BITCOIN: Do Not Trust This Move Yet

追加: 2026-05-23

[00:00:01]Where we are right now, ladies and gents, is literally the edge of potentially potentially a ridiculously large breakout. You know, going toward 90 100K. We've talked about the bull trap possibilities up there as well.

[00:00:14]Maybe restarting the uptrend. Who knows?

[00:00:16]Let's see. Or I mean this 200 day moving average resistance. This is quite this is quite a big level of resistance to break. you know, during downtrends when we really went bearish back in 2021, 2022. We didn't break it. We found resistance here and oh, it was pretty bad. And by the way, the chart setup looks nearly the same here. Let me let me show you this really quick. A little bit of a uh detour, but just take a look at how similar it is right now uh to what we saw back then. Here, look at this. Look at this. This is the same damn chart. Wow. So um you know very very similar how we kind of came to this level before here. Let's just put this on the side. We'll keep that there and let's show you some of the other times where this happened. Okay. So we have we have resistance. Where was it? So this weird downtrend here where we actually kind of got above uh the uh the line when we kind of briefly fell below it uh and then again we kind of peaked above it. Benjamin Cowan was talking about this and this is a very very interesting set of uh you know kind of yeah I mean look at this when you dip below and and you kind of hit that moving average again very very similar kind of structure to what we had last time and you know this stuff is really interesting because I mean Bitcoin doesn't have a great track record against this particular moving average now it has broken it uh many times successfully and continued to rally higher as well that's actually a pretty typical story that we've seen as with the 200 day moving average. In fact, if you're really being fair about it, it's just not that reliable compared to, I think, the big scary thing that it really looks like. We've just, you know, very clearly ignored a lot of situations where it kind of misfires. Uh, but this one, no, this one does look pretty clean. And let me tell you what's really interesting about this time. What's really interesting right now is the backdrop. Okay, so Bitcoin has been inching higher while traditional finance indices are shooting up. I mean, we've already been over this. If you've been watching this channel, subscribed for a while, this drop, we kind of saw it coming. I was expecting the S&P to just start shooting up, but toward the end, it kind of became clear that we had to produce a dip. It happened because of the Iran conflict. It produced a beautiful 10% pullback on the S&P 500.

[00:02:39]Trump even said the stock market is going to reverse. Now, I know he talks a lot of [ __ ] but specifically some of the things he says do line up pretty well with market event. Uh, you know, he is sometimes giving out buy signals and he gave one over here. The reason I'm saying this is because the really big one came in like right down here. And I mean, guys, like, you know, sometimes there's just money sitting for, you know, sitting there for you on a silver platter. And yeah, that's what we got.

[00:03:06]Again, it's not actually Trump though.

[00:03:07]It's just the fact that we got a 10% pullback after setting new all-time highs that we kind of sort of shouldn't have done, right? Like that's kind of the main story here. How is the economy the economy how is the stock market still rallying up so aggressively against all the things that are going so badly right now? That's the whole story that you just can't get away from. It's the only thing you hear about. And you know, we can kind of understand why this pullback happens with that in mind because yeah, you're up by 15% from the previous all-time high. So you come back for a back test. Last time we got the beautiful 20% pullback and this one was absolutely incredible, you know, from low to high. That was a 40% move up.

[00:03:46]Absolutely incredible stuff inside of 300 days, 10 months there. Uh but then most importantly, really the reason we brought this up is the recovery. This is the strongest recovery we've seen in a 100 years from this kind of pullback.

