BITCON CONTINUES TO HODL 80K! - Live Trade Analysis

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:01]All right, morning everyone. Welcome to another episode of the Daily High. I will probably be your only host, Tone Vase. Uh the boys did a show yesterday uh Matt and Belaloo where they discussed Belaloo's incredible trade through the IT trading system uh which is a pretty hedged trading system but Belaloo uh was able to enter a trade and uh basically hit the jackpot uh and uh you can check that out on yesterday's show I believe where he talked about how this trade that really only had a risk of losing a few hundred. Uh that was his max risk, maybe $500 maximum risk, but probably way less than that. And uh he was up like 20 grand on this trade. So, uh definitely want to check that out. And I'm sure they explained how it did it. I should really watch that show. But I mean, I I understand how the trading system works. They showed it to me uh when I was with math and with Belaloo in Thailand and Japan respectively. I've been uh uh I'm in Colorado. I've been uh dealing with a dental problem and uh I'm probably going to have a dental surgery to remove a tooth in a couple of days.

[00:01:21]I've been like completely out of it. So, uh taking a bunch of painkillers right now through the show. So, uh couldn't go a whole week without a show. I have no idea if there's going to be shows the rest of the week for me, but later today, uh, I'm also going to be doing we're going to be recording a video with the Financial Syndicate guys, Mark Wood, uh, and a few other guys, and I'll try to get that uploaded as well. Uh, so I thought I'd give you some really good content today, uh, because the rest of the week is, uh, going to be tricky.

[00:01:54]Also, sad to hear about ugly old goat.

[00:01:56]Let me go straight to screen share now.

[00:01:58]Uh, probably go over to my X account.

[00:02:01]Uh, let me see here. X.com.

[00:02:05]Uh, it's so sad to, uh, uh, to hear that Ugly Old Goat passed away. I spoke to him earlier this year. I really was planning on spending a little more time uh, you know, with Ugly Old Goat. Uh, here it is. Here's my uh, uh, here's my message. This is the first time anyone has ever heard of Ugly Old Goat. Uh, he was on my my There it is. Um, he wasn't even shown his face on this video, but the second time I had him on my YouTube channel, uh, he did show his face. So, you can see how long ago this was. This was all the way back in, um, oh, I even have this as unlisted.

[00:02:55]Uh this was all the way back in 2018, 2017 even uh 2017.

[00:03:04]And uh yeah, if you Google my name and his name, you will find my other interviews with him on YouTube. Uh but this is the first his first ever appearance was on December 7, uh 2017. We met up in Mexico, I believe. And um this was my Airbnb in Mexico at the time.

[00:03:27]And then I think he was on my show again a few months later and this time he did show his face. So unfortunately ugly old goat has passed away. All right, let's go to the charts. Um I'm going to try to keep this short because we have a longer video later today. Hopefully I have enough uh uh painkillers for my tooth problem to uh to get through that show.

[00:03:52]Okay. Uh we got rejected exactly where I expected us to get rejected. Uh here we are on the monthly chart and you can see that the monthly rejection point was right at $83,000.

[00:04:07]The weekly rejection points a little bit higher, but the monthly is uh right here at um $83,000.

[00:04:18]We got rejected there, but we are holding 80,000 very very nicely, which sets us up for next month's green star candle if we can break 83,000, which would be a very very bullish indication.

[00:04:34]Uh the weekly chart has its uh rejection line over here in the you know $865,000 range. And I do think we should make it into that weekly rejection. Now the later in the cycle we make it to the rejection and by later in a cycle I mean next month versus this month. Let's say if we make it into this rejection point next month, it would be a lot more bullish for Bitcoin versus making it there this month. Um, I would love to see us get there on the MRI top itself.

[00:05:13]So, I'm going to slide these arrows over and I'm going to try to match these arrows with the MRI itself. We are on week five. So, then we have week six is May 18. week seven, week 8 is June 1 and here we are. So June 8th, okay, so I have it accurate. So that should be the week of June 8th. So I'm going to make this arrow. Well, I think we're I I think this week is just going to be consolidation.

