This is Amazing

Added: 2026-06-04

[00:00:00]Welcome back to my 10 favorite people.

[00:00:02]Hope you're doing well. I'm incredibly excited for today's video because Bitcoin continues to follow the base case we outlined in December of last year. We got our low in February. We got our high in May. And now the expectation is a pretty choppy and boring summer as we prepare for our bottom in Q4. Now, to be honest, the outcome I want to see happen is the normal bare market scenario where we get a chance to load up on Bitcoin in the low 40,000s or high 30,000s. But because this seems to be the most common opinion, I don't believe we're going to get that opportunity.

[00:00:31]Especially because Bitcoin is already going to be so close to that 200E moving average and we had that 8-month consolidation in 2024, which I expect to act as very strong support. And that's why the shallow bare market scenario has been my base case. It would be really fun if the permables were right and Bitcoin made new all-time highs in 2026, which I'm calling the short bare market scenario. But I believe that is the least likely of these three possible outcomes. And this of course brings up everybody's favorite sell in May and go away meme. As I'm sure a lot of you are aware, if you've spent any time in this market, Bitcoin tends to be pretty boring and choppy during the summer. You have some slightly green months, you have some slightly red months, but you pretty much end the summer very close to where you started it. And we've been seeing this over the past few years or so. So, it would make sense for the same thing to happen this time around as we build a base, accumulate, and prepare for a future bull market once time capitulation plays out. For now, Bitcoin remains in the cheap region, and I'm hoping we get an opportunity to buy in the very cheap region later this year.

[00:01:36]Keep in mind, the very cheap region does keep rising alongside that 200E moving average. So even in the shallow bare market scenario, we may still get a chance to buy below the 200 week later in 2026. But if we don't get that opportunity and the permables end up being right and Bitcoin heads right back to new all-time highs this year, I'll happily ride that bull market with my existing exposure. And in terms of what I'm doing with my portfolio, I am putting my money where my mouth is and increasing my dry powder with the expectation that we will be heading lower over the course of the summer. And I expect that to impact altcoins a lot worse than it impacts Bitcoin. So I sold my Salana position and trimmed my Ethereum exposure because I would expect them to do a lot worse than Bitcoin over the next few months if May was in fact our local top and we enter a choppy summer. And I really want to have that extra dry powder for better buying opportunities later this year if they are granted to us. And if you would like to be notified of my portfolio changes as soon as I make them, you can subscribe to the free weekly report which comes out every Monday. And if you would like access to my entire portfolio, including non-crypto assets, as well as the exact system I use to manage my portfolio, you can check out the market enjoyers program and community in the video description. And that brings us back to Bitcoin. It's hard to take a look at this chart and say that it screams strength and vitality. We had a very clean range breakout, which is exactly what we wanted to see. But with it closing back below 76K here, it is a clear sign of weakness and a confirmed false breakout if the weekly candle ends up closing below 76K tomorrow. And with that false breakout, we have market sentiment back in fear and we have the DGEN's getting liquidated as usual. So, we will see what happens. But as of right now, this price action greatly increases the likelihood of our choppy summer base case. And it isn't just the price action. The spot Bitcoin ETFs are telling the same story. They just logged a record 10day outflow streak totaling nearly $3 billion. As you can see here, we've had quite a few large days of ETF outflows here recently, over the past week and a half or so. As for the Bitcoin treasuries, we know that Strategy has been buying quite a bit of Bitcoin over the past two months or so.

[00:03:48]But this may be slowing down here because they are starting to prioritize buying back their debt, which is great for Strategy in the long term, but does mean that that strategy buy pressure is going to be reduced over the next few months or so. Again, aligning with our choppy and boring summer price action that continues to be the base case. And now I do believe STRC investors will start to get a bit nervous now that the cash reserve only covers six months of dividends instead of the 18 months that strategy used to have and was giving STRC investors a lot of peace of mind.

[00:04:21]And that came as a result of using that cash reserve to pay back the 2029 debt.

