Bitcoin: Bulls vs Bears - We're About to Find Out!

追加: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]I'm your boy camel.

[00:00:03]Yeah, camel crew.

[00:00:09]We in the cycle low.

[00:00:13]Not slaving to the tape all night.

[00:00:16]Charge blowing the neon light. Waiting for that confirmation. Patience, no hesitation. Yellow squiggle on my screen says it's lower than it seems. Got to gauge the sentiment before I go and send it.

[00:00:29]cycles are in control.

[00:00:35]>> Warning, this video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creators only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind.

[00:00:41]Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. All right.

[00:00:47]Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and Bitcoin is at a critical inflection point and I'm not convinced enough people are focused in on this to be honest. So, I'm going to spend a little bit of time today talking about that. I also want to run over some precious metal setups that we've been waiting patiently for and are now finally here in my estimation so long as today we close strong. So, I'll go through that as well and anything else I can think of on the fly as we're doing it. So, I said yesterday animal spirits are being ignited again. That's what it looks like to me. And you'll see when we get to the charts, the live trades at the end that there's quite a few vertical shaped charts out there at the moment. So, there seems to be a renition of these animal spirits, and I was saying it should be a fun couple of weeks, but I do expect to lock in some gains soon. As a quick note, if you're a level three YouTube member, I'm going to make you guys a midweek update today.

[00:01:37]It's not going to be like a full rundown, but I'm just going to go over the important bits, such as a couple of trades I want to nail some gains down on soon, and a couple of setups for the precious metals and that type of thing.

[00:01:48]So, look out for that if you're a level three YouTube member. Sailor and Strategy reported earnings last night, and I thought it was pretty funny because the number one thing that every man and his dog on Twitter this morning seemingly has clung on to is that Strategy has proposed potentially selling some Bitcoin to pay the dividends. You buy Bitcoin with credit, you let it appreciate, then you sell the Bitcoin to pay the dividend. I'm seeing a lot of people say this is a Ponzi scheme. Even Bob Lucas was kind of mocking this, right? Saying sell Bitcoin to pay someone for giving you money to buy Bitcoin, right? Nobody in financial history ever thought of this before. I know it sounds like a Ponzi scheme, but two things I think are important about this. Okay, three things actually. First of all, I've spent the past few weeks pointing at the Bitcoin cycles, specifically this yellow squiggle right here, which I'm sure you're all sick to death of, and saying that something will likely show up as we reach the latter portion of this daily cycle to catalyze this narrative, right? Every dip has its narrative. And I was saying things like something will show up, right? whether it's the straight of Hormuse opened and closed, whether it's some Trump tweet or even maybe people are going to get annoyed about Sailor potentially selling Bitcoin or something like that. But it's funny how as we're starting to approach the daily cycle high window, stuff like this starts to come out. This is actually not news to the market, right?

[00:03:00]We have known about this for a while.

[00:03:02]So, it's pretty interesting that it's kind of getting picked up on now. This is not the first time he has said he would potentially sell some Bitcoin to cover dividends or plug any other financial holes in the company should they occur. Now, this is not the same as saying we will sell Bitcoin today, tomorrow, next week, or next month.

[00:03:19]Okay? So, it's important to understand that because it's very easy to point at this and say, "Wait, he's going to dump his Bitcoin after saying he'd diamond hand it forever." Like I said, he's not saying he's going to do that today, tomorrow, whatever. He's saying that he may and he reserves the right to if he's absolutely required to. And the third thing is of course that as I said earlier, this is not news to the market.

[00:03:38]This is not the first time he has said this before. It seems a lot to me like this is just Bitcoiners doing Bitcoin things, right? Bitcoin is jumping up and down screaming euphoric and screaming bullishness over a nice little pop back to 80K only to the very next day be like sell everything. Sailor's going to dump it. Oh, right. It's just a highly emotional market, the Bitcoin market.

[00:03:57]Far more emotional than anything else. I was even thinking yesterday, it was kind of interesting to me that I was scrolling through the Twitter timeline and all you really see is people doing quote tweets on each other or I even saw a bunch of people saying unfollow anyone that got this move wrong. And I'm like only in Bitcoin do you get that right?

[00:04:12]Why aren't you allowed to just get something wrong in Bitcoin? You get something wrong in gold. You go, oh, I got stopped out. Okay, on to the next one. So long as my risk was managed, like what does it matter, right?

[00:04:21]Everyone's going to get things wrong from time to time. It's not even about being right or wrong. It's about making money. There's no other market in the world where if you go wrong a few years back, people do quote tweets on it for the next five years to come and like never forget Ben Cohen was wrong about this one time or whatever. Like it's a very weird space. But anyway, the too long didn't read is we were kind of expecting some narrative to show up.

