This Bitcoin Rally has Convinced me That the BTC Bear Market is Officially Over! I'm Now Bullish!

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:04]those claiming, oh, the bull market, it's resumed. They've got a real Well, they've got several big problems, but one of their big problems is that uh according to Ethereum, uh that's not the case. Ethereum's getting a lower high and well, Bitcoin's making a higher high. They're diverging just like they did back over here. Right before Bitcoin turned down sharply and so did Ethereum right here. They diverged just like they did back in October at the top. Ethereum made a lower high just like back over here. Bitcoin peaked in January of 2025.

[00:00:42]Uh they diverged again. They have a history of diverging. Sometimes they top and bottom together like in April they bottom together. uh and in early February they bottomed together but often times uh they will diverge at turning points but not always. Here uh we have such a divergence where Ethereum is not moving to new highs. It's actually down right now while Bitcoin is higher. So so far you have a divergence between the two and that's a huge problem for this Bitcoin rally.

[00:01:21]This was the Ethereum daily chart here.

[00:01:24]By the way, the 4 hour chart, which I'll be showing you in this video later, and you might want to watch that because again, it's telling you that this rally is going to fail. Uh in the 4 hour time frame, we're getting a 913 count. We've gone overthrowing it just a little bit going into that 200 period and turning down off of it. U trying to get a topping till the daily time frame.

[00:01:43]That's likely going to be the case. So, 4hour chair to Bitcoin. What is interesting is while Bitcoin is making a new high, Ethereum is not. Ethereum is getting a topping tail. What looks to be a gravestone dogey at the moment. Series of topping tails here in the daily time frame. But you had a 913 count the daily time frame. Bitcoin does not have that.

[00:02:02]We did see it here form on Ethereum with this diversions. It's forming with Bitcoin.

[00:02:08]Another problem with the rally. We're ringing into a declining 200 period into this resistance area again 80,000 to this uh this 84,000 area and we're forming negative diversions on indicators all over the place. You've got it here on the awesome oscillator.

[00:02:26]You've got it on the MACD. You've got it on the money flow. You've got it on the rate of change. And some of them are triple bearish divergences. Here we have a simple divergence like the MACD. So again, remember I told you when we started this off, we had to break 74 to 75,000 and see my signals turn back to bearish. If these were going to act as a peak, the majority of my signals remain bullish and we turned back up and we moved into this resistance area just above these highs right here at 79,000.

[00:02:56]As I've said, we've seen some of the weekly signals turn back to bullish. But this week right here with this rally, major trending signals are trying to turn back up. If they by the end of the week those signals fail and we get rejection at the 200 period moving average that would be very bearish indeed. A few signals have turned back to bullish just much like what we had over here uh in the bare market rally over here. And again we've rallied up over here 46% here uh just u in the high 37% level just under 38%.

[00:03:26]Uh but again you're still in the negative region with the awesome oscillator here. Again, you're likely going to see a divergence or if this is a continuation of this much like what we had over here and we begin to see the bottom fall out of Bitcoin. Uh then this will take out that low right there just as we took out uh the low here and went and made new lows. I talked about how the RSI is now pushing back above 50.

[00:03:51]Well, you're not moving back up into the positive region on the MACD or the awesome oscillator in the weekly time frame. Once the rally fails, we'll test the 200 and probably the 300 week moving averages and we'll see what happens or do we try to carve out a bottom? Uh or again, do we get something like what we had over here where again flag gave us a continuation of of a much much bigger selloff even reached the 38.2 Fibonacci.

[00:04:21]We came to just underneath it. It's right there right below the 200E moving average. which are 50% is way down here at 44,000. So again, Bitcoin tops out and begins to reverse hard, the crowd with all their emotion will begin to yell back test of the trend line just like they did the last time back at the January peak right before Bitcoin collapsed 30 nearly 39%.

[00:04:47]So the bulls have some real problems.

[00:04:53]Please support the channel with the link directly below that allows me to be able to provide you this information. If you like my charts, you like my indicators, help me know that by supporting the channel. Call the link below to take you to a secured site. You can donate any amount you want. I just ask that you do that rather than uh have sponsors. I turn those offers down. The inst the uh exchanges would pay me a lot of money to send people there. I choose not to do that. How do I know they're not going to be the next exchange that goes under? I don't know that. I'm not here to sell you something. I'm here to talk about Bitcoin. So, but I need to hear from you in order to make that work. Take a moment and support the channel today. Uh again, the bulls have a major problem.

