Spencer provides a sobering reality check on the disconnect between market highs and consumer struggles, correctly noting that Fed independence often delays relief for the average borrower. It is a necessary critique of the oversimplified belief that interest rate cuts are a universal cure for housing affordability.
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FED Confirmation: NO MORE RATE CUTSAdded:
Will you disclose how you devest those assets or will you just collect the check for hund00 million from someone whose whole business is betting on what the Fed will do?
>> And welcome back to Real Estate Mindset.
Today's video is going to be absolutely bonkers as we dig into what happened today with Kevin W and what he's saying he's going to do next in regard to cutting interest rates. And I hate to tell you guys, but there's going to be no rate cuts. Either way, we're going to start listening to this video. But before we do, I want to remind you guys that we are going to listen to a bunch of filthy liars. So, before we start listening to a bunch of filthy liars, let's take a look at the math because the math says they're all a bunch of liars right now. The stock market and consumer sentiment have never been this disconnected. So, everyone's celebrating, wow, all-time high in the stock market, while consumer sentiment is near historic lows. Now, we're going to listen to two back-to-back videos of people questioning the new apparent Federal Reserve chairman on whether or not he's going to listen to President Donald Trump tell him, "Hey, you better start cutting interest rates >> more than say a senator." Um, President Trump has offered his opinion about what you ought to do with interest rates. Is that right?
>> Uh, Senator, he has not made his opinion on that a secret to anybody.
>> Yeah. And uh, every president has that you're aware of.
>> Yes. They and they all tend to be in the same direction, Senator Kennedy.
>> Okay. Now, the problem is, can we agree that your credibility as Fed chairman is the most important thing you have? It's the most important thing to me. It's the most important thing to the institution and it's the most important thing to the successful conduct of policy.
>> Okay. If the market >> that's a yes, right?
>> Yeah. Yes, sir.
>> Okay.
>> Um the problem is that President Trump has said he's not going to appoint anybody who wouldn't agree to lower interest rates.
Have you agreed with the president that you're gonna lower interest rates?
>> Uh Senator, I'm glad you framed it that way. The president never asked me to predetermine, commit, fix, decide on any interest rate decision uh in any of our discussions. Uh nor would I ever agree to do so. So the president has never sat you down, looked you in the eye, and said, "Here's the deal, Scooter. I'm going to appoint you, but you got to agree to lower interest rates." That didn't happen or did happen. Uh the president never once asked me to commit to any particular interest rate decision period and nor would I ever agree to do so if he had but he never did. I was honored he nominated me like everyone else in the committee in the world. I've heard his view on interest rates. It sounded very similar to me to every other president in economic history that I've studied.
>> Now one more video of someone that's a little bit harsher with him. Andy, that President Trump never demanded you to cut interest rates in your job interview. Is that your sworn testimony?
>> Uh, that is, Senator.
>> Okay. Well, someone here is lying then.
Uh, because it's either you or President Trump because in an interview with the Wall Street Journal of December 12th, President Trump confirmed that he pressed you on your commitment to support interest rates cuts. and I quote, "During a 45minute meeting with Walsh on Wednesday at the White House, the president pressed Walsh on whether he could trust him to support interest rate cuts if he were chosen to lead the central bank." According to Pippa familiar with the meeting, Trump in the general interview confirmed that repeating uh Mr. Chairman, I'd like to enter for the record uh the Wall Street Journal article December 12th, Trump says he's leaning towards Walsh or has it to lead the Fed. So, you know, this brings up an issue of credibility at this point. Who is lying here? Is it you or the president? Because the president confirmed that he did ask you to cut interest rates.
>> Uh Senator, there's of course a third alternative. You cite a couple of reporters for a leading financial newspaper. I recall reading that story at the time.
>> Did you issue a correction?
>> I think those reporters either need better sources or better journalist standards.
>> Did you ask for a correction?
Uh there are things in the newspaper center I see all the time that don't strike my ear as correct.
>> So it is in your opinion that the president then is lying when he said he did not ask you.
>> Uh I can only repeat to you senator what I said to several of your colleagues.
>> So you did not you right now under sworn testimony are saying yes to right now that the president of the United States in that job interview did not ask you to cut interest rates. The president never asked me to commit to interest rate cuts at any particular meeting over the period of my uh tenure at the Fed. He didn't ask for it. He didn't demand it.
