BITCOIN PUMP CONTINUES!! WILL SUPPORT HOLD?? BREAKOUT OR FAKEOUT?! LIVE CRYPTO ANALYSIS!!!

本站添加: 2026-05-07

[00:00:05]Welcome to the crypto trading channel.

[00:00:07]My name is Stu. Well guys, Bitcoin continues trying to break out of the daily range and actually did manage to get slightly above my 115 resistance fib, which honestly it's a nice sign of strength. However, we are currently lacking on followth through on the breakout. So, we may not quite be out of the woods yet. That being said, as I've gone over in recent streams, I'm actually becoming cautiously bullish, playing more longs recently with not only Bitcoin, but also a handful of altcoins, but of course, still keeping my risk management very tight for now until we do have more of a confident breakout from either the bulls or the bears. Uh we do still have the lower time frame trend just uh basically staircasing higher with this micro higher highs confirming micro higher lows. So, as long as we hold this staircasing structure to the upside, I'm being cautiously optimistic for now. Uh, but yeah, obviously anything is possible. I can already see in the comments that people are expecting a big correction at this point. The fact that we got above my red box here, I have a feeling that any sort of a pullback will be short-lived. I have a feeling that things are actually going to be a little bit bullish for a few reasons I'm going to go over. But yeah, obviously that rejection is very possible, right? I don't want to get too too bullish at resistance like this. You guys know I've been warning about this resistance zone for well a few weeks at this point.

[00:01:34]Actually, even from when we were much lower, I was warning about these levels up here even a couple of months ago. But um yeah, like I said, at this point, obviously, it is dangerous and we have to basically keep our heads on a swivel here, but at this point in time, we are still holding the micro structure on the 4 hour. And by that, obviously, we have this little pause where we set a high and we have pushed higher with a higher high. So, our micro higher low on this trend is sitting around 80.6 80.7K.

[00:02:04]So, as long as we are holding this, things are still looking good. And I have basically no confirmations at this point why we would need to see a rejection. In fact, one thing that I am looking at is as far as retail long and short go, a lot of people on social media across the board are expecting basically treating this as a failed rally. So, or basically a sucker rally.

[00:02:30]So this entire seven months of downtrending price action we've seen uh people basically being bullish at resistance levels right and now that we're at resistance level we are actually seeing retail starting to short heavy. So this is after seven months of a downtrend um basically retail traders and that obviously includes myself that includes basically any traders in in the market uh other than market makers that sort of thing the big guys. Uh but as far as retail goes, um this is the first time that we're actually seeing retail step in and trying to short resistance.

[00:03:05]And that's one main reason why I feel like there will be some fuel in the tank that can actually get us through resistance. Um just looking at this indicator in the past, you guys, I mean, you can see it laid out here. The only time that we actually go for these rallies is when people are actually very bearish and putting their mouth to the or putting their money on the short side of things, right? And basically um going back to well basically start of April is where we saw this starting to flip again where retail was uh starting to get bearish finally after seven months of getting wrecked to the downside. They are now thinking that it's time to switch bearish and I personally just can't help but feel like you know just especially that it's not like this is flip-flopping around all too much. Yeah, it's bouncing around a little bit, but it's not really getting these big crosses or anything. For the most part, uh, it's looking quite stable with the retail shorts being the majority in the market. So, as long as this is able to continue, I don't see reason for a big rejection. Yes. I I mean, even right now, it's looking like the longs may be stepping in a little bit. We're seeing a little bit of FOMO posts and just FOMO in general. So, yeah, obviously, anything is possible.

[00:04:17]If these just end up doing a big cross like that and retail longs become the majority again, yeah, then I need to revisit the possibility that uh we could be going into a downtrend once again.

[00:04:29]However, at this point, I just have to assume that any sort of pullback is going to be brief and going to be uh just basically very short-lived as long as retail is willing to be short heavy.

[00:04:41]Right? Again, that can change, that can reverse at any time. I don't trade this indicator on its own. But when looking at it for confluence and uh does it make sense that we uh end up getting a rejection here kind of a thing. Well, I don't really see a recipe for a nasty rejection as long as the market is willing to be short heavy. So, and guys, obviously for those of you who are interested in just seeing way more examples of how I'm looking at market structure in general, uh some of my trade setups, strategies, warnings, and so on, be sure to scan the QR code to gain access to my private Telegram channel. My partners at Blofin are also giving my followers. These are just some nice calls uh very the very recent calls that I made. There was a Doge long in there, uh Bitcoin. basically just kind of walking how I was going through um approaching the market basically where I was looking at starting to uh basically taking more profits where I was getting cautious locking some in updating stops that sort of thing even as far as my more degenerate uh spot bags uh looking at meme coins low cap meme coins um as far as a spot bag even stuff like that.