[00:04:26]And I don't believe that was a good idea. I think instead of buying so much Bitcoin in a bare market, strategy could have used the STRC issuance to pay back the debt instead of buying Bitcoin and leaving that 18 months of USD reserve on the balance sheet because that would make the STRC investors a lot more comfortable. But now the likelihood of Strategy selling some Bitcoin later this year and greatly spooking the market has gone up significantly. Now, I don't think this is going to make strategy or STRC go under, but the second half of this year is likely going to be a bit bumpier than it needed to be because of that cash reserve shrinking so much so quickly when investors were really comfortable with that 18-month cushion to comfortably make it through a bare market. And it isn't just me saying this. Michael Sailor said it himself. He said it was not unlikely for Strategy to sell Bitcoin in 2026. And for those of you keeping score at home, not unlikely is just a very clever way of saying likely with that double negative there.

[00:05:25]And even though I do believe the market will be able to handle it the same way investors were frontr running strategies Bitcoin buys and selling them Bitcoin at a higher price, I believe the same exact thing is going to happen if the market knows Sailor is going to have to sell Bitcoin lower and is going to frontr run those sales by keeping an eye on that balance sheet and knowing exactly when Sailor is going to have to sell Bitcoin.

[00:05:47]So this is going to make the second half of the year quite interesting. Now, I don't believe strategy is going to go under or anything because I believe the market can absorb the Bitcoin selling just fine. I do just believe it's going to make the second half of the year a lot more volatile than it otherwise would have been. As for MSTR, a pretty ugly false breakout at the range high.

[00:06:05]And if we're expecting Bitcoin to have a choppy summer of consolidation, we'd expect the exact same thing for strategy. And speaking of consolidation over the summer, that's exactly what the GLI is calling for as well. It was right about the Bitcoin bottom. It was right about the Bitcoin local top. And it's now saying that this is going to be a summer of mostly sideways chop and consolidation. But to really get optimistic about Bitcoin over the next few months and a major bottom later this year, we really want to see the GLI break out and start to put in new highs because Bitcoin doesn't do that well when liquidity is flat. It really needs liquidity to be rising for it to have the incredible rallies that bring us to Bitcoin in the first place. And this relationship between Bitcoin and the GLI is not new. It makes sense that a fixed supply monetary debasement hedge would be heavily driven by liquidity. When liquidity is decreasing like 2022, 2018, and 2014, Bitcoin had bare markets. And when liquidity was expanding aggressively, like 2017, 2020 to early 2021, and a lot of 2023 through 2024, Bitcoin does very well. And that's why this is probably the number one thing I'm keeping an eye on here in 2026 if we do get liquidity expansion. I will become even more bullish on Bitcoin this year and maybe expect a higher low for our bottom in Q4. But if it starts to just go sideways or start to slightly head lower, we're probably going to expect that shallow bare market scenario where Bitcoin double bottoms later this year. And the GLI's next major trend will come down to what the US dollar index decides to do. The US dollar is the reserve currency, so it has a huge impact on liquidity globally. I wish I could predict if it was going to break up or break down, but the great thing about markets is we don't have to always predict exactly what's going to happen.

[00:07:56]We can just be prepared to react once we see a outcome actually begin to play out. And you can make pretty solid arguments for both sides here. The dollar bulls will tell you that the US dollar is sitting at support and it has held support on this trend line over and over again over the past 18 years. But the bears will tell you that in the previous midterm years, the dollar had already begun rallying by this point.