He didn't require it and nor would I have ever done so.
>> Mitch, there was a lot of things spoken there. Personally, I thought he did pretty well in those explanations, but you know, what do you think? How did he do? Does it matter what's going to happen next with rates when we have prices that are so out of reach from our incomes anyways? What do you make of all this, sir?
>> Everything you just saw is 100% political theater. So the Federal Reserve, when it's convenient, claims independence from the government, yet he's sitting there in front of Congress.
Congress has got no control over and apparently the president hasn't asked Wars what to do or told him what to do.
It's just political theater. It's utter nonsense.
The Federal Reserve gets some of its money, not all of it, but some of it from interest rates on the US treasuries. Uh they can be choked out.
They can be shut down. So there are mechanisms in place to allow that to happen. Is that going to happen?
Probably not. Should it? Absolutely. The Federal Reserve is nothing more than a socialist entity. It was in 1913 upon its creation. The Federal Reserve was created as a corporate social socialist policy wherein wouldn't it be great if we could prevent bank runs and yet here we are all these years later where the US dollar has been decimated to the tune of 97% of its purchasing power. The vast majority of that problem rests with the Federal Reserve. That is the reality. The Federal Reserve needs to be shut down. The doors need to be changed shut. Mr. War seems like a nice guy.
Zero problems with him whatsoever. But the Federal Reserve lost all credibility what little it had. When Greenspan gave a speech wherein he was shocked, dismayed that the banks would not self-regulate. The fact that Greenspan was in control and made that statement proves that the Federal Reserve has no business functioning in society.
They're completely useless. And to Travis's point on the interest rates, Federal Reserve can lower Fed funds.
They can absolutely do that. Should they do that? Yeah, probably. Here's the problem. It won't matter. And the reason it won't matter is because the demand for the yield will go up based on the implied risk. The yield goes up based on perception, not having anything to do with the Fed fund, saying, "Well, we're going to make money in between. We're just going to lower the Fed funds rate, which is the interbank loan rate."
That's not what mom and pop pays. You can bet you're going to get 300, 400, 500 basis point spread between the Fed funds rate. The longer these shenanigans go on, the longer the shenanigans go on, the greater the risk. The greater the risk, the higher the interest rate.
>> You know, let's talk about interest rates. And I want to play another video where he's getting asked some difficult questions about the Fed balance sheet.
And some of the people are asking actually pretty good questions. But first, Mitch, let's play a little game right now. And I want to see if you can actually guess when the market thinks the Fed is going to cut rates next. Now, just for the viewers, we're at 350 to 375, meaning three and a half to 3.75 right now. So, just remember that uh the market is saying 99.5% likelihood or the market is saying that no rate cuts at all in April. So Mitch, obviously the market's wrong and everything can change on a drop of a dime and this is never right, but do you have any ideas of when you think this a lower than 50% chance of no rate cut? Do you think it's next month, the end of the year? Any idea?
>> They can go to an options chain and look where the skew is. If the skew is to the call side, that'll tell you that there's a probability of the interest rates going up. If the skew is to the downside be it the puts then there's a probability that the interest rates will drop. My point is even on the option side in this particular case that's just the Fed funds rate US treasuries 10 years the two years the five years the point being that's not the rate on the street that's not the main street rate your Wall Street Prime if they drop Fed funds rate Wall Street Prime will still be 150 basis points 200 basis points stronger what it's going to cost you as mom and pop for borrowing will be another two three, four, 500 basis points above that. That's part of the problem. I, as a builder of multif family, would not even think about putting a shovel in the ground less than a 7% cap rate off on cash, a 7% return on cash. But if my cost of money goes to 8 and a quarter, goes to 9%, I'm 200 225 basis points upside down before I stick a shovel in the ground. I would need my head examined. Yes, I know a lot of people do that. But the problem with those people is they're not playing with their money. They're playing with somebody else's money.
>> You're right. But you are wrong. The answer was July, sir. It's July of 2027.
Look at this. So the market has pushed rate cuts and it's barely under 50% right here. So all the way, Mitch, until July of 2027, then we're under 50% right here. So it's saying even then, Mitch, 47.9% chance. It's too far out. This is completely useless. I get it. But 47.9% chance that the rates are going to stay the same. The federal funds rate is going to stay the same as it is right now all the way to July of 2027. Now, going back to what Mitch was saying, who's giving you guys a little bit of the dessert right there. Um, but I already have this up. Mitch, look at this. There's the 10-year Treasury, and that's the long run of the yield. This is going to affect Main Street a lot more, especially when it comes to residential mortgages that are advertised over 30 years. in 15 years, some of them over 20 years. But right now, the 10-year Treasury today is up almost five basis points, sitting at 4.3%.