[00:04:00]And that is a plus 19% move now in 45 days. And the backdrop just doesn't make sense. I mean, first of all, we know we're not even getting rate hikes. I'm sorry, rate cuts anymore. We know that that's not happening. We know that the new Fed chair, the very bullish Fed chair that Trump basically installed, I guess, as people are saying, we know that even with him, we're probably not getting rate cuts this year. We know that we're getting $100 oil. We know that, in fact, you know, it's it's gone all the way up to 120. uh you know and it very well could go up there again you know if the strike I mean you know at the time of recording you know they're they're not really doing too much right now but if if the if the fighting really erupts again I mean that's what caused oil to get up this high and despite all of this you know you got gold at all-time highs basically hedging against I don't even know what like the entire world collapsing because of AI or something I mean there's just doomer narratives everywhere you guys know me I don't buy into really any of these or I don't buy into many of them uh but the markets have priced something crazy in with gold. I mean, that is no doubt, you know, up here at 5,500. And again, despite all of that [ __ ] we're seeing an incredible, incredible recovery here for the S&P 500. It just begs the question like, what if a couple of these things start resolving? Look, they could get worse. They definitely could get worse. There's a lot of reason to believe that, too. But what if some of these things do start getting back? I mean, look, we are rallying with the hardest recovery we've seen in a 100 years against a backdrop that's supposed to be disastrous for the market. You know, I mean, look, I I'm only saying this because I've studied these markets for years and years now, nine years.

[00:05:40]I've studied these markets and, you know, I'm in and out of this stuff with the books and, you know, in the markets and all sorts of stuff like that. And one of the things that you see recurring all the time, one of the key themes that you always see here in these markets is that you are going to get, you know, I mean, easy easy warning signs that, you know, there is an environment. It's a bearish environment. The product is performing well, the asset is performing well inside of a bearish environment.

[00:06:08]That's a real sign of strength. That's what we would call a diamond in the rough, right? That's kind of where that saying comes from. Well, maybe the other way around, whatever. And um and and the inverse applies as well. You could be seeing a market that's really, really, really doing well. Uh you know, everything around it is doing really well. It's kind of what people think about with Bitcoin. Although that narrative is cracking now. That's kind of my point here. Um you know, everything around it is doing really well. Tech stocks, everything that you know, your average Bitcoin investor would probably be investing in as well, like adjacent. um you know meaning you know uh you know tech stocks basically um you know they're all doing incredible you know next to Bitcoin's failure here and those are all very reason re uh you know yeah reasonable realistic takes but really big butt here uh that we need to address that you know underperformance for Bitcoin yeah it's still there it's clearly still there in fact you can make an argument that you know it's just too clear. You know, the environment is too good and Bitcoin just isn't doing anything, therefore it's bad. Um, I guess the only thing I'd say to that is we're not promised a marriage here between Bitcoin and traditional finance in terms of when one goes, the other has to go as well. We're not promised that here. That's not a commitment that these markets have made to us. It's just an expectation that we've developed from reasonable correlations, from reasonable data. But, you know, clearly uh, you know, these markets are beating to a slightly different drum right now, you know, but I think what's undeniable here, we're sitting under this 200 day moving average, right? We pulled that up again. We're sitting under this 200 day moving average. We're coiling up right now, ladies and gents. We're finding resistance honestly in a in a pretty weak resistance zone as far as I'm concerned, guys. I mean, we got above resistance at 73K. You know, the whole resistance range, you know, 70 71 74, you know, that whole range. We got above that resistance pretty easily. Look a little bit higher up to like, you know, 83. We start getting this little fluster of resistance here. But this was never really a real resistance area. It's really just this moving average that we're kind of fighting against right now. And, you know, all this takes is one clean pop from here. You know what I'm saying? like if you see this kind of bullish energy continue on into the Friday trading session when it opens or uh you know Monday next week and all of that good stuff if you if you continue to see that you know just progress and evolve. I mean at what point is you know like is Bitcoin just going to produce a massive you know it doesn't have to it could honestly produce the opposite.

[00:08:43]This is Bitcoin we're talking about at the end of the day and honestly it would you know very perfect I mean now is the time like you know for bears now is the time and I guess that's another point I'm making. You know, this is very much a decision point right now. I mean, if if bears are not able to take advantage of this right now and send Bitcoin down, what message does that send? I mean, that at least at least means bears are going to be backing off until, you know, the low $90,000 r. I mean, you know, really the next band of resistance is in the high 80s, but I don't, you know, I mean, at this point, we're probably popping beyond that, you know, pretty reasonably. Um, you know, almost just to play catchup, you know, and one of the big signs that we've seen in between.

