🚨 URGENT: [BE READY NOW] Volatility SIGNALS Caution!!

追加: 2026-05-23

[00:00:06]What's up everyone? It's Carlton with Money Vest. So, markets here essentially flat, still looking at closing a winning week as US and Iran talks continue. Iran also came back and said that we are looking to keep enrich nuclear essentially within the country, which again we're going to find out more updates on what President Trump says and how this progresses moving forward because we are really, really looking forward to some kind of resolution pretty soon here. All because of oil prices. Oil prices are the big key anchor for this market which we have discussed in our previous updates as well.

[00:00:43]And in my opinion, I think the longer this goes on, the more problematic and damaging this can be for inflation. As we already talked about yesterday that the FOMC minutes are also showing for the Federal Reserve to no longer consider cutting rates anymore, but instead look at raising interest rates and the need for raising interest rates if inflation stays elevated and continues to get aggravated because of higher oil and energy prices. As we already know, 18 18% is the growth year-over-year for energy and as per the CPI report and of course we are seeing it up to 3.8% is the CPI number for for the most latest report here. So, less than a month left. Kevin Warsh has fully taken over as the Federal Reserve chairman and less than a month left for the next FOMC meeting, which is going to be very, very important. I'm sure 3.75% is the current interest rates.

[00:01:36]Unemployment rate stays at 4.3% and the Money Vest Index remains in optimism at 3.58 for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq here 3.59 as we did see the markets essentially stay flat on the day. We had the S&P up 17 basis points and Nasdaq was barely up and the Dow Jones pushing higher over 55 basis points here. So, today was again one of those days where we did see a little bit of momentum towards some of the more value-oriented stocks because of the Dow Jones pushing higher more than the Nasdaq as well. And the market breadth also actually improved.

[00:02:11]My portfolio was slightly down about 11 basis points to just over $2,000. Total gain sitting at just under 483,000 dollars here. And if you take a look at the market breadth, again, it's been getting better, right? Market breadth is actually improving as more and more stocks are trading back above their moving averages. And a lot of that liquidity is actually coming out of technology, out of the Nasdaq moving into those other parts, utilities, materials, industrials. Those are the kind of sectors that liquidity is also moving towards. Market concentration, so again, a very, very flat day. 91 billion dollars is where we are right now. We got the volatility dashboard, volatility getting crushed another 3.9, almost 4% sitting at under 17. We are in the 44th percentile now. And just to give you a bit of an idea on where we would be pretty rare on the downside because we do talk about the rarity on the upside, but on the downside, if it trades below 14, we'd already be 25th percentile, but anything closer to 12. So, if if the volatility drops another four points, we'd be in the 10th percentile, which would be quite rare, which would be quite unusual for volatility for us to see it that low. I mean, we've seen it low. I mean, we've seen it as low as 10.

[00:03:23]But, again, given the market environment as we continue to see that momentum, volatility coming down to those levels is going to be a bit of a flashing yellow signal that we need to be a lot more cautious, be more cash ready, be more prepared because VIX can spike any day now given how low it is at the moment. So, keep a close eye on it. Of course, 16.76 is still pretty normal, 44th percentile, but the lower it gets down to the more interesting things become. And the on the dashboard also back at 85th percentile as the markets are recovering. 66.6 is where we are and spy seasonality shows the month of May as again a very strong month so far. This would be the seventh straight month of May with the gains. 3.28% the last month of May that we actually saw losses was I believe back in 2019. So 2019 was the last time and then prior to that another six straight years of gains in the month of May and then of course 2012, 2011, 2010 were all red for the month of May.

[00:04:26]So May also has a pretty strong win rate. In fact, it might be the highest 74%. November is the highest 77%, 76.9% but the next strongest month is indeed the month of May. So it's not surprising the month of May is actually very strong but summer seasonality is going to start to dwindle starting June 61% then 69% then 61% again and then of course we head into the worst month of the year which has always been the case for September. September is brutal for the market as it always has been and not just a little bit brutal but like really brutal.