[00:05:41]So this is kind of how I'm going to have it.

[00:05:45]Now, because we topped right at right below 83, I would like to see this go closer to 87 than 86 like that before. And this should be the week of June 8th. Perfect. And then the pullback should keep us uh ideally not below 78. So something like this. Something like this is what I'm really really eyeing for a breakout.

[00:06:16]And if this breakout actually happens, you know, going into August, that creates a very, very bullish situation for Bitcoin.

[00:06:34]So, I'm bullish on this weekly scale even though there is a moving average.

[00:06:39]This is an alpha metrics moving average.

[00:06:41]Um, so for me it's not as critical, but looks like it did do something.

[00:06:50]Daily chart.

[00:06:52]Let's look at the daily chart. The daily chart hit its MRI top in consolidation.

[00:07:00]As you as the, you know, long-term viewers of this channel know, MRI tops in consolidation are bullish to me. uh and therefore I think that we will stay above 79 on this current pullback.

[00:07:20]I would like to see a reset. Well, actually we did have a reset with a red one on the MRI top candle, which means that we did not kick off any extensions, but I would like to see a reset again.

[00:07:34]So maybe the arrow should go from here.

[00:07:37]I'm going to delete these arrows because they already done its job.

[00:07:42]And this is still the resistance zone.

[00:07:46]Between 84,000 and 87 12,000 is our resistance zone. And let's see if we get into that resistance zone in line with the weekly uh uh counts and the weekly candles.

[00:08:02]But the daily right now is in consolidation.

[00:08:05]you know, I would be planning to buy the dip around 79 if it gets there or the breakout above 82. Uh once we close a daily candle above 82, uh and also keep in mind this is the 200 day moving average right here at the top of the alpha metrics wave. So, can you guys see this? Yeah, you can. Um uh this circle, let me for those of you watching on the phone, I should have it over here.

[00:08:35]This is the top of the 200 day moving average. So, we got rejected by the 200 day moving average. Uh the next time we go and close above 82,000, we will be above the 200 day moving average, setting us up for a nice move to the upside. Uh once we get over this resistance zone, we will have to deal with the MRI resistance line. But I think dealing with the MRI resistance line will be easier than dealing with the MRI uh uh resistance zone. In fact, I think the MRI resist sorry the uh chart resistance zone will probably cause a longerterm pullback back to the 200 day moving average creating an MRI buy situation which should create a lower MRI resistance zone because remember this MRI resistance zone arrived the moment this MRI I came in and we can look back at this chart in five years from now uh and you know reflect on the fact that the MRI and the alpha new metrics green diamond both called the low uh in this bare market. I am starting to get more and more confident that the low for the bare market is in. We're going to talk more about that later today when I do the video with the financial syndicate guys.

[00:10:10]And uh we broke the MRI support zone on the hourly chart which is not good. Uh which does indicate more downside. Uh and that is consistent with what I think on the daily chart here. I do think that uh the daily chart has a few more days of downside to reset the MRI count.

[00:10:32]Hopefully we don't go below 79, but anything is possible.

[00:10:38]Uh the hourly chart is absolutely bearish uh by breaking the MRI support line which has been acting as support incredibly well um you know all throughout the last two days. How about the 4hour chart?

[00:10:57]Ooh, the 4hour chart is very bearish as well. Uh but the last time the the chart was bearish, look at this beautiful MRI buy on a 4-hour chart marking the lows.

[00:11:08]And if we can get one more MRI buy without breaking below the MRI support line at 79 12, that would create a beautiful opportunity uh to buy the dip on the 4hour chart. So keep an eye on that. This is the 8 a.m. candle. It only has 46 minutes left. um the show will not be that long. So I won't stay with you for the next candle. But we got about five more candles to reach the other buy. So 5* 4 is 20 hours. So 20 hours from now should be around 800 a.m.

[00:11:39]Eastern time tomorrow. So tomorrow morning, look for a potential reversal of the 4hour MRI buy, MRI low, MRI buy if we continue to go down.

