The Greenville SC Housing Market Is Splitting in TWO

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]The Greenville housing market just split into two and most buyers and sellers have no idea which side they are on.

[00:00:07]While some houses sell in a single weekend with multiple offers, others sit until they expire.

[00:00:13]>> [music] >> So today, I'm going to tell you what's going on right now and how that feels very different from anything that we've seen before. Stay until the end because the new construction trap alone could save you from a very expensive mistake.

[00:00:27]As always, my friends, my name is Will Sawyer, your friend in real estate here in the upstate of South Carolina. And if you are thinking about transacting real estate in the Greenville, South Carolina area, I have helped hundreds of families with their real estate transactions and I would love to add you to our client family. So please do me a favor, email me at my email below or shoot me a text at my cell phone number below. I would love to help you here in the upstate.

[00:00:52]Okay, so if you look at the numbers, Greenville doesn't match what you're seeing in the national headlines of doom and gloom and housing correction. But it is showing us something interesting and trivial. Pending sales are up a bit so far this year. The average sales price is up about 2.9% year-over-year through quarter one. So on the surface, that looks like a market that's doing just fine. But once you dig a little deeper, things start to shift. When you look at the bigger picture, sales across the greater Greenville market are actually slipping slightly. The number of closed units in our market at the end of Q1 year-over-year is down 3.4%.

[00:01:31]So overall, oddly enough, we are seeing prices continue to slowly climb, but there's a stall in sales, which is puzzling. And at the same time, days on market has increased 11% year-over-year and inventory sitting on the market, well, that's up about 12% year-over-year with more than 5,700 active residential listings right now. And that's one of the biggest supply increases we've seen in over 5 years. But, when you see the average price going up when the median price stays steady, that's where this really starts to split. The higher end is still moving. The middle and lower resale segments are feeling the pressure. And once you see that divide, everything else is going to make a lot of sense. So, let's start with the side of the market that's feeling some pressure right now. So, if a home is brought to market and it isn't crisp and it isn't priced well, it is not going to sell. Buyers are rushing to quality this year and we are seeing it with a decrease in sales, an increase in inventories of home for sale. But, what is fascinating still is that buyers are still willing to pay a premium for a well-presented and well-priced home that packs a lot of value for them.

[00:02:42]Otherwise, they are going to let a home pass idly by and watch its days on market increase day after day after day after day and see how good of a deal they can actually get. The majority of buyers right now don't want to take on extra projects after closing. They want something that is completely move-in ready. Sure, they are willing to paint, but ask a buyer to redo bathrooms, paint the home, redo a kitchen, and pay a premium, forget about it. Sellers asking that of buyers in today's market are living in fantasy land. They're living in the market of years past and those are the homes that you see sit month after month after month. When many buyers are already stretching to make the monthly payment work at rates that just have recently gone up again, adding a significant renovation on top of that just doesn't make sense for most people.

[00:03:35][music] So, what happens is pretty simple. Move-in ready homes get the attention and anything that needs work just sits longer than sellers expect.

[00:03:44]I'm seeing it both as a buyer's agent working with my buyers and I'm also seeing it as a listing agent working with my sellers. There's a friction between buyers and sellers in today's market, especially for homes that need attention after closing. Sellers are thinking, "Oh, it's not that big of a deal. My home is X amount of square feet, so it should sell for X price based on the price per square foot that my neighbor Sally's house sold for." And buyers are pushing back saying, "Yeah, but your house isn't neighbor Sally's house. Hers is moving ready, and I'm going to have to redo a kitchen and paint the entire house when I move into yours." And I'll show you how to use all of that to your advantage, and we're going to get to a buyer and seller strategy here in a little bit. So, stick around. Now, the second area that's struggling in a meaningful way are homes around new construction communities where builders are still selling inventory. This is where a lot of people get tripped up. So, if you bought a new construction home in the last, say, 2 to 3 years in places like Piedmont, Greer, or parts of Simpsonville, and Fountain Inn, there's a good chance there are still new homes being built around you.

[00:04:50]And because of that, the appreciation isn't what most people expect. And here's what's going on behind the scenes. Builders set a list price, but they stack in incentives that you don't always see. So, for example, a home might be listed and sold at $450,000, but if the builder gives a $20,000 credit, the effective sales price that an appraiser uses is $430,000, but the public sees a sales price of $450,000.

[00:05:17]The sales data shows 450,000 as the sales price, and that throws off how people think about value in the neighborhood. In the past, builders would raise prices 2 to 3% every 2 to 3 to 4 sales when things were moving swiftly. Right now, with more inventory and slower sales, those increases aren't happening the same way in some of these new construction communities. And keep in mind, new construction makes up roughly 37% of our active inventory. And this is what is publicly available, so the true number is probably closer to 40 to 42% of our active inventory. Builders are controlling a massive supply of the market, and they are cornering the market in some respects by offering such massive incentives to their buyers. Not only are they offering thousands of dollars in closing costs, but they're also offering better than market rates, brand new appliances free of charge, the list goes on and on and on. They are making a essentially better offer than most sellers who are asking for top dollar for their used and heavily lived-in home that they are unwilling to present like a model home when they bring it to market. So, these folks that recently bought homes in these new construction communities who have to sell earlier than expected, keep in mind that appreciation across the market is sitting in the low single digits, and that's not enough to cover selling costs if you are on a short timeline. If you're in one of these areas, you really want to plan on holding your home for at least 5 years to build any type of foundation of equity. That's the cooling side of this market, because once you flip over to the other side, it feels completely different, and the gap between the two is way bigger than most people expect. But before we move on, if you already own a home in Greenville, this is the moment to check your numbers. Go to willsollierrelty.com/sell-with-me, and I'll send you a free no pressure home valuation so you know exactly where you stand. Now, back to the booming side of the market right now. So, let's flip this over to the other side of the market. While homes in some pockets of town and homes in certain conditions are lasting months on the market, homes in, for example, the 29681 zip code, which covers Simpsonville and parts of the Five Forks area, are going pending significantly faster. Same metro, different pace, and for four main reasons, really. First is convenience.

