Market Reversal Coming ? The Hidden Global Shifts | Stock Market Weekly Review | Alok Jain

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:01]Hi folks, welcome to the weekend investing stock market weekly review. In this report, we take a look at the past happenings of the last week. How different parts of the market behaved, what is the dynamics inside each segment in the market. We also will go over uh some of the research that we have done uh in this week. So in this week we shared these research pieces with you on our blog with our through our newsletter. A lot of uh learning and knowledge based uh articles can be read right there. Disclaimer as always please read fully and only then move forward in the video and do subscribe to our channel if you are a regular viewer.

[00:00:36]This uh episodes of the weekly review gives you a very nice uh weekly coverage of what's happening in the markets.

[00:00:42]Nifty down 0.72% this week. It would not have been even this much had we don't had we not had the scare of uh deficient rainfall and the MSCI uh churn that happened on Friday. we probably could have been either flat or slightly positive. The news from the warfront has been reasonable uh in the sense of u there being more negotiations happening.

[00:01:06]So there is no u current uh no engagement on the war front. Oil prices have pulled off. So whatever had deviated during or in in in line with the scene of the war is now coming back to normal gradually. Um so that is a sort of a good development from that front. S&P 500 continues to rally very hard 1.43% again up this week you can see uh especially since end of March uh the markets there have really run up from 6,300 to almost 7500. So 20% jump has come in just over a month and a half or perhaps just now about two months now. So the US market remains very very strong. Gold has completely gone flat minus 0.08% 08% on the uh INR rate. This is despite the fact that the duties were increased from 6% to 15% otherwise we would have been lower. Uh 15937 is the official rate. In the markets the rates that have been quoted are 7 to 8,000 um rupees per 10 g lower than this. Uh macropulse print crude oil you can see the chart coming off very nicely 12% off in just this week. That's a big cool off on crude oil. USDNR also down by 0.7%.

[00:02:22]Uh one week ago it was 9568 we even closed at below 95. Uh Bren already mentioned 11.9% down. India VIX is also down by almost 9% and the dollar index has also been slipping down at 98.94.

[00:02:39]In the global indices overview, this is a very unique chart which compares all markets in dollar terms with each other.

[00:02:45]This week again belongs to South Korea.

[00:02:47]I mean South Korea has just gone uh ballistic this year. Last one year returns is 186%. Of course it is very very concentrated towards one or two companies but nevertheless a market going up 186% is unfathomable in the Indian context. Imagine if Nifty were to triple in one year. That is the kind of situation uh South Korea is witnessing.

[00:03:07]Nikai up 4.5% this week and you also had NASDAQ go up 2.4%. Uh Brazil lost 1.7 along with Hen. Rest of the markets were pretty much flattish for this week. Uh in the global indexes momentum score uh South Korea remains at the top then Japan and then the US markets. US markets used to be in the bottom one/3 till couple of months back they have now climbed up. India markets have remained at the bottom. Uh Hen has always been at the bottom for since many years. Uh and UK and France are also towards the bottom. What is improving certainly is Australia and what is also improving is Nifty 500 in this last one week. On the benchmark indices overview you can see Nifty not going anywhere. Nifty 500 absolutely flat midcap absolutely flat but there was a small uptick in small caps and Nifty next 50 if we were to look for any kind of upticks. And within the markets you can see media gained the most at 2.5% this week. Not a very big gain actually. PSU banks at 1.9%, energy at 1.6% along with MNC stocks. Oil and gas lost a percent and a half along with FMCG. So FMCG stocks after this rainfall scare uh perhaps are under the most pressure. Uh you know big names like Nikkusan, Lever, ITC are all falling. U CPSC is down 2%. Capital market stocks also losing ground. Most of the exchanges are losing ground whether it is MCX, BAC, IEX etc. In the sectoral momentum, metals remain in the top ranking at uh the top rank. Energy is second. Capital market which was doing really well has suddenly slumped and commodities is at number four. What's coming up is PSU banks and media which is which has done this very well this week and what's really uh changing its uh recent performance is capital markets, central PS, oil and gas and FMCG. It on the other hand which has been resigned to the last uh rank is coming back on the very short term is at rank number eight on the weekly right here. So banking, financial, IT are at the bottom, metals, commodities and uh energy are at the top. That is the sort of sector rotation that is happening. Weekly advanced decline stats, most of the indices are at 50/50 but nifty next 50 performing exceptionally well in advances at 64% stocks in nifty next 50 advancing to only 36% declines. If you see on a slab- wise basis the first 50 stocks absolutely flat the 51 to 100 stock on average move 2.2%. Then you have other slabs also mostly in the green 700th stock the the range is at minus 1.6% 6% and.9% in negative over a 3-month period. Now pretty much the entire market is in the green except for the micro caps going forward.