[00:04:41]We're kind of expecting something like this and I expect more of this as we approach the cycle lows and again it's not really new news as I said and the other thing is just because he said he is going to sell or he might sell. Okay, he's not selling yet and so long as he doesn't need to sell, then he won't sell. Okay, quite a big difference to what a lot of people out there are pointing at. With that said, this current move has got a bunch of people, including the cycle traders, questioning their reality. Bob saying we're now getting close to the end of a natural counter trend move in a bare market, which is the 85 to 88k area. And that's what I want to spend a lot of time talking about now, because we are at a very critical inflection point. Okay, we're about in that neighborhood where if bears are right, we're about to see a massive rejection. And if the bulls are right, then we're about to see this area flipped into support. And off we go in a screaming, face melting, lockout rally that will frankly be extremely out of character for Bitcoin. And I don't think enough people realize that this is the area. We have reached the area now.

[00:05:38]Okay. And it's super important to understand both the up and downside scenarios from this area. Bob is pointing out that there is a difference to this move. Counter trend moves are typically stronger and much shorter in duration. And this move is more consistent with base building over a longer period. For example, it's been 88 days since the low. No counter trend move to a local high took anywhere near this long. And it means we could be looking at a more timingbased cycle low developing over 2026. In that scenario, we get the next big pullback would be more of a retest of the bare range. He says we shall have to see. Which again is that kind of idea I was talking about where maybe we do this and then back down into that low, right? and then off we go and we don't really make any significant lower lows more of a timing based low and for that to become a reality then we have to kind of push higher than we are now okay so that's what I mean by critical inflection point the 4year cycle is dead says 70 odd% of participants in this relatively small admittedly sample size but again tell me about how I'm crowded for target in a 4-year cycle I just don't believe it right I just don't believe it if anyone stumbles into a poll like this with massively different results then please do tag me and I'll be interested to see But I am still making the case that most people don't believe in the 4-year cycle. Most people don't even correctly know how to define the 4year cycle. And you can see that and evidence that by the way they say silly things like it's driven by the haring or it's no longer relevant, which just doesn't make sense.

[00:06:59]How we we don't just say daily cycles and weekly cycles disappear, right? So why would multi-month pivots disappear?

[00:07:04]Okay, that doesn't make any sense. You can also say they don't know what they're talking about because they just say silly things such as, "Oh, you think you're just going to get to blindly buy in October?" That is not how the fouryear cycle works either. Right?

[00:07:15]These people when they are criticizing the four-year cycle clearly do not even know how to define it. They don't understand that there's timing window.

[00:07:22]They don't understand the importance of using daily cycles to guide into weekly cycles to guide into the monthly pivot.

[00:07:27]They don't know what they're talking about. Right? Like I said before, they're just in the woods doing mushrooms and they haven't got a clue what's going on. Okay. So, I thought that was interesting and I still maintain we will get a major monthly pivot. The real question here is does it look like my original squiggle, right?

[00:07:42]something like this or do we now have to put on the table slightly more of a counter trend rally and then something more like this huge kind of base building exercise in which kind of everyone is right because the low was in but also we came back down to double bottom here in either case we'll take it one day at a time okay and when I said about being at a critical inflection point okay take a look at this is what I'll be talking about right here okay similar setup now we reclaim the support okay we flip that kind of 88k level into support we do something like this over the coming days and weeks Okay, then it is on like Donkey Kong for the bulls.

[00:08:14]For the people calling for continued bearishness and a kind of typical 4-year cycle repeat, for the people calling for the kind of 21 bare market fractal repeat or anything even remotely similar to that, they're going to be invalidated on an SNR flip above 88K. Okay, once we get something like this, assuming we do, then there's only two scenarios. One is a big push to new highs, and the other is this kind of lower high, head and shoulders completion. Okay, so then you get this head and shoulders type pattern down into a 4-year cycle low. But to be honest, and this is just fact, okay, is malpractice to be bullish until you get that 88kish flip. Okay, right now this is very much at the inflection point.

[00:08:52]This is exactly where you'd expect a normal retrace to occur before then move into new lows. And on a balance of probabilities, the cycles say this is the most probabilistic outcome. We are in that major inflection point zone, okay? And no one really knows. It could it could certainly go either way at this stage, but it's important to be journaling, especially if you're newer.

