What If We Missed The Bitcoin Bottom?

[00:00:00]Last week, I put out this video about my Bitcoin accumulation plan, the detailed strategy. You definitely need to watch that video cuz it's going to help out a lot.

[00:00:09]And even though a lot of you watched it, a lot of you liked it, there were a lot a lot of comments, a lot of but what about comments. What about this, what about that, what about this scenario, what about that scenario? And I just want to answer a lot of those questions in this follow-up video to the Bitcoin accumulation plan video. If you haven't watched that one, watch it first. It's going to give you some context. But essentially just to put it in a nice wrap it up in a nice tight bow.

[00:00:36]Here's the thing.

[00:00:38]If you are feeling the pinch, you want to buy Bitcoin right now, you do not want to wait for $49,000 or $38,555, which were both of my targets I've been waiting on since basically December, November. Um let's say you don't want to do that yet. Well, you can go ahead and start scaling into a position using a DCA strategy. Meaning that your dollar cost averaging by entering in with a position here, 1/7 of your total possible volume, adding more on the next pullback in another range that you predefine, which would be um 2/7 of your total possible volume.

[00:01:16]And then down here at $38,555, this would be your last DCA order. So, by doing it this way, you're able to preserve your portfolio, you're not going all in on anything, and you are keeping a lot of your money on the side so that even if you enter right now and you're you're feeling like, "Oh, 65K 58K was the bottom." I don't think it was. "58K was the bottom.

[00:01:40]Oh no, I missed it. I want to buy it right now." Cool, you can do that.

[00:01:43]And the reason why this is great is because once we get a pullback, which I believe will happen this month, and we go lower, and you feel like a little bit embarrassed, a little bit frustrated, and thinking like, "Man, I should not have done that. Why did I do that? At least you didn't go all in at 65k on the rally.

[00:02:01]Like a lot of people went all in up here at 83k and when I was like, "Hey guys, you don't want to do that. It's not going to work out well for you." And it didn't. So, the first but what about is the most obvious one.

[00:02:17]I know I've been cocky.

[00:02:18]I know I've been screaming wolf, crying wolf for months saying that Bitcoin is going to go to $49,000 and $38,555 for many, many, many, many, many reasons.

[00:02:32]But what if it doesn't?

[00:02:34]What if $58,000 is the actual bottom?

[00:02:39]If you're applying a DCA strategy by strategically keeping 6/7 of your total possible size out of the picture waiting for lower prices that never come what would be the trigger to buy in?

[00:02:57]I want to talk about that.

[00:02:59]Now, there's two different ways to approach this. There's always going to be time and price. If you guys have been keeping track Bitcoin has a very consistent record of sticking to a 4-year cycle despite what a lot of you wanted to believe back at the top in October or rather September, October, November. Now, I thought Bitcoin was going to top out in November. It didn't. It topped out in October. I was off by 1 month. But I was one of the only people screaming, "Protect profits. Take profits. This is a top year. It's a top year." It topped out a month before I was expecting it to.

[00:03:32]That's too bad.

[00:03:33]But I was right about it being a top year and I've been right so far about this being a bottom year. Okay?

[00:03:39]Timing matters a lot.

[00:03:42]Because it's a 4-year cycle, because we topped out in October 2025, I do think it makes a whole lot of sense to have Bitcoin bottom out basically a year later. Over here in October 6th, if it's going to be a perfect cycle, that'd be so crazy.

[00:04:01]But, if we're going to get an exact 365-day bear market, which kind of sort of happened back in 2022 bear market, and the 2018 bear market was a little bit longer if I'm not mistaken. Or no, 2022 was a little bit longer by 2 weeks.

[00:04:18]2018 was 52 weeks exactly.

[00:04:21]So, let's say that that scenario does play out. Well, we can use time to our advantage.

[00:04:27]So, instead of worrying about price points, now we can worry not worry about, but now you can consider time.

[00:04:34]And this is where it's really helpful just to study the 4-year cycle. So, I'm going to leave this guy here cuz I want to go back to 2022.

[00:04:42]And the reason for going back to 2022 is to focus solely on that time.

[00:04:48]So, knowing that Bitcoin topped out over here on November 10th, it bottomed out here on November 21st, so 377 bars.

[00:05:01]It's pretty close to a year though.

