Sensex ki baat with ICICI Direct | ICICI Direct.

Ajouté : 2026-04-30

[00:00:09]Hello everyone and welcome to Sensex Keepad. We are back with yet another live session and we have Mr. Raji Pak Singh with us and we'll be speaking about what's up with today's expiry at Sensex. Welcome Raj. And we have seen a massive gap down today with Sensex and it's currently trading around the 76400 mark.

[00:00:30]Particularly with rising pressure due to factors like oil prices, wing gain. How do you read the weakness today? Is it temporary profit booking or a sign of a deeper pressure? What do you think?

[00:00:42]>> Uh hi, good afternoon everyone. Well, uh obviously if prices have moved to its recent highs that is $125.

[00:00:52]So there has to be a lot of pressure in the market. uh along with that your currency has depreciated beyond 95 uh rupee against dollar. So overall when it comes to economic sense it doesn't uh it is obvious that market should face uh pressure. Uh but uh just like to add a bit of positivity here that last time when we were around 110 112 odd levels nifty was somewhere close to 22,000 or 22500.

[00:01:23]Now while pool prices have surpassed those highs, rupee has depreciated further from those levels. So despite an extra ounce of negativity, uh we are somewhere close to 23800. Now uh from a derivatives perspective, I wasn't expecting nifty to move below 24,000. 23800 I have been repeating as a major support for the nifty. So today on intraday basis it has even moved below 23800 uh when it comes to nifty u as of now I'm hoping that it these levels should hold and we might witness a bit of recovery but yeah considering this uh volatility which at least in terms of crude prices and coming extended weekend so not sure whether market is going to open uh on in on the coming in one day but u if I have to just go by the levels I think if it is closing above 23800 uh I would take it as a a bit of positive sign only we will not be shorting the market and uh at the same time if somebody was to uh look for a trade uh could be an opportunity not for this week not for the 5th of uh May but for the next week or for the monthly expiry to make a bull call spread or take a positive position in the index.

[00:02:53]So that's how I would like to play. Uh as of now I'm not expecting nifty to move below 23800. Uh that means somewhere close to 76500 level should act as an uh support while Sensex is trading below 76500. I think the lows are nearly around 250. But I'm expecting that sens should close around 76500 levels 77.

[00:03:19]That was uh the view on the basis of that nifty full 24,000 the view has went wrong. But here also I'm not turning quite negative volatility again it is near the 20 odd levels. So from here onwards I would say uh I'll hold my horses. So yes we are in a consolidation mode. We went up to 24500 which also I wasn't expecting. I was expecting the market should continue to uh remain hover around 24,000 plus - 200 mark and as of now yes it is on the minus side minus 200 mark. So I think from the next e-commerce we might see a renewed upward bias but as of now uh from the intraday perspective also not negative from the positional perspective also not negative.

[00:04:13]Well, you already spoke about the volat volatility, but to zoom in a little bit more, the surge that we witnessed today in the India weeks was quite a bit. Does that is that signaling some kind of nerv nervousness and what could this mean for upcoming movements in Sensex only?

[00:04:32]>> So, if you can uh pull out this indic I I might be able to explain you a bit.

[00:04:40]>> It's quite a bit over here.

[00:04:51]uh make it daily.

[00:04:54]>> It's on daily.

[00:04:55]>> Yeah. Yes. Yes. Yes. So see uh in the end of the uh March or early April we were around 28 levels, right? And what you are witnessing today is a gain of nearly 10%.

[00:05:11]But just 5 days back you are also around the uh these levels.

[00:05:16]When you compare the same volatility and you want to take out okay the result uh you want to take out uh the rising crude prices the if the crude prices are at such a high if market is under so much of then this volatility shouldn't be around 19 levels. It should be somewhere around 24 25. Right? If you're talking about negativity in the market then volatility should be much higher what it is right now anyway nifty is at the lowest levels of the series nearly right and despite that we are not witnessing uh that uptick so somehow what I believe that until unless we are not sustaining above these levels which are near 20 uh 2020 and half after a sharp decline with what we have witnessed on uh 8th of April right so after 8th of April volatility hasn't done much it has largely remained uh in the range of 20 to 18 and despite such a profit booking or such a sharp significant pressure in the market uh it is still not beyond 20 so uh at some point of time I believe that okay volatility but it is not as I has it could have been and that is suggesting market panic prices what I believe that until unless volatility index is closing or trading below 20 levels or you can say 20.5 uh I will take the today's decline in a stride that it is a part and parcel of a broader consolidation of the market and nifty has been consolidating from the last four weeks if I'm not wrong if you remember uh on 8th of April when we opened around 23850 uh with a sharp gap up of I think 500 points. So since that day and today it's almost a month now uh and we are around those levels only. So neither the there's any major move we have witnessed in the nifty nor we have witnessed any major move in the volatility index. So uh in nutshell I think this is more about the consolidation and uh I think after a couple of weeks this consolation should end up in a positive breakout.