[00:05:59]Percentage of stocks outperforming benchmarks this last one week has been poor performance across the board. Uh nearly 50% only stocks outperforming benchmark. So half the stocks are outperforming the benchmark, half the stocks are underperforming the benchmark. But in small cap space only 40% stocks are outerforming the benchmark. So the small cap move is actually a concentrated move where only a few stocks are uh leading the market in bigger way. In the strength and weakness uh analysis we have a very decent near 40% stocks in all segments at golden cross. What is golden cross?

[00:06:32]When price uh of 50 DMA is greater than 200 DMA that is a golden cross that's a reasonable uh signal that the stock is strong. The on the contrary the death cross is the opposite and that is a reasonable signal that uh you know the stock should be avoided but to be in in in like clinically technically brutal strength space where price is greater than 25 DMA which is greater than 50 which is greater than 200 DMA which basically tells you that the trend and the uh and the and the change in the stock is very uh you can say smooth and fluent that only 18% stocks in nifty are in true brutal strength. this is where you want to be. So those nine stocks in Nifty50 is where you want to be. 26% of stocks in Nifty NX50 are also in brutal strength which is a decent number. Uh and others indices are near the 18 to 20% mark. Total weakness has gone down but still double digits in the top half of the market and single digits in the bottom half of the market. So this is telling you that the bottom half of the market is actually recovering well or better than the top half of the market.

[00:07:34]Some of the brutal weakness stocks in large C for instance are there on your screen. These are not bad stocks but right now is not the time to be invested in these stocks from a trend perspective.

[00:07:45]The trend check if we see the top uh let's say all sectors and say how many stocks how many percentage of stocks are above 200 DMA then the market barometer CNX 500 has only 44% stocks above 200 DMA. So it is still a weak market above about 60 or 70% you can really say that the market is doing well. below 50% certainly suggests that market is either flat or is tilted towards weakness.

[00:08:11]However, there are sectors where 80% of the stocks in those sectors are above the 200 EMA which indicate that the sector is doing well and good buy opportunities can be looked uh looked at in those sectors. And then there are sectors like IT, real estate, financial services where the number of stocks percentage of stocks above 200 DMA is very very low and that's where you will be hardressed to find a good trend buys in those sectors.

[00:08:38]Let's also look at the FID stat. So a big sell-off day of 21,000 crores by FIS on Friday is likely due to the uh MSCI rebalance. So MSCI is an index which most foreign funds follow. So if the index changes, there's a rebalance in the index. The funds also have to change their allocations accordingly and net it seems that there has been an outflow of 21,000 crores on that fund itself. Other previous four days were not too bad but still the selling continues from FIS. TI on the other hand uh you know bought significant part of what FIS were selling and have remained buyers in the past five sessions. So when we see the cumulative score you find that the last 30 days cumulative sell off is 78,000 crores by FIS and the cumulative buy is about 98,000 crores. So the balance between the two remains reasonably maintained and the fact remains that despite this balance the market is tending to move a bit down because the confidence is there that is will only come once f and resume their uh purchases inside of the week. This is on S&P 500 uh comparison rupee versus dollar terms. So when we see uh you know the comparison of S&P 500 CGR in dollar terms this year has been amazing but in even in rupee terms it would have been even more amazing because you know the rupee is falling versus the dollar and over 10 year period if the American market has delivered 14% in dollar terms it would have been equivalent of 18% in rupee terms over 20 year period if it was 9% it would be 13% in uh rupee terms so net net investing in the US markets at least some part of your corpus remains a desirable sort of an activity.

[00:10:24]Of course there are some irritants of TCS and different kind of taxation there but still I mean the kind of returns the American market has given uh you would be uh you know doing your portfolio a favor by allocating somewhere.

[00:10:38]If you wish to take a look at the weekend investing momentum model portfolios there's a link in the description. Uh go check them out. And uh that's the uh end of today's session.

[00:10:49]I hope you like the session and uh let's see uh where the market takes us uh next week going forward. Thanks. Bye.