[00:11:55]All right. Uh, let's glance at some other markets. Oil is creeping back up.

[00:12:00]I am very concerned about the future of the Middle East conflict. I think the Middle East is done. Uh, I I I haven't done any political shows. I'm debating if I should. I will be very controversial. But in my uh you know the TLDDR on my opinion 10 years from now or even 5 years from now there will be zero oil coming out of the Middle East. The Middle East will be an unlivable destroyed region of the world. I would be very happy to be wrong but at the moment I have a very very pessimistic view on uh the future of the Middle East.

[00:12:46]What does that mean for oil prices? It depends. It depends how much oil Russia is going to be pumping out. It depends how much oil US is going to be pumping out. Uh and it depends how much oil Europe is going to need. uh because if Europe is completely economically destroyed and uh then Europe doesn't need any energy because there's you know it's you know decimated right u so if Europe doesn't need the energy uh then the world doesn't need to produce more energy and uh that's about it Russia and China can take care of themselves u China uh in five years from now China is going to be 80% % nuclearpowered anyway. So, they're not they're barely going to need any oil.

[00:13:32]Uh, and the oil that they do need will come from Russia. And the US has plenty of oil for itself. Uh, and I'm not sure what Latin America is going to do. I mean, they have Venezuela. Uh, but uh uh yeah. Um, I think that uh Europe will be completely decimated and Middle East will be just an unlivable region of the world again.

[00:14:02]Uh that's too detailed of a question about Israel, Turkey, and NATO.

[00:14:06]Definitely not going to discuss it on this channel.

[00:14:10]Uh but uh the other stuff that I said, you know, you got to plan accordingly. I think the price of oil will continue to rise. Uh and I do think oil will reach uh you know, 120 130. I think oil will break this MRI resistance line sooner or later. Probably sooner than later.

[00:14:40]I think the Clarity Act would be bullish for Bitcoin. So, if the Clarity Act passes, uh I think it would help the price of Bitcoin go higher.

[00:14:54]Now the cycle charts um I still think that the four-year cycle is here. The only difference is the low in Bitcoin might have come one year early. Uh now this is a four-year cycle. So something arriving one year early is not a big deal inside a four-year cycle. So this pattern here if we go to the cycle low area this is how the price uh bottoms and when the price bottoms. So how the price bottoms is very very similar to how it bottomed in each of the last three cycles. The only difference is when the price bottomed and the price bottomed a year early. Now, one of the years, one of the reasons why the price bottomed a year early is because the price top was uh while the price top came in right on schedule from a time perspective, it came in very very depressed from a price perspective. So because the price never rallied to the highs of expectation, the downside to reach downside targets in price uh would not have taken all that long.

[00:16:11]And therefore, I think it's reasonable to think that this is why the bare market was so short because the price of Bitcoin didn't have to go very far. Now, usually the price drops more in percentage terms. You can see last time we dropped about 73% and the time before we dropped even more by percentage, dropped closer to 85%.

[00:16:38]81%. And the time before that we dropped even more.

[00:16:47]And the spike was even lower than that.

[00:16:50]So this doesn't affect counter counter the uh that doesn't affect the the it was the spike was lower. So um this time around we uh yes it hurt that the price didn't go up as high in that bull market of ours but the good news is the downside of it was only 50%.

[00:17:14]uh a little more than 50 because again the the spike didn't is not registering on this type of chart. But the benefit of having uh not gone as high as we expected is that the crash was only 50% and not 80% like it usually is. Um I mean I think that's good and uh I am leaning towards this being the low.

[00:17:40]We're not out of the woods yet. We still need, you know, another six months uh to kind of know for sure. But man, once we start crossing that $90,000 area, I will be 99% sure the low is in. Right now, I'm like at the 65 70% level. Maybe a little bit over 70% that the low is in.

[00:18:02]Uh yeah, 65. I'm over 70% confident that the low is in. I would be comfortable holding bullish trades for the long haul.