[00:05:51]So, just kind of like I said, my overall thoughts on the market, but yeah, my partners at Blofen currently running the special deposit bonus for new and existing members who want to try trading on Blofin as well as gain free access to my VIP Telegram. So, they currently are running this promo until May 9th. So, there is just a few days left there. So, if that does interest you, you know what to do, my friends. But yeah, going back to Bitcoin here, looking at uh well, let's go back to the 4 hour where we were here. So, yeah, we're seeing a little bit of weakness, right? Uh being we broke the 115, I really would have loved to see us just get a nice breakout to the upside. Um but even this, it it just makes me think that even if we see a pullback, I wouldn't be too surprised if we do something like this. Quite honestly, if I pull that fib back, um the bearish fib setup that I had, um quite often what happens when we end up breaking the 115 is we end up seeing a pullback basically into my stubber fib.

[00:06:50]Although obviously it's from the opposite side, right? That's not actually a bullish super fib, but so often we see a pullback um kind of to that support, which would also line up with where the most immediate um 4hour swing to the upside began when we canceled the downtrend right here. So, uh, basically it would make a lot of sense to come back down to these levels, but I would really like to see the bulls hang on to 75K basically. Um, if I look over or actually even 78K, I would love to see us hold 78K, but yeah, if we drop a little bit further, we still do have that support just a little bit lower like 75K like I was talking about. But honestly, I would love to hold this order block that's on the daily um, sitting closer to 78K.

[00:07:36]So, all things that we just need to be cautious of, be aware of, guys, right?

[00:07:40]Because in trading, it's not necessarily just about making predictions, but also just um kind of if those predictions come to life, uh knowing how you're going to react more so, right? I always say that it's way more important in the game of trading to be able to react than to predict, right? So yeah, at this point, zooming out to the daily, um, as it's laid out here, we've obviously got above my daily range high, but we are still struggling with my red resistance box a little bit. Um, but honestly, even the fact on the daily that we got a couple of daily closes. This is I mean we have about an hour and 20 minutes left on this daily candle, but this may be the third c daily daily candle in a row that actually closes above my uh daily lower high on the seven-month downtrend resistance. So again, just the fact that it it's not like we got this one daily close above and then quickly got a rejection red candle losing that level and then flipping that resistance well basically back into resistance. We haven't got that right. We've actually been able to hold on to this resist support flip for a few days now. So again, that's just looking like a bit of a sign of strength to me. I'm not totally um I don't have total FOMO or anything like that. I'm very open to the idea of getting some sort of a reaction but just trying to keep a level head about things right now um as we get into these levels just because like I said there's some signs in the market that I just don't know how big of a pullback that we'll end up seeing if we do see one. So be careful out there guys. Do not throw risk management out the window. No matter how confident you are on either direction, please be careful out there. Have valid invalidations.

[00:09:26]Um, you know, basically anytime you enter a trade, you should have your entries lined up, your take-profits lined up, and your invalidation stop-loss lined up. If you do not have those three things, you do not have a valid trade setup. You are gambling, right? You need those things lined up.

[00:09:43]So, always have your invalidations in mind before you even take your position.

[00:09:48]But yeah, on the daily, I mean, that's looking not too bad for me at this point. One thing that is catching my eye that's a bit of a warning um is if I bring up where did I have it? Was it this guy? Yeah, the MDX liquidations indicator is notice that uh we are starting to get a lot of liquidations below us, right? And not just any liquidations, but they're starting to be more of those gold uh yellow bars below us. Those are higher leverage liquidation levels. So yeah, there is still some liquidity to the upside, but there's starting to be an awful lot below us. So I don't want to completely ignore that either. Obviously, nothing is guaranteed. We do not need to go and grab it anytime soon. We could just continue building liquidity below us and go for a short squeeze and then come grab it way later. Um that's very possible as all a as well. But um yeah, I just don't want to let my guard down at this point just because there is still mixed signals in the market and I know I've been saying that for a while you guys, but honestly that's just how I feel about the market. I do not have a very strong opinion one way or the other at this point. But starting like I said being a little bit cautiously optimistic at this point. Um taking a look at the weekly chart. I had mentioned this yesterday as well. the fact that obviously we have four days left on this weekly candle, but the fact that the RSI is so high compared to what it was back when we were trading at this resistance level. The fact that the RSI relative strength index is actually higher than when so we're seeing more strength on this indicator than we were tra when we were trading up at 95 to 98,000 US.

[00:11:30]Right? So that's an interesting divergence to uh be on the RSI as well.

