🚨 Altcoins: The Monster Rally is Here! [We Are Back] 📈

本站添加: 2026-05-17

[00:00:00]cryptocurrency market. The Clarity Act, which everyone wants, everyone loves, is being voted on on the 14th of May.

[00:00:12]But, you really can't tell by looking at the screen cuz it's been in doubt as to whether or not it's going to get done.

[00:00:20]It's going to get done.

[00:00:22]And then, the next day, a Fed chairman, who is facing a huge pickle, see yesterday's stream.

[00:00:32]A huge pickle is going to come on and say, "We're ready to support the economy. We're ready to support the consumer. We're ready to support the job market." And even though Kevin's going to have to sell his personal crypto, he's going to come out and say, "I like Bitcoin."

[00:00:51]What else is he going to say with Eric T with his own Bitcoin mining company?

[00:00:58]These seem to be big positive catalysts headed into our May 16th Gann date, which we've been talking about for 3 days.

[00:01:07]And it's amazing how even with this creeping bid, which is now creeping into Ethereum and Solana, right?

[00:01:17]That everybody is not paying more attention.

[00:01:21]They're paying attention. You're paying attention. You're here.

[00:01:24]But, am I getting this flavor of sort of like, you know, a little combination of denial and who cares because it hasn't done anything in a while?

[00:01:40]There's nothing better than denial and depression because everything that you're about to get, you're going to get.

[00:01:51]But, no one thinks it mattered. I mean, 6 months ago, "Oh, we're getting the Clarity Act in 3 days. OH MY GOD, COINDESK IS ON FIRE.

[00:02:01]NO.

[00:02:02]None of that.

[00:02:04]None of that.

[00:02:07]Then, you might sprinkle in some TA.

[00:02:11]You obviously have a massive blow-off top going on in stocks. We'll look at some of that.

[00:02:18]Uh we'll also look at the spectacular year of 1999.

[00:02:25]We'll have one piece of stock market trivia, and we'll have an insane pattern match between Bitcoin ETF and Nasdaq.

[00:02:36]Undoubtedly, you can argue about it all day and tell me I'm out of my mind.

[00:02:41]That's okay.

[00:02:43]I'm going to use it anyway.

[00:02:46]Then, we'll do some traditional TA on things like total crypto market cap. We will look at fib retracements, and we will look maybe at some hidden pivot analysis.

[00:03:00]But here's the most important thing, especially for a chill weekend stream.

[00:03:06]People don't seem that bullish.

[00:03:10]People seem hesitant. Like stocks are wild, and they probably shouldn't be. We'll discuss how long that can go on.

[00:03:22]But where's the wild action in crypto?

[00:03:26]Isn't crypto normally the wild market? I mean, you got a little wild action going on in Arrow today, and you had a little wild action going on, like 10% rallies in some alts.

[00:03:39]But you don't have the wild rally in Bitcoin yet.

[00:03:44]You don't even really have anything going on in Ethereum or Solana, although, you know, some of the Solana, like the weekly charts, like maybe it doesn't go nuts Monday, but some of these weekly charts are like where you're going to be after this Clarity Act.

[00:04:02]People, when you start putting common sense bullish catalyst together with some of this TA, and then, you know, you sprinkle a little GAN on top, you know, again, as I said, I know this is not resonating with everybody, but you do have a massive blow-off top going on in equities. Like, how can you have a blow-off top going on in semiconductors and Nasdaq and all the components of this AI trade, or at least all the components of what I would call the old AI trade, not necessarily the new one, which is going to be like electricity, construction. I mean, I know that stuff's moving, too, but the the blow-off is really in I don't know. The old news.

[00:04:52]What about the new news in cryptocurrencies?

[00:04:57]Again, cryptocurrencies, right? We're going to go over like some news. We're going to We're We're going to do some old-school live TA cuz I know people are dying for that, right? Uh I've been trying to do more monologues, and today we're going to try and do more TA, right? To to sort of meet the demand headed into next week.

[00:05:22]Okay, just a uh just a a a brief word for everybody.

[00:05:30]Uh So, we have uh you know, spiritual leaders at Mar-a-Lago to dedicate a gold statue.

[00:05:41]Well, I know it's the golden age, you know, it's the golden age. Clearly, it's the golden age.

[00:05:48]>> [sighs] >> Wasn't there a religious thing about not worshipping big golden statues in the Old Testament?

[00:05:56]Did I do Did I remember that correctly?

[00:05:59]Cuz, you know, every time I think about the golden age, uh I want to think about Bitcoin. It's really what I want to think about, to be honest.

[00:06:09]Uh continuing with the golden age, the geopolitical situation gets more bizarre and potentially bullish as it looks like uh that country in the Middle East is getting weird and desperate by dumping their oil into the Gulf of Mexico off this very important island.

[00:06:29]So, if they can't sell it, they're dumping it into the ocean?

[00:06:34]Strange strange move, but normally there's negative geopolitical news over the weekend.

[00:06:43]So far, it's hasn't been seen.

[00:06:46]Hence the bid in Bitcoin above 80.

[00:06:49]I mean, whatever this is is unfortunate for the uh you know, the ocean.

[00:06:55]But if this is the big geopolitical news of the week, I don't know, man. Feels like we got upside.

[00:07:04]US credit card debt goes to 1.3 trillion.

[00:07:12]Kevin Warsh comes on the job May 15th.

[00:07:19]Uh we have product placements now. Go out and buy a Dell. They're great.

[00:07:23]That's down the road from me.

[00:07:26]Now, let's talk about 1999.

[00:07:33]Let's talk about it.

[00:07:35]So, Jason here lets us know that this will be the fourth time that the S&P 500 has hit a new record high while 5% of the members of the S&P 500 fall to new 52-week lows.

[00:07:55]Meaning this trade is heavily concentrated in tech, AI, energy, and stuff like that, right? It's it's a concentrated rally.

[00:08:05]Now, the four times we've seen this are, you know, 2 months before the top in 1929.

[00:08:14]I'm not familiar with 1973, although my father was in the bear market of '74, and that was a bear market.

[00:08:22]And also in December of 1999, which I remember very well.

[00:08:31]Very, very, very well.

[00:08:35]Now, the candlestick chart that you're looking at is Nasdaq from the tech bubble or the dot-com bubble.

[00:08:47]And as you can see, Nasdaq had a normal, orderly uptrend until it just went totally vertical.