[00:05:03]That's nuts.

[00:05:04]Right?

[00:05:05]Let's just think about the time aspect.

[00:05:08]Back over in 2022 when we saw Bitcoin bottom out first. This is where a lot of people thought the bottom was in when we were like 222 bars in.

[00:05:20]We saw a really nice rally from this point, too.

[00:05:23]A nice rally that basically moved up from 17K all the way up 40% to basically $25,000, which felt really good.

[00:05:31]So, let's forget about the price. Let's just think about time. If you're still going off of the 4-year cycle, you know that it should be a year-long bear market.

[00:05:40]And if we're only 22 222 days in, or let's see, 280 days in, you know that there's still some time left. So, what happens with the rest of the time until we get to that 365 marker, right?

[00:05:55]Well, this is where we can start to make some decisions. No matter what the price is, I'm going to go ahead and allocate more here. I'm going to put in my lot two, or basically 2/7 of my total position. So, let's say that I bought in up here in this state where I was just feeling the pinch.

[00:06:15]And then I wanted to buy in on the next little moment that happened, which was lower than the previous high of 25K.

[00:06:20]This one is here at what? We'll say here at 23K, okay?

[00:06:26]This is where we added our next position. And then we get one more little tease, and again, we're just our emotions are getting us or getting the better of us, rather, and it's not really helping our position or our portfolio, but let's just say we finally decide to DCA in here, cuz we know that the longer this goes, we are now getting up to a year, 365 days in. Like it That's our That's it. That's right there.

[00:06:48]You could totally do it time-based.

[00:06:50]It's not necessarily price-based. It's more about time.

[00:06:53]Entering on your impulses, I mean, it's not the best thing to do, but if, you know, push comes to shove and you're like, "Okay, well, I need to order more. I need to get more. I need to get more. Like I'm really panicking.

[00:07:05]I'm really freaking out." Well, we can do that based off of time. Again, assuming that we have a 4-year cycle.

[00:07:11]So, this will be uh our 1/7 order.

[00:07:15]And we're going to make this centered and make this in the middle.

[00:07:20]Vertical. Perfect. So, there's 1/7.

[00:07:24]And now this is going Oh my gosh, no. I need to do it this way.

[00:07:28]TradingView.

[00:07:29]Actually, it's my fault. So, we're going to do another order here. This is where we're really going like, "Crap. Okay, I don't want to do it." So, now this is 2/7, or which is basically 3/7 total.

[00:07:43]And then, it'll take a second for it to load cuz it's TradingView again. And then we start to feel the pinch yet again. So, now this is 4/7s of our total possible volume, which equals 7/7s total. So, we are fully allocated and lo and behold aping in here at 25k and then we're averaging down some.

[00:08:03]Now we're averaging down some, we'll still be able to get a good DCA'd position in around 22k, which in the long term works really well.

[00:08:13]Time matters a lot.

[00:08:15]Let's go ahead and do the same thing with where we are right now.

[00:08:20]Again, I still think that we're going to be going lower, but let's say that we don't. Let's say that we've actually just bottomed out already.

[00:08:27]Even though I don't think that's the case, but whatever.

[00:08:29]And you're feeling the pinch today.

[00:08:32]Cool. Well, let's have you put in your 1/7th order here. So, this is 1/7th uh one out of seventh total possible volume, okay?

[00:08:44]Great. So, we know that we have Oh my gosh, I deleted it. No, I didn't. Okay.

[00:08:49]This is our due date. So, we know right here this is where we're going to put in 4/7s or this is going to be 7/7s total volume.

[00:08:56]Okay?

[00:08:57]So, that means we have to make a decision somewhere around here. We want to have that last order.

[00:09:04]Something like this.

[00:09:05]Oh my gosh, I have to do that again, don't I? Vertical center.

[00:09:10]Thank you. Um so, we'll have to make a decision.

[00:09:13]Where and rather when do we want to do it? So, instead of worrying about whatever the price is, we can just kind of go like this from basically today 83 days out until the supposed exact 365-day bear market length.

[00:09:34]That's the bottom. So, we can kind of eye and just put that next order right in the middle. Or, if we're feeling a little bit more anxious, of course, sooner or later.

[00:09:44]Okay?

[00:09:45]The other thing to consider as well, and I said this, I believe, in the last video, but I've also made a big point about this, too.