[00:05:29]Again, we're rallying up into a declining 200 period just like we did back over here. Uh and parameter uh here in the daily time frame. It went up towards the center line just as it did when we rallied up to the 200 just as we're doing right now. But then it rolled over and it went made new lows and this followed and rally and then this followed. coin collapsed nearly 80% again which oh that's absurd Bitcoin never does that hello reality check markets for Bitcoin they've lasted about a year and they've dropped 80 to 90% this is the smallest one at 78 1.5% people over here remember back over they're convinced this it was over and yet this followed you're going to see the same thing if Bitcoin's so bullish print parameter be moving into positive territory and remaining there as it did back over here and we'd be getting above the 200 period moving average as we did over here. This is not bullish. The 50 is still below the 200 and the 200 is still declining and you're rallying into a declining 200 period moving average.

[00:06:33]I predicted back when I predicted that Iran would shut this trade of Hormuse or mine it or both before the war ever started and I predicted it would go to crude oil. Had person after person tell me, "Oh, you don't understand geopolitical issues." and tell me how stupid I was for saying that. It ended up being right. And just like the people that told me this war wasn't going to happen, there would be a peace deal uh before it happened. Again, the same people now believe there's going to be this peace deal. I'm telling you, there's not going to be a peace deal.

[00:07:03]The same people that are telling me, "Oh, you don't understand geopolit you're great at charts, but you don't understand geopolitical issues." Well, then why have I been correct about that?

[00:07:12]And again, we're we're going to see the US resume combat operations and likely finish the job. People telling me that I don't understand geopolitical issues are the people that don't understand Iran. I understand Iran. They keep using the same playbook. They're not hard to figure out. All these people telling me, "Oh, you don't understand your political issues. There's going to be this peace deal." These people will be proven wrong. This will be proven to be a counter trend rally. We are getting today and yesterday we are getting backto-back signals topping signals here. Uh again we are at the upper uh band the Ballinger band just as we were back over here and back over here at the peak at 76,000 and peaks back over here and here at the upper band and back up at the top. these other tops that formed in July and in August. And you're seeing something very similar here. And we're seeing warning signs with bearish divergences forming.

[00:08:15]I'm talking about the war because again, it's likely going to move crude oil and it has been moving crude oil as I correctly predicted it would and it's going to move markets. Right now markets are rising have been rising on the narrative there's going to be this negotiated settlement of peace priced in is that there is not going to be a negotiated settlement of peace and once markets realize that when the US resumes combat operations they will begin to price that in and Bitcoin will drop dramatically and I believe we're going to take out the uh the uh 60,000 low and again the people tell me how bullish Bitcoin is and you going to be so sorry.

[00:08:57]Bitcoin's going to be at new highs soon and the rest of the hype and the hopium.

[00:09:01]Uh again, they're convinced 60,000's the bottom. These are the same people when I predicted 60,000 back after calling the day of the top back up here. These are the people that told me how stupid I was for for saying that there's no way we're going to go down to 60,000 and telling me how stupid I was for saying that. And yet I was right and they were wrong just because they're now telling me I'm wrong. telling us people telling us 60,000 is a bottom are the people that told us we were never going to 60,000 but we were going to 200 and 250,000 by the end of 2025.

[00:09:32]They're clueless to what's going on.

[00:09:35]They don't understand geopolitical issues and they don't understand Iran because they're believing a false narrative that is not going to happen right now. Oh, they're, you know, all over the media. Oh, there's they're close to a deal. And again, not going to happen. There's going to be a massive letdown. The US will resume you combat operations and it will rattle markets.

[00:10:02]And right now, right now, markets are rallying on expectation we're going to have this deal between the US and Iran.

[00:10:10]and Trump announced yesterday that uh he's ending the uh or pausing Project Freedom, which is the project to escort uh ships through the straight. And let me just say this, every proposal that Iran has made has not been a serious proposal. And again, their their tactic is stall, stall, stall, delay, delay, delay. And this is just another tactic. The conventional wisdom all over. getting a rally in markets yesterday, today, the conventional wisdom, there's going to be this deal. And I can tell you there's not going to be a deal. Iran's goal is to do what they keep doing and they keep using the same playbook. They sound like they're going to make this deal and they sound like they're getting closer and they say that they're going to make some concessions verbally and then when it comes down to it, they reject it. They keep doing the same thing. They did it back with the uh the uh negotiations before the nuclear uh strikes back in 2025 in the summer. They did it right before this war started.