Now, as of today, conventional mortgage rates, which is on the upper left for a 30-year fixed rate, is still above 6%.
6.33%. That's about average, I guess, historically. So, they're not like record high like, oh my gosh, it's so high. It's the prices, guys. It's the prices that is making it so unaffordable. and FHA is sitting at 5.93% so slightly under 6% on a 30-year FHA fixed. Now remember if you're shopping your interest rates and you have really good credit usually for myself anyways I can find lenders that offer about 50 basis points or a half% lower than what you guys see on your screen. So it's very important to shop your interest rates. Now that we've taken a look at how useless CI Fed rate watch is, let's listen to this next video talk about the Fed balance sheet.
Some interesting conversation.
>> Question is about the balance sheet of the Fed. What is your view about the size of the balance sheet currently?
>> Uh thank you Senator. uh as we talked about in your office uh the Fed balance sheet has played a particularly I think unhelpful role in uh helping the Fed achieve its dual mandate. Um the senator had just mentioned what she described as the uh increase for financial assets relative to real assets. Well, part of that is the Federal Reserve. The Fed is not blameless in that as it's grown, the Fed's balance sheet, grown, it's uh impremature on the economy. Uh those with financial assets have benefited from it. The reason why I prefer monetary policy to use interest rates as the dominant force is interest rates affect a far broader cross-section of the economy. Interest rates get in the cracks. If we were to cut rates, then broader number of people will benefit from it versus quantitative easing, which tends to move through financial assets first. Half of our fellow Americans don't own any financial assets. So, they're wondering what's in it for them. Broadly speaking, uh, senator on the balance sheet, u, I was involved in 2008 and 9 in response to the global financial crisis that Senator Warren referenced and we used extraordinary measures and created a bigger balance sheet. But we agreed to do that only in the times of emergencies, only when interest rates were pinned to zero. The big balance sheet has become an ordinary recurring force. I think has been quite unhelpful and is part of the reason why the Fed is in the business of politics. Um slowly and deliberatively, uh I believe we need a smaller central bank balance sheet. It took us 18 years to create this big balance sheet that's done quite a bit of harm. It strikes me to the Fed's credibility, uh, working with the Treasury Secretary, we're going to have to find a way in which we can take the balance sheet and make it smaller because a large balance sheet where the Fed owns more uh, outstanding debt than many parts of the financial markets. That's fiscal policy in disguise, Fed needs to get out of the fiscal business, focus on the monetary business so the Fed can deliver on the remitt you gave us.
Thanks for that response because some of us don't appreciate the connection between the size of the Fed's balance sheet and interest rates.
>> Mitch, can you articulate to America what was important about what we just heard?
>> Absolutely nothing. What you just heard wasn't important. I understand where Mr. Worsh is going. So, let's go there for a second. I looked at this about 30 days ago and at that time the Fed balance sheet was 6.7 trillion. Okay. He just made a statement. We create a bigger balance sheet in times of stress. Given where we are with electoral fraud, central appraisal district and school district bond fraud, and financial embezzlement in the bonds, what sort of stress do you think is coming down the pipe? You think this is going to be a walk in the park?
I think it's going to make 2008 magnified by 80 times.
So the bigger the Fed balance sheet gets, it's a ramification of the stress in the market, which by the way, who created it? Federal Reserve. When you print money via the US Treasury, printing money is inflation. Printing money not backed by assets is fraud. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is what these politicians do not understand or they don't care because they're being backstopped as it was in 1913.
The Fed's creation. Wouldn't it be great if we can stop bank runs? That's purely a selfish socialist maneuver. But it was done such that the politicians didn't care andor they were paid to allow that to happen.
They've been receiving money non-stop.
both have got to stop and both like I said the Federal Reserve should be shut down.