[00:09:52]In the last bear market, after Bitcoin had already fallen, so, we got our top here.

[00:10:00]Oh, that's March 2022. What am I doing?

[00:10:02]There we go.

[00:10:05]So, November 10th, 2021, to the bottom here.

[00:10:10]376 bars, right? But, even let's just do 365, cuz it basically was right on the nose, it's perfect. Even after bottoming out that perfect time, we still had how many bars of grace until we finally recovered? We had about 2 months.

[00:10:27]This is the thing that people don't remember. And it's pretty amazing. Even from, and this is the worst part, too.

[00:10:33]If we just take this bottom here, this is where people got really antsy. 220 bars in.

[00:10:38]Again, we had 206 bars. That's 206 days until Bitcoin finally started recovering. Gasp, right? Magically, on January 1st, or basically the first week of January, it started to rally up.

[00:10:52]And January was incredible.

[00:10:55]If we go back further to 2018, same thing happens, okay? We're going to measure the top to the drop. Again, we're just focusing on time. There's our top, December 17th, 2017, to the very, very bottom. 363 bars.

[00:11:10]Basically, a year.

[00:11:12]Even after bottoming out, we still had a ton of grace. We had 108 bars. We'll just say 100 bars, okay? 100 days of grace to buy the bottom.

[00:11:26]Okay?

[00:11:28]So, does this concept make sense with scaling in and making sure that we're scaling in now and it has to be right here.

[00:11:36]Sure. Yeah, why not? Okay. But just keep in mind, we had and we're going to revert this back over here. So we had about 60 days, 2 months to quietly accumulate and go, well, well, we bottomed out. We still have about 60 days left in 2022. In 2018, we had 100 days.

[00:11:56]So we'll just take the 60 bars. Let's say that we have another 60 bars, which I think it's actually going to be longer.

[00:12:02]Um you want to know how long I think it's going to be until we finally see that recovery start? It's probably going to be about 87 bars. Why? Cuz that's when January 1st is, 2027. That's when we start our recovery year, which will be very, very fun.

[00:12:16]So let's just push this idea a little bit further.

[00:12:21]You're feeling the pinch today. Okay.

[00:12:23]Well, stick [snorts] to time.

[00:12:25]If we have about 83 bars left to the bottom and we know that we have a grace period between 60 days and 100 days, right?

[00:12:36]Well, why not just kick this further down the road, down here to December?

[00:12:41]Just to see. And we could put this closer to a possible bottom time and around October. So late September, early October.

[00:12:50]This way you don't have to freak out about the price. You just stick to a plan. You have a calendar reminder, buy Bitcoin.

[00:12:56]Buy Bitcoin. That's it.

[00:12:59]I don't know what the price is going to be at these times, although I continue to argue that it will be lower.

[00:13:05]But if you're worried about that, or rather you're thinking about the but what about scenario if you miss the bottom or if the bottom's already in, I get it. I understand.

[00:13:16]So if you're feeling that you can't reliably use price action and you don't think that it's going to hit my targets, this is one thing that you could do is time wise.

[00:13:27]Now let's go a little bit further in this exercise, okay?

[00:13:32]We are going to get rid of all this stuff.

[00:13:35]And now let's talk about buying in here again with 1/7. So, let's say I mean again, I can't take it.

[00:13:42]1/7 This is 1/7 uh total volume, okay?

[00:13:48]But instead of time, now you're worried about price. Let's say that for whatever reason, Bitcoin continues to go on a tear and it goes up higher and higher and you're feeling like crap, crap, crap, crap, crap. I've been there before.

[00:14:03]Markets will go in both directions. It's true.

[00:14:06]I don't think we're going to have this kind of a rally that we saw from March to May up here, but that was a pretty big 27% move. We saw a 27% move. That'd put Bitcoin around 73K. That'd be pretty amazing. Some some interesting lines in the sand to consider would be some Fibonacci levels, historical ones.

[00:14:25]So, if we're just considering our short-term fibs, well, let's work backwards, yeah. Short-term fibs.

[00:14:33]Um right now, we have a 0.618 Fibonacci level, which is an extremely powerful level of resistance that usually the price of Bitcoin or any chart will respect. It's either going to be super strong support or resistance depending on where the price is um and wherever the 6.8 level is. So, right now we're below. So, it should be strong resistance and it's right above 70K, which I don't think it's going to go that high. I think 69,000 or 70,000 is a good level, but we'll see what happens with BTC.

