Bitcoin Analysis: The Pattern Nobody's Talking About

Added: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]Throughout this week, we've been speaking about the importance of holding the 79,250 number very specifically for Bitcoin of which continues to do so. And now there is one of those perhaps magical moves on the backends loading for Bitcoin. And I think it's coming sooner rather than later. I'm going to go out and I'm going to go down a limb here and just say something a little bit crazy. I think Bitcoin's going to do something uh ridiculous very soon. And when I say ridiculous, I will show you the data. You can make the decision for yourself. And we'll talk about triggers and validations and all that good stuff.

[00:00:25]And basically I'm looking for uh you know probably the biggest move that we've seen on Bitcoin in I don't know in many months at least. So here's the thing and here is a setup. Bitcoin on the daily time frame is compressing right alongside that white moving average which is a 200 simple average which is very very very very important because we've seen this many times in the past when Bitcoin puts in these prolonged consolidations around that major moving average and then confirms above it. We've seen some of the most amazing rallies really in Bitcoin. So, uh, I'm going to give you some I I mean, I don't want to call it hoping because it, you know, it is legitimate right now, but we have a couple things going on as of this moment. Daily Bitcoin is compressing against that 200 simple. We can see that right here again, white moving average. I'll circle it as you can see. Now, I'll show you the last few times. In fact, I'll go over the last 10 years of data that we have for this particular setup. And uh, and I think, you know, the results are just going to speak for themselves. So the last time we saw this was Bitcoin accumulating uh you know a nice little consolidation below that 200 simple moving average right here and more importantly the yellow 21 EMA crossed the upside of the green 55 EMA that silver cross was initiated and as soon as Bitcoin broke above that 200 simple we saw a over 26 and a half% move to the upside over the next 31 days. Obviously, that did go on for, you know, much more, but uh I'm just going to, you know, measure out the next month basically so that we can kind of forecast into mid, maybe even late June. And then, of course, if we go over to the one previous to that, same thing over here, coming off of the back of the 2024 mega consolidation, Bitcoin accumulates a lot of price action right around the 200 simple right here. Once it actually breaks above alongside again that yellow 21 EMA cross above that above the green 55 EMA uh we saw in the next 30 days uh just under a 46% move actually in fact it was a little bit more than that but you get the idea. Big move coming relatively soon. Uh same thing over here the cross between the yellow 21 and the green 55 EMA was not had before reclaiming the 200 simple. So this one did obviously fail and that one even even then over the next 16 days from reclaiming the 200 simple did put in a nearly 17% move. Of course we go back a little bit further than that. We have to go to the 2023 summer consolidation or I mean it was mostly summer I guess. Um in which case again yellow 21 EMA cross above the green 55 EMA. Bitcoin is accumulating below the 200 simple once it reclaims it over here. Boom. Next 30 days over a 33% move. And of course, this one, you know, it just went on for significantly more, but again, I'm just measuring out the next month for right now. Um, before that, what do we have? This one over here was just a straight [ __ ] moonshot, so don't need to talk about that one. We do have this one over here, actually, from 2021. Again, Bitcoin, uh, you know, humiding below that 2007 average right here for a couple weeks.

[00:03:04]And we got that same cross between the yellow 21 and the green 55 EMA. And over the next 19 days, Bitcoin headed up to new all-time highs. Uh, you know, almost a 53% move. I mean went on for a little bit more than that but again you know we're looking at about a month uh more or less before that what do we have we have of course the 2020 rona dump similar thing over here this one didn't accumulate as much below the chrona symbol so maybe I'm kind of pulling straws but similar thing anyways you know over the next month up almost 32%.

[00:03:31]Not bad. Same thing over here. Again, this one did ultimately fail. You know, that was a rona dump. You might call it a black swan, blah blah blah blah. But even then, 17, sorry, uh over 18% move over the next 17 days. Um and then of course, we got a couple more and then and and and and then I'll bring it back around. But we do have this one from of course uh 2018. Similar thing over here.