[00:09:19]Now look, this doesn't have to lead anywhere, but one of the big signs we did see is this little pullback here on Bitcoin Dominance. I know it doesn't look like a big deal, but what this translated to in terms of gains for certain coins was really a very clear, you know, potential beginning sign for an alt season. Now, there was one coin that really did incredibly well. I forgot what it's called. I think it was.

[00:09:36]Um, let's see how that one's doing.

[00:09:38]Yeah, look at this. I mean, this is not a bad retracement here. If we throw a fib on this, um, what are we looking like? Yeah, we haven't even retraced 61% of the move yet. uh really just sitting around 38% down from the move. So, you know, really, you know, it they're they're holding on to their gains. I mean, what do you expect? There is going to be a pullback after a move like this, but you know, if you're if you're maintaining higher highs and higher lows, and there's really no sign of that yet. So, you know, we have to we have to really wait and see how this goes. We kind of, you know, hit the same high over here for Salana. But, you know, if we see a little bit of bullish energy really return to this market, you know, really to to tell crypto traders that, you know, things are going to be okay.

[00:10:15]You know, they might not, you know, and and that's ultimately the trade here.

[00:10:17]You know, that's the point is there's no right or wrong side here necessarily.

[00:10:21]There's clearly there's going to be a right or wrong side eventually. Uh, you know, and what am I talking about?

[00:10:26]There's only right or wrong sides in in crypto. Let's not let's not make it inclusive. Not even in crypto in crypto, but just in um in in markets in general.

[00:10:35]But um yeah, you know what? We're just we're just not even going to run with that point. I don't I don't really know where I was getting at with that. But uh hey, let's let's keep it to the moving average here. You know, we we take a look at this 200 day moving average. We understand its significance and it becomes a case of like, okay, well uh you know, we're going to have to dance around this. We're going to have to break out from this with some, you know, with some clear margin, right? I mean, you know, getting above it by a little bit, you know, is not going to be enough. If you take a look at how we performed before, getting above it for even uh you know a month is is not necessarily going to be enough. I mean take a look at this. If we if we see how long Bitcoin spent above the moving average on this occasion here, really counting all of this, this was 40 days and it managed to reach 17% beyond the moving average. So, you know, what we need to understand about these kind of big macro lines is that, you know, they're they're really not meant to be treated as exact resistance level. On this occasion, it is. And this is more of a self-fulfilling prophecy potentially cuz I really don't think that there's a there is a particularly good reason for Bitcoin to stop here.

[00:11:32]And again, this is kind of what I'm saying is, you know, it's a totally different narrative for us to say that the stock market is doing what it's doing, but Bitcoin, you know, just just kind of collapses. Now, on the other hand, if the stock market collapses, which many many people think is going to happen, uh, then then yeah, we're we're kind of screwed. But, I mean, you guys know my take on that. I don't think that's what we're going to see. I mean, we are seeing it. We are seeing a stock market collapse. It's just it depends on who you ask, right? like if you're in some of the top tech stocks, what crash, who's crash, where, you know, like you you wouldn't be able to tell. But if you see it, you know, from the lens of somebody that's, I don't know, just not in one of the companies that's positioned well for this world, then um then yeah, they're they're going to be, you know, telling you a very different story. And, you know, that kind of makes sense as as as an ongoing narrative.

[00:12:16]Like that sounds like something that we might kind of simmer in a little bit and and and really get used to. uh is this narrative that says that yeah it's it's like this dual economy now and and we actually kind of know that it just depends on again who you ask if you ask the uh the poorest people in the west for example uh you know they're going to be telling you that yeah there is a there is a well I guess you you can kind of say this absolutely anywhere in the world it's just much more new in the west um you know because things really did kind of even out a little bit more over the last hundred years but um you know it's it's kind of it's kind of going back the other way uh and and and you're seeing yeah, you know, quite quite clear, you know, dual economy recovery, you know, like one person experiences and interprets it one way and another set of people experience and interprets it completely differently. Uh and and it's that K-shaped kind of economy recovery that people were talking about, right? That kind of K-shaped idea where, you know, it's experienced one way by by one group of people and it's experienced another way by another group. Uh and and again, I mean, one of the other ways to say this is rich get richer and poor get poorer.

