The Worlds Biggest Bear Is BACK...

Added: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]Well guys, Michael Bur is at it again, and this time he's claiming that the new IPOs of this year could be the end for this market. But with today's number being 111%, we need to talk about something else that's happening from Wall Street. With upgrades coming in for Nvidia, the stock hasn't reacted the same way. And over the last 24 hours, we got a whole bunch of different upgrades that we reported on in the previous video. So far, markets ramped up, but then they started to sell. So, is this a new trend when it comes to markets and what should we be focusing on when it comes to the most important sections of the world and of course these flows?

[00:00:37]Well, in today's video, we take a look at stocks, commodities, and cryptos, including the K-shaped economy that we seem to be facing right now. Guys, don't go anywhere. There's a lot going on when it comes to Wall Street, and there's a new number one transaction when it comes to a very big asset class. See you soon.

[00:00:59]Well, welcome back everybody to one of the largest daily shows on the planet when it comes to everything to do with markets. Whether you like macro, Wall Street flows, of which there is another new number one, or of course just options movements, we've got a lot of data to get into today. But it was a session where we saw semiconductors start to struggle and we want to talk about that at the beginning of today's show because of course the data surrounding it is starting to get interesting. But let's start off with Michael Bur because he's come out again and he believes the markets could be at an inflection point. With SpaceX IPO coming soon, Open AI and Anthropic, we could be in for a $4 trillion market cap of IPOs, the biggest ever. And inflation adjusted bigger than the dot boom. So why is this so important? Well, as we've been talking about on the channel, IPOs, IPOs, IPOs, and of course, earnings, earnings, earnings. This is what is so important to 2026. And if we see even a question of whether these markets are continuing to see growth in some of the hottest stocks in the world such as SanDisk and of course hardware and semiconductors, then all of a sudden we might be in for quite a volatile time.

[00:02:07]Now, so far that hasn't been what's happening. The buffins on Wall Street have actually been upgrading several stocks across the board. But we did notice something a little bit interesting over the last 24 hours.

[00:02:17]SanDisk was upgraded by Barclays. We also saw UBS upgrading of course Micron pretty heavily and those stocks while they did rally in the start of the session sold by the end of the day suggesting that maybe somebody was transacting near those tops. Now why is this important? Well, Nvidia actually has lost over 11% at one point over the last couple of sessions. In fact, it was over the our last eight sessions. And this means that $640 billion has approximately been wiped off the stock and that it also is starting to get into what we call correction territory. Now, this was off the back of some pretty big upgrades. So, we obviously saw Robert Bed upgrade Nvidia to $500 and many others upgrade to around that $300 price target. So, could it be that the Boffins are coming out and doing the upgrades, but the street itself is actually selling on the other side? It's something we have to continue to watch.

[00:03:11]Remember when we start getting these large moves such as SanDisk 8% in one day up then down then you start to pay attention. We're looking for the biggest transactions as well. Now I just want to kind of go through a bit of a summary here of one of the ways that markets tend to end. Now stocks don't bottom usually on good news. They actually do it when news gets less bad. And when it comes to tops we don't really top usually on bad news. We top when things can't possibly get any better.

[00:03:39]especially in rallies such as what we find ourselves here in in 2026. Now, are there some signs for concern? Well, one of those has to be the Bank of Japan as we see Japanese yields continue to climb up and put pressure on the intervention point. So, we've seen 160 before and we've seen the Bank of Japan get involved. Well, it's starting to creep up and maybe not enough people are talking about it. Now, so far it's done nothing. But, of course, when people ignore it the most, that's when you want to be paying attention. So 160 on the dollar yen that could put pressure on the Bank of Japan to get involved in markets again and it could put pressure on of course treasuries. So it's going to be one of those couple of weeks here where we want to be watching the US30 wise, the Japanese yields and that US dollar yen trade. And we'll update you guys here on the channel for that. So make sure to subscribe, smash that like button if you love this kind of stuff.

[00:04:29]So let's talk about the trillion dollar club because of course we've got three more companies uh coming in this year potentially. Michael Barry doesn't like that and I can see why and I'm sure a lot of you guys can see the similarities to the dot boom. Basically, we have companies that are all coming in at astronomically high overall valuations based on future earnings and based on basically if we don't see by 2030, let's say some type of significant gains, just so much burn in those companies that they'll actually end up going potentially bankrupt. So why is this so important? Well, when we start to get the trillion dollar club coming up like this, we have to think about concentration. And we already know that 41% of the S&P 500 is made up of tech stocks. And it's pretty much just a couple, like 10 literally. That's going to potentially become more compressed and concentrated. And we know that in the S&P 500, it's expected that these new IPOs are going to be included even faster as part of the new rules. Now, we already know Taiwan is bigger in terms of the market cap than India. South Korea, of course, is going absolutely bonkers. And this just goes to show that this is now becoming such a concentrated movement into hardware and AI that it better pay off. And if it doesn't, there's going to be some serious movements, guys. So buckle in I think for 2026 2027 as we continue to see really FOMO and then possibly even fear at some point as always tends to happen in markets especially when they go parabolic. Now let's talk about that big transaction. We've got one monster transaction here on Micron and since then the gap happened and the market actually opened up 8% above the previous price. Now, since then, it actually declined a little bit. And again, could that be someone on Wall Street saying, "Wow, you know, I'm pretty happy with that price. Fantastic move, guys.