[00:15:04]But let's say that it goes up a lot higher.

[00:15:07]This could be a line in the sand moment where you've bought in here, you can't take it anymore. So, we have our first DCA order. You don't think it's going to go lower. That's fine. That's fair. Now you have another order up here.

[00:15:20]So, this is your line in the sand moment where you're just going to pull the trigger no matter what. And if it happens to go up even higher, that's where you're going to be allocating even more.

[00:15:29]Now, obviously, by leaving more money on the table, you're not going to have a better DCA'd position. Because you're going to be DCA'ing as the price goes up, adding more, so you're actually going to move your average up higher.

[00:15:45]No duh.

[00:15:46]But again, this is just how it works.

[00:15:48]So, then again, by the time we get up to that second allocation, probably our entry will be around 72K.

[00:15:56]Could that hurt us in the long run?

[00:15:58]Only slightly so.

[00:16:00]And again, I do expect Bitcoin to make a new all-time high.

[00:16:04]I don't think it's going to be as high as many other people think.

[00:16:07]Uh if we're averaged in around 72K, we surpass the previous all-time high, that's already what, a return of 77%, which is good. Let's say we go up to 150K, that's a 100% return.

[00:16:19]That's a pretty good return on investment, especially if it's a long-term investment that you have, right?

[00:16:25]So, there's nothing wrong with that.

[00:16:27]Ideally, it'd be better to get in lower, but again, if you have some hard and fast and fixed levels where you're like, there's no way I I can't believe I just did that, I need to buy in right now, just just understand that that mentality to have is exceptionally dangerous.

[00:16:41]It's very dangerous to give in to your emotions, to give in to that feeling of FOMO.

[00:16:48]This is why I keep talking about the Better Trader's Journal in all my videos, guys. This It helps you to track your emotions. It helps you to build the trading plan in advance.

[00:16:57]We're just looking at one Fibonacci retracement, though.

[00:17:01]So, let's talk about some other levels to pay attention to. Now, we have our 2026 Fibs, which is from our top to our immediate drop, which has a line in the sand moment here at $77,000.

[00:17:14]Doesn't really line up too well with our 618, but there's pretty good resistance here around 69k.

[00:17:23]Surprise, surprise.

[00:17:24]If we were to take our 2022 Fibonacci retracements, well, then we have a massive move up here with 69k. Wait a second, 69k again?

[00:17:33]And 69k again?

[00:17:35]And $69,000 again? Wait, are you sure?

[00:17:37]These are three different measurements of time and they're all lining up together to form a massive wall of resistance at $69,000.

[00:17:46]That is so strange, isn't it?

[00:17:48]Well, let's say, okay, I want to buy in today. I can't I can't handle it. I can't stomach it. So, if Bitcoin cracks above 69k, I'm going to be deploying more. Right? You can use this approach.

[00:18:00]It's totally okay. Nothing wrong with it. I wouldn't recommend it, but you can.

[00:18:04]Um the the problem with this, obviously, is that you're buying into euphoric short-term uptrend.

[00:18:10]Um what whatever the chart is.

[00:18:13]There's nothing wrong with it.

[00:18:15]It's better than going all in.

[00:18:18]But understand that it's like yeah. You can have these line in the sand moments with price. It's okay.

[00:18:26]Um but the idea again is to allocate lower. That's the whole point of DCA.

[00:18:31]But that's a pretty good level to watch.

[00:18:33]If it breaks above, then it's like, well, 70k. I didn't want to buy here, but I'm going to be buying here anyway and uh I didn't want to buy here at 80k, but there it is. I have to do it anyway because it's not going to go down lower.

[00:18:45]Okay?

[00:18:46]I don't foresee this happening.

[00:18:50]Mainly because July is historically very bullish.

[00:18:54]And these little bull traps that happen in these nice conditions that are making everyone feel really, really anxious, they can mess with your emotions big time.

[00:19:06]Now, I did not go into Ethereum. I did not go into um any other tickers, to be honest, because the same concept applies to everything else.

[00:19:18]And this is stuff, by the way, that I'm already sharing in the Better Traders Club. I'm preparing people for the accumulation plan.