[00:03:53]This one ultimately failed again because the yellow 21 EMA was below the green 55 EMA. does highly highly raise the probability of this setup failing. But still, even then, I mean, over the next 26 days, 51 and a half% move to the upside. Crazy [ __ ] [ __ ] right?

[00:04:07]Anyways, and then uh the last one or the last two that we'll go over are right here coming off the back of the 2015 cycle. This was obviously just a crazy move. I mean, I'm not expecting something like that. I mean, look, I'm not complaining if we get something like this, but I don't think it's going to I don't think this is the most like thing to happen. Uh this was a 100% move over about 22 days from reclaiming the 200 simple. And then of course, same thing over here. Um, this one putting in about a 21 and a half% move over the course of 14 days. That brings us all the way back to June of 2015. So, more than 10 years of price action history here. And basically, the gist is when Bitcoin reclaims the 200 average after consulting below it for, you know, multiple weeks, especially alongside the 21 EMA already crossing the upside of the green 55 EMA, which we do have in this setup over here. Generally, the next 30 days is really [ __ ] good. So in this case I would say similar to yesterday and really this past week the importance of the downside pivot at 79250 we have an equal but opposite pivot on the upside which is effectively 82450. So if Bitcoin can close the daily above there I would be looking for this thing to put in one of those just magical crazy Bitcoin moves. I know that sounds a little bit ridiculous but look I'm just going off of the data here and there are other things that do support this as well. If we go over here, we can see daily time frame on Bitcoin is about to put in assuming that it closes here or higher by end of day. Another drive of hidden bullish divergence on characterist RSI. This is a phantom drive right here. But these have been quite powerful nonetheless and especially on another higher low and more importantly just holding that yellow 21 EMA which is also our downside pivot at 79250. I want to be really [ __ ] clear in stating this until Bitcoin closed above the upside pivot. I wouldn't be expecting all that much. If it is going to do it, I think it does it, you know, within the next few days realistically like latest latest latest latest would be next week. And then of course, if Bitcoin does come back down below 79250, you will hear me as I've been sitting for the past few weeks here or the past week and a half now, yeah, I'm going to turn bearish for the medium and and short term looking for Bitcoin to come down somewhere around 70,000 bucks. But for right now, you know, it does really have one of those uh chances to do a magical Bitcoin move, especially with volatility looking like this. I mean, this is some of the lowest volatility that we've seen in I mean, really in the last like five, six months. And coming off these lows, you know, that setup is certainly available.

[00:06:22]Now, let me get back to my notes over here because I'm getting a little bit ahead ofelves. Uh, as I realize, yeah, okay, we got that. We got that. We got that. Cool. Um, that's pretty much Bitcoin setup. Let me actually bring up some central I'm curious where the liquidation levels are on central command over here. Again, if you haven't already checked it out, uh, the central command tutorial is 100% free. Also, the service itself is 100% free and you can literally set up AI agents to trade on your own behalf. You don't even know how to code or you don't need to know how to code. You just have to know what your strategy is, which is probably might be harder than learning how to code. I don't know. I don't know how to code myself, so maybe I can't say that. But yeah, liquidation levels to the upside are about where you'd expect them to be, 82 800, let's say. So, technically speaking, you know, that's actually a little bit above where the 200 simple is as of right now. and also my upside pivot. But you know, these things are going to likely work hand in hand. To the downside, long widation levels are a little bit uh more interesting here. We got the 30-day and the 7-day all coming in around about 78,500 to 78,000 bucks.

[00:07:21]And then we got the daily and the 3-day time frame coming in pretty much at the exact same level right here at 80,500.