[00:08:57]Like completely vertical, which is like what's happening now.

[00:09:01]It's you know, just people have forgotten that, that that's how that ended.

[00:09:06]That that wasn't a parabolic all the way up. That was a parabolic from October to March.

[00:09:14]6 months of straight up. Here is December of 1999.

[00:09:20]And again, it was straight up. I mean, yeah, it was straight down when it was over.

[00:09:25]I I don't think we have to worry about that right this second. Matter of fact, I don't think we have to worry about that at all. I think everybody's worried about this part and not worried about this part.

[00:09:38]Now, that's stonks. That's nice. It's crazy, but who cares?

[00:09:45]I mean, you know, you can jump on it and get this. I would definitely prefer to be in crypto or Bitcoin mining stocks, and here's why.

[00:09:55]And I know this is nuts, but that's okay because I'm nuts and I don't care.

[00:10:02]All right.

[00:10:03]Now, here we have the blue chart is the weekly history of the Bitcoin ETF.

[00:10:14]Okay?

[00:10:15]And as you can see, the Bitcoin ETF has done a fairly decent job of of tracking what Nasdaq did early in the tech innovation cycle starting in 1998.

[00:10:30]Okay? So, you know, Bitcoin's an innovation, PCs, the internet, Microsoft Word, that was all an innovation, too.

[00:10:39]Except except when Nasdaq took a break, Nasdaq went sideways from June to October of 1999.

[00:10:51]Meanwhile, Bitcoin just got trounced.

[00:10:56]So, you know, they sort of moved together and then Bitcoin just completely diverged.

[00:11:05]Now, I ask you this.

[00:11:09]Simple.

[00:11:11]>> [snorts] >> If this is where we are in the stock market blow-off top according to somebody who's keeping track of this in equities, is there any special reason why we are not matched up at a point where Bitcoin could just go vertical just like Nasdaq did?

[00:11:30]In other words, you know, energy is a mess.

[00:11:36]Inflation is a mess. Job creation is a mess.

[00:11:41]Like, how does this problem get solved?

[00:11:44]Can the Fed solve it? Maybe.

[00:11:47]They could push a bunch of money into the system.

[00:11:50]We covered that yesterday ad nauseam.

[00:11:54]Can Can Bitcoin turn around and act like Nasdaq?

[00:12:01]Is that possible?

[00:12:03]Can cryptocurrency act like equities?

[00:12:08]I I'll report, you decide.

[00:12:12]You decide.

[00:12:13]We're going to be doing total crypto market cap next.

[00:12:18]Okay?

[00:12:19]But first, a word about the golden age.

[00:12:26]So, the famous longhorn chocolate candy.

[00:12:33]It's got pecan nuts, chocolate, some sort of little mix on the inside.

[00:12:40]Made by Lammes Candies in Austin, Texas, and they are out of business, and I am not happy.

[00:12:48]That is not the golden age.

[00:12:51]It's not.

[00:12:52]>> [laughter] >> Okay.

[00:12:54]And when you have companies who just say, "We can't operate anymore." That's what happened. They just said, "We cannot operate anymore. That's it. We're done."

[00:13:06]All the way around. [snorts] We can't We can't charge you $6 a chocolate.

[00:13:11]It's over.

[00:13:14]I used to get those chocolates for everybody in Jersey and ship them out there.

[00:13:20]>> [laughter] >> My mother used to call them direct.

[00:13:23]Gone.

[00:13:24]Now, I I that that's that's not an earth-shattering economic event. However, >> [snorts] >> if we go to total crypto market cap, okay?

[00:13:42]Notice, you know, you spent many weeks pounding on this Lux Algo expanding range.

[00:13:52]I don't think people understand how bullish something like this can be.

[00:13:59]Now, I'm not going to I'm not going to go pull it up, but it's very similar to the 8-year consolidation between 2000 and 2009 in equities.

[00:14:10]When you have this kind of like expanding triangle formation, I mean, if you ever broke out of what's up up here, oh my god.

[00:14:21]The the the technical implications of that are insane, and I'm not drawing this. Unlike Unlike the freestyle action from 1999, that's drawn by Lux Algo.

[00:14:35]Okay? Now, if if I if I got this correct, >> [snorts] >> is it just me or did total crypto market cap retrace 62% of the FTX move?

[00:14:56]Okay?

[00:14:57]So, 62% retracement from back in Feb you know, from the February move, brought you to 2T.

[00:15:06]And And is it me or did total crypto market cap just break out, do a return move, and then bounce up with a Lux Algo buy signal?

[00:15:18]You know, like this one turned out pretty good. This one turned out really good.

[00:15:24]This is like my 1999 chart.

[00:15:27]You know?

[00:15:29]What happens if this is like a a like a wave one?

[00:15:41]And this is wave two.

[00:15:43]In other words, a correction.

[00:15:46]Right? Everyone's like, "Oh my god, it's a bear market."

[00:15:50]Oh oh, are you seeing this Tik Tok style? Uh-oh.

[00:15:54]You're not seeing this, are you? Whoops.

[00:15:59]All right. Let me let me Okay.

[00:16:05]There you go.

[00:16:06]I'll do this. I'll I'll do it this way cuz this is important.

[00:16:10]Okay. So, this is total.

[00:16:15]What happens if this is wave one and this is wave two?

[00:16:20]I'll keep this simple cuz we wound up in Tik Tok format.

[00:16:25]Now, if you're crossing this 50% retracement line, what does wave three look like?

[00:16:33]Well, wave three, at least the first part of it, could look like this.

[00:16:40]You use like fib extension work.

[00:16:48]What about total crypto market cap going from two and a half trillion to five trillion?

[00:16:58]Could that Could that happen?

[00:17:03]Now, what you're going to tell me is, "No."

[00:17:07]But, if you think about it, if you think about what's happening now as a correction, and then, let's just say I'll I'll to put it back up on the screen.

[00:17:17]Again, let let us know if you're seeing this on YouTube or not. No, I see it the other way. So, I'll make sure I help you out.

[00:17:27]Okay, I'll put NASDAQ back up.

[00:17:33]Okay, what happens if wave three is like this in NASDAQ?

[00:17:44]Because that's what wave three can look like. That's also what wave five can look like.

[00:17:50]Why can't this be wave three up in crypto?

