When a market breaks below a bear flag channel, it often signals a genuine bear market breakdown rather than a temporary pullback, as historical patterns show that such breakdowns are typically followed by continued downside movement rather than a fake-out.
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Now, please note that we're in a tricky situation here because the market is currently trying to break out of this channel to the downside, this bear flag.
Whenever I mean, not always, but in many cases when it happened like that in previous bear markets and we broke out of the channel to the downside, there was very often, and you see that here historically, yeah, there was not really a fake out. It was really in a bear market proper breakdown very often. So, that is why I'm I'm like, you know, we if there is a bounce, we have a nice one two set up to the downside, but the market does not owe us a bounce. Do you understand? The market doesn't have to give us that bounce. It seems likely, but first of all, I don't have any evidence it started. Um we are still consolidating also below this April low of last year at around 74,400 dollars. This is very strong resistance as well.
And so, yeah, I mean, just please be aware weakness uh is there. There is underlying weakness. We are not in a rally to new all-time highs, at least that's my view at the moment.
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