>> All right, let's see how accurate you were on the Fed balance sheet and Mitch was accurate. Okay, it is 6.7 trillion and you know it's interesting because I only see this going up since what about 2003. So we're going back to 2003. It's kind of just going up the whole time. I guess there's a period right here. Yeah, I guess it went down a little bit here, but I don't know, man. I mean, that's a lot of money. Imagine what society could do with $6.7 trillion. Imagine how great our communities and culture would be if there wasn't fraud, greed, and corruption. Imagine that just for a second. Now, speaking of balance sheets, apparently the Fed's balance sheet isn't the only concern. Fed has been plagued by deeply disturbing ethics scandals in recent years involving at least six Fed officials. So, it's critical that the next chair have no financial conflicts.
None. Uh you have more than hund00 million in investments that you have refused to disclose to ethics officials and to the public. So, let me ask, do the Juggernaut Fund or the THSDFS LLC invest in any companies affiliated with President Trump or his family? Companies that have facilitated money laundering, Chinese controlled companies, or financing vehicles established by Jeffrey Epste.
>> Uh, Senator Warren, thank you. So, let me first share a point of agreement with you. Um the Fed has two tools. One is its monetary policy and the second is its credibility and the scandals that you talked about. The ethics problems you talked about but I core of credibility that has hurt.
>> Would you answer my question please? I ask you have a hundred million dollars in undisclosed assets and what I'm asking is are any of those with uh this outfit that invests in um uh companies affiliated with President Trump or his family companies that have facilitated money laundering Chinese control companies or financing vehicles set up by Jeffrey Epstein. It's a yes or no question. Uh, Senator, I have worked tirelessly with the ethics officials at the office of government and you have not come to an ethics agreement and have agreed, Senator, to sell all of my financial assets, including refusing to tell us >> if you have investments, for example, in vehicles set up uh to advance Jeffrey Epstein. Is that what you're telling us?
You just won't tell us. Uh, Senator, what I'm telling you is that those assets that you represent at Juggernaut will be sold if I'm confirmed before I take office and sign the oath of office.
>> Let me follow up on that. Will you at least disclose how you plan to disclose and devest these secret assets? I'm sure you understand that the public might question your motives if for example billionaire Stanley Ducken Miller uh who you honored in your opening statement and who makes a living guessing what the Fed will do next cuts you a massive check for $und00 million as you take the oath of office to become the new Federal Reserve chair. Uh, Senator, as you know, it sounds like your fight not be might not be with me, but the office of government ethics. I have come to full agreement with them and have agreed to divest all of those assets. I'm asking you especially those that question before I take the oath of office >> and that is will you disclose how you devest those assets or will you just collect the check for hund00 million from someone whose whole business is betting on what the Fed will do? As I said to the ethics officials at the Federal Reserve and the Office of Government Ethics, they take I'll take that as it always will.
>> So, in case you didn't know, that was good old-fashioned Kabuki theater going on. In other words, it doesn't matter anything uh about what they're saying right now. So, Mitch, by all means, if you'd like to talk about the Kabuki theater that we were just watching, feel free to. Or if you'd like to spend your time perhaps explaining the triad of systemic moral hazard, you could do that as well. I'll leave it up to you. I think the two issues are actually hooked at the hip. So, what you're looking at here is a screenshot that we put together a couple days ago, but it's very important because how would you feel if you went and you voted and the person that you were voting for actually won, but somebody else ended up in the position of Senate, Congress, your local political issues, including your school district bonds? What if the people or the person aren't supposed to be in that position because they really didn't win? What if the mathematical formula that was built into the software that was used flipped votes starting off with a 16% factor, which is reasonable, but as time progressed during the day, it climbed to a 65% switch, meaning the vote switched from one party to another party, from one person to another person. What if that software not only did that but is being used on multiple levels in multiple jurisdictions simultaneously six jurisdictions in particular where this occurred lock step parallel motion well it ends up in electoral subversion your vote may not have counted and it ends up in a charge of treason. So the mechanism is hidden vote distortion logic and its impact is that it installs nonconsensual actors, people you didn't vote for via the software manipulation.
That's node one. Node two, the asset extraction of taxes. I've mentioned this. This is equity stripping. The mechanism central appraisal districts.
The impact illegally inflating property values using fraudulent software to meet a predetermined value budget from the school districts.
That's note two. Note three, financial embezzlement, the bonds from the school districts, insolvent school district bonds, insolvent bond guarantee programs, the impact across the United States, give or take, 5.1 trillion in fraudulent outstanding school district bonds over and above the about to be 40 trillion of US national debt.