[00:17:54]Why?

[00:17:56]Like, you know, your favorite candy store is out of business >> [snorts] >> while they worship the golden cow in Florida.

[00:18:05]Excuse me for being salty.

[00:18:08]I mean, Bitcoin was made for the day when stuff like this would happen.

[00:18:15]Where like Joe Public is poof.

[00:18:21]And the And the guys at the top are like, let them eat cake.

[00:18:25]What What happens if you have this like massive rebellion happening from underneath the market?

[00:18:35]You know, what one thing I can show Again, I know I'm in TikTok mode now.

[00:18:44]So, your 13 bottom in Solana, tired of hearing about it yet?

[00:18:52]All right. Well, maybe you are.

[00:18:55]>> [snorts] >> Until I show you the last 13 bottom in Solana, which [snorts] was December of 2022, where Solana like made one final heave to $8, and then went straight to 26, and then proceeded to go massively higher.

[00:19:21]Massively higher.

[00:19:25]And the thing that's so funny is you know, what happens in Solana if [snorts] this is like, you know, the end of the first wave and this is the second wave on a weekly chart.

[00:19:42]Okay? Not not just, you know, not just the last couple of years.

[00:19:48]Right? What happens if this is like a weekly wave three?

[00:19:53]Um the target that I put together on the hidden pivot analysis, let me just check.

[00:20:01]The target that I put together for Solana, the first target, if it if it really is wave three, the first target is 207.

[00:20:13]So, at Solana at 86, I said Solana is a joke at 83. That's when we started talking about it.

[00:20:20]Now Solana is at 93 and unless I'm doing something wrong on the live streams, I've got I've got less traction at 93 than I did at 83.

[00:20:33]Now I'm talking about 207.

[00:20:37]Why can't Solana go to 207?

[00:20:42]I I mean, I'm sure there I'm sure there's a reason.

[00:20:48]But the Clarity Act of stable coins and all the activity that's going to be on these networks, right?

[00:20:55]A- and and here is your semiconductor index.

[00:21:06]Okay? So, chips for AI, you know.

[00:21:12]This this is weekly.

[00:21:15]SOX is a semiconductor index.

[00:21:19]>> [snorts] >> So that's that's vertical. That's that's five weeks in a row.

[00:21:25]If you look at on a daily chart, so Bitcoin or Solana cannot do this.

[00:21:44]Can cannot just go straight up.

[00:21:47]The money that the machines are going to use.

[00:21:56]Now, somebody is talking about XRP.

[00:21:59]Again, [snorts] we'll put the headline up. I don't know if you you can't see it, but Coindesk is reporting, and I I love this. I love this.

[00:22:07]That Ripple's Brad Garlinghouse is saying AI layoffs are a quote travesty, unquote.

[00:22:16]Somebody finally said it.

[00:22:20]They're not AI layoffs, unless the company is spending money on AI, which, you know, in some cases it is.

[00:22:28]But these workers are not being replaced by agents right now.

[00:22:33]Right? Agents would probably be more able or more capable in capital markets than they would be at replicating what somebody does at work, at least right now.

[00:22:46]Somebody finally called Silicon Valley out.

[00:22:51]How wonderful that it's the XRP guy.

[00:22:54]Right?

[00:22:55]Who's not a saint in his own right, but it also is a reminder that you know, uh uh it's also a reminder that he's got a thousand people.

[00:23:09]He's got a thousand people behind XRP.

[00:23:12]He's got a marketing organization behind that crypto, their stable coins.

[00:23:18]They're going to go public or they're going to get taken over.

[00:23:22]Matter of fact, this the whole thing talking about layoffs like randomly, it sounds like someone's looking to acquire the company right now.

[00:23:30]And he's negotiating that you're not laying my people off when you take over the company. That was the first thing I thought of. Like, why is Garlinghouse talking about layoffs? He's not laying anybody off. He's got to get bigger so he can go public or get acquired at a higher price. What if somebody is trying to acquire Ripple? With the Clarity Act with Warsh taking over as Fed, which people assume is negative because he's not a printer, yet he has no option other than to print.

[00:24:03]We discussed this yesterday. And I I don't know I don't know if I did a good job or not. I don't know.

[00:24:10]I tried to say that like when new Fed chairmen take over, they think they're going to do one thing.

[00:24:16]Like in '87, Greenspan thought he was going to be an inflation tough guy like Volcker just like Warsh thinks he's not going to be a printer.

[00:24:24]He doesn't like that. And that's one of the reasons why you know, kind of Bitcoin and the market freaked out back in February.

[00:24:33]Well, what happens if he doesn't have another option?

[00:24:37]Greenspan didn't have another option because the stock market went down 40% in his face after he hiked rates.

[00:24:45]Greenspan was dovish for the rest of his life, for the rest of his career at the Fed.

[00:24:50]Greenspan was like, "Oh yeah, everything's fine."

[00:24:53]And again, we talked about this yesterday.

[00:24:56]But I mean, you have catalysts coming up.

[00:24:59]Like, this is important, right? I mean, there was no catalyst in this market for, you know, months.

[00:25:05]Like, the bigger the base, the higher in the space sounds great. Right? The bigger the base, meaning how the longer it just sits and goes sideways and does nothing.

[00:25:14]Very catchy, except if you're in the base part of it, which we've been in, and you're like, >> [snorts] >> you know, there's nothing to talk about.

[00:25:22]It's like, you know, you got to grow a beard and do a show like Bitcoin and beards, like what they did back in 2019.

[00:25:30]So, if it's the bigger the base, the higher in the space, what you need is catalysts.

[00:25:35]We have Clarity Act. We have Warsh backed into a corner before he even starts.

[00:25:44]And you could have a possible Ripple acquisition or IPO announcement.

[00:25:50]I mean, there are all these big cryptos that everybody has been bullish on long-term, and all you hear is crickets.

[00:26:01]All you hear is crickets. Now, I I did I did want to try and cover Bitcoin again.

[00:26:19]Okay, so let's go to Bitcoin on the weekly chart and see if I got the TikTok TA skills.

[00:26:25]Wasn't planning on it, but let's see what I can do.

[00:26:35]Okay, there's Bitcoin weekly.

[00:26:41]Now, again, this is coming off the lows. I know it's a very busy chart, but it's very simple that this is, you know, 1 2 3 4 5.

[00:26:56]So, it's a complete wave one up.

