Nifty Stuck For 26 Days, Cracks 24,000! Top Technical Analysts Reveal What Happens Next | ET Now

[00:00:01]Welcome back and uh thanks for staying with us. We're joined by two technical analysts this afternoon. We have Kunal, of course, as always in studio and we have Himen as well uh with us. Uh let me start uh with quickly highlighting that there's pressure across the board in markets today. Uh 9/10 of a percent lower on the Nifty, so clearly evidently pressure there. But today is a little bit different in in so far as you're seeing pressure even on the broader markets. So you're seeing the small cap as well as mid cap indices under pressure. You're seeing IT as well as banks under pressure.

[00:00:33]Kunal, uh it's not looking pretty.

[00:00:36]Uh any silver lining?

[00:00:38]>> Yeah, I think uh so difficult to say a silver lining, but uh we've broken below some uh crucial barometers today on the indices. You know, we broke below the 24,000 mark. The Bank Nifty is uh on the verge of breaking 57,000 levels on the spot basis. You're looking at the market breadth almost 1:5, 1:2 uh 5 and 1/2 in terms of the advanced decline ratio, more in favor of declines, of course. So that I think is not a you know a rosy picture for the indices. And that too, I think, coming on the expiry week or the you know week where the market's going to the expiry is a bit of a uh you know a kind of a mixed signal. But then broadly, you know, when you go back you know 5 weeks or 6 weeks uh you know back, we've been trading into this band of 500 points broadly for the Nifty.

[00:01:23]23,758,800 as a support and 24,300 approximately as the resistance. So you know when you look at this on the day-to-day basis, yes, this you know 200-point drop on the Nifty looks to be a bit concerning. But then when you go back and look at over the last 4 or 5 weeks, we have been trading into this band. So maybe I think it's just about a routine correction for the indices.

[00:01:45]>> Mhm. Himen, um how do you look at the Nifty breaching the 24,000 mark? Do you think uh you know, with this we're going to see some kind of profit booking at this level now.

[00:01:58]>> Hi, very afternoon. Thank you for having me on the show.

[00:02:01]Well, like Kunal mentioned, 23,800 24,588. This is a 26th trading session in this range. We've gone nowhere. The VIX has been consistently below 14, which is good, but that hasn't resulted in any upside.

[00:02:16]So, yeah, if 23,800 breaks uh from a closing point of view, I think that would be a spot of bother. Otherwise, we've gone nowhere. It doesn't look like going anywhere. Brent is 94 and 1/2 dollars.

[00:02:28]Uh the rupee dollar is what? 96.50 52 54.

[00:02:34]Uh that's at highs. So, if crude and the dollar remain like this, equity markets aren't going anywhere.

[00:02:41]So, nothing has changed. Yes, but I'd repeat, if 23,800 breaks, I think we lose a few hundred points in a jiffy. But, we need a closing, and that still doesn't look like happening.

[00:02:53]>> Um What kind of trade are you going to do in this market? Fix?

[00:02:57]>> So, no trade on the indices, frankly, because I think we're stuck in this 500-point band 26 days as Himanshu was saying we were discussing this in the morning that it's almost fifth week where the markets have been stuck in this range. It's difficult to initiate any index trade, but yeah, stock-specific, there are individual names which you start to look attractive. Balrampur Chini, I think is something which has come back on the radar in terms of a potential breakout above 600-620 mark where the stock is trading right now. So, that could be one stock which I would believe uh could be a good bet at the current level. 680 is where I would place a target for the stock price, stop loss at 590. The second would be buying Adani Power. Even this stock, I think it was trying to make a a comeback. The mean reversion seems to have completed for the stock around 220 levels. Uh risk reward attractive. Would look at the target of 238, stop loss at 208.

[00:03:44]>> Hm. Okay. Uh plenty of breaks unfortunately that we're going to have to take uh over the course of the next maybe 15 minutes. Need to slip into one, come back, take that breather, come back, ask him in for his stock calls.

[00:03:58]Well, if it's not a nifty market, then it's a stock specific market. We take those calls on the other side.

[00:04:26]>> I'm back. You're watching Closing Bell and numbers are coming thick and fast.

[00:04:29]You have now the SRF numbers coming in.

[00:04:32]Profit up handsomely. Revenue is up at 5,000 crores. It's up 31.8% and if you look at the profits, it's up over 70% in today's means that's for the first quarter EBITDA at 1237 crores and profit 759 up 75.7% and the stock is down nearly 2.9% in today's trade. So, a lot of stuff is happening.

[00:04:58]>> It's a beat on expectations.