[00:09:13]Okay? It's important to be recording what the market seems to think according to your perspective. It's important to write down what your favorite influencers seem to think. It's important to keep a journal and a log of your emotions, right? How euphoric do you feel? How much FOMO do you feel? How sidelined do you think you are? How overexposed to this move do you think you are? How much better than other traders do you think you're doing at the moment? Okay, you should be taking a log here, okay? Because we either win or we learn. So, if you're in here just jumping up and down and you spending all day in, you know, other people's comments being like, "You're wrong." Or like you're tagging Ben Cohen or like you've got your middle fingers high in the air because you think you know something, right? Then you should be writing this down and trying to learn from it. You should be able to come back in six months time and reflect on whatever happens here. Okay? But let's not get it twisted. to just say we're bullish here and this comes next is absolutely ridiculous based on this chart setup. Okay? Because right now it seems far more probabilistic that this is on the table. But let's be really clear to simply say this is going to happen and I know it and I'm certain is equally ridiculous. Okay? Nobody knows.

[00:10:18]We're at a critical inflection point and inflection points are just that. They are areas on the chart where we're about to make a major decision for the price action in Bitcoin. Okay? But until that decision has been made by the market in aggregate until we either confirm this or this, okay, then nobody knows anything. It's in no man's land and it's really important just to not make any ridiculous and silly decisions in this neighborhood. Now, similarly, take a look at this. Shout out CryptoBullet for this chart. This chart's brilliant.

[00:10:48]2014, okay, we move up, bull trap right into the 200 MA, and then we come down.

[00:10:54]Okay, bare market bottom. 2018 bare market. Look what we do. touch the 200, kiss it again. Another bull trap down into a 4year cycle low. 22 bare market.

[00:11:04]Okay, bull trap into the 200 MA and down we go into a 4-year low. Look where we are right now. Okay, this is potentially just a routine mundane run-of-the-mill absolutely normal and to be expected bull trap into the 200 MA before potential rejection and down into a 4-year low. Let's be honest, given the price action in previous Bitcoin bare markets, given the weight of the evidence, given the fact we're still trading below the 200 MA, given the fact it's still only about 1/3, maybe slightly more than one/ird of the time has elapsed for this bare market than is typical for Bitcoin, given the fact we can say based on back tested data, 70 to 80% of the lows form inside the expected window depending on the asset class, to say that what comes next is this is really to bet on a 20 or 30% outcome.

[00:11:52]come. Now, 20 or 30% outcomes do play out from time to time, but on a balance of probabilities, we've got 70 to 80% probability of being rejected here and heading down for a 4-year low. Even if it's not as aggressive as this, okay, and even if it looks more like that timing base low where we do this, okay, there is still on a balance of probabilities much higher chance of rejecting at this 200 MA and then moving down than there is to break out. Now again, everything I said about this, okay, applies here too. You should be recording your emotions. You should be recording how you feel, how you think you're doing compared to other people, who you think is right and wrong, who you think is being ridiculous. You should be making a note of all of this now. And then regardless of what plays out, you should come back and review that so that you can learn and become better. But again, just like I said before, if you think this is coming with certainty and everyone that's calling for lower is an idiot or a lop or a fool or whatever, that is absolutely ridiculous. That's a ridiculous stance to take. Okay? And if you're saying that this comes next with certainty and anyone calling for this is an idiot or a lop or a fool, well, that is equally ridiculous. We are at a critical inflection point and nobody knows the outcome. It's for the market in aggregate to decide. So, you have to understand the levels. Okay, just like the levels here, okay, about an 88k reclaim and flip suddenly changes this whole thing. And just like here, a 200 day MA reclaim and flip also changes the entire structure of the market. At the moment, we don't have either of these things. And we're very early in the 4year cycle. So, it's very important to understand these things and not get suckered in by all of the insanity that's happening on Twitter, right? Not get suckered into all of the hate and the toxicity and the I told you so that are going on there. know the levels, understand where we are in the cycles, and make sure you have a plan for both outcomes. Remember, even if we get through these types of levels, it's entirely possible we make a lower high here and then roll over. Okay, that's also totally normal and to be expected because the monthly pivot takes time to reset and this probably isn't enough time to do it. Moving over to the last couple of things I wanted to cover.

[00:13:59]We've long been pointing at this chart and saying silver would probably get a daily cycle low and the indicator would pick it and then we get a swing. And I woke up today to Jared here showing me that we have indeed got for gold at least a indicator pick in the low. We're back above the 10 MA. So it looks like we got some confirmation signals. Not only the trend line but the 10 MA cross and the indicator all here. So long as we get a daily close that's nice and strong, we should have a long setup here with a stop below the low as always targeting much higher up. Okay. So we can risk this in order to potentially make something like this or even more if it can go to new highs. So we'll start where we mean to go on. Right, we have got let's turn this off. You can see it took ever so slightly longer than expected here, but that is indeed a pending low here. It has the trend line confirmation. It has the 10 SMA. This means longs can indeed be structured around said low. Risk can be managed around this low. Okay, and look at this for even to the highs. Okay, is almost 4:1. And if we can exceed the highs, then you get more of a 7R trade here.