[00:06:18]Congratulations." And they scale out.

[00:06:19]Remember, they do things a little bit differently to what most retail traders, what most people like you and I tend to do. Usually with retail, it's all in or all out, that kind of thing. You But on Wall Street and on the bigger movers, they tend to position in over time. And of course, that's why I'm a big fan of positionbased trading and investing. The idea is you do what they do, not what they say. And I think that's pretty important. Now, another massive transaction came in here from volume leaders. You can see and it was on a pair that no one is liking right now, which is Bitcoin. IBIT saw the number one transaction on it just at the low.

[00:06:55]It's actually bought straight after that because it was such a massive transaction. But since then, the actual price has gone down. Now, why is this important? Well, these number one positions often are inflection points.

[00:07:07]And although the stock has actually gone down, you can see here IBID actually has declined over 2%, it means that it's going to be one that we want to be watching over the next coming sessions and weeks because if we do reclaim this price and then start to move forward, it could suggest that a big player has actually entered into the market. Now, why is number one matter? Well, they don't really they're not in the game of losing money ideally. So, when you see monster transactions and it's a sweep, so unless this is literally someone saying, "I'm enough is enough. I've got to get out. I've got to get out. These types of large transactions uh tend to be ones that we need to pay attention to. So, number ones, they rarely disappoint in terms of ending up to create certain inflection points or certain large trends. Now, could still be down. Time will tell. We'll we'll figure it out. Now, we talked yesterday about the idea of a K-shaped economy.

[00:07:57]Most of you guys in the comments section tend to agree. There are people that are doing really well. There are people that are doing not so well indeed. And this is meaning that basically the top 10% of the US economy is or the top 10% of earners are spending pretty much all the money and everyone else isn't doing so well. And we are representing this on a chart right now that we've been tracking here on the channel. That really does go to show that the economy and the stock market have disconnected. And that's a problem for longerterm investors. not short-term, not what we're seeing right now in semiconductors, but if that doesn't turn around, it eventually comes back and markets can stay disconnected, but not forever. So, of course, we have to watch unemployment numbers. We've got core PCE as well coming. All these types of numbers are now going to pay more attention to as we see the stock market completely ignore some of the bonds and of course some of the discretionary stocks. Now, breaking down the US 10-year Treasury, Duality Research put out a cool little report here, basically just talking about the jump in yields.

[00:08:56]Now, uh according to the most recent data, the yield jump wasn't necessarily inflation expectations as much as it's been actually a pretty decent move in real rates. Now, that's an interesting read and I think that something we have to explore a little bit more in another video, but I thought I'd just bring it to your attention, guys. And shout out to Duality. Great work there. Now, let's have a look at a couple other things.

[00:09:20]We've now gained over 8% in the first 100 trading days of the year for the S&P. Now, this is pretty important because, as you can see here, Blue Kurtics put together some charts. And when it comes to fullear returns, yes, we're in a midterm election year. Yes, this could be different, but at least based on the stats, wow, when you do well over 100 days, and this is something that we track as well. We also track, of course, our favorite January stat. the January stat and the current stat are making sense for generally speaking the markets to potentially be bullish by the end of the year. I'm in the camp of you know IPOs IPOs IPOs and earnings earnings earnings. I think it's probably better to to watch that space but currently structure is still kind of favored towards the buy the dippers than it is towards the sell the rippers and that just kind of is what the data is telling us. Now, Blue Kurdic also says that the rest of the year tends to on average structure like this. And I tell you what, that would be an incredibly low volatility year for a midterm election. I find that a little bit difficult to see, but who knows? Now, the buffins are upgrading across the board. This is leading into, of course, everybody getting hyped, these new targets, and also a huge amount of leverage. So, as we know, when everybody feels good, leverage tends to come in.

[00:10:34]And do remember it's at record levels and we've seen record participation when it comes to people buying into semiconductors. Just a couple of stories that I think are worrying here in May because this is again hyperbolic here in May is that we've seen people in South Korea reportedly taking their whole of life insurance rates whole of life insuranceances and their pension funds and they're moving into levered positions. Now if that's true and of course it's on a wide scale which I guess it's being reported that is a bit of a sign of problems. So, as Barry said, IPOs, IPOs, IPOs, guys, when they come in, if the more hype they are, often the worse they end up performing, at least based on the history. This one here from Astra Insights over on X.