[00:11:15]First they sound tough and then they start to make some concessions and then they walk it back. Then they sound tough again. Then they start making concessions and it's the same playbook.

[00:11:23]And we've been going on and on with these, you know, negotiations and it's all part of their tactic.

[00:11:31]stall, delay because the longer they stall and delay, they think the less likely that they can wait out Trump and the there'll be more political pressure on Trump, there'll be more, you know, more pain at the the the uh the gas pump, this war will become more and more unpopular. I don't think that Trump will have the stomach to finish the job.

[00:11:52]That's their strategy. No intention of abandoning abandoning their nuclear ambitions. They have no intention meeting all the demands that the United States is making. They had the the negotiations with the Obama administration. They dragged it out for, you know, over a year and a half. The Iranians are great at negotiating in wearing down their opponent and stalling and delaying. And you have to understand this. This is what they do.

[00:12:22]Uh the Trump administration has shown that they try to pursue diplomacy but then uh after so long they throw their hands up in despair and Trump's not afraid to use force. That's what's going to happen here. Again, the conventional wisdom right now is that oh, going to be this deal. And like I said, very soon you're going to see combat operations resume because I know that Iran will never ever agree to the demands that the United States is making. Iran believes that they can wake Trump out and therefore Trump will make concessions.

[00:13:00]So again, this is all part of a strategy. And again, conventional wisdom is, oh, there's going to be this deal.

[00:13:07]Let's, oh, here's a rally. Here we go.

[00:13:09]Again, stock market is about to see the rally come to a conclusion. Bitcoin is about to see the rally come to a conclusion.

[00:13:19]all over me of the social media all over X. I'm reading uh the the post by the Moonboys and they are just euphoric. The Moonboys are just euphoric right now. And again, this is what you get at COPs. And again, very good chance the US is probably going to go back to combat operations and that could happen this week or by this weekend. I don't think you get a deal with Iran. They've done this before. They come up, oh yeah, we're going to make these concessions.

[00:13:50]And then they don't follow through with them. The Iranians are master negotiators, and I think they think they can play Trump. Just like during the nuclear deal negotiations, they thought they could play the Obama administration, and they dragged those negotiations out for over a year and a half or so. I don't think they're going to be able to play Trump. I think he's going to back up everything he says as he's done. Guy is a businessman. He's a He wants a deal. He likes deals. I don't think he's going to get one. He thinks that if there's enough pressure on Iran that they'll cave and they'll they'll make a deal, which would be rational, which would be rational. But you're dealing with irrational people that have a radical ideology that they're not going to abandon. So, you have to understand that. Most people don't understand that. And I can I continue to tell you there's not going to be a deal that everybody thinks there's going to be a deal. Now that's all over social media are rallying on a you know the progress of an Iranian deal as oil prices fall. Yeah. After rallying up after a higher low 38% pulling back to the 50 period moving average again. Oil is going to end up going to new highs soon. What is what is Trump saying on social media? Trump's saying that Iran trying to put pressure on him. Iran will be bombed at a much higher level if it doesn't agree to a peace deal.

[00:15:12]Conventional wisdom proposals to end the Iran war are very likely in the coming days. Trump saying on social media, assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to what they've done in the past, they agree to stuff and then they walk it back and don't do it at the last minute. This is what they continue to do. Why would this time be any different? I'm saying if they assume assuming they're going to do what they they've said they've agreed to do perhaps a big assumption the already legendary epic fury will be at an end and the highly effective blockade will allow the straight of whor moose to be open to all including Iran if they don't agree the bombing starts and it will be sadly at a much higher level and intensity than it was before. Thank you for your attention on this matter. And then the president signs it. The conventional wisdom is we're going to have this deal. It's really likely going to be the outcome is the bombing's going to start and the war is going to come to a conclusion in the next 2 or 3 weeks.

[00:16:20]How long it's going to take them, but it's probably going to come to a conclusion with the US starting combat operations at probably at some point this week or by the weekend.