[00:08:19]And the fact that it's just hanging on to support for dear life means it's going to break down. And that's the side I lean towards. But I don't want to jump to any conclusions until the market actually tells us what the right answer is. It's going to be hard for the US dollar to go up significantly when the Fed is increasing the size of their balance sheet by over $40 billion a month, which is the exact opposite of 2022, 2018, and 2014. And now I know a lot of people believe that Kevin Wars, the new Fed chair, is going to change this based on his comments in the past, but we've seen examples over and over again of people saying one thing when they aren't in the seat, but then once they are in the seat, they completely change their tune because they realize how catastrophic it's going to be to make those types of big changes after the institution has done things one way for a very, very long time. Not to mention, he has to convince the rest of the board to go alongside him in making that change. Is it possible? It definitely is. But is it as likely as most people think? Probably not. We also have the market pricing in zero rate cuts and even one rate hike next year.

[00:09:25]And although that seems terrifying, that's exactly what happened in the runup into the dotcom bubble. Now, I'm not saying this is the exact same, but do we really believe that an economy running this hot with inflation this high is going to be heavily impacted by the Fed funds rate changing by 25 basis points? To pop the dot bubble back in 2000, the Fed had to raise rates quite a bit and even take them higher than where they peaked in 1995. And again, I'm not saying this is the exact same situation, but what I am saying is 125 basis point rate hike is not the end of the world like many of the YouTube doomers will have you believe. And it's probably going to take a lot more than that to stop the economy from running as hot as it is. I completely understand the concerns around rising inflation. We've seen a huge spike in the producer price index recently. And we also saw a pretty big spike back in 2024, except that did not carry over into core CPI. Will it carry over this time around? We'll have to keep an eye on the data and see. But people calling for inflation to go to 5 6 7%. There's just nothing in the data showing that right now. And what we see in producer prices do not carry over perfectly to consumer prices. So I'd be very careful making that assumption. We are seeing a rise in core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. But 3% is not 5, 6, 7% like many people are calling for, especially because we are seeing a bit of a decrease in energy prices. Like I've been saying for the past few months, I'm not going to try and predict where energy prices go.

[00:10:56]That's a absolutely incredible way to lose all your money and get wrecked, but it is nice to see energy prices coming down a bit here. And I truly can't believe how many people only focus on inflation and completely ignore what's happening with growth. High inflation with low growth is known as stagflation.

[00:11:14]It's terrible for the economy and it's terrible for markets. But high inflation with high growth is usually referred to as reflation and it's a much better regime than stagflation. And as of right now, we have the Atlanta Fed GDP now estimate coming in at above 4% real GDP, which is pretty insane, especially compared to where consensus is. So, this is an economy that continues to accelerate with the unemployment rate remaining quite low at 4.3%, continuing jobless claims remaining low, initial jobs claims remaining low. And even though we're not seeing a huge amount of job creation, we're nowhere near where you'd expect us to be if we were in a recession. no matter what all the doomers continue to tell you. And I think that growth is the reason why the S&P 500 has skyrocketed off its bottom the way that it has. Now, is it a bit overheated here in the very expensive region? Yes. Usually, when the very expensive region gets hit, the S&P 500 enters a consolidation and correction period. But that doesn't change the fact that people have been bearish this entire move and have just watched the market go higher and higher. But instead of wondering what perhaps they could have gotten wrong, they instead just double down and talk about the major crash that they called for in early 2026, they called for throughout 2025, they called for it throughout 2024, and they called for it throughout 2023. And they just keep moving that target. Will they be right eventually? Of course.

[00:12:40]Everything has a crash at some point.

[00:12:42]Nothing can go up in a straight line forever. But by the time they actually get the crash they've been talking about for who knows how many years, it's going to end up being a higher low than where they were bearish over the past four years or so. And even though I have a bunch of S&P 500 exposure, this rally would be a lot more fun if Bitcoin decided to join the party. Even the software ETF, which Bitcoin has been very correlated with over the past few years, is beginning to rally quite aggressively here. Yet, Bitcoin is just chopping sideways. So maybe this could be the dark horse of why Bitcoin decides to break higher if we see this stock market euphoria continue. But as of right now, Bitcoin is not giving us any reason to believe that to be the case.

