshoot, right? There is no question about it. The market should react to that, especially now that the market seems to be in a stalemate. Uh I think that people stopped >> [snorts] >> um they stopped trying to assume developments in the Middle East. I think I think market participants are tired of uh you know reacting to rumors. So, they have to react on something.

[00:32:08]>> Yeah. Now, I think so. We've got the data coming in 2 seconds, so it should should drop here pretty quickly.

[00:32:15]Here we go. Jobless claims okay. Durable >> Jobless claims practically as expected.

[00:32:20]>> GDP a little bit softer.

[00:32:21]>> GDP massively >> Whoa.

[00:32:24]Oh.

[00:32:24]>> Uh overshooting.

[00:32:26]>> PCE as expected, 3.8 and 3.3.

[00:32:29]>> Yeah, which is extremely high.

[00:32:32]>> Durable [clears throat] goods.

[00:32:34]Um have to look into that number cuz uh that's a high number.

[00:32:36]>> Durable goods is the only uh number that came in uh uh good, actually.

[00:32:41]>> Yeah.

[00:32:42]So, that that We'll have to check out the data, cuz obviously when you strip out bits and bobs like uh high ticket items, um then it can come in a little bit softer. So, ex-defense Oh, so it looks a good number. I wonder if there's some uh aircraft numbers in there. Um you'll be too late to see the Boeing number, or it's too early to see the Boeing numbers, the China deal coming into things like that, but um still good numbers. Anything uh stand out there for UK?

[00:33:07]>> Um well, okay. I mean, my personal view is that durable goods haven't moved markets for quite a while, but they should, but they are not. Um they they are coming in pretty good. No, for the rest, uh a lot is coming in as expected.

[00:33:22]Let's um just look at those April data, because Q1 data, obviously, um are um well, they are much higher than than than Q4, but uh that was before the whole uh Middle East uh situation started. So, um no, the rest as expected. Um Could have been worse, maybe, the April number?

[00:33:44]>> Yeah.

[00:33:45]>> Yeah.

[00:33:46]>> Yeah.

[00:33:46]>> Could have been >> Worse in the Worse in the sense could have been a lot higher.

[00:33:51]>> Yeah. Yeah, exactly. So, uh let's see what's going on. Um I think you might be waiting a bit longer for your massive move.

[00:33:58]>> The dollar has pulled back slightly following the data.

[00:34:02]>> [clears throat] >> Uh speaking about the dollar, uh this is something we I I I've been talking about for for days now, and Morning Edge as well, in the analysis.

[00:34:14]The dollar has been stuck The dollar index has been stuck uh for what is it, like 8 9 days, something like that, in a very very very tight range, uh between 98.90 and 99.50. That that tells you all you need to know about what effects is doing at the moment, which is practically almost zero.

[00:34:34]>> Yeah, let me let me put the Dixie on my on my screen, Steve. That's That's where we got to on that.

[00:34:40]Um Greg, had you seen anything in this uh data yourself? I mean, we've got nothing of a a move going on at the moment.

[00:34:46]Dollar a little bit weaker.

[00:34:48]Um but any anything you see, Greg?

[00:34:51]>> Um nothing really, but if euro [snorts] dollar would go towards 1.1660, I think that that's still a very important resistance here on for this week. It has been retested a few times, so I'll be looking again uh for reversal up there.

[00:35:07]>> Yeah.

[00:35:07]>> One thing is for sure, the market has really quieted down.

[00:35:11]And this has to be resolved one way or another. The The easy and obvious way this can be resolved is by uh getting some real news about um uh the Middle East.

[00:35:24]Right?

[00:35:25]Uh the other way is something like data uh that might come, you know, uh as a big outlier at some point uh forcing the market to break the stalemate.

[00:35:38]>> Yeah, I think the the data will come back to be important again once we get over this Iran stuff. Um but that said, you know, some data is probably going to be more important others to particularly price data, price expectation data. Um you know, the ECB might have uh got a little bit of good news this morning from the the Eurozone consumer sentiment numbers. The The price metrics there coming down um heading into uh what's potentially a June hike.

[00:36:05]Um so, it's it's all on the clock still.

[00:36:08]If we're still doing this in the last couple of >> The The problem is that people are afraid in committing because, you know, then a headline can come out and ruin their positions.

[00:36:19]>> Yeah, which is exactly what we're saying, you know.

[00:36:22]Yesterday stocks were taking off to uh to fresh highs or look like they were taking off to fresh highs and then here we are crunching down through support. So, you know, you can't you can't marry a position at any time in these markets at the moment. We got a nick through but that was just a spike move and then we're back below this high and then breaking through support. So, 75 the figure 75 50s 60s is your range to play at the moment. Depending on what you're looking at, gaps have been closed and what not. I think again if if we get a another test up here to test these highs and it doesn't get through maybe we pull short around the 40s 50s bang our head there then I think we're probably heading lower back into the 74s. I wouldn't be surprised to see 74 and a half 74 30 something like that.