[00:16:34]Bitcoin. Bitcoin has rallied right up into the 200 period moving average. It's trying to get a topping tail at the moment, but there's many hours left in the trading sessions. It very well could have a topping tail uh by the end of the session. And again, herd believes it's a breakout. And again, you still have a bare flag. You're still rallying into resistance. You're still rallying into the 200 period moving average, a declining 200 period moving average.

[00:17:03]Bitcoin was up 2.31% at the highs of the session. Right now, it's up 1.1% at the moment, turning down off of the 200 period moving average. Again, 50 is still below the 200. They're very far apart.

[00:17:18]That's not bullish. You on February 5th and 6th that Bitcoin was going to bottom and rally to the 74,000 to 80,000 area.

[00:17:27]We've gone a little bit higher. 74,000 was the peak over here. I'm sorry, not the peak. the bottom over here which we came up to at the 74 to 76,000 area and I didn't draw that very straight 74 to 76,000 uh area and we stalled at 76,000 that was the uh uh bottoming tail and the close here at the April lows told you again I thought we had peaked right there we turned down but we couldn't break down below the support zone so I told you we're going to rally back up and I told you we're doing the same thing we did back over here we're rallying at the support zone zone either we're going to rally up to the trend line or the 100 and try to make a lower high or try to exceed those levels and make a higher high and if we did we could try to move towards the 80,000 area. I did not believe we would move above 80,000 but I was correct in warning you going to go higher here and then on this pullback that my signals remain bullish.

[00:18:24]We did not take out the 7475,000 area again just because I believe we're going to new lows. People have selective hearing and they only hear what they want to hear. Back over here I told you we're going to go to the 74 to 70 74 to 80,000 area. I tell you what I think. I told you right here, I thought we had a good shot of a peak right here. But then over here, I told you, uh-uh, we're bouncing off key support. We're going to go back up and test this high or get a lower high for a head and shoulders or go higher, try to upward boundary of the bare flag or maybe form a three drive still high and move towards the 80,000 area. Wrong about the 80,000 area holding. We've moved up into this resistance which again this low right here to into the 200 period the the lows over here the bottoming tail here and the low at 80,000 this is the resistance area around uh the 80,000 area. So again, this larger resistance zone did move back to it. And here we are testing the 200 period moving average. And again, looking at the posts on social media, the Boom Boys are just beside themselves. They are just so hyped up.

[00:19:34]And you're about to get a major rugpull here. You're still in a downtrend with a series of lower highs and lower lows.

[00:19:41]Still have a bare flag. You're still rallying into a declining 200 period moving average. You're still ringing into the resistance zone though you are in the upper end of the resistance zone.

[00:19:52]Coin has now risen uh just under 38%. Uh the bare market rally back as I talked about my last video uh the bare market rally was 42% uh and we reached the 50% retracement.

[00:20:06]Doesn't look like that's going to happen here. It looks like we're likely going to see rejection surrounding the 200 period here. We may have peaked out here with a 38 uh just under a 38% rally from this low. Again, bare market rallies are very deceptive.

[00:20:24]Everybody believed that the bottom was in over here and then we had this drop and again people believe that the bottom is in here because they base things on emotion. Everybody believed here that we had a breakout when we sold off it was over and we were breaking their ter trend line and back testing and back testing breaking support levels and uh and back testing them and the moving averages the 50 and the 100 period moving average. And again, I say in every single video, nearly every single video, the topping process, like back over here, the counter trend rallies, the pullbacks, the bottoming processes, they can take longer than we all think. This has gone on for 3 months. Today's uh May 6, so this has now gone on for 3 months.

[00:21:10]shopping process went on from July to October and it still didn't cause Bitcoin to reach 200 250,000 by the end of 2025. I got right now I got moonboy after moonboy telling me how the bears filled up for the bear trap and the bull trap was back up here. We're still in a downtrend. I talked about my last video again. I predicted that we would move to the 74 to 80,000 area, but because I still think we're going to take out this low, people tune things up. They don't hear that. I was wrong about 80,000 holding up. I was right back over here about not exceeding uh 98,900 and stalling at the 100 period moving average. I was wrong about 80,000 holding up, but I was right about the rally. And we've gone just a little bit higher, couple thousand dollars higher.

