CMHC says housing starts are down: What that means for our region

追加: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]According to the CMHC housing starts are down nearly a quarter from this time last year. Prices have fallen that much from their 2022 peak. To break down what's going on, we've got real estate broker Peggy Hill. Thank you for joining us, Peggy.

[00:00:14]>> Thanks for having me. So, the first question, the 5-year fixed-rate mortgages, they're trending upward. What does that say about the market right now? Um so, I can tell you the last few weeks have been busy, and as you can see, the bond market was down the end of April, beginning of March. Bond market was down, so our rates were down. We were getting a 359, 369. So, there were a lot of first-time buyers with pre-approvals that they got from that time that they needed to use. So, I that's what I attribute to the fact that we've been kind of busy in the last little while.

[00:00:47]Now, the bond market has gone up since. I mean, the war is not helping anybody. Um it And And the bond market's up and down, too, because they don't know what to expect. So, I think they're they're pricing in some inflation, thinking that, you know, the gas prices are going to start really affecting the economy, but we'll see. As far as I can see, I don't see any hikes coming right now.

[00:01:12]Now, of course, uncertainty affects prices. Do you think prices are going to fall any more, or have we hit the floor here?

[00:01:18]Uncertainty does um affect prices. The thing that affects prices most is consumer confidence, so and unfortunately, when people don't feel good, they don't feel like buying houses. But, we have seen a segment of the market coming back in, the ones that are buying and selling, cuz they're finally realizing, "Okay, I'm not going to get what my house sold would have been worth in 2022, but guess what? I'm not going to pay for a house what I did in 2022." So, as far as prices falling, I think I think we're pretty close to a bottom. Like, we're back to probably 2019 prices, which is what the market wanted was to take away all those COVID gains because they weren't real. So, when you have gains that aren't based on reality, they tend to retract. So, tell me, what's it going to take to get more first-time buyers into the market now?

[00:02:08]So, our first-time buyers have been saving us because they they have been.

[00:02:13]So, right now, like I said, when they were getting 369, it made sense. So, what it needs to happen is the rates need to stay down because when first-time buyers buy, they buy because rent is just as expensive as owning a home. So, if we can keep those interest rates down where it's affordable for a first-time buyer, then we we will have a a solid market and we'll have first-time buyers in it.

[00:02:36]But, the other thing that's happened is that there's been a lot of building and unfortunately, there's been a lot of building of rentals. So, we have an abundance of rentals and even more coming up because, you know, during COVID, the whole mindset was affordability, affordability. So, they were building rentals. Well, they're ready and now we don't know what to do with them all. Okay. Thank you so much for your insight, Peggy. We've been speaking to Peggy Hill of the Peggy Hill Team Realty. Now, let's check in with Casey in the garden.