[00:11:14]Shout out to you, Astra. Good work. And Astra actually a viewer of the channel in the past. So, awesome to see him getting involved in these markets. It's uh amazing what you guys do. And that's why I say you guys are the best. There's no one better. There's no one better on YouTube in terms of finance, guys, than you guys because it's all about, you know, community. And it's all about also bringing together like-minded individuals. And you know on this channel we're talking about abundance mindset. We're talking about the temperament of a trader and investor and not necessarily feeling too much hyperbol either way. Uh fear and greed of course the most powerful emotions.

[00:11:47]And right now we're seeing a lot of greed particularly in space stocks ahead of the SpaceX IPO. And I think that's the thing ahead of the SpaceX IPO the market seems to be already kind of like getting really into it. So, could it be that the reality is going to be different? We've already demonstrated a few things from Blue Curtics charts that show that sometimes the reality isn't as good as the uh pretense. Now, let's have a look here at the VIX seasonality and you can see that we are in the lull. So, effectively during general overall average years of midterm years, the lull that is the period where it's all the calm before the storm tends to happen in the summer months and then straight out of that we tend to get volatility usually into October. And I think people like Tom Lee and others are kind of looking at this type of stuff and saying, "Well, that's what's happened in the past. That's what's happened on average. The data points towards that.

[00:12:37]Maybe it'll happen again." We're also at a market that's getting pretty hyperactive when it comes to some of these stocks, including, you know, Micron, which has just moved incredible rates. And as we can already see even with Nvidia, as soon as it seems like they're kind of hitting that potential, you know, growth expectation to the future, yeah, the Wall Street buffins, they might be upgrading it, but the stock market's saying, you know what, I'm not so sure about that. We're getting actually compression of the multiples. Midterm election years from Polycarp FX here, as you guys can see again, inflection points often come around May, June, July. So, we'll be watching that very closely. But let's get firstly into the charts. Let's have a look at the dollar here because it continues to move up as we see yields moving a little bit higher. And this is coming off that little double bottom in the middle of the range. And if that double bottom was to complete, which is a equals b, then effectively it would it would bring us back to that 100 that par that 120 kind of area. We're seeing some volatility appear into the markets. The market sold over the last 24 hours and then rallied back up again. Advanced decline line continues up, guys. So until we see a lower low and advanced decline, the markets are still bullish.

[00:13:44]And remember, it's all about patience in these markets, guys. The markets are still making a series of higher highs and higher lows. And the NASDAQ itself has been making a series of higher highs, higher lows as we come back to that allimportant 20 moving average on the 2-hour. Now, it's struggling around this zone a little bit as we see some risk off in the futures markets, but at this stage, I guess the trend is still up and it hasn't changed. Maybe it will.

[00:14:10]hasn't done it yet. US 500. Uh I don't have the opt updated levels for you today, but I do have the gamma walls in just a moment. But actually, they'd probably be fairly similar than this.

[00:14:19]But you can see here very consolidated kind of move. And I thought I'd just bring the Dow in just to show it looks pretty similar though a little bit worse because of energy and the US 2K quite strong like the NASDAQ. Again, that 2hour 20 moving average seems to be holding it up. So, it seems like right now it's been, you know, risk on in certain growth stocks and that's why you're seeing the US 2K, NASDAQ holding better than the S&P and the Dow. Let's have a look at the S&P in general. 7500 as we know all around here. Tons of all expiration gamma. So, effectively, we have huge amounts of calls here, guys.

[00:14:56]They're not small. Look at the sizes.

[00:14:58]And this is going to be still a very difficult wall to get through. And at the moment, it's trying. Uh, but it seems to be there's just so many calls there that we could actually get a very interesting phenomenon that'll be in our next video that I've written a note about and I'm going to do a bit of research for you guys to see whether it's actually possible. So stay tuned for that. S&P 500 7500 over the next 24 hours to 7520 is the call and you can see here about 74 what is it 80 or something is kind of where the put sit for the cues we continue to sit at 7:30.

[00:15:30]So 7:30 and 735 are the most callritten levels and IBIT is starting to stack up a little bit with puts as we get into the 4250 43 zone and you'll notice that when you look at all expirations they are starting to get up there. So just around this number one trade yeah it'll be interesting to see at the moment though series of lower lows lower highs on crypto there's no bid that's come in just yet a large transaction. Tesla, Tesla, Tesla, Tesla. It's climbing ahead of the IPO of SpaceX and 450 is the big level that we're watching. 450 break high. Um, could be could be quite big in terms of everyone's expectations.

[00:16:06]Nvidia, meanwhile, struggling, kind of floating on down as we see over 10% down into that correction zone. And I thought I'd bring up semiconductors as well.