[00:21:58]people base things like right now people get very emotional the bears throwing in the towel been throwing in the towel the perma bulls moonboys they get all hyped up usually happens right before the rugpool because people base things on their emotions they can't step back and look at what's happening now again told you we were going to get a rally told you go up towards the 74 to 80,000 area we've gone a little bit higher nothing has changed The Mumbo is out there. This changes everything. This changes nothing. Again, uh we're still below the 200 period moving average. You're still rallying into resistance. How is this changing anything? Have a series of lower highs.

[00:22:42]You're still in a downtrend. The moon boys get all steered up and then they like to get the the herd all steered up.

[00:22:48]And again, this is why I shut shut down comments for right now until this move plays out.

[00:22:54]I don't want these moonboys influencing me. And again, you got to hear a lot of dumb talk from people right before they get wrecked. Like back over here in January, just like back over here at the top, just like back over here at the final exit point. I've shown you what needs to happen a couple videos back in order for things to turn back to bullish. And again, not over yet. And you're likely going to get rejection in this area and turn down sharply here.

[00:23:19]And we will likely see oil spike and the US do the complete opposite to what everybody thinks will happen and that is go back to combat operations and that will likely happen this week or by this weekend in all likelihood.

[00:23:33]The Trump administration continues to hold out hope for diplomacy and again they're pretty quick here. They're going to throw their hands up in despair because Iran will never ever make the necessary concessions and meet the demands that the the that the US is making. Their goal is to drag negotiations out, try to get the blockade removed.

[00:23:58]Now, we're rallying up back up to the 200 period moving average just like what we did back in the bare market back in 2022. But this bare market rally so far is weaker. It's just under 38% and the high 37,000% sorry the high 37% level just above the 38.2 Fibonacci of the entire decline. The 50% retracement is up here 87,000. If we stall under the 200 period, which I think we're going to, then either we're going to come back here and test this low right here for a higher low, drag out the bare market, rally further, and maybe go higher, or get rejection more likely and go back and take out this low over here at 60,000, have a more feeble, a weaker bare market rally than the past bare market rally. And again, people better be praying. The Moonboys have better pray. this isn't the bare market rally coming to a conclusion at the 200.

[00:24:55]If this is the bigger bare market rally, then we're going to get a continuation of this. Okay, I told you back up here, the Moo Boys when we're expanding the channel. The Moonboys have better pray after we broke this trend line and we went up, I told you we're expanding the channel. And I told you the Moonboys better pray that I'm wrong, that we're not expanding the channel because if we are, we're going to go down to again 60 to 63,000. And that's where we win. So uh rallying up into a declining 200 period moving average. Now Bitcoin on the risk model here, Bitcoin remains in a risk on uh uh a risk on phase here, but it's forming multiple points of negative diversions uh into major resistance into a 200 declining 200 period moving average. And you're forming is all over my indicators. And here with risk on, we're not moving to a new low. You're diverging. Price is moving higher, but risk on is getting a higher low. And again, also forming a divergence.

[00:26:00]Now, the herd, the moonboys, they've got another huge problem is again the fear greed index is suggesting that this is a counter trend rally. We're still below 50. We've got a reading of 46 right here at the moment. We've been unable to get above this 50 area here. We we've stalled right at it. Came right up to it. Reversed off of it. See, one of the problems with this rally is we're still holding consistently in the negative region below 50 on the fear crypto fear greed index. Again, our last rally to peak on January 14th, the last counter trend rally, we popped just above the 50 level and that uh terminated the counter trend rally and we again moved back and consistently remained below 50. Ever since the top after a multiple point divergence developed with between the fear greed index and Bitcoin, it broke support. We got the largest liquidation in history on October 10th and we had breaking of the trend line and the taking out of the 50 period and eventually the 50 dropping below the 200 later. But again, that pushed the fear greed index below 50 and it's been consistently there. Again, the pull-ups here with the final exit point to the 50 level, it marked a peak. The pull up here just above the 50 level, it marked the lower high. And here we are pulling up towards this 50 area and the 200 period moving average which a little hard to see. Here I have a trend line drawn at that same area. The bulls have a real big problem in that the behavior is that we've been consistently in the negative region just like what I talk about with the RSI in the weekly time frame like what I talk about with the pre parameter in the daily time frame.