[00:27:02]And this, of course, is your wave two down.

[00:27:07]Now, if you if you take a shot at some hidden pivot analysis to try to discuss upside targets, the first upside target you would discuss is 97, which matches up with this resistance.

[00:27:24]The second one you would talk about is 135.

[00:27:28]Now, let me ask you a question.

[00:27:31]Let me just ask you a question.

[00:27:34]What do you think would happen if this thing went to 100 quickly, then it consolidated, and then, before the end of the summer, it made a new high?

[00:27:52]That's what those numbers mean. And that hidden pivot analysis was a was a conservative way of doing it relative to what I could have done.

[00:28:02]What happens if your I don't know, your July 4th present or maybe your end of July present is 135 Bitcoin?

[00:28:17]Where is that going to put most altcoins?

[00:28:23]Where's it going to put most altcoins?

[00:28:24]Well, I don't know. Let's Let's just look at the picture.

[00:28:28]Right? The The high in total three, I won't show it. The high in total three was 1.1 trillion for the total valuation of all altcoins of all crypto minus Bitcoin and Ethereum.

[00:28:47]So, you know, your altcoins worth 1 trillion.

[00:28:53]Keeping in mind that, you know, the world is going to need a 90 trillion-dollar refit over the course of the year.

[00:29:02]1 trillion is the value of of Web3. 1 trillion would be the value of Web3.

[00:29:09]Right now, Web3 is worth 762 billion.

[00:29:15]Right?

[00:29:18]So, is Solana going to continue to go up? Says Roto Rootage.

[00:29:23]Yeah, man, I think so.

[00:29:25]I I think you can get a 1-to-2-day break in this stuff where it chills out, and then it just simply and plainly resumes.

[00:29:35]It resumes.

[00:29:38]Right? Someone asking about Tron.

[00:29:40]>> [snorts] >> It's funny, the first time the guy said that, I thought he was talking about the movie.

[00:29:52]You know, it's it's funny because when you when you look at this, >> [snorts] >> it it feels like another case of no one owns it.

[00:30:15]>> [snorts] >> This is weekly.

[00:30:19]By the way, feel free to comment if you're seeing this in TikTok format.

[00:30:25]I I mean, it looks it looks like it wants to go to 40 cents.

[00:30:30]Which is funny.

[00:30:33]It's also a reminder that when it comes to layer ones, um humans [snorts] will not be picking the next round of layer ones.

[00:30:43]Humans won't.

[00:30:45]Agents will.

[00:30:47]An agent now can open up a wallet and start doing things very easily.

[00:30:53]I I I don't think I don't think that's a really complicated agent at all.

[00:30:59]At all.

[00:31:02]I think there was also something I wanted to show on the ETH weekly chart, which again I'm determined to do.

[00:31:08]Because I think there's a stealth looks algo breakout going on there as well.

[00:31:17]If I'm correct, which I'm not.

[00:31:19]>> [snorts] >> Checking, checking, checking.

[00:31:29]Nope.

[00:31:30]Okay. Wrong chart.

[00:31:35]I want to move.

[00:31:38]I'm still going to go to ETH weekly.

[00:31:44]Okay.

[00:31:46]Now, ETH weekly has a couple of hurdles.

[00:31:52]So, ETH does have work to do.

[00:31:56]Okay?

[00:31:58]So, this is ETH weekly.

[00:32:02]And one of the things that I'm interested in is to watch Ethereum poke its head above the 76% retracement.

[00:32:17]So, ETH went from 1,300 to 4,900. Tom Lee buys up here.

[00:32:25]Then it goes all the way down here.

[00:32:27]Takes out every fib number you can imagine.

[00:32:31]And now ETH is sitting above the 76% retracement at 2240.

[00:32:38]ETH right now is at 2330.

[00:32:42]It's 76%. Now, normally, this is almost like what a meme coin will do. A meme coin will go all the way up, then it'll come back down, and then once it gets back above a big fib number, preferably 62%, but in this case, I'll take it.

[00:33:00]You know, and the the puking that's going on in ETH, like if you look down here, the the puking that has gone on in this crypto, >> [snorts] >> and I I really do like how you know, the dollar has kind of fallen out of bed as well.

[00:33:31]Dollar is now Dollar is now below equilibrium on the daily chart.

[00:33:41]Right? This was the rejection at the 200-day moving average that may have mattered.

[00:33:47]Everybody is wound up about Bitcoin rejecting the 200-day moving average.

[00:33:52]It's starting to look like the dollar is doing it. Now, why is the dollar falling apart, ladies and gentlemen?

[00:34:00]Well, I don't know. You got inflation, and you have consumer confidence at the lowest rating ever, and the job market is obviously a disaster.

[00:34:12]I mean, to the point where somebody is commenting that, you know, these layoffs are unconscionable, and and they are.

[00:34:19]The The layoffs are unconscionable.

[00:34:24]I I I don't know that that level of suffering needs to be created when you have a blow-off top going on in stocks.

[00:34:33]I don't.

[00:34:35]So, the dollar is falling apart, a new Fed chairman is going to come in.

[00:34:41]He wants rates down, and he's going to have to do something.

[00:34:45]Now, what is the something?

[00:34:49]I don't know. How many choices are there?

[00:34:51]You know, you got to either jawbone interest rates lower by coming on the tape and talking about how great Bitcoin is, or or or or how how you want rates lower as soon as the geopolitical situation is over?

[00:35:05]You know, the guy's either got to get on the tape and start talking favorably about interest rates, about crypto, about risk assets, or he's got to push high-powered money into the system.

[00:35:18]And if you're pushing high-powered money into the system after you've held big fib numbers in Ethereum, Solana, and Bitcoin, total crypto market cap looks like it wants to double to 5 trillion?

[00:35:34]A- A- A- And are we actually sitting around and debating whether or not you should be looking at Avalanche below $10?

[00:35:46]A- A- Avalanche was at $15 in January.

[00:35:53]It was at $35 in September of last year.

[00:35:59]You know, the idea of the bigger the base, the higher in the space.

[00:36:06]Avalanche, the C-Chain has security token functionality.

[00:36:10]Isn't it funny how you read all these articles about tokenization, but you never hear about the cryptos that can actually run tokenized assets? Baby whale is talking about Polkadot, which I think is a great conversation.