[00:05:00]You just asked me whether the numbers was the expectations. What's the expectations we had? An EBITDA estimate of around 918 crore. The EBITDA number has come in at 1237 crore. So, it's a very sound beat, frankly. And the PAT number was expected to come in at around 515 odd crore. It's a It's a very, very solid beat. I'm just going to quickly compute the margins and try and give you a sense as to whether it's a margin beat or it's a margin miss. That's That's probably one of the factors which we need to quickly consider before we take a call as to whether >> But if the stock is reacting the stock is reacting negatively after the numbers. So, it seems the street is was expecting much more from the numbers there for SRF there. So, maybe some part of it was built in Sajid. The run up also has been good. 21 and 1/2% was the margin estimated coming at 24 and 1/2.

[00:05:53]So, it's a clear beat in that sense in terms of the numbers for SRF.

[00:06:00]Also, we can pull up maybe the the 3-month chart on SRF quickly.

[00:06:04]Kunal, what's it looking like on charts SRF?

[00:06:07]>> The stock had been stuck into a trading range. You know, we were looking at 2700 as a support for SRF for the last 3 months two and a half of months. And on the upside 2880 as a major band of resistance. So, it looks like the the stock has now come back or revisited this range. We really need a breakout above those 2880 mark for SRF for the stock to call in you know for a major reversal on the upside. There were shades of you know intraday breaks or intra week breaks for the stock above those levels.

[00:06:37]But, we've yet to see a major close above those levels. So, we'll wait for a point where the stock closes above 2900 mark. That could be a good zone where the stock may indicate of coming out of this major consolidation band.

[00:06:50]>> Mhm. Okay. Hemen, just want to quickly try and also address some of the other earnings which have come our way. There's Mahindra Holidays.

[00:07:00]The stock is down 7% on the back of that on the back of those numbers. There's I finance which has been a big mover, right?

[00:07:08]Both ways. I mean on the way up as well as now on the way down. What's happening on a couple of those counters if you can give us a perspective?

[00:07:19]>> Oh, Harshav, Mahindra Holidays has been in a downtrend since the last 2 years. Nothing has changed.

[00:07:26]It continues to post lower tops, lower bottoms.

[00:07:29]Still it don't stabilize, form a base, see a reversal coming.

[00:07:33]I don't think it looks like doing anything in a jiffy.

[00:07:37]So, the weakness continues. Yes.

[00:07:39]There is a swing low at around the 4th of June at around 208. Now, that is going to act as a support, I believe.

[00:07:48]That breaks a week three another 7 8% gone, so nothing changes was weak is weak remains weak.

[00:07:57]>> And what about BPCL very quickly I mean on charts?

[00:08:01]>> Uh sorry, can you repeat the stock?

[00:08:02]>> BPCL BPCL because those numbers also coming our way.

[00:08:06]>> Well, I won't I wouldn't like to second guess the numbers, but on the technical parameters are we doing an ascending triangle? 320 is important. We need a weekly close above this. There's also the 55 week exponential moving average. Downside up here is limited, but yes if it's a if it's a result day, I would avoid saying anything, but yeah. But we need a close above 320 on the weekly chart if things are going to improve.

[00:08:30]As of now on charts, it looks more positive than negative.

[00:08:35]>> Negative uh the numbers look quite good, frankly, BPCL versus what the estimates were. We need to slip in a very short break, come back, continue talking. Lots of stocks to focus on. We'll come back and continue that chat with both Himen as well as Kunal.

[00:09:22]All right, welcome back and you know, some of the banking names in focus.

[00:09:27]Kunal, would you play a trade on any of the banks at this point of time?

[00:09:31]>> Uh not really. I think only IndusInd Bank is the one which is strongest uh of the lot uh specifically in the larger cap names so far. The second is of course ICICI Bank. That's a stock which has been holding on to that 1400 1440 levels. The only two names which so far are the stronger ones in terms of the private sector banking stocks. So if I have to take a bet, I would probably prefer you know taking a bet over here for these two names or either of these two names.

[00:09:56]>> Okay. What about some of the big movers of the day and I mean I love your view on something like a Bandhan.

[00:10:05]>> Well, it's a frankly speaking a tremendous underperformance Harsh if you see.

[00:10:14]I mean the performance has been abysmal.

[00:10:18]It peaked at a high of 741 18 August 18 and now we are 8 years down the line.

[00:10:25]The Bank Nifty has made a new high. Many of the banks have made all time highs and this stock continues to go nowhere.

[00:10:32]Just when things were looking good and there seemed to be a longer term turnaround at play. Here it gets hammered once again. There's a big bearish gap. It's going to provide resistance.

[00:10:42]I think one should avoid this stock because after 8 years if he's doing nothing, I I don't know. It's like waiting for for Godot. So it's weak and I I mean only a monthly close above 210 220 would mean there is some spark in life and the first technical green shoots come in Harsh.