So the core thesis between all three of these is that the victims all of society is this is a societal problem. This is not a political issue.
This is a math issue and ignoring the law. It's a multi- trillion dollar economic extraction scheme enabled by algorithmic manipulation and shielded allegedly by the law. It's not true, but that's what they're claiming. Well, you can't touch us because we have sovereign immunity or you can't touch us because we're going to ignore ultravirus.
That's why my case is at the Supreme Court of Texas as we speak. So, what we're saying here is that with these three issues, just this one slide, there's your reason why being apathetic and not getting involved is no longer going to work.
What we really have now is a system that we have proven and the second amendment to the criminal complaints on its way.
I'm working on it pretty well round the clock. But what we really have is a system of criminals versus the citizens.
It's got nothing to do with politics.
It's criminals who are equity stripping your money and hiding behind the shield of the law. But the law doesn't say that. The law doesn't say you get to ignore ultravirus. That's why ultravirus exists.
The point being at mom and pop you have got to go and get involved at your municipal level, your school district level with regard to the bonds. These things are crucial. It's no longer an option. And over and above that, if you can get your hands on what's called the cast vote records, best you get that and download it to your computer. That's the proof that we're finding now all over the place across the United States with regard to the electoral subversion.
Fraud was committed. I want to point one other thing out. On Wikipedia, it said that the voter fraud had been debunked.
There's no such term in law. Voter fraud was never debunked. It was never allowed to proceed forward and be adjudicated in court. We now have the mass and the people. Edward Solomon, Dr. Andrew Pquette, sworn testimony that the voter fraud is real. And I want to point one other thing out. It's not just the idea that it could happen in a small community.
Meris County is not small. It's biggest community in Texas. Well, if it can happen there, it can pretty well happen everywhere. Meaning the voter machines themselves must be destroyed and never used again because you can't trust the software that is within them. The voter fraud, the voter manipulation, the lockstep parallel motion, the hidden vote logic.
>> Yeah, >> it's all there. It's all happened.
Doesn't mean it's happened in every community. But here's the bigger point.
The government cannot prove that it didn't occur. whereas the evidence shows it did occur. So anybody who stands in the way of this, I would refer you to chapter 42 US code 1986 knowledge of a crime and power to prevent because when you stand in the way of adjudicating the law and you know that crimes have been committed, you're guilty under federal law. This is no joke. The Second Amendment to the criminal complaint is also going to every attorney general in the United States. It is also going to every Secretary of State in the United States in addition to a handful of people where the evidence lands right on their doorstep. I'm not a judge. I'm not a prosecutor. But the people that are now behind this are serious mathematicians.
>> Yes, >> the evidence is the evidence. We're going to see where all this goes. I think we know where it's going. Uh and hopefully it's going to involve some people going to jail. And speaking of people that are not standing in the way, Mitch, yesterday I told the viewers that I was barely hanging on as far as being cheerful and a positive mindset and just like happy and stuff like that because of all of the fighting I'm doing in various counties. I mean, you guys, you hear Mitch, I've been working with Mitch for a year and a half. Like every single day, this man has taught me how to properly fight corruption, but it's still new for me. So, he's teaching me like all these crazy effective ways to take back my government, but I'm still an emotional broken mess. So, it's really hard. So, I just wanted to say thank you. There was a handful of people that did reach out. They donated a little bit of money, but the messages, guys, the messages that you guys gave me. Holy smokes. Thank you so much. I definitely feel the love. I definitely feel appreciated. And I want you to know this. So are you. You are also loved.
You are also appreciated. and your voice matters way more than you realize. So, please guys, follow along, support our efforts, and learn. All right, that's really what we want you guys to do. We want you to learn, and we want you to become citizen advocates, and help us take back the government and give it to its people. Now, having said that, guys, I hope you guys have a great day. I'm going to try to get out a video tomorrow and the next day. I got a lot to do tomorrow as far as what's going on in Conro. I have a lot to do on Thursday as well. Thursday is going to be one of the last rallies in Conro. This is my fifth straight month and my eighth straight rally. So, it's it's taken a toll, but I promise you this, we are making a positive change and we are showing people that their voices do matter. And if you've been supporting us in that effort, part of the reason why we're making this success is because of you.
So, I want you to know that. Having said that, if you guys are out there just trying to figure out where the corruption is and how to fight the corruption, you guys already know. We wish you luck and we hope you
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