[00:36:27]Toby, to my knowledge, never stopped liking Polkadot.

[00:36:31]By the way, that's a good segue into the fact that we've kept it simple, but we've kept the altcoin reports in Patreon and the YouTube member area, both tiers. Kept it simple, didn't overload you.

[00:36:46]It's in there.

[00:36:53]See [snorts] Polkadot breaking out of this?

[00:36:59]You Lux Algo's got these format these these these these formations everywhere.

[00:37:05]Right?

[00:37:06]This is the downward sloping range.

[00:37:15]Okay, to review what the downward sloping range is, you know, you you press the market down like like a basketball under in a pool, all the way down, and then you let go, and then the basketball pops up, not only to the surface, but above the surface.

[00:37:32]No, it's not exactly pool weather in the United States.

[00:37:37]Polkadot.

[00:37:39]Okay.

[00:37:41]I heard Japan is selling every dollar that they can. You're right.

[00:37:45]They're trying to keep dollar yen from going through 160.

[00:37:50]The Fed is going to have to join in on that.

[00:37:53]Now, I don't know exactly how that plays out, but I'm just guessing, just guessing, that if you have a currency crisis or a debt crisis, that that is got to favor Bitcoin.

[00:38:08]Now, maybe maybe you have that nuke in September or Rocktober.

[00:38:14]That's also possible that the pressure just builds up in the system, and that, you know, you have your standard problem in the fall. The issue is or the problem is in crypto is that we're trading the problems now.

[00:38:30]The decline in February made us think that a problem was coming now.

[00:38:36]I I haven't seen the I mean obviously there's a geopolitical situation that's serious.

[00:38:41]But that's just sovereigns acting up again, you know.

[00:38:45]All a part of the golden age.

[00:38:48]>> [snorts] >> You know. And I hate to pick on the guy, but I I do think that you know Bitcoin needs a little bit of an edge to it.

[00:38:57]Like Bitcoin Vegas, like too many public officials, you know, too many presidential children.

[00:39:05]Yeah, where are the cyberpunks?

[00:39:09]Who look at this and go, "Eh, no. I want something else."

[00:39:14]I think the AI agents are going to want something else. And you know what? The humans may want it in advance.

[00:39:20]Because if Ethereum and Solana start moving, then okay, yeah, then everyone's going to start paying attention again.

[00:39:28]Now in all coins, everything but Ethereum and Solana are moving.

[00:39:35]Like one of the things I think that is a leading indicator for ETH, or so I'm hoping, is Arrow.

[00:39:43]And the beautiful thing about Arrow is whether you can see it or not see it.

[00:39:49]Okay.

[00:39:50]Arrow is taking out the 200-day moving average.

[00:39:55]Now sometimes Arrow does these big moves and then retraces.

[00:39:59]Okay, but money flow's not ridiculous.

[00:40:03]Arrow broke out of its little, you know, formation that it had down here from Lux Algo.

[00:40:10]Right? It held the trend line.

[00:40:13]I mean Arrow was at $1, like $1.20, and it's now at 50 cents and it's now up 14% and ETH is trying [snorts] to follow it.

[00:40:27]As you go along over the weekend, if you don't have geopolitical news that forces crypto lower, what could you have on Sunday night? Or what could you have on Taco Tuesday?

[00:40:41]I I don't think, you know, people are not doing the math here.

[00:40:45]Right? Clarity Act, geopolitical, like I don't I don't know. We're we're over it, maybe?

[00:40:52]And sovereigns are just acting so weird.

[00:40:57]Right?

[00:40:58]It's you know, it's like their behavior gets worse.

[00:41:03]Their central banks are in bigger and bigger pickles. Like we know the Bank of Japan is in a pickle, but so is this guy, Worsch.

[00:41:12]I mean, what what is he going to do?

[00:41:14]He's going to have to do what he doesn't want to do.

[00:41:18]Which is push money into the system to keep the system from cracking. And that'll work for a period of months until it doesn't.

[00:41:27]That's later.

[00:41:29]But right now, I don't think anybody is like feeling it.

[00:41:35]Like no one's feeling it in XRP. There's nothing to even talk about on the charts. Nothing.

[00:41:42]It's It's like it's not there.

[00:41:45]Which you know, which is really kind of strange.

[00:41:50]Right? I I mean, you know, like base coins are up today, like Moonwell is up.

[00:41:57]You know, I see Jasmy is up 8% Sui is up 5% now above a dollar.

[00:42:05]Right? And I bet SEI is up, too.

[00:42:08]Now, what do SEI and Sui have in common?

[00:42:12]Well, uh they're both Coinbase coins, they're both layer ones, and they're both super fast.

[00:42:19]SEI actually led the rally on the way up in 2024.

[00:42:25]In 2024, it was not about Sui, it was about SEI. Here's the chart.

[00:42:37]This is SEI in 2021 from 11 cents to a dollar.

[00:42:47]Now, not trying to make a case either way for either one of these coins, but this is the second day in a row, or the third day in a row, that the fast layer ones are moving.

[00:42:59]Crypto Princess tuning in.

[00:43:02]Make sure you follow Crypto Princess on her YouTube channel, >> [snorts] >> where we do stuff on Tuesday. Appreciate the love. Coming in in evening time in London.

[00:43:13]Right? London tuning in to the market update. Appreciate that.

[00:43:19]People, do not underestimate, do not underestimate what this perky bid, it's called a bottom-up rally. So, for example, in stocks, when they start buying, say, the S&P futures contract, or they start buying, you know, like the stocks in the Dow, okay? That's a top-down rally, where the big stocks lead. I mean, in crypto, it would be Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, right? The big the big cryptos.

[00:43:50]The reverse of that is called a bottom-up rally, right? Where the small the small cryptos are pushing from below. Just like, you know, say, small cap stocks, or way back in the day, Nasdaq was small cap stocks.

[00:44:07]the speculative stuff starts popping up underneath it.

[00:44:11]The speculative stuff may take a break.

[00:44:14]And then boom.

[00:44:16]The big stuff goes.

[00:44:21]Is it ridiculous?

[00:44:24]I don't know.

[00:44:25]But it's happening.

[00:44:27]It's It's definitely happening.

[00:44:30]And ironically, it's happening on base and coinbase coins. Like Moonwell, deep.

[00:44:37]You know.

[00:44:38]Someone's on coinbase going, "Hey, let's get after this stuff."