[00:07:28]So intraday, not really looking for all that much, but we do have a very clear and obvious defined range, which makes things super super easy to set up. So if you do want to be bullish, you know, there is an obvious trigger. if you do want to be bearish as an obvious trigger as well. Um, and uh, and and if we do look at this, you know, just from like a pattern perspective, which, you know, I'm not the biggest pattern guy of all time, but it is, you know, it is relevant to say here, we do have what would be considered your traditional Okay, let me go to a new chart that's like way too [ __ ] convoluted. We do have what you would traditionally uh, call a, you know, a falling channel or a bull flag, whatever the [ __ ] you want to call it. you know, you got these two sort of symmetrical um boundaries right here. And as long as again, Bitcoin is holding that low, I mean, that does have a higher probability to break out to the upside. And this also does have an implied move to be made as well. If you've been through the TA 101 program, you already know this. And that is going to be somewhere around about 85,000 bucks. Um, and that would just be the first leg that obviously brings Bitcoin above the 200 simple, which we're looking at over here. So, that has bigger implications for the more long-term. And I mean, [ __ ] man. I've been saying for a while, I don't think Bitcoin is going to do one of those crazy like uh just [ __ ] blastoff moves to 100,000 bucks. But, um, you know, based off of the history, I mean, [ __ ] we've seen like the minimum the minimum move from this sort of setup has been what just going to proves it really quickly. There's there's 17% right there. Like so low, right? You know, so bad. Uh, 18% right here. So, that seems a little bit on the lower end as well.

[00:08:51]And 21 and a half% right there. So, let's just say 17%. you know, just the worst one that we've seen thus far over the past 10 years. All the other ones are actually uh you know, decently more than that. Uh but adding 17% to current price action would put Bitcoin where I mean puts Bitcoin back at 96 and a half,000 bucks. I mean, I might have to retract my statements of uh I don't think Bitcoin's just going to go [ __ ] zooming 100,000 bucks from here. Um cuz if we do see that happen, I mean, [ __ ] Uh history and stats are telling me my opinion is wrong and that's okay. You know, I'm happy to rearrange my opinion given some new information. So, yeah, that is very, very powerful. Of course, we should go take a quick look at traditional markets. Obviously, SPY new alltime highs. Crazy [ __ ] idea. We've been looking [ __ ] bullish ever since this thing did reclaim 6814. I was extremely extremely extremely extremely loud about that in that as soon as it does that, get ready for new ultimate for the [ __ ] party to go into the end of the year or at least to Q4. I think a lot of people are still bearish on this market. Look, I think it's a crazy rally as well. This is getting terminal. No doubt about that. And you will see some nasty pullbacks, but at the same time still wants to go higher. All higher term time frames bullish. Yes, they are extreme. Yes, they probably don't go, you know, for that much longer. I mean, in terms of time, um, but you know, Q4, I think it's still the timing for this current cycle. Same thing on NASDAQ right here. This one even stronger. This one correlates a little bit better to Bitcoin. And ultimately, it's like I would actually like a pullback here to be honest. But anyways, to answer the question at the beginning of this uh video because I did speak very briefly about um a stock that I'm actually uh buying more of um today in fact uh adding to you know more I guess longerterm positions is something of course in fact related to I mean it's not that related to Bitcoin but it it is it does have uh crypto you know corlaries and that is of course circle right here. We've been incredibly on this channel uh uh uh patient with or at least I've been incredibly patient, you know, getting a position here. I know a lot of people just [ __ ] punted this one way back on over here. And hey, congratulations. That's awesome. Uh but the way that things are setting up right now again with the Clarity Act being about to uh about to be voted on very soon. Um I do expect that this is one of those situations where you very well may see the beginning or sorry the completion of what is going to be a major reversal here. Weekly time frame shows all and the weekly time frame does have a higher low end. If you're reading this chart, you see high, you see low, you see lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low, uh, pops up into or sorry, low, low, lower high pops up into there. Then we get what I always look for to before I even uh, you know, interpret the potential of a, you know, of a real reversal, like a real major massive reversal, which is the higher low right here. And now it's already retesting around that previous uh, lower or, you know, lower high. So we got same highs with higher lows. the bias now is flipping at least for me that this thing is, you know, it's in a really strong position to have a major reversal. When you look at the monthly time frame, I mean, not bad. You know, it's it's a little bit new of a chart to really be analyzing, but it certainly is in there.