[00:05:00]5%, 9%, 4.7%, another 4% sell off here.

[00:05:05]2.6%, 1.5%, 7%, another 9%. So yeah, September is not the best month for the market. Usually I mean it's the best month for the market for me because we get a lot of deals and discounts and opportunities but of course from a objective standpoint yes the markets do end up pulling back quite a bit in that month. But month of May so far so good.

[00:05:26]Earnings calendar is starting to wrap up. We do have Broadcom reporting next week or actually the week after but next week we do have AutoZone, we got Zscaler, we got Costco, we got Dell, Marvell, we got Bristol Myers, Salesforce, again some more retail and software names and then if you come over to the first week of June that's when Broadcom is going to be reporting. Palo Alto Networks is going to be reporting and then we also do have Dollar General again some more retail and some software cybersecurity companies semiconductor stocks including Lululemon that is going to be reporting on on Thursday June 4th as well.

[00:06:00]In terms of economic calendar on a high impact item basis we don't really have much this week is pretty wrapped up.

[00:06:06]Next week we do have the PCE numbers coming out consumer sentiment consumer confidence numbers as well as durable goods orders personal income personal spending you know savings rate all that stuff is going to be coming out on Thursday May 28th. Now before we get any further make sure that you drop a like please subscribe to the channel if you haven't already I would really appreciate that and link is going to be down below if you're interested in joining. There is an annual 20% discount available until the end of this month so another nine days eight days left if you want to take advantage of this you get access to all the trade alerts members only videos portfolio updates as well as the MoneyVest website which has access to the shopping list the the tools the MoneyVest index of course as well as calculators if you want to calculate your fair values for individual stocks and a bunch of content as well. So a lot of educational videos over 200 plus pre-recorded videos that are already included on the Patreon as well. So link's going to be down below if you're interested in joining any questions email me at [email protected] and I'm more than happy to help schedule a call get on call with you and really go over everything answer all your questions because our goal really as a community generally is to help each other grow and essentially lean on each other when we want to talk about the markets finance investing money everything. So it's a very very good group of people in my opinion solid solid people very blessed for this community. So a lot of consolidation for oil keep a close eye on where this also goes because again like I said the higher the oil goes the more damaging the impacts longer term on currency on energy prices on inflation overall not just in the US but everywhere in the world India is suffering from it Europe is starting to suffer for it because of the shortages inventory starting to deplete.

[00:07:46]And then of course the US also has seen gas prices go up substantially over the last one year.

[00:07:50]So oil is still going to be a big anchor which is going to directly you know affect interest rates which is why the market in my personal opinion right now it continues to kind of underestimate you know where the risk is. There is a bit of a blind spot in this market right now I feel because of where oil is and where inflation is going and where interest rates might be. But the market seems to not care about that right now which is okay. I mean we've seen we've gone through this periods of markets exuberance where there is a lot of irrationality and the market seem to not really care about the the systemic issues that are brewing underneath and the market just cares about okay earnings are strong semiconductor and AI is booming. There's a lot of euphoria there's a lot of greed. Let me just go ahead and buy and buy and buy and there's every dip is getting started to bought up right very very quickly. And if you come over to semi stocks here you know we're seeing again a lot of momentum QBTS so quantum you know is pushing up over 33% absolutely insane rally. This was part of our investor memo so again if you come over here you can pretty much see the quantum computing the final frontier long term D-Wave computing QBTS. And again this is for free available on our Patreon. You don't have to do anything you don't need to pay you just have to sign up for free and you will be able to access this on our platform. So you can download this PDF and you can check out this entire investor memo which I shared these are the next decade opportunities the themes the sectors that we want to look for which goes over AI compute energy and the next generation infrastructure the final frontier which is the quantum computing. So again high bandwidth memory nuclear energy power grids optical AI quantum computing is right here number six and we also did mention of course QBTS which is D-Wave.