[00:19:26]Now, they're actually watching this ahead of all of you on YouTube. Hello.

[00:19:30]So, this is one of the perks of being in the Better Traders Club, but it's not just getting early access to videos.

[00:19:35]It's getting access to a variety of tools and indicators, alerts, uh resources, videos, analysis, like tons of stuff and way more on the way.

[00:19:45]It's It's always growing and it's always getting better.

[00:19:49]Um so, you'll want to check out the Better Traders Club, for sure. The link is down below.

[00:19:54]And of course, you need something to use. You need an exchange to trade on to do all this stuff. And I do think that Phemex is a great exchange. Not only can you earn rewards as you trade, as you build positions, as you stay can participate in the different instruments for earning and all that stuff. They have lots of giveaways, too.

[00:20:13]So, you can actually earn as you trade.

[00:20:17]And of course, AFX, which is a decentralized perpetual futures exchange.

[00:20:23]This is a really exciting new exchange that anyone in the world can sign up to.

[00:20:27]Again, both the links to sign up for both of these are in the description below. I think it's worth it. Now, one thing I will say in terms of both of these exchanges or any exchanges is that I won't be buying the bottom on 100X leverage. I think that's dumb.

[00:20:40]Um I think it's much better to buy on spot, mainly because you're going to be paying up the wazoo over 2-3 years in fees as the price goes up higher. So, yes, it looks cool on paper, but the fees are going to eat you alive.

[00:20:54]So, futures and perpetual markets are really meant to be traded in short times or short time frames.

[00:21:02]Um there's a lot that goes into that where I'm I I even want to go down that road. But just understand, it's it seems like it would be the juiciest thing ever to catch the pico bottom at 100x leverage and just let it sit for 3 years. But you would be shocked to know how much the fees will eat you alive.

[00:21:19]Okay?

[00:21:21]The main thing is that everyone's comments are great.

[00:21:25]Everyone's comments in last video was really, really helpful. The The two big questions were essentially, but what if Bitcoin doesn't bottom out?

[00:21:33]What if that was the bottom? Well, we can use price or we can use time. Actually, it's time first and price. So, we can decide now in advance if this is going to be a real 4-year cycle, which means Bitcoin should bottom out about 365-ish, 52 weeks later than the top in October 2025. Then that means October 2026, getting close to there. And we know that there is a grace period at least 2 months, if not longer, where we see the price of BTC kind of just chop a little bit after flopping a lot lower.

[00:22:04]But what if that doesn't happen? What if the bottom is already in? Well, we know that we can put some line in the sand lines in the sand in terms of alerts and just go, "You know what? If the price of BTC gets up this high and I just feel like I missed the boat." Great, you can allocate a little bit more. But the key is not going all in.

[00:22:21]I might be wrong. Bitcoin might not hit those targets that I've been talking about for months.

[00:22:28]Which is okay.

[00:22:29]And again, I have these I have this trading plan already in my head. I'm still holding out for lower lows.

[00:22:36]But I also know, just like when Bitcoin topped out, I had a line in the sand moment. I actually sold the majority of my stack of BTC around $104,000.

[00:22:47]Way less than I thought I would. I sold some at around 120k, which is great, but I didn't sell nearly enough. And I really wanted to sell a lot more near the top. And I did. I actually did a much better job this time around compared to 2018.

[00:23:00]But that's the thing is that it takes time in the charts with your portfolio with real money to see how well you can do this thing.

[00:23:10]And the beautiful thing about crypto and Bitcoin is that it's a very cyclical market.

[00:23:14]Whether you want to believe it is or not, it just is.

[00:23:17]So, if we have bottomed out, I'm going to have to have one of those line in the sands moment what I don't really think it's going to happen like that, but I could be wrong. You know, I was wrong about the top off by a month.

[00:23:34]>> [snorts] >> But hopefully this video gives you some food for thought.

[00:23:38]Uh again, you guys are are always providing some really great feedback in the comments section down below. And I want to make sure that you don't miss the video that really started this all last week. I talked about a DCA strategy and I kind of alluded to it, but I didn't really go into why and then all that fun stuff and those are lower targets. You're going to want to watch that video next. And until the next time you know what to do, stay awesome and stay in the green. Peace.