[00:13:18]I mean, that's basically what's happening here. But how is it happening?

[00:13:22]That's kind of the mechanic. Well, it's, you know, it's it's it's through wealth.

[00:13:25]It's essentially ownership of wealth, right? So, asset ownership, stuff like that. And I mean, you know, there's a really big question we got to be asking here. Honestly, this kind of deserves its own video, which I can definitely do uh if if if I need to, let me know.

[00:13:38]Smash up the likes if you're enjoying this one so far, by the way. And if you do want to, you know, kind of see how I'm navigating the markets, really get the inside scoop on everything going on, uh, then definitely check out the top link in the description right here to get inside of Broki. You can also, uh, sign up to some of the best trading platforms in the game with the links in the description down below. Check them out if you're not from a restricted region. But, you know, bringing it back, uh, where was I? What point was I making here? Um, you know what? It's it's actually escaped me again. So, I'm going to uh I'm going to I'm going to probably leave that there. Let me see if there are any other notes I wanted to go through here for this video.

[00:14:16]Uh but you know overall uh I think that we are we're we're really headed into a uh a different kind of economy than than I think uh what you know look I I think people are kind of putting us in a bucket you know putting us in a bucket with a familiar label something that we're kind of well rehearsed with but um I don't know how well rehearsed we are with super intelligence being open source for anybody that wants to use it you know like I don't know I don't know how normal things are going to be in that environment. I don't think things have been particularly normal so far.

[00:14:50]Chat GPT was November 2022 and I don't think things have been particularly normal. I think we've actually done a lot of things we weren't supposed to do and I think that that culture of of doing things we're not supposed to do or I don't know this uh ongoing thing uh I I think it's going to continue. You know, I think it's intensifying actually. And I think that the numbers really back what I'm saying. You know, I think if you look at it with um I mean, you know, we could put this on the logarithmic. It just almost looks crazier. Like it kind of just doesn't make sense. You know, like we are really in uh quite an incredible incredible period with, you know, wealth assets, I guess. And um yeah, it's due for a pullback. I can see that. But it can go for a while. I mean, you know, it's it is the stock market, you know, so it can still go. And this is what I'm saying is like another week on this ship and you're kind of at like 7,800, you know, 7700. So, you know, it's it's uh it gets very crazy in these kind of phases. And yeah, it it does need the crash. I mean, it doesn't always get the crash necessarily. It can kind of start off a little bit slower.

[00:16:08]You know, sometimes it's um I don't know. Like this this wasn't even too crazy, was it? These these big I mean, it got progressively bigger, but very sharp and quick. You know, that's kind of what you want. If we if we could choose, we get hammered. Uh you know, I think the quick and sharp ones are usually better because those are opportunities to trade as well. But yeah, no, I see it. I mean, it's totally getting, you know, completely unsustainable. I just don't know what pulls the plug on this.

[00:16:41]Uh we'll end up seeing it, you know, but I think the issue is that if you're really worried about it, you take your yourself out of the market too early, hey, you know, if you can be happy with that, then fine, you know, but um I think that's kind of what I want to point out. Everybody's having that discussion right now. Everybody's having that discussion of this is too crazy. Is it the time to get out? Or more importantly, it's time to get out. You know, that's kind of the discussion that a lot of people are having. And it's like, okay, well, let's observe that.

[00:17:11]Get out if you want. I'm not telling you what to do, but let's observe it, too.

[00:17:14]Where is it coming from? What does it mean? Who's saying it?

[00:17:25]The way I see it, you can get a pullback 7,500 where we're at now down to 7K. It would be fantastic. It would be it would be everything we need. We can get down to 6,800, you know, penetrate a little bit lower. No problem. No problem whatsoever.

[00:17:53]But if a couple of these geopolitical things start getting better, I don't know what to say. You know, speculation can go crazy. Yeah, it'll probably still have to come down, you know, and if it goes up really hard, it'll have to come down harder, right?

[00:18:05]So, that's probably still going to happen. I'm not I'm not saying that, you know, physics don't apply.