[00:13:24]As for gold, it continues to consolidate in the fair value region, just cooling off after the incredible run it's been in from 2023 to the end of 2025. And I do still believe its macro bull market will continue once this cool off and consolidation period is over. As for Ethereum, it's trying to hold on to that major pivot level for dear life after a pretty ugly rejection at the 200W week moving average. It continues to see a ton of ETF outflows. Tom Lee's Bitmine is now down $7.35 billion in unrealized losses. But those aren't even my biggest concerns. My biggest concern is the Ethereum Bitcoin chart, which just closed below its range mid. When you bottom at a range low and head back to a range high to maintain bullish structure, you have to hold the range mid. If you lose the range mid, there's a very high likelihood you're headed back to the range low. And that's why I would rather be in Bitcoin if Ethereum is just going to underperform the safer asset. And I really do hope I'm wrong and I'm hope Ethereum turns it around and shows us insane strength. If it does, maybe I'll get involved once again. But as of right now, there's just no signs of life whatsoever against Bitcoin. And in a bare market, I'd rather prioritize the safer asset, especially because Ethereum is in its cheap region, just like Bitcoin is. So again, I would rather be in the safer asset because aside from the Bitine pump we had in early 2025, Ethereum has done nothing but underperform over the past 5 years. Could that change? And I'll be very happy if me reducing my exposure allows all of you to ride Ethereum to 10K. That's a sacrifice I'm very happy to make. But based on everything I'm seeing, I would rather be in Bitcoin and I'll happily get involved once again if the market actually shows me something or gives me a reason to. As for the rest of the altcoin market, really not much going on with the altcoin season index still in the low30s. The Russell 2000 is doing exactly what we hoped it would do, but the altcoins just refused to join the party, which is not a great sign.

[00:15:30]And that's exactly why I'm exiting the small Salana position I have left over from my early 2023 accumulation. I'm glad I took some profits throughout the bull market. And I hope everybody holding Salana gets to ride it to $1,000 without me because the market makers were able to trick me out of my 3% allocation. But that is not what I believe to be the most likely outcome here. Will Salana turn it around at some point? I hope so, but I really have to see some signs of strength and life coming from this asset before deciding to hold it over Bitcoin for the remainder of this bare market. As for the Salana spot ETFs, they have been pretty quiet. Not much in terms of inflows or outflows here really. But just like Ethereum, the most concerning chart to me is the Salana Bitcoin chart.

[00:16:12]It lost its major pivot level and then got rejected there. Could it break above it and go back and make new highs against Bitcoin? I really hope it does, but so far all we have here is lower highs just like Ethereum did. And again, I really need the riskier asset to be greatly outperforming the safer one to justify me holding it for the remainder of the bull market if it starts getting back above these major levels and risk is greatly reduced. Maybe I'll get involved once again. But as of right now, everything that Salana has shown us on its Bitcoin pair is that it is a worse asset to hold than Bitcoin in terms of its risk adjusted return potential. And that's why even though Salana is in the cheap region, just like Ethereum is, I'd rather hold the safer asset in the cheap region during a bare market. And we'll see how these recover on the other side and see what the winning plays will be for the next bull market. So, we'll see what happens.

[00:17:07]Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Salana continue to be crushed by the NASDAQ and S&P 500, even though the NASDAQ and S&P 500 are much safer assets. That's why I think it's important to be diversified across asset classes. But this is definitely quite concerning in terms of how these assets have performed compared to their much safer counterparts. Now, that isn't a surprise in a bare market. We would expect crypto to underperform, but we would really want to see some more life coming out of Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Salana given how much euphoria we're seeing in the stock market right now.

[00:17:41]But as we look forward, the federal government is still running huge deficits. That trend seems to be worsening year after year. Exponential debt growth results in exponential money supply growth as that debt has to get monetized. And that debasement of the fiat currency acts as a strong tailwind for valuable risk assets like the S&P 500 and fixed supply risk assets like Bitcoin. But as always, let me know what you expect. Thank you so much for the support on the recent videos. Thank you so much for watching and I'll talk to you