[00:16:14]Interesting to note that there's all these positions it seems at 550 on semis, but of course we're at 590 right now. So there's not that that many put walls in terms of all expirations until this level. But yeah, there's a interesting amount of level there. And of course, right where we are right now, 600 is the call wall. So no surprise why it's struggling a little bit with this zone when you look at all expirations.

[00:16:38]These are all the call levels. These are the puts. And there's just seems to be a lot of puts at uh that particular zone.

[00:16:44]Let's now have a look at the markets themselves. What charts should we be watching at? Well, we reported recently that financials are doing not so well in the US, but financials on the world stage, the global financials, they're actually kind of almost getting towards new highs. So, I'm going to set some alerts here just so you guys can see.

[00:17:02]And I'm interested to note whether the world's financials are doing better because if they are, then of course that is still a little bit of growth. But you'll notice in the US it's not that way. So, very different markets there.

[00:17:14]Treasuries, meanwhile, you can see here they've come back down. They've at that multi-deade low. They've bounced off that zone, but all eyes are going to be on the 30-year, on the 10-year, on the Japanese yields as well over the next 24 hours. Move index and bonds time. Move is getting crushed, which again is symbolic of the market rallying to those all-time highs. And it just doesn't seem to be that much risk coming in on the bonds. The bonds aren't freaking out, but we're also not seeing high yield junk above where it was previously. So, I think that's kind of key.

[00:17:45]Semiconductors versus SPY. Is the number one most important market sector still beating the spy? Well, the answer is quite simply yes, though over the last 24 hours it did weaken versus the spy.

[00:17:57]So, that's the first time we've seen that since that V came in over here. And if we have a look here at semiconductors, you can see quite a big session. Gapped up, ended up actually down 1% on the session, 4.44% on the session itself. And SanDisk actually moved eight. And this is of course coming after huge upgrades. And have a look at Micron here. So of course the number one biggest transaction ever recorded rallied up huge fell off. V does seem to be in the air right now but the trend is still up. Uh so we need to remember that. Gold meanwhile falling off a I guess just in a in a nice orderly fashion in some ways. Series of lower lows and lower highs were unable to break through 4600. So the market could be going towards these two zones.

[00:18:41]I've just marked them out. It's kind of where I'm thinking the analysis sits at this point. And silver also putting pressure on that most traded area of the past. So, look, I look at gold usually at these times and gold has not been too favorable in I guess the recent, you know, maybe week and a half. Energy stocks, uh, they did fall a little bit more, but I guess if we look at UK oil, it's still holding that support as we await further news. So, you'll note here we have that support area. We still don't know exactly what's going on. It seems to be just, you know, every day there's a bit of news and I think oil is just waiting for some sort of certainty there. Solar meanwhile still rocketing up. You've got clean energy as well.

[00:19:22]Other sectors are just the thing is I just want to show you guys abundance mindset. We talked about this a little bit in our live show on Monday or Tuesday open this week and obviously we talk about it over at our market masters club as well and we look at sector rotations and sector flow and Wall Street's moves and all these things and yes okay semiconductors have easily been the best in hardware recently but there's always another opt and anyone that's been watching last year you would know that last year metals actually were just absolutely going crazy oil services and obviously oil itself that we picked up and looked at in terms of seeing those technical changes and that flow change last year and again these are still you know kind of doing that type of thing also metals and mining good session even though the market itself is falling off on precious metals so yeah there you go there's always a different thing and in the Chinese stocks uh I'm just looking at the CSI 300 here not that strong Chinese the hang in particular I'll just show you here very weak the last 24 hours falling again and the problem with this is could this be you know the head and shoulders uh and if it is does that you you know, spell something worse. Interesting to see this market struggling so much considering uh everything that's been going on.

[00:20:32]Software meanwhile down 1% still floating a series of higher highs and higher lows. And in regards to Bitcoin, we've seen the largest transaction ever recorded on IBIT anyway around this point in price, but the market is still falling off. And when you look at this, it is on that very key level of support of 74K. So kind of looking towards is it going to be able to hold this level? And if it does, you know, will it bounce and then break eventually past 785? Because this is a massive transaction. We have to continue to track it and then watch how price reacts to it. Patience, react.

[00:21:07]Don't predict, guys. Uh at the moment, what's the market actually doing? Well, the market's making a series of lower lows and lower highs. So, the bears are in control of the short time frames.

[00:21:17]Thanks so much for watching, guys. If you enjoyed today's video, then please check us out over on X. Newletter coming as well within less than 24 hours. So, it's going to be a good one. It's totally free. Pin comment down below if you want to sign up for that. You know, it's awesome to have you guys on board and I'm really looking forward to putting that one out. And of course, if you're interested in finding out anything else that we do over at FX Evolution, you can check out our uh professional trading courses and other things. So, thank you so much, guys, and we'll see you in the next one. Bye for now.