[00:27:51]are in negative territory and the pull-ups to the center line have marked the end of the counter trend rallies throughout this decline. The final e the the final exit point so far and the lower high. It will likely do it here again. Well, I predicted back on February 5th and 6th that we would bottom that we would rally 74,000 to 80,000 installed there. We've gone a little bit higher. Nothing's changed.

[00:28:19]Again, it's nothing more than a counter trend rally, rallying up into resistance. Some of the weekly signals uh that I talked about in my video couple of days ago, I told you what has to happen to turn everything back to bullish. You got to clear the 200. Then you got to see all the signals turn bullish and then remain that way. But the week's not over. The week is still young. We're just starting out the week.

[00:28:41]Likely going to get a reversal here. And the signals that are trying to turn bullish in the weekly time frame to validate this will likely be cancelled out and you'll likely see the fear greed index get rejection here.

[00:28:55]P500 is forming multiple point divergences in the 60-minut time frame while Bitcoin in the 4hour time frame is forming multiple point divergences rallying up into the 200 period in the daily. Divergences are going to play out. They're designed to suck in more bulls before the rug pull happens.

[00:29:15]That's what the institutions do. The S&P and the daily is getting a 99 reversal signal today in the daily time frame.

[00:29:23]You could see a topping tail before the day ends on the S&P. NASDAQ got a 13 count. Both rallying into major resistance uh just as Bitcoin did back at the October top. As we rally, as we rally into the 200 200 period moving average in the daily time frame, you're forming bearish divergences, multiple point divergences, which lead to a reversal. Multiple point divergences uh usually lead to a reversal rather than just a pullback. Uh the hourly chart of Bitcoin, it's popped up above the previous highs over here, but you're slamming up into the 200 period moving average. you're forming these divergences which look to be now starting to play out. We we're up 2.31% at the moment with Bitcoin. We're up just around 1% here. So right now the push higher only gave us another reference point of a divergence. And I talked about in my previous updates that if we did try to go up to the 200 period, you might see that happen. You try to rally to the 200 period in the daily time frame, you might get another reference point of divergence on these intraday charts. And again, uh, we're getting the rally. The divergences are still present. The entire rally is going to end up, uh, being given back. In all likelihood, we're probably going to take out 60,000. We get a big bigger bare market rally towards a 50% retracement.

[00:30:45]But again, the 200 period is right now going to act as major resistance.

[00:30:51]And the moon boys, I heard they do, they do what they always do. They get all excited. Oh, yay. Yay. They get all excited about a counter trend rally completely ignore what what's going on with the main movement which is currently down. We're still on a downtrend still in a confirmed bare market.

[00:31:10]I told you again um could have a channel which is a bare flag that excludes the shadows down here on the daily and here on the 4hour time frame but we're overthrowing that area a little bit.

[00:31:22]That's the red here. Obviously the blue I had marked it uh here which we've overthrown that area. So again it's likely that we have the channel here and we'll probably close back below this red level by the end of the day. We did rally. We're turning down below it right now. But again, hello. You're still forming a multiple point negative divergence. You have a divergence here.

[00:31:41]The most recent price action. You have this larger divergence. Uh again, this was nothing more than a counter trend. I see no evidence of a bottom. And again, if this is the larger bare market rally, that could be very problematic. If it's a continuation, this is a bare market rally, the risk is we plow through major support between 49,000 and 50,000 once this bare market rally is done. And again, back in 2022, everybody was convinced the bare market rally was it.

[00:32:08]And you know, again, people that are clueless, the people that are perma bears, they become absolutely convinced.

[00:32:16]And if I permabulls, permabulls, can I say perma bears? Perma bulls, they become absol absolutely convinced. The perma bears, they think, "Oh, price just goes down." They they do the opposite of what the moon boys do. They think price just goes down and it never goes back up again. Prices go up, prices go down. You don't want to be in either one of these camps. You want to be objective. Burma bears are throwing in the towel. Get all depressed because they think that prices is going to continue after dropping nearly 39% that oh, it's just going to continue. And it doesn't work that way.

[00:32:47]We had a shot at a peak over here at 76,000. But then I told you we found support at the support zone. We're going to go back up. Get a lower high or a higher high. Move closer towards 80,000.