[00:09:29]So again pushing up 33% very strong ARM had a pretty strong day all time high 16% higher than this right here Lumantum up another 11% Lumantum is also part of it. So, if you scroll up a little bit, uh you will notice Lumentum as part of the um right here somewhere. What was it part of? Let me just check. Uh I think it's like the optical AI. So, optical There we go. So, Lumentum light, right? So, L I T E. So, optical AI silicon photonics.

[00:09:56]Lumentum L I T E also part of that investor memo, up another 11% almost almost getting up to almost $1,000 again. So, yeah. Download it. It's for free, available on our Patreon. Join if you really want to. Uh and then starting with S&P 500. So, resistance is going to stay put at 7,500. As we have discussed, that's pretty much the all-time high.

[00:10:14]Support level is going to stay put down at 7330, all the way down to 7175, close to 7200 on the S&P 500. The Nasdaq here also bouncing right back higher.

[00:10:23]Resistance all the way up to 26, 27,000 on the Nasdaq. Support level is going to stay put roughly at 25,600 for the Nasdaq as well. So, we're seeing a little bit of consolidation sideways um from this market. Coming over to Apple, continues to sit at near all-time highs. I do think that Apple's being treated as a little bit of a safety trade, you know, right now, given that Apple is the staple for this market. It's a very cash-heavy stock. Support level is going to stay put at 288 down to 280 bucks for Apple moving forward. Amazon, on the other hand, we're seeing a little bit of this lower highs and lower lows consolidation, but starting to move back higher, 1.3%. So, that's good to see.

[00:11:00]Tesla, on the other hand, also validating that support at 415 for 16. We got a resistance all the way up to as much as 450 now for Tesla. At least for right now, that's going to be that level uh to keep in mind and a support level that's going to stay put roughly at 415 down to as low as 383 for Tesla. Uh coming over to Nvidia. Nvidia here also pulling back. Support level is going to stay put at 216 for Nvidia with a resistance all the way up to as much as 236. Quite an non-eventful day here for Nvidia even after the earnings. So, not really moving much, but holding above that support at 216. But again, the max pain here for 212 for this Friday is still valid. If it actually trades closer to 212 below 212, we're looking at maximum amount of contracts expiring out of the money, and most options buyers are going to feel that pain. Uh resistance for AMD is going to stay put at 471. Do still have a little bit of a downside gap to fill in support level 359 360 for AMD.

[00:11:55]And Broadcom on the other hand also seeing a lot of consolidation. Sideways support level is going to stay put at 406 bucks resistance all the way up to 437 438 for Broadcom. So again, a lot of consolidation.

[00:12:06]Sideways is what we're seeing. If you do get a breakdown below this 352 is going to be that next level to watch for Broadcom. Uh coming over to Meta Platforms and Meta here consolidating sideways. Support level is going to stay put right about here close to 600 bucks for Meta. We do have that upside gap to fill in with a resistance all the way up to 683 684 for Meta with a very strong support down to 593 594 down to 5 580 bucks for Meta as well. Netflix on the other hand also starting to move back higher. Resistance is going to stay put roughly at 90 bucks for Netflix. Support level is going to stay put at 81 82 dollars. If you do get a breakout, next target all the way up to 100 dollars.

[00:12:43]Netflix is in my opinion looking pretty attractive here um at these levels. And coming over to Google, again consolidating sideways. Support level is going to stay put at 378 with a resistance all the way up to 400 dollars for Google. And Microsoft here also consolidating sideways. Very strong support down to 410 with a resistance up to 434 for Microsoft. And finally, Palantir is still struggling to break above 137. Uh this is going to be that resistance to watch. Uh beyond that, we're going to be looking at 144 145 with a very strong support down at 125 for Palantir. So hope you all enjoy this video and a complete update on this market. Again, links going to be down below if you're interested in joining.

[00:13:23]This entire Investor Memo PDF available for free for you to download uh on our Patreon, but there is also a 20% annual discount available until the end of this month. Any questions, email me at [email protected], and I'm more than happy to help. As always, happy investing. I'll see you all in the next video.