[00:18:12]And uh and that's a good thing because now we're starting our bull run earlier than in year than in cycles past. In cycles past the bull run would you know begin after the low but the low would happen a year later. So our bull run starts earlier but based on the last bull run it was very very slow moving.

[00:18:35]So, this slowm moving bull run could continue for the next 3 years or so and still barely make it to the $250,000 range. Uh, even if we are bullish for the next 3 years. Um, so let's see where our next top is.

[00:18:55]And us breaking the $120,000 top before the next having is also not unique because that happened in the last cycle. Uh the in the last cycle we did break to a new all-time high prior to the having. So it is very likely we will break to a new all-time high prior to the next having which is now less than two years away.

[00:19:24]Okay. Okay, what else we got? Bitcoin dominance. I like where it is. Continues to grow.

[00:19:30]Um, I think gold has topped once again for the fourth time and I am expecting lower prices for gold. Silver is acting a little bit differently, but I also think silver has is topping as well. The M the week the daily MRI top still has some more upside for silver. I'm a little skeptical. Uh, let me go back to the gold daily.

[00:19:53]Uh the gold daily is flipping its MRI.

[00:19:56]If the gold daily gets a red star candle tomorrow, I think that's it. Uh on a weekly scale, gold is bearish and silver is probably bullish. Yeah. So, they're diverging a little bit. I would trust gold over silver. So, I think silver is playing a little trick on you.

[00:20:20]S&P 500 finally has a little bit of a pullback to a weekly start. I think the escalation in the Middle East will begin right after Trump gets back from China.

[00:20:32]And I think that should, you know, pull back the market a bit. I remain a massive bull on the stock market as I have been for the last 15 years.

[00:20:44]And after a short pullback, I'm expecting more upside, but I don't expect it to save the Republicans in the midterm elections.

[00:21:02]uh Bitcoin and its correlation to the software index.

[00:21:12]Uh they're both approaching its 38% Fibonacci line and a rejection here makes total sense.

[00:21:21]Now this is interesting to me. The 30 and 20 year treasury rates are pushing their what 10-year highs, 20-year highs.

[00:21:33]Let's see how back far back this goes.

[00:21:37]This is very very very interesting.

[00:21:43]So only in October of 23 did the 30-year interest rate higher. And this goes all the way back to 2007. Wow.

[00:21:59]20 years. So the 30-year interest rate is pushing a 30-year high.

[00:22:06]And yet the Fed funds rate is like a full percentage lower. A full percentage and a half, almost a percentage and a half lower.

[00:22:18]That is a mismatch.

[00:22:21]And what's going to happen is the Fed will have no choice but to raise interest rates. if and you have no idea how angry Trump will get and uh he may declare war on the Federal Reserve.

[00:22:42]So Powell is still in charge of the Federal Reserve, but I think he's going to get fired. So the moment uh that happens, uh he's pretty much fired. Uh, so I don't know what the Fed's going to do, but the free market is screaming at the Fed that it needs to raise the base rate. Uh, and I believe that it will have no choice but to raise the base rate. Um, I need to keep up with my spreadsheet of the USA budget. Uh, the 2026 numbers. Uh well they started I need to get a little bit of an update here. Haven't done this in a while. The new tether numbers are in. I got to calculate this.

[00:23:36]Uh I was very confused what happened with El Salvador entering the picture.

[00:23:41]But this El Salvador number appears to be this tether number. So this is not you don't add these up. You don't add tether to this. I just wanted to see Tether being represented on this chart.

[00:23:56]But this Tether number of 122 billion uh 94 billion of that is uh counted as the country of El Salvador because that's where Tether is doiciled. And the same thing goes for Canary Islands. Uh it's not the government of the Canary Islands. It's the hedge funds doiciled in Canary Islands uh holding massive amounts of US government debt. I am really really curious how quickly China is going to delever from US government debt. This increase uh into 2026. This is only like one month worth of data. uh just keep in mind that if uh the government of China does not purchase any additional US government bonds, the value of these bonds is continues to fluctuate based on the interest rate of those bonds. So when you see this number go up from 684 billion to 694 billion, it does not mean that China bought more bonds. It could mean that China bought some American bonds, but uh it could also mean that the interest rate change uh increased the value of those bonds. Okay? So if the interest rate uh drops uh the value of the bonds increases, it's an inverse relationship. Uh you have you you've had to have studied bonds to understand that. So I expect this number to go down and go down significantly.