[00:11:35]I still have a weird gut feeling that we are going to see something happen in September or October and see some sort of a crash where we end up uh setting a bottom around those times, but obviously there's so many whatifs between now and then. I have no idea if that's actually going to happen. It's starting to look less and less likely every week here.

[00:11:57]So, we're just going to have to see what happens. Basically, that would be a long time away from now anyways.

[00:12:04]Um, yeah. So, at this point, uh, I just want to take a look at a few altcoins. And guys, if uh, of course, if you guys do appreciate my level-headed approach, just looking at charts for what they are and, um, just giving my my best ability, just um, analyzing the charts and showing you what I am seeing and what the market structure is doing rather than the FOMO, rather than the FUD, just looking at charts for what they are. Do me a favor, smash the like button, subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. Um, and yeah, taking a look at a few altcoins, right? Ethereum, we did get a push right up to that lower high resistance that I had mapped out. Um, well, basically since we were trading down here, I was warning about the possibility of a resistance uh test up here. I'm not in an Ethereum trade myself. Um, but nice to see that we did get that nice rally. But yeah, obviously when we get the resistance retest, when we have structure like that, we just need to be careful, right? I'm not overly wanting to be shorting at this point, just mainly because of the long short, honestly. Um, but yeah, with structure like this, we just need to be careful when we retest resistance, right? We have a low, a lower low. The highest point between the two is here at about 2422.

[00:13:21]And that's obviously where we ended up getting our rejection so far, right? So, if you did end up taking a short on that, I would consider uh quickly taking some profits and updating stop- losses just to reduce risk from this market just because like I said, it's a it's a risky time in the market in my opinion.

[00:13:38]But yeah, nice to see that. That is basic market structure so far. If we got rejected here, at least it makes sense in the charts. Um I just well yeah obviously I never did take that trade but Solana Salana not looking too bad as well. Um this is just the five minute here but uh on the 4 hour it actually looks very similar to Ethereum but yeah on the fivem minute we still have the Oracle Pro Plus indicator pushing us to the upside. We've had a very nice trend with this indicator since basically down around84 $85 and currently we still have that support. Now, obviously, we had a bit of a rejection from up here. There is actually a stubber fib in play. I can just tell with an eyeball right now that we did. Um, however, I think it's already played out. Let me just check if we pull a bearish fib from our reversal there. Yeah. So, notice we ended up uh actually a few times now. We have tested the 786 several times, but we did actually get it to play out once, right?

[00:14:36]The first test on the 786 did come down and hit the 0.5 target. no 214 target yet, but um we'll have to see if that ends up happening. But so far, yeah, just the fact that we still have that indicator support, I don't want to be too bearish on this kind of a a setup.

[00:14:54]Just again, the fact that it's already played out once as well. That just adds a little bit of risk to be taking that short once again. So, careful with that.

[00:15:03]Uh hype, very much the same thing. Um, like I was showing in in my uh recent stream as well as just talking about it in the VIP Telegram there. Uh, basically I had mentioned that I was taking some more profits because we did end up testing my resistance and that's obviously this purple box up here. So that would be the bigger stubber fib resistance, something like that. So to see a rejection there, I I do have my concerns with this kind of structure because not only did we get a rejection from that stubber fib pocket, but we also ended up taking out this micro higher low on the trend. So it's very possible if we get a bounce that we could just be um basically getting a retest of this order block for example or even just a little bit higher and going up getting some sort of a swing fail, a stubber fib, whatever.

[00:15:57]But hype has been performing quite well recently. I still have about 30% of my long open from down here. Um, but obviously, yeah, I have paid myself a bunch on the way because that's basically the way I'm playing this market right now is like I said, I don't have an overly strong opinion whether it's bullish or bearish at this point.

[00:16:17]I'm more so looking at setups that I'm comfortable with and quickly removing my risk from the markets, quickly. um basically taking some profits off my positions and stuff like that. So, at this point, I'm just going to let that run with a break even stop at this point as well. Pepe is one that um I am interested in. I'm seeing a little bit of weakness here now. Um just the fact that again we lost some micro structure. So, we could we even lost this order block here. So if we end up coming back up and retesting it, we would have a little bit of resistance confluence, right? We have that order block lining up with a stuber fib just above it basically. So um be careful if we do get a bounce here. Uh what kind of structure? What can I find?

[00:17:07]Um, I would love to see a 4hour buy signal come in on the Oracle Pro indicator with Pepe because a lot of coins that end up getting this tight consolidation sideways uh while holding above the green indicator here. Um, a lot of times with the buy signal included with that, you will get a nice pop to the upside. Seen it on several coins recently and uh that is one thing that I would like to see, but unfortunately we have not got that yet.