[00:07:40]>> All right but let's speak about all the sectors they are nearly all in red especially the key heavy weights like banking and IT are being witnessing major weakness. uh to what extent is the broad-based decline contributing to the fall in Sensex that we are seeing right now?

[00:07:59]See uh if you're talking about the Sensex then because Sensex is just having 30 stocks and those 30 largely primarily the large caps private sector heavy weights uh technology heavy weights and if we go by our past commentary uh as well. So we have been significantly skeptical about the banking and IT. Uh we were expecting that relative under performance in the banking and IT doain to continue and tier. So that's why your banking and it they have been relatively underperforming the market.

[00:08:54]So that is the reason why Sensex is relatively underperforming nifty. But in a broader scenario uh we still believe that because of significant short rollover uh there is not much of positivity in the banking and IT domain.

[00:09:11]So they are likely to continue their underperformance in the days to come. So while even in the case of recovery also we might witness that stocks from the other sectors they will take the lead uh like we have been discussing about the pharma power and the metal pack. So they will take the lead but just because the sheer weight of banking and technology pack holds together nearly 40% weight in nifty and more than that in sensex we may not be able to see the same sort of performance uh in the headline index. So even uh not just for today uh for the in the coming future also um we believe that your second tier market should perform much better than the headline index. Even uh in the recent recovery the small cap index was up by nearly 20%. Nifty next 50 has made a fresh 52- week high while Nifty has just gained around 6 to 7%.

[00:10:09]recovery banking first round of recovery. Yes, you can uh say okay it was short recovery but in broader sense the recovery was missing and we believe that is the uh major reason why we haven't seen a major move towards 25,000 levels in nifty or inexense towards 80 81,000 levels so going ahead I think while expecting this short move or FI is coming back into Indian market or I think by the mid of the May series we can expect okay your banking and IT stocks particularly banking may come into picture ITI will remain uh skeptical may not be able to see that kind of performance in the days to come but banking decline upside not sure about that but we leveled uh decline I'm expecting in the banking and the current levels even in the banking index that provides a good entry opportunity from a uh trading uh perspective uh investment obviously large they are at a very uh cheap uh in terms of valuations also. So overall uh while one can put more focus in the rest of the sector second tier market but uh when it comes to banking and IT uh we believe they will continue to relative underperform so not much change in terms of >> all right let's head to today's settlement for Sensex what are the key levels support resistance that you would want to recommend to our viewers or what sectors to watch out So first of all the level which I was expecting they have been broken. I wasn't expecting that uh Sensex will move below 77,000 or Nifty to move below 24,000.

[00:12:15]So it has been broken. The next level for me in terms of nifty is 23800. Uh correspondingly if I have to look at then somewhere close to 76 200 250 are the levels where since it's Hijana worst case scenario could be 76,000 but even at current juncture I will not be the shorting uh the markets we might witness a last hour recovery so while saying recovery when the crude is around 126 is a big deal but still I'm hoping for a bit of recovery uh since it may close beyond or above 76500 can inch towards uh 77,000 by the end of the day uh just because today is the monthly expiry we should witness and volatility and the volatility hasn't been over down we might even see the uptick so I'm not saying that we will turn flat but uh there could be a possibility that Sensex make close to uh at least 200 300 points higher from current levels um so for me if I have to take a bet I would go with a be bull call spread where I would be buying 76500 call and uh uh no ratio but we reduce the cost by selling uh 77,000 call option.

[00:13:40]>> All right. Uh that's a wrap for today's session for with Sensex key. Thank you so much for watching and we'll see you in the next session. Thank you so much.

[00:13:50]>> Thank you.

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