[00:11:51]By weekly time frame as well. Um, now this one will not really complete the reversal until we start to see a weekly closure or at least a daily closure above 137. But if that does happen, um, you know, looking at the daily right here, I mean, [ __ ] you can draw a very, very clean, um, Fibonacci extension for some areas of interest to the upside upon continuation. Uh, first major one's going to be about 162 to 168 or 169.

[00:12:13]Great number right there. Um, do I think that things ultimately stop there? Uh, maybe for short term, you know, a pullback, that's fine. But do I think that things would realistically stop there? No. uh at that point I think I think that this thing kind of just floats its way back to you know 1902 200 um ultimately. So yeah um this one again super easy to manage as well. Um the way that I'm looking at it is that I'm happy to hold my positions long as long as this thing remains above the price pivot right here at 10538. As long as you're above there all good. Uh below there I would capitulate and uh probably reposition lower you know assuming that it does get to you know somewhere uh that is acceptable. But for right now, you know, it is in position. We do have the event coming up. I think it's today or tomorrow, something like that. Um, so I do expect, you know, some some volatile price action here. And I imagine if things do go over well, then you're probably going to have a good result for Bitcoin as well. So, you can see all of the dominoes that are, you know, aligning in the background. Again, for me, it's very, very, very, very, very important to confirm via uh price action and whatnot and signals. Um but the setups are there and it is uh absolutely something that I am um you know well [ __ ] I'd be happy to see it. I think just also based off of the general market sentiment you know people are still I mean most people just aren't even [ __ ] watching this uh you know this this uh what's it called? Um this sector you know Bitcoin crypto it's like not the hot thing anymore and hasn't been for quite some time. And then also uh you know the people who are are generally bearish talking about 40,000 30,000 25,000 [ __ ] 5,000 whatever. I mean, look, maybe those things do happen over time, but it ain't my first target right now. Right now is is a time to be leaning on the upside, especially when I look at the funny race right here. I've didn't even [ __ ] catch this before.

[00:13:54]God damn, bad crown. Very bad crown. I must flagagulate myself later on. I've missed something. But we have found it before the end of the video in which funny rates are hitting the most negative level that we've seen in like a week, week or two. Uh, which is very interesting as Bitcoin brushes up against what is, you know, that topside boundary. So, it's very, you know, it's very, very close right there.

[00:14:15]interesting to see how the price or interesting to see how it is playing off this topside descending boundary right there. Anyways, I'm going to leave um this video on that note. I want to have one quick uh last announcement um because we got a lot of emails regarding this private group that I am um going to be hosting on June I think we start June 8th. Let me just double check. Yeah, June 8th. Um in which it is just for long-term people. Uh these people who are in the group which will be a very very small group. I'm thinking 10 to 12 people. I might even like reduce the number. Um but the idea is you come you come with your long-term um positions or your long-term assets that you're looking at your preferences everything that is relevant to you and you can effectively prompt me like a chat GBT and I will write out a full heads down an heads down an top down analysis um in which we go over all of the major you know all the major pivots all the major things all the major things that are more importantly you know your preferences um I'm using this data by the way to build an AI that's you know effectively going to be doing this at some point but you know at the beginning and for at least this group and maybe we do a second group probably not but you know at least the first group for 12 weeks and I should let you know it is 12 weeks um we will do that anyways if you want more details about that hit up elsaoutlook.com um like I said there is minimum spaces we already have kind of filled up quite a fair bit um the price it it is going to have a major price well I mean for some people major price for some people you know it ain't [ __ ] much, right?

[00:15:43]But but again, 12week group, you ask your questions um every week and then uh and then I do my best to uh to answer them up in significant detail. Anyways, if you want more information, hit up Elsa um and we'll go from there. Other than that, want to wish everyone the best. Take care. Much love and see you hopefully tomorrow for another live stream and maybe some maybe some more interesting Bitcoin price action.