[00:07:45]The areas where you can get to restaurants, coffee shops, shopping, and grocery stores within 5 to 10 minutes of your front door, these areas are going to be getting the most buyer attention.

[00:07:55]They're also pulling in buyers from places like Charlotte, Atlanta, and the Northeast. People coming from bigger cities see the lifestyle here, and they move fast when they find a great home at a fair price. Second is schools. School quality has a big impact on long-term home value, even for buyers without kids. Regardless of if you have kids or not, schools should be important.

[00:08:20]Greenville County just hit over a 90% graduation for the 2024-2025 school year, which is a strong number overall, but certain elementary schools are getting most of the attention here, like Bells Crossing, Oak View, [music] and Monarch. And for the purposes of this video, I'm not talking about the East side of Greenville, where we see Pelham Road Elementary School or Buena Vista, or the Augusta Road area where we see Beck and Augusta Circle, two other markets that are seeing very similar results as the 29681 zip code. At the high school level, the graduation rate for nearby Mauldin High School is over 96% and nearby JL Mann is to those numbers are choosing neighborhoods based on that. And in this area, the average sales price for a home over the last year is $480,000.

[00:09:10]And the 12 months before that, the average sales price was $451,000.

[00:09:15]That's a 7% increase in just 12 months, which outperformed the broader market by more than double. The third reason why people are choosing this area is luxury.

[00:09:26]Turnkey higher-end homes are attracting a strong group of buyers coming from more expensive markets. And that's a big reason why the average price is still going up. People see what they are getting for the price here and they act on it. You're seeing that in parts of Simpsonville, Five Forks, Greer, along that 29650 corridor, and Travelers Rest where school zones and lifestyle both line up. And fourth is interstate access. Being close to I-85 and I-385 consistently separate the faster moving areas from the slower ones. Commute time still matters, especially with hybrid schedules. A home near the interstate versus one that adds extra drive time every day, buyers are factoring that in now. So, now you've got a clear picture of both sides of this market and now we're going to get into new construction because if you approach it the right way, there are some real opportunities with the incentives out there right now. So, here's the thing. This is the part where a lot of people get it wrong. The same builder behavior that makes things tough for short-term sellers can actually be a really solid opportunity if you are buying with a longer timeline. Across the country, around 40% of builders have cut prices so far this year and those reductions averaged about 6% on top of that. They are getting aggressive with incentives. You're seeing mortgage rate buy-downs and in some cases with effective rates as low as 2.99% and that's a fixed rate on certain properties. Plus tens of thousands of dollars in flex cash for closing costs or upgrades. And if you're focused on your monthly payment, that can change the numbers in a massive way. And when you look at pricing, there are still some very strong entry points. In Piedmont, for example, you'll find communities starting in the low 200s up to the mid 300s. In Simpsonville, you can find new construction communities in the 300s. And in Greer, new construction townhomes have been coming out in the mid to high 200s. Those price points are hard to find in the resale market, especially as the average sales price across the market is $400,000 and in certain pockets is much, much higher than that. And I'll break down how to use this to your advantage whether you're buying or selling in just a moment. So, stay with me. Now, the big thing to keep in mind is your timeline.

[00:11:42]If you buy in one of these builder-heavy communities and plan to stay 5 years or more, you're going to be in a good spot.

[00:11:48]You can take advantage of the new incentives now and the growth that tends to come as the neighborhood fills in.

[00:11:54]Not to mention the plethora of amenities that a lot of these newer communities are built with. And if you go in thinking you'll sell in 2 or 3 years, you could end up competing with the builder when you list your home, which is not ideal. So, just be clear on your timeline before you sign anything. And when you step back and look at everything that we've covered, it all comes down to how you use this information in your own situation. So, at this point, this split in the market is creating two very different experiences depending on where you fall as a buyer or as a seller. If you are buying at the tired end of the resale market or looking at homes that need work, you've got room to negotiate now.

[00:12:35]The slipping sales to list price ratio in our market, the longer days on market, and the price reductions all show sellers in those segments are much more flexible than they were a few years ago. But when you get into the strong school zones, the convenient areas, and homes and communities that are highly desirable, that flexibility tightens up really quick. Sellers there know exactly where they stand and they price with that in mind. If you're selling a home right now, the most important step is just being honest with yourself about where your home actually fits in the market. If it's turnkey, if it's in a top school zone, if it's in a slam-dunk community, or if it packs just a ton of value for what you're willing to list it for, then you're going to sell your home in a great position. If it needs work, if it sits in a builder-heavy area, or if it's competing with new construction pricing, you need a much sharper strategy going in. The market is going to show you either way. The market's going to give you feedback pretty quickly, and it's a lot better to know that before you list than after you've been sitting on the market for 90 days.

[00:13:40]And that's why getting a real comparable base valuation matters so much right now. The Greenville market in 2026 is split into two. One side favors sellers and buyers who understand their position, and the other is catching people off guard who expected last cycle's momentum to just keep on going.

[00:14:00]You've got the full picture now, so use it. And if you want to see exactly where your home stands, go to willsawyerrealtor.com/sell-with-me or contact me at my email below. We'll walk you through it together. But if you want to understand the bigger force reshaping Greenville's value map beyond what we covered today, watch the video I've linked here. This is the long game behind everything that we just talked about. As always, my friends, my name is Will Sawyer, your friend in real estate, and until next time, stay safe.