[00:17:38]Um, as far as Yeah, it's it's a tough one right now. This structure is actually very messy. The fact that I was hoping that I could end up pulling a fib from down here, a bullish one, just because um the fact that we have this high and this higher high, but technically since there was uh this little micro structure break up here, right, a high and a slightly higher high, therefore we lost that level. And look where we're struggling with resistance so far is that old support level. So again, it's just a little bit messy there. I don't really have a clean point for a bullish super fib at this point unless we get a nasty rejection and we can uh basically take a pull of the of the full range at this point. Um then yeah, there would be potential support down there. But as far as the 4 hour goes, I think it's uh basically we're better off looking at shorter time frames on something like that. So that is one that I'm going to have my eye on in the VIP uh moving forward as well. Doge is another one. I did end up playing a little bit of a long on that one as well. Um where was that? This guy right here. Basically, I was warning that uh the Oracle indicator support was just below the price. So, I ended up taking a bit of a long and uh it ran overnight a little bit. Nothing too crazy, but yeah, basically ended up taking profits on a quarter of my position and then the rest got stopped at break even. We just ended up dumping to the downside there. So, but Doge is one that I am interested in as well.

[00:19:12]Unfortunately, has that messy structure on the 4 hour. So, that gives me uh it it was very nice before we had that last little push and fake out. we would have had a very nice stubber pip fib pulled from this level down here. Um, unfortunately, we have to be careful with that just because the structure got a little bit messy. Unfortunately, it is what it is. But I do love to see that this indicator has that support curling up to the upside. So, maybe we're just going to end up retesting that, kind of coming back down to some moving averages and that sort of thing. Uh, but Doge is another one that I'm quite interested in moving forward. As far as memecoins, you guys know my uh my high-risk um basically very high-risk memecoin, low cap, currently sitting at about a $50 million market cap is Trollcoin. I mean, I was warning about this when we ended up smashing through the daily downtrend. And basically, even at this point, we're seeing a little bit of a pullback, but that is looking like a very nice breakout. And as well, even if this coin does end up pulling back quite far, we do have bullish structure, right? And that could shake a lot of people out because uh basically even where we are at right now to come back down to the stubber fib would basically be a getting cut in half, right? And that's still very healthy price action.

[00:20:34]It's just that unfortunately when we get that extreme volatility like that, that goes for both ways, right? If there's a big breakout to the upside, chances are you don't have a ton of structure um to support the price if you start going back down. Notice that there is literally nothing in this whole zone here. So, if we do end up losing this support, it's possible we could take a further tumble, but as far as the actual uptrend goes here. I mean, this thing just looks like it's just shattered a ton of very important structure and uh we're going to have to see what happens there. But, yeah, that's obviously been my meme coin of choice for quite a while. I was really loading up right at the bottom. So, I got kind of lucky with that. But, basically, as we were consolidating in these tighter ranges, I was buying the crap out of uh Stuber Fibs in those levels. So, can't complain with that one. That one has been an absolute printer this week. Um, definitely my biggest gains of uh of the week have come from this guy here. And that's just spot that I am not trading this with leverage or anything like that. So, very cool. But um yeah, as far as Bitcoin goes, like I said, we still are holding this structure so far. Even looking at the one hour here. Um this is basically the bullish suber we have right now. It has already played out once, right? The fact that we had this high, we had a higher high, confirmed higher low. We came down, pulled back to the 786, and we did test the 0.5 fib already. So, it's possible that bullish move has already played out. But again, support is support until it's broken. Uh my average entry on my current Bitcoin long since I added to it last night is sitting at $80,230.

[00:22:12]This white dotted line down here. So at this point being I've taken profits off it, I added back in. I'm able to keep my stop loss at break even and or even in a small profit. I have mine at break even, but that remains a valid invalidation level because it's giving a little breathing room past my 115. Right? So, if we end up dropping below that, then I'm going to lose some faith in my Bitcoin long uh running from there. And especially if we drop out of this red box and like I said on the daily, that 78K level, if we drop that, then I have bigger concerns with what's going on.

[00:22:47]But so far, support is support until it is broken, my friends. Um, but yeah, anyways, guys, I think that's about all I really wanted to go over today quickly. So, one last time, if you appreciate these market updates, my level-headed approach looking at market structure, please do me a favor, hit that like button, subscribe to the channel if you haven't, and just as a reminder for those of you who are interested in uh checking out my private Telegram channel. Like I said, Below Fin is currently running this special offer for my followers, new and existing. Uh basically, a special deposit bonus. So, if that is something that interests you, scan the QR code for more of my thoughts on the market. And with that, I'm out.

[00:23:34]Stay safe, my friends. Thank you so much for watching once again. Have a fantastic rest of your day. Peace out.