[00:25:38]Um so I'm really curious uh which countries are picking up US government debt especially in this time with the Middle East. Uh and the Middle East has its own section. This is a public spreadsheet by the way. Uh has lots of data. Also has data on the US government uh which I haven't really kept up with. the Biden the Trump administration changed uh the way they uh publish numbers.

[00:26:10]Hold on. I should have more data here.

[00:26:14]I can swear I put in more than 2025, but I'm having trouble getting a lot of these values because they changed the the Trump administration changed how these websites provide information and I haven't had, you know, the a week of time necessary to dig into it. They completely altered like how to get all this data. So, I 2020 I should have 2025 data in here though. I thought I did, but I don't. I I gota this summer I'll take the time and update this u and see how the Trump administration is doing.

[00:26:50]Uh the strategic oil reserve uh what was what's my last uh data point here?

[00:26:57]Oh, it's all the way in April. I got to update these numbers as well. Um curious to see what Trump is doing with the strategic oil reserve.

[00:27:08]All right, this episode has lasted long enough.

[00:27:12]I'll take a look at a few of your tickers that you asked and then uh keep an eye later today on this channel. Uh we I'm going to upload a video. It's not going to be live streamed. Uh but I will upload a video with the Financial Syndicate crew including Mark Wood. Uh whoa, VA, you're asking for a lot of tickers. Uh I don't know if I can do all of them.

[00:27:36]Uh Bryce is great. Did a bunch of hiking in Bryce. Did a bunch of hiking in Zion.

[00:27:40]I have so many videos I got to post to social media. I honestly don't care about social media anymore. I don't post anything these days. I don't post on Twitter these days. It It's just annoying. There just too many bots that complain.

[00:27:55]Uh I versus Bitcoin show a different picture. Um only shortterm. I um you would have to do some research on correlation to see if you can find a competitive advantage. Here I have Salana USD because that's what the boys were uh trading and uh Belaloo made over 20 grand I think. Let me see the screenshot.

[00:28:22]Yeah, he was up over 20 grand on a trade that was only going to cost him a few hundred bucks if he's wrong. Uh so congratulations to him. Uh I don't know if he exited that trade yet. I should ask him.

[00:28:37]Okay, let's look at a few tickers.

[00:28:39]Qur bullish chart at an MRI top at an MRI resistance line. I think this is going to go a lot higher in the near future.

[00:28:52]But if I was trading it today, I would not buy or take profit. I would probably not short, but I would not be going long today. I would wait for a green star candle.

[00:29:07]Uh oh, it popped after I said it looked good. Okay, good. Yeah, this is exactly where I would think the top would be.

[00:29:20]So, um I hope I said it would pop on this green star candle and I would wait for the next one.

[00:29:28]Okay. Oh, so that that was only one ticker. I thought all those caps were different tickers. Uh, what else we got?

[00:29:43]Mexican peso. Yeah, we can look at that.

[00:29:47]AMD.

[00:29:50]Oh, boy. Wow.

[00:29:53]Wow. Third consecutive MRI top. Yeah, that's a top. Uh this I would try to short. Uh I would take a swing at the short here.

[00:30:05]Uh I mean this thing needs to pull back.

[00:30:08]The chart looks very bullish.

[00:30:11]Uh MRI top on a weekly. Third consecutive MRI top on a daily. Uh still bullish on a monthly, but man, this thing needs to pull back. Wow.

[00:30:23]Look at AMD. Alltime high for AMD.

[00:30:26]What is AMD doing now? Are they like a Bitcoin holding company now?

[00:30:31]Um, I mean, I think a reasonable pullback would be to the 200 50 area, like as low as this area here.

[00:30:44]Let's see what that looks like on a weekly. Makes sense.