[00:44:45]Or they're on base, either way.

[00:44:48]Right? I mean, if the base ecosystem goes, you know, Monero is now above 400.

[00:45:01]>> [snorts] >> And the thing that's so funny about Monero is are these wicks.

[00:45:14]We're doing kind of a TA show-ish.

[00:45:17]>> [snorts] >> Right? When you look at Monero, every time it goes up, they sell. You know, up, they sell, up, they sell. They smash it, up, they sell again.

[00:45:29]Okay? And if that doesn't work, look at all this green grass.

[00:45:35]Like the bigger the base, the higher in the space.

[00:45:41]But why can't this happen?

[00:45:45]This This can't happen, right? It can't It can't It can't happen.

[00:45:49]You're going to tell me it can't happen.

[00:45:52]Please tell me it can't happen.

[00:45:53]>> [snorts] >> Cuz it can happen. It's happening right now.

[00:45:57]So, I mean, you know, I I'm using it like Toby Ward, I'm showing her some of these charts, and she storms out of my office and goes, "Yeah, it's alt season right now." This is the woman who 2 years ago forbade me to say the word alt season.

[00:46:16]She's like, "The market's going to move in sectors and buckets." And of course, that was all accurate.

[00:46:21]And now she's like, "No, no, no, no, no.

[00:46:23]Now it's alt season." So, the person who said, "Don't ever say alt season." is saying alt season and has been for 4 days. Yet, in the cryptoverse, we're all sitting around going, "Gee, a flock of them flew over that time. Interesting."

[00:46:38]No, people. Yeah, it is interesting, but it's not just interesting if they if they start pushing the big cryptos along with it. You can't underestimate the speed. Like, even if you even if you're bearish, right?

[00:46:54]>> [snorts] >> There hasn't been a bear market rally yet. Like, you could argue these like 15, 20% moves in some of these altcoins are kind of like mini bear market rallies. Okay, maybe.

[00:47:05]But normally, a bear market rally can be you know, you can they can be 60 or 70%.

[00:47:11]And when you get them, they're vertical.

[00:47:13]Just like remember I showed we showed semiconductors. I mean, that's not a bear market, but I mean, that's what bear market rallies look like.

[00:47:20]Like, when people get too negative, right? And everyone sells out, and everyone gets short, and it goes straight up. It goes up 60 or 70%.

[00:47:29]That's why I'm saying, "Oh oh oh, Bitcoin can go to 107."

[00:47:34]Because everybody who doesn't like it then has to get invested in it, and I'm not talking about crypto people. I'm really talking about people in legacy.

[00:47:44]I'm talking about people in legacy.

[00:47:46]Because they they don't own it, and they don't want to own it. They they they they don't. They don't want to own stocks, never mind going into Bitcoin and you know, other assorted crypto ETFs.

[00:47:59]You know aloha out there. Appreciate that.

[00:48:03]All right, let's let's let's let's welcome who's here. We have bull runner and zepatus. Welcome Spartans forever.

[00:48:11]Gary, welcome to the show. Baby whale from Texas in the house.

[00:48:16]MJ hits, odd dark a member, hourglass crypto.

[00:48:22]Right.

[00:48:25]I need a walking treadmill.

[00:48:28]Right, my left knee would love a treadmill. My right knee would not, but I get it. Oh my God, Dale Dale coppered from the lovely country of Ireland.

[00:48:39]I went there once for a wedding and gave a speech. They didn't understand one word I said. And I couldn't understand either, but the beer was fantastic.

[00:48:47]Fantastic.

[00:48:49]Cohen schwebs, Nelly, Mojo.

[00:48:52]I got out, hourglass. Welcome.

[00:48:57]Fish meets, Tron. Yes, we talked about it.

[00:49:02]Sent [snorts] the goat trophy and a thousand jewels. GG, we appreciate that.

[00:49:08]G start, doge looks like Avax like a ski jump.

[00:49:15]Dude.

[00:49:16]Dude, the stuff that has speed. Do you remember this in crypto like, hey, let's get a layer one with big throughput that moves fast like Raul Paul and his sui thesis? Does anybody remember this?

[00:49:27]Anybody? Nobody remembers this stuff.

[00:49:32]This can go on for two months.

[00:49:35]Three months.

[00:49:37]You can have May, June, and July.

[00:49:42]In kind of classic fashion, right? Like everybody gets all hot over the summer and then come August and September, everybody thinks it's going to keep going.

[00:49:52]and it doesn't.

[00:49:54]It goes the other way.

[00:49:56]In other words, if you're super negative, just wait.

[00:49:59]>> [laughter] >> You're going to get your chance.

[00:50:01]But in the meantime, this thing looks like it wants to go nuts. And Farmer Sam Forrest is here from Budapest.

[00:50:11]>> [snorts] >> You know, what one day I'll come visit all these people in all these different places, you know, like I like the idea of a guy in Budapest and a guy in Ireland. I imagine the guy in Budapest at some nice cafe, maybe.

[00:50:23]They have nice cafes in Budapest. The guy in Ireland at a bar, you know, we got to go see everybody at all the different places that they're at. Don't forget to what's up with the 200-day moving average in XRP.

[00:50:37]>> [snorts] >> A lot of people want to get XRP going.

[00:50:44]It's funny how XRP won't get going. It's it's kind of funny.

[00:50:48]The 200-day moving average in XRP is at a $1.71.

[00:50:54]And here's what's funny about XRP. We're going to do that. Let's do it.

[00:51:00]Big Daddy Crypto, $20 super chat. Wow, thank you.

[00:51:06]>> [snorts] >> Okay, so XRP, right?

[00:51:11]Lux Algo making me a nice triangle.

[00:51:17]And as XRP moves closer and closer to the apex, that's decision day. So, whatever way the breakout is, if the breakout's to the downside, it's going to be a mess. If the breakout's to the upside, it's going to go crazy.

[00:51:30]And you got the Clarity Act coming up. I don't know. I I I cannot figure out a reason to be negative this, particularly when it's in an ETF.

[00:51:39]As soon as Ripple stops selling. That's a joke.

[00:51:42]Okay, so we talked about Arrow before, right? It taken out the 200-day moving average, but we'd be happy to do it again.

[00:51:51]Okay, let's look at it over here on the mark.

[00:51:56]Which is harder to see in the tick tock view.

