'Tsunami effect': Hormuz blockade impacts global supply chains, developing countries curtail imports

Added: 2026-05-08

[00:00:00]Well, to discuss, I'm joined now on the program by Amina Bakr. She is the head of Middle East energy and OPEC plus research at Kepler and she joins us from Dubai. Hello to you and thanks for speaking to France 24.

[00:00:15]Thank you so much for having me. And look, let's start if we can with the oil prices. We've obviously seen such turbulence, that major spike yesterday.

[00:00:24]What's your sense as to why the oil price reached that particular height on Thursday?

[00:00:32]Well, we're still seeing very tight restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, actually. And with this blockade, it's also preventing Iranian vessels from from passing. What we're monitoring is that the blockade is is preventing Iran from exporting. We're seeing Iran load a lot of their crude onto empty vessels, but they're unable to leave the strait.

[00:00:55]So, that's adding to the constraint of the supply to the market. Moreover, add that there is no sign of de-escalation. In fact, it's quite the opposite. There are lots of predictions around the conflict resuming or the blockade remaining in place. So, all of these factors put together led to higher oil price and I think the higher higher oil prices are are going to remain for for some time.

[00:01:21]>> Do you think anything can be done now to try and calm concerns of investors?

[00:01:28]Well, we've seen headlines and announcement by President Trump. Those have kind of worked on a sentiment level. Whenever he says that the conflict is near drawing or a resolution has been found or he's just about to sign a deal with Iran, traders react to those headlines. But in reality and what we're watching is that, you know, you have 12 million barrels that are still shut in from the Middle East. You have nearly no flows out of Hormuz, which usually, you know, we had 20 million barrels flowing out of there. So, reality and sentiment are kind of very different from each other. Could we possibly see some calming messages? Yes, it's possible, but I don't think now they're going to have a really big impact on prices unless the conflict really comes to an end. And look, the the head of the International Energy Agency, the world's leading energy economist, has said, "Look, this is the biggest energy crisis in modern history." As you suggest, this could drag on for some time. If that is the case, in a tangible sense, if the oil can't get out of the Gulf, what kind of impact do you think we're going to see in countries in Asia in particular that are so reliant on Gulf oil?

[00:02:46]The the impact is huge and we're already seeing a lot of developing countries curtail their their imports. There had been measures taken for some countries.

[00:02:58]They're asking their their their citizens to work from home and I mean, it's not just with oil, it's all the supply chain. So, this has ramifications on the global economy and we're going to continue to see that.

[00:03:13]Even, I mean, developed economies are exposed here. There is I mean, the head of the IEA clearly stated that, you know, there are limited stocks of jet fuel, for example, in in Europe left.

[00:03:24]So, we're going to see a huge I mean, it's like a tsunami effect. You don't see it right away, but when it happens, it's it's very severe.

[00:03:33]You're talking about a tsunami effect, something that could really impact the energy markets for a long time to come. Adding to the complexity now, we have the United Arab Emirates today officially leaving OPEC. And that is something that experts say may not have an impact on this crisis that we're talking about right now, but you know, months, years to come is really going to reshape the economy of the region.

[00:04:00]What's your sense?

[00:04:02]The leaving of the UAE from OPEC, this is something that the country has been thinking about for some time. And the reason they announced it now is that the UAE is kind of in the process of reviewing a lot of its relationship, a lot of its memberships and international organizations and institutions. And they feel like at this time, it's their sovereign right to withdraw from the organization and have the flexibility to produce more oil once the strait opens. As you rightfully said, it doesn't have an impact now because we're having I mean, the strait is still closed. They can't start increasing production and increasing exports. Do I expect them to increase their production and exports higher than it was pre-war and when they were at OPEC? Sure, I think they will, but I think it's also going to happen in a gradual process. They're not going to flood the market per se. And for OPEC, I think the organization is going to survive this. It is a big hit because the UAE is a prominent member of the group and holds around 30% of the spare capacity that was in in the group. But OPEC itself, I mean, they faced the challenges and their main members, I mean, Saudi Arabia, Russia and the others still believe in market management. Just a final question for you then, Amina. Big picture, if you zoom out for us with all of this going on, the closure effectively of the Strait of Hormuz and the UAE quitting OPEC, um there is clearly a growing awareness, isn't there, in countries around the world that they can't rely on the oil in the Gulf. Do you think that that is going to lead to a bigger shift towards countries considering other sources of energy, green energy, to replace oil?

[00:05:49]I think it's going to create a movement towards two things. One, a realization that how much we depend on oil and and gas and there is a need to continue investing in the upstream sector because that's still part and a significant part of the energy mix. And second, is it going to accelerate the energy transition and, you know, investment in other forms of energy? I think it should as well and I think it will. So, I think it's just generally all countries are going to be focusing on energy security and I hope politicians don't have a short memory about this and remember what happened and start, you know, securing and buffering their countries against crises like these.

[00:06:30]Amina Bakr talking to us there from Kepler in Dubai. Great to get your analysis. Thank you so much.

[00:06:36]Thank you.