[00:30:49]Maybe even a smidge lower.

[00:30:53]Yeah, 260.

[00:30:55]And let's see what that looks like on a daily. Makes sense. Uh that is how far it can pull back and stay bullish. So yeah, if you're one of those people that likes to risk shorting in a bull market of uh of the overall market, though I think that's going to pull back as well. I mean, this is just an exponential rise and I am very bearish on AMD because like nothing goes up forever.

[00:31:29]S Oxs.

[00:31:32]Oh boy. Well, this is the opposite. Uh directional daily semiconductor bear. Um I never recommend trading 3x leverage ETFs. uh they are a suckers asset designed for you to lose all your money but for the opposite reasons of AMD uh this should rise.

[00:31:59]Uh what else we got?

[00:32:26]Next political stream, I don't know, probably this summer when I'm back at my cabin for a two-month reset, I'll do some political streams.

[00:32:38]Having is the year after next year. It's not next year. Having will be in 2028.

[00:32:47]Nine years following me. Awesome. Thank you, Zazo.

[00:32:54]Welcome back, brother.

[00:33:05]Bitcoin to gold ratio. I don't want to pull that up now. I don't have one. So, I'd have to create the chart.

[00:33:17]China's not buying US debt. They're not idiots.

[00:33:26]China is not China's not dumb enough that the US would concede on one China policy. Uh and they're not dumb enough to buy US debt.

[00:33:42]The Netherlands wants to make 36% unrealized gains. Any thoughts? Uh, Europe is a I don't go to Europe anymore for a reason. Um, Europe is turning into the Soviet Union of the 1950s. Good luck with that. If you live there, um, between that and their migrant crisis, I don't understand how anyone wants to live in Europe. Good luck.

[00:34:09]Bitcoin under 50K this year. I will I'm going to say I I don't think so. I'm going to take the uh I'm going to take the nay on that.

[00:34:24]Uh be careful with your 3x leverage ETFs. That's all I can say.

[00:34:29]Uh though AMD is equally as volatile, but at least AMD isn't designed to take your money.

[00:34:42]Tone, can you show your list of watching on Trading View? I have no idea how to do that.

[00:34:55]Is my website functioning? Not really.

[00:34:57]Uh, I had to switch servers and I'm not I haven't learned how to use Claude yet.

[00:35:02]Uh, my website is a bit of a mess. So, my website is currently not functioning, but I'm also not really selling anything. No one's really buying the MRI anyway. I'm not getting any new subscribers. Um, getting like one or two MRI sales per month, so it's not exactly life-changing money for me. Uh, so no, my website is currently not functioning.

[00:35:21]Uh, will it be functioning one day? I don't know. Maybe.

[00:35:25]So, those of you that have the MRI, great because it it's possible that uh one of two things will happen in the near future. Either I will make MRI free uh for everyone. Just remove the payroll alto together or no one is ever getting the MRI again. If I don't get my website back up and running, I'm not really in a rush to get my website up and running.

[00:35:46]It doesn't really do anything for anyone.

[00:35:50]Um all right, what was the last thing I needed to look at? out of Mexican tow and then we're going to call it a day.

[00:36:04]Here's the daily chart of the Mexican peso. The Mexican peso is continuing to strengthen, which is great for the people of Mexico. Uh harder if you're going there on vacation with your euros or dollars. And the Mexican peso looks very strong here and it looks like it will strengthen. All right. On this note, we're going to sneak a one last peak at the price of Bitcoin and then call it a day. Uh here we are on the 4hour chart. On the 1 hour chart, we are dropping just as I said when the show began. We are in a little bit of a short-term downturn.

[00:36:51]All right, guys. Thank you all for watching and see you all on the next one.

[00:37:03]RIP to Ugly Old Goat. Here is the video of his first ever appearance uh on YouTube without even his face. Uh I'm pretty much the one that the only reason why people know how ugly all goat is is because of me. Uh I can also say that for about a dozen plus other people in the space that are have become very popular. All right, thank you all for watching. See you all on the next one.

[00:37:32]RIP ugly.