[00:37:17]If that price action happens conversely if we do crack this high again in you know pretty quickly from here we're probably off to the races again and then we're guessing how high it's going to go. Okay, any anything you want to look at quickly?

[00:37:31]>> Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, but yeah and and that's you get also said data but I mean the prices are one thing but the scrolling down and there was so much coming out at the same time what I don't particularly like in those data are the personal income data.

[00:37:46]Consumption for April is flat or 0.1.

[00:37:51]Real consumer spending even for the Q1 is coming in lower than the prior and and because we was we we were talking about the this this front running potentially events etc. but it seems that the consumer is starting to hook off and that would be something that I don't particularly like to be honest.

[00:38:15]>> Yeah, and if it's going to happen here and it's happening in Australia it's going to happen everywhere else and again you ask the question why on earth are central banks going to hike into that?

[00:38:25]>> Absolutely.

[00:38:27]>> I still I still maintain they'll never do it in a million years, but a rate cut is probably the best thing they could do at the moment, not a hike, to offset this sort of weakness in spending that we're probably going to see, but that goes against every rule in in their book, uh particularly.

[00:38:46]>> The guys the reaction that they will have now, I mean, ECB will press the panic button. They will say that it's an insurance hike, but it's absolutely ridiculous because you're you're hiking into bad inflation. If you're hiking to If you're hiking to good inflation, which is more jobs, more activity, etc., etc., fine. But hiking in in this kind of inflation that we see now is a is a huge mistake.

[00:39:11]>> There is no Sorry, from a from a fundamental economic perspective, I will which is one of the few times I will disagree with you, K.

[00:39:21]There is no such a thing as bad bad and good inflation. Inflation is only bad, and good economies and employment do not create inflation. They they make inflation go down.

[00:39:33]Productivity and production reduces inflation, doesn't increase inflation.

[00:39:37]This is a spending does >> If you put more money in the people's pockets, they spend more, and that's pushing up prices, usually, anyway.

[00:39:45]>> Um yeah, but in order to put more money in people's pockets, uh there are two ways to do that.

[00:39:53]The artificial one, creating money out of thin air, and putting it in their pockets, the extreme example of which we saw under COVID, right? Which is exclusively inflation.

[00:40:07]And there is the normal way of doing that, increasing economic activity, increasing production, in which case uh you put more money in people's pockets, but the available amount of goods out there in the economy has increased as well, in which case you do not create inflation.

[00:40:26]The problem is that we've normalized what is a completely abnormal way in treating the economy, and that's why we think economic activity produces inflation.

[00:40:37]Because real healthy economic activity does not produce inflation, it reduces inflation.

[00:40:42]>> Uh, it it it depends which which one. I mean, if it's if it's more job creation, more spending, etc., it could fuel a little bit inflation. If it's driven by AI, I completely agree. Productivity will will push inflation down, but I mean, that's uh then then we're creating other other problems anyway, so.

[00:41:01]>> Uh, I don't agree with uh the uh differentiation, as I said before.

[00:41:08]Um, healthy job creation, uh coming as a result of increased demand and increased is the willingness to supply stuff because people want to buy it, do not it does not create inflation.

[00:41:21]It actually uh forces inflation down over time.

[00:41:25]Uh, when the US had a had a real proper functioning economy, it spent almost 100 years being in deflation while economic growth was amazing.

[00:41:39]>> Fair points, Steve.

[00:41:41]>> All right. I'm I'm I'm going to be referee this match. I'm going to I'm going to say what I always say is that uh central banks have absolutely zero effect on economies' inflation, um except to crunch it with their rates.

[00:41:55]Um, they could leave well alone and do nothing, and the markets will sort itself out for them. Uh, they they're trying to change the tides of the sea sometimes, these guys. Anyway, um before uh I have to throw a a bucket of cold water over Kate and Steve, we're going to call call an end to the show.

[00:42:12]But no, it's good info good good to have uh lively debate.

[00:42:16]Um all opinions obviously welcome here Forex or trading analytics I should say.

[00:42:21]Still getting the old name wrong.

[00:42:23]Right, thank you everybody. Thanks Gregor, Kay, Steve for coming today.

[00:42:27]>> Cheers guys.

[00:42:28]>> Thank you guys. I'll in 35 minutes I'll be on the morning heads.

[00:42:32]>> Yep, good good. And thanks to everyone for coming and watching today's face show. Catch us tomorrow on the flow show or again on face tomorrow. Have a great day.