[00:32:57]Now, I did not think we'd move above 80,000. We did, but we're still in the resistance area. That's why I told you back over here, we were going to get a rally back up. And back over here, signals reverted back to bullish. And we were going to go back up and get a lower high or a higher high. As I say, these things can take longer than we all think. right here. I told you we had to take out 74 to 75,000 to have the sell off. We didn't do it. My signals consistently remain bullish. Few that did turn back to bearish with that reverted right back to bullish. Again, this is going to play out. Going to go back and test 60,000 and again probably take it out if the bare flag that we're overthrowing it. Have this rising wedge into the bare flag and we're getting an overthrow move there. Or if we include the shadows, you're you're you know, you could just connect uh this point here and this point uh right here, including the shadows, and we're right at that level. Seems to make a little more sense. I'll change that. Now, Bitcoin hit a high of 82,000 and turned. Right now, we're in the 81,000 range. I told you again, I thought 80,000 we would rally to 74 to 80,000, but I told you I didn't think we'd go above 80,000. We're slightly above that by a couple thousand. Again, it's designed to suck in more bulls before the rugpool happens. I told you in my last update that again, I thought we had a complex previously thought we had a complex correction, but with this push higher, uh looks more like a five leg push higher and a larger uh ABC 335 pattern. And again, the divergence not only here on the RSI, but down here on the MACD, you've got the divergence on pre parameter here in the 4hour time frame. Again, as we rally up into as Bitcoin rallies up into the 200 period moving average are forming multiple point divergences or simple divergences like here on the MACD. Uh, as I said, the RSI and the weekly time frames pulling up towards the 50 level. Again, this is where counter trends happen.

[00:34:57]You're still in the negative region. to stay of a 50/50 sell signal. Again, Bitcoin has in a confirmed bare market.

[00:35:02]As I told you back over here when we had two consecutive closes below the 50, which is uh below the green line right there. And I told you uh well, I predicted we bounced off the 100 period moving average. Told you we were going to go down to the 200 and again towards 60 to 63,000. Bitcoin has never ever bottomed out, gone and made new highs uh after confirming a bare market with two consecutive closes below the 50week moving average. Not first before tagging the 200 period moving average, the black line like we did back over here and the 300week moving average, but ne never before without tagging the 200E moving average. think with the next push down you're at least moving back towards the two and 300 week moving average and Q support here between 49,000 55,000 this is the bare market rally like what we had over here with the bare flag uh the risk is that you're now going to get this that's the risk continuation of this if this is the bare market rally bigger one again this is not bullish this is a counter trend and we have a winning streak on Bitcoin coin. That winning streak will likely end uh before the week ends. Week is still young. Look at some of these indicators. And again, Bitcoin rallying up towards the 200 trying to get I've drawn a parallel boundary here from this high with these lows excluding the shadow here. And again, we're just overthrowing that level. We overthrew it yesterday. Uh again, and let me just adjust that upper boundary of the rising wedge here as I did on the 4hour chart. And again, we've got a rising wedge into the 200 period moving average.

[00:36:47]The stochastic at extremes, the MACD forming a negative divergence. And up here, look at the rate of change. Well, the RSI is going slightly higher. Look at the rate of change. Rate of change is a really nice multiple point divergence with these recent highs right here. And again, we could see a topping tail by the end of the session. Right now it's trying to form it, but if you get a topping tail, you can get rejection right here. Again, the conventional wisdom is it's a breakout. Going to have this negotiated SETTLEMENT PIECE.

[00:37:17]EVERYBODY'S GOING TO PILE INTO BITCOIN.

[00:37:19]AGAIN, the same hype, the sameopium.

[00:37:22]Again, this is nothing more of a counter trend. Until proven otherwise, it's a counter trend. My signals are bullish and I've been going back and forth from bullish to bearish in this counter trend. But again, that's what happens.

[00:37:36]indicators burn bullish with counter trend rallies in the daily time frame.

[00:37:40]Doesn't mean the bottom's in. Doesn't mean the bare market rally or the bare market is over. We've likely got at least another 6 months of this for the 4-year cycle. Uh the bare markets have been about a year. I think it's going to end up going longer than that. I think it'll go into 2027. But today's May 6th, so we're about halfway through, just over halfway through this bare market.

[00:38:04]And we've dropped 52% just like we kicked out the last bare market. If this is the larger bare market rally, rather than trying to bottom out at the support levels I've talked about, if this is a continuation, look out below because it's going to get really ugly. So get ready for the