[00:52:13]Okay, calling up AERO.

[00:52:17]Huh.

[00:52:19]Okay, let's try it again.

[00:52:21]A E R O.

[00:52:24]Okay.

[00:52:27]So, let's look at it on Coinbase.

[00:52:38]Your daily chart coming up.

[00:52:53]There's your base.

[00:52:56]And this is what higher into space means. Taking out resistance at 47 cents.

[00:53:04]Next level.

[00:53:07]65 cents.

[00:53:09]Big Daddy Crypto, welcome.

[00:53:11]Becoming a member on the screen.

[00:53:13]Appreciate that.

[00:53:17]You know what Big Daddy Crypto is after, right?

[00:53:20]Toby's list of all coins, which is still very relevant.

[00:53:24]Very relevant.

[00:53:27]Look at this. AERO weekly.

[00:53:30]>> [snorts] >> Taking out 50 cents.

[00:53:35]Okay, that's a Demark point from the takeoff back in June.

[00:53:40]So, of course, in classic cryptocurrency fashion, so first [snorts] we have to penetrate the the support, then we hold.

[00:53:49]That was January. And then, of course, they have to take it down for 5 months.

[00:53:54]This is weekly.

[00:53:56]So, here's the support, and then what do we have to do? Well, we have to take it below the support for 5 months and make it look like total you know what.

[00:54:05]And then what do we do? Oh, well, we bring it back.

[00:54:11]We just bring it back.

[00:54:13]Right?

[00:54:15]We bring it back.

[00:54:17]In other words, they got they got everybody sucked in to think that they don't have to buy it.

[00:54:26]They don't have to buy it. They can just wait or leave it or just become disinterested or get distracted by stocks and UFOs.

[00:54:36]And possibly even this geopolitical situation.

[00:54:39]In other words, the geopolitical situation is either going to go away or there are going to be massive implications later.

[00:54:50]Right right now what the market is doing, even though it's annoying, is it's annoying for the bears, is the market is climbing the wall of worry.

[00:54:59]Like, oh my god, I'm worried about consumer confidence. Or oh my god, we're worried about credit cards. Or oh my god, we're worried about the geopolitical situation.

[00:55:07]The market climbs the wall of worry.

[00:55:09]Then, after it climbs the wall of worry, people go, well, I guess there's nothing to worry about, and then boom.

[00:55:16]That's when it happens.

[00:55:18]It bizarre psychology.

[00:55:20]It's completely different than all coins. In all coins, there's nothing to do. There's nothing to participate in.

[00:55:26]It doesn't matter. Oh my god, Big Daddy Crypto.

[00:55:29]>> [snorts] >> Tao. Yeah, let's look at it, bro.

[00:55:32]Let's look at it.

[00:55:35]Okay, I guess the good news about Daddy crypto is that he is uh uh he must be seeing the charts. So, that's good. At least I got that working on on Tik Tok mode.

[00:55:49]Okay.

[00:55:53]So, a couple things to note on TAO, right?

[00:56:06]So, I'm seeing this.

[00:56:13]This is a head and shoulders what This is a head and shoulders bottom with an upward sloping neckline.

[00:56:26]That's one way to do it, or it's just a rising channel.

[00:56:31]Either way.

[00:56:32]>> [snorts] >> Now, if you take out 424 in TAO, this is this kind of idea. You know, and I I I know it's a little bit, you know, pie in the sky, but if you if you take out this level and you don't do any big retracement bull back below it, you can have substantial upside beyond what the normal target would be.

[00:57:01]That's number one.

[00:57:04]Number two, if you come over here to DeMark, Okay, this is TAO weekly.

[00:57:19]You got a 13 bottom.

[00:57:22]Okay, and believe it or not, that 13 bottom has not been confirmed yet.

[00:57:27]It might be confirmed this week, especially if you take out this to mark moving average. This is Tao weekly.

[00:57:35]There's the 13 bottom.

[00:57:38]You get a confirmed 13 bottom on the weekly chart of Tao.

[00:57:43]It's a nice way of saying the uptrend hasn't started yet.

[00:57:49]This could be on the daily chart. This is the pause that refreshes.

[00:57:54]Okay, you go straight up, you get this nine top, you know, that could be it or it could be like over here.

[00:58:02]Where you got the nine top, you got the pause. This one lasted a couple days, kind of faked you out and then boom.

[00:58:10]I'm just thinking in Tao, you know, resistance is at 341.

[00:58:15]This is a shoulder.

[00:58:22]This is a shoulder. This is a head. This is a shoulder.

[00:58:29]I don't know, man.

[00:58:31]Uh I I I don't know.

[00:58:36]I don't know how you how you could fade this. In other words, let's just think about it.

[00:58:44]You find an old coin and you buy I don't know. You you buy a 3% dip, you buy a sideways day, you buy it when it's red.

[00:58:54]And [snorts] I don't know. I don't know.

[00:58:56]What what can you afford to risk in a highly volatile old coin?

[00:59:00]8% You know, if you're putting in 1% of your capital or a half a percent of your total capital, you know, you probably have to give a volatile old coin 8 to 10%, you know, don't don't buy it up 20%, but you got to give it some room. What what's your upside?

[00:59:20]Wow, Big Daddy Crypto is after it today.

[00:59:29]Tao versus Bitcoin.

[00:59:42]Okay, it's pretty simple.

[00:59:45]So, if you look at Tao versus Bitcoin, we've already had the pause that refreshed.

[00:59:53]We've already had it.

[00:59:55]This is a logical day for a pullback.

[00:59:58]That's what that number four means.

[01:00:00]And that's what you're getting. You're getting a pullback in Tao versus Bitcoin.

[01:00:05]Yesterday, we were looking at Solana versus Bitcoin and laughing.

[01:00:17]Oh my god, look at this.

[01:00:20]This is Tao versus Bitcoin on a daily Lux Algo chart.

[01:00:28]See this like triangular range that this thing is in?

[01:00:31]This is why Lux Algo is you know, this is why I like it.

[01:00:35]Cuz it draws these things, you know, that you know, the DeMark system and the Lux Algo system which goes in TradingView. I mean, you know, this this shows like you're crossing equilibrium and Tao versus Bitcoin has huge upside to the top of this triangular formation that Lux Algo is drawing.

[01:01:00]This is not overbought. If anything, it's you know, it's underappreciated.