[00:18:10]But, uh, what I am saying is, look, these markets can stay irrational for a long time. they can stay, you know, you've you've heard the saying these markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent. And one of the big things that no one's really paying attention to, I'm going to end the video on this note. But really, if you want to dive much deeper into how we like, you know, how we like to approach these markets, then Broi with the top link in the description is going to be your home. Check it out. But, you know, one of the big things I'll say is these markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent, right? We're very familiar with those ideas. And I think something that we're not really thinking too much about is people are really beaten down, battered, bruised, just just really just trotted on by these markets over these last few I mean, Bitcoin's been in an uptrend since $15,000 when it set the low. That was 2022 23.

[00:19:06]And um Bitcoin's been up in an uptrend ever since really. I mean, you can argue it's not in an uptrend now, but that's only like the last 7 months.

[00:19:14]So, you know, it's it's been quite some time and Bitcoin has been trending up and yet everybody's just in this terrible state of mind. No belief in crypto whatsoever.

[00:19:27]I think that's more representative of people kind of really like pingponging to the other side, which is extremely typical right before things kick off. Now, it doesn't it doesn't have to happen that way. It doesn't it doesn't have to happen that way. But if things were about to kick off, if it was about to get extremely bullish, you would see reverse sentiment right before, right?

[00:19:49]You would you would kind of expect that.

[00:19:51]I mean, that's kind of what a suckers rally is called. And, you know, I've I've really always maintained since, you know, as long as it was clear that we're in a big correction, I've always maintained that. To me, this looks quite a bit more like a standard pullback inside of this uptrend than anything else. And I'm really using this right here. I mean, if we take a look at when we entered this kind of sideways range to when we exited, this one was 220 days, which is 7 months, right? So, from here to here, that was 7 months.

[00:20:24]And if we take a look at this one right here, when we kind of entered this range to when we broke out of it, this one was 256 days. But really, I'm I'm being a little bit too generous there. It was it was really more of a 240day thing. So, you know, you're looking at you're looking at 8 months.

[00:20:40]And, you know, if if we measure kind of where we are now from the all-time high until, you know, well, where we are now, it's it's been bang on 7 months, seven and a half months. And um and we're we are rallying back up and breaking out.

[00:20:55]And well, we're not quite breaking out yet. We've had one breakout, you know, in in the low 70s, but um you know, we we're in another, you know, the way I see it so far, it looks exactly the same. We're in another seven, eight month long cor correction. You know, it it just rhymes with with the current trend, which is a pretty, you know, common characteristic of Bitcoin.

[00:21:18]Bitcoin kind of establishes certain characteristics within trends, and it tends to kind of repeat or or rhyme with those characteristics throughout the rest of those trends. It doesn't always happen and it doesn't have to happen now, but it looks like that to me.

[00:21:32]And so, you know, that's that's your seven, eight months and then you're kind of on the way back up and you got everybody saying it ain't going to happen. I mean, how is that different to, you know, what happened over here? How is that different to what happened over here? I mean, this whole this whole rally has been hated. The whole [ __ ] rally has been hated. And I just don't see why. I don't see how this is different so far.

[00:21:58]To me, it looks like a sharper pullback than what we had before, but still not as sharp as what we got back in 2021, which means it's still within the realm of normaly now, which is kind of crazy.

[00:22:10]But, um, that's where that's where we're at. That's what I see. I don't know. I don't know. That's me talking. Um, you know, I don't claim to hold all of the answers, but I got to say we've been uh we I feel like we've had a pretty sound understanding of this market overall, other than not selling the top, but I've never been concerned by that.

[00:22:35]You know, like selling the top, you know, you take that attitude, you end up not staying in markets for for the for the bulk of the G. I mean, you know, the math is very clear on this. people that hold these, you know, investments tend to tend to be the winners overall, you know, because otherwise you're you're playing with opportunity cost too much and one day, you know, you're going to have to pay that opportunity cost, you know, and it's and it's going to really sting compared to the guy that just didn't touch his bags, you know, and that's not me saying you got a hold.

[00:23:07]I'm just uh I'm just kind of explaining how I see it. So, yeah, great stuff. That was That was a pretty nice video, huh? Good stuff. If you enjoyed it, you know what to do.

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