[00:14:53]So, pretty clean setup. Okay, you can see the brea is about to cross bullish here. So, I mean the indicator doing the business once again. What about for silver? You can see move straight into here. Okay, now we're confirmed. Now we're ready to go. Which means again we can structure enormous RNR trades off of this. Something like this, right? And then if it goes back to the new highs, there's a 7R trade there. If it can make my upper target here, there's a potential 16R trade here based on the indicator setup. Okay, so pretty straightforward, eh? Pretty nice to see.

[00:15:21]And now it's just a case of seeing what the market will give. Now, if you're a level three member, I'm going to make a video and go over about where we should be putting stop losses for existing positions, where we should be thinking about setting invalidations for the trades that are set from down here at the weekly cycle low. So, I think we can certainly move stops up and start to nail down more gains. I would expect Newmont to be gapping up today. And of course, it is. So, long-term account benefiting from that yellow squiggle doing the biz as it often does. And if you're a level three member, we're going to be talking about managing the gains on this trade because to be holding from down here and this is now a 200 something percent move, I think off of the lows. Yeah, we are now just shy of 210% off of the lows here. Obviously, we've added in the long term, added in the longterm the Jiser and leverage positions on top here. So, I'm getting defensive about this. I'm getting ready to take some profit. So, I'll go through that kind of stuff in the level three member section. We also got Wolf pushing up here. So, I like where this is going and that kind of thing. So, anyway, I'll make you guys a members video. We'll talk about all of that. But everyone else, the S&P still pushing up, isn't it? The Dow Jones still building structure, which is good. The small caps as well. We're going to talk about this in the member section cuz it's time to nail down some gains. I mean, we've been holding this since here, which is pretty wild. And again, we'll talk about the metals confirming their lows. Pretty straightforward to deal with. Hopefully, plenty of people saw this coming. This was called out again in real time weeks in advance. And now you've got actionable setups for free on this channel. And then again, I'll give you some bonus stuff if you're a member. For the Bitcoin chart, I'm still saying the same things, right? And I bet you could probably say it with me here, right? It could be 80 and it could drag this thing up to about 85k. Either way is fine with me. And I think we'll expect to go down to a daily cycle low in the not too distant future. Start to build out some structure in a different manner like this perhaps. Okay. And then push off and then we can talk about this whole thing being an early bottom. But that's a long way off. That is going to take months to play out. Again, I wouldn't be surprised if we did some crazy stuff like this and the whole thing is just this giant head and shoulders top. But I'm not going to bet on this, right? I'm not going to deviate from my strategy here because so far this call has been right since practically the top. Right?

[00:17:18]We drew that red and the yellow squiggle. Here it is, right? Nearly 6 months later and the red squiggle was still playing out, right? It's just we're right about this area now. Okay.

[00:17:26]And the whole thing occurred slightly lower down than I was expecting. But the actual shape of this is still very much in play. So why would I have an expectation of something to occur? It all but plays out. Okay, we've gotten to here. The only bit we're missing is a new move down into the weekly cycle low for lower lows. Hence something like this coming next. Okay, that's the only thing we're missing and then this thing is still playing out exactly per my expectations. So, I'm not going to just get here and then suddenly change my mind or pivot or flip-flop or anything like that. I'm just going to continue to say this is right until it's proven wrong. We know where it starts to be proven wrong on this kind of 88k support and resistance flips. But again, we're not really there, are we? We're not really there. So, we'll see what happens. If it's going to push, of course, then fine. That gives us an opportunity to dump the spot a bit higher up. But I just don't think we're going to get it as I've been very consistent in saying. So the yellow squiggles in control until it's not. But right now it's still very much in control. I'm your boy Camel. Like I said, if you're a YouTube level three member, then look out for the members video I'm going to post for you guys after this. If you want to get started with all things cycles and get the indicator to help you pick the trade setup such as the silver trade or indeed this gold long setup right here, then you can click here in about 10 seconds.

[00:18:36]And other than that, I'm your boy Camel.

[00:18:38]God bless. Cheers. Bye.

[00:18:40]ring says it's lower than it seems. Got to gauge the sentiment before I go and send it. Cycles are in control.

[00:18:48]Everything else is narrative. Feel it in the flow. Yeah, we getting sensitive.

[00:18:54]Dr. Pegg on the feet. Ignore the sentiment. I'm follow the noise. Keep it deliberate.

[00:19:01]Trend line break. I'm leaning in, but I've seen this fake before. We're in the timing window now.