[01:01:05]Do you believe the market has bottomed?

[01:01:08]Yes.

[01:01:10]Yes.

[01:01:12]In other words, I I'll tell you what I believe. I I'll make it very simple.

[01:01:25]>> So, if if you pull up total crypto market cap, right?

[01:01:30]And you go, "Okay, well, what what's what's actually happening?"

[01:01:36]I I'll I'll explain it to you.

[01:01:40]After I share the screen.

[01:01:45]Okay.

[01:01:46]So, here we go.

[01:01:51]So, we discussed the possibility that this was wave one up and then wave two down.

[01:02:01]But sometimes wave two can be complicated.

[01:02:07]And it's very simple.

[01:02:11]It's just a good old-fashioned consolidation.

[01:02:15]In other words, you can't go up for years and not consolidate.

[01:02:22]Right? I mean, this is straight up pretty much since 2022.

[01:02:26]So, you'll go down to 60.

[01:02:29]And then you'll go up to 107.

[01:02:33]Something like that.

[01:02:35]And then you'll go back down here again.

[01:02:38]You won't go to 60, but you might go to 70.

[01:02:41]And then that'll be in Rectember.

[01:02:45]And then when it's all said and done, after the fall debacle, you have your triangle.

[01:02:56]Now, I know I was being a moon boy earlier and talking about 130, but maybe 130 is December or January.

[01:03:06]I don't I don't understand why this can't happen.

[01:03:09]This happens all the time.

[01:03:12]I mean, it happened over here.

[01:03:17]I I mean, this this is what this is what the thing did over here.

[01:03:22]This is total crypto market cap.

[01:03:26]This happened before.

[01:03:29]>> [snorts] >> No one and I talked about this on Princess E's show. When you have people who are extremely bullish and you have people who are extremely bearish, you know where the market goes? Nowhere.

[01:03:42]Nowhere.

[01:03:43]It's It's in a range.

[01:03:45]Now when you get everybody negative like in stonks, it goes straight up. When you get everybody bullish like in Bitcoin at 125, it goes straight down.

[01:03:55]It happened to me. It happens to everybody.

[01:04:00]Right?

[01:04:02]All right, we have We have Brian coming in and super chatting for ZBCN.

[01:04:09]I I guess TikTok mode is working on the TA. That's good news.

[01:04:15]Okay.

[01:04:16]ZBCN, I have I have a perpetual I have a perpetual contract on Bybit.

[01:04:29]>> [snorts] >> So, ZBCN weekly.

[01:04:34]What do you see?

[01:04:36]Well, you see a huge rally and then Lux Algo and this is what it does, it puts that support shelf underneath it.

[01:04:44]So that when it dips, you're selling it into a support shelf.

[01:04:49]>> [snorts] >> Same thing on the daily chart.

[01:04:55]Right? I mean this did get a little bit frothy, right? On this move from 0.002 to 0.0035.

[01:05:05]But there's a lot of support here.

[01:05:09]I'm not selling into support. I'm not selling stuff at the discount zone. I'm not. I'm looking for somewhere to get long, period.

[01:05:19]Period.

[01:05:22]What can you get long? I don't know.

[01:05:23]Anything that makes sense.

[01:05:26]Anything that makes sense.

[01:05:33]s a i r i Okay, we we talk about this a lot in these small coins.

[01:05:46]Right?

[01:05:48]Or in these coins that gap up.

[01:05:51]The key is what happens at the 62% retracement.

[01:05:58]You're basically sitting on it right now.

[01:06:01]Like these coins that go all the way up and then all the way back down, you want to see them hit 62%.

[01:06:10]They always go below it, but you like it when it comes back above it and this cluster of X waves is interesting.

[01:06:18]You know, do you see how when you got these three X waves here, that you eventually took it out?

[01:06:24]That's what can happen. You can just keep taking them out. So, we'll see.

[01:06:30]I I'm okay with this above the 62%.

[01:06:34]Again, if you held on and you suffered through all of this, I mean, there's there's a lot of suffering in crypto.

[01:06:43]Right? The cry in crypto.

[01:06:45]Yeah, there's a lot of suffering.

[01:06:48]Why live with all the suffering and then not be there if I don't know. Maybe you only get two or three big months this year.

[01:07:00]This is what I'm trying to say, right?

[01:07:01]Like when I draw the consolidation, it's like, you know, this market is horrible, right? Straight down and then dies. So, it looks like bear market and then mini winter.

[01:07:12]Okay?

[01:07:13]Well, what happens if it goes, you know, you get spring to summer like in Texas.

[01:07:18]You get 2 days of 70° or 4 days of 70° and then it goes right to 95. That does happen in Texas.

[01:07:25]What happens if that happens in all coins? Are are you ready for that?

[01:07:29]I just there's no question in my mind when you look at this price action, people and crypto hedge funds are absolutely not ready for that. And they probably won't until you get one of these big 5% up days in the bitcoins, assuming that happens.

[01:07:45]Right? In other words, even if you're negative, even if you're negative, it feels like that bear market rally is is is coming, right? Where it's like, "Oh, no, you know, we're short and we're under invested and we're worried about stuff and we're climbing the wall of worry." All right.

[01:08:04]So, I don't want to go on and on and on and on. Big Daddy Crypto using that using that Batman emoji that he now has access to as a YouTube member. Big Daddy Crypto, a Spartan Colonel, a a member, a guy who's back, right? I appreciate you coming back, sir.

[01:08:23]Uh he's showing you how much fun you can have as a member. Nelly Manson is also here along with Joseph Green, a member.

[01:08:32]Welcome, sir. Welcome back.

[01:08:36]Okay, ladies and gentlemen, that was your TikTok style TA stream. Thank you for letting me know that. Uh Tuesday, I will be out of pocket for a couple of days with a medical procedure. Okay? Not trivial, but not life and death. Or so we hope.

[01:08:56]Now, like Big Daddy Crypto, you would like to get over to the member areas so you can get the altcoin lists, which we have left and published and kept simple.

[01:09:09]Sometimes we go crazy and publish 20 lists. This time we kept it simple.

[01:09:15]Thank you for watching the market update. Thank you for being customers.

[01:09:19]Thank you for watching on TikTok.

[01:09:22]Thank you.

[01:09:23]Cryptocurrency is for the people. Go out and be one of those people. We'll see you soon.