Sundar expertly dismantles the illusion of global decoupling by showing how local yield spreads and currency pressures inevitably dictate market reality. This analysis serves as a necessary, data-driven cold shower for traders over-reliant on superficial global indicators.
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Deep Dive
DISAPPOINTING Markets? Post Market Report 21-May-26Added:
Hi, this is Pierre Sundar. Uh, welcome to postmarket report sponsored by delta.exchange.
Uh, we have just only 10 days to go for my Bangalore workshop and I think after Bangalore workshop I might be uh traveling abroad. So I may be spending few more months abroad. So this may be the last chance for you to learn from me. So if you are interested contact our office uh details are given in the description.
Now coming back to the market and every day if Nifty opens higher and then uniformly selling comes and Nifty falls more than 200 point and if Nifty opens gap down then the buying comes and Nifty rallies more than 200 point. This has been the case every day in May series and today also uh no different and in fact today we strongly believed that that may not happen.
Why? Number one uh the president of US said you know some peace negotiation it is in the final stage. Then here RBI liquidity injection of about 5 billion and because of all these things we thought you know uh Nifty may fall but will not fall more than 200 point but to my surprise number one Nifty has fallen more than 250 points and number two the worst thing is that you know uh the Nifty future yesterday the Nifty future closed at 35 points premium to the nifty spot.
I'm talking about the actual closing, not the weighted average closing.
But today, the Nifty future closed about 30 points lower than the spot.
That means a 65 point wiped out in Nifty future premium between yesterday and today. That is very very terrible.
And then the third one very interesting despite such a big fall the India V did not shoot up but as soon as our market closed there was some news uh Iran said you know their nuclear uh things will not be leaving the Iran or something like that.
Then suddenly the nifty future has fallen 200 point.
A nifty future has fallen 200 point from intraday high to the closing level. Then another 200 point fall immediately after our market close. So once again the same problem a nifty comes and nifty future comes and breaks 23400 or between 23300 to 23400 buying comes rallies.
Then as and when the nifty future comes between 23800 to 23900 selling comes and market falls.
And this is what has been happening for the last many trading sessions.
And then the last Tuesday one red candle of 400 point fall in nifty that red candle could not be taken out last week Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, this week, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. So seven trading sessions Nifty could not take out one red candle.
So you can see how bad is our market.
And today the prime minister is having a cabinet meeting and I do not know there were a lot of rumors going around in the WhatsApp messages uh there may be some change in the finance minister portfolio and you know the people were I don't know they were just uh uh trying to say that you know if there is a change in the finance minister's portfolio then the market may shoot up so don't uh sell the call options or don't short the market But the people who shoted the market so they got the instant reward now the gift nifty is lower.
So uh India is having uh hell lot of problem. I think today the fall was mainly because of some news that uh the report rate may be increased.
Uh so that is the only way they can contain the rupee depreciation.
Look at us a 30-year treasury bond the yield is around 5.2%.
And in India it is about 7%.
So the difference of only 1.8%.
And then know surely the nifty Indian rupee will depreciate at least by 1.8% peranom. So that means where is the incentive for foreigners to come and park the money here. So that is one of the main reasons why rupee has been depreciating.
In between there was some news that you know FIA's parking money in GC that interest uh will be some tax concessions will be given but there has been no confirmation of any sort of so that is again uh viewed as something very very negative.
So uh the yearon problem is still not over. Crude oil uncertaintity is continuing. As long as the crude oil uncertaintity is continuing uh rupee will be under pressure.
So the government is trying their best uh you know trying to all kinds of measures to uh cushion the impact of this rupee depreciation but I do not know what they can do actually more.
uh so today entire global markets were looking good South Korean market was up nearly 8% today and despite that and we closed negative today morning I firmly believe that today market will be ending in green that's why I I said you know uh today I'm wearing a wrong color shirt so I did not choose my wife as chosen and then end of the day one of my friends he messaged me sir wife is always right and see today the nifty closed negative and today reliance came under selling pressure IT index came under selling pressure and uh banking stocks especially also came under selling pressure and Sensex uh I think today Sensex expiry so as usual it went up to 76,000 then from there it came to 75,000 uh a,000 point move is just a normal for uh Sensex.
So overall this market you know is still very very bearish. So there is no uh restite for our market and on top of which you know this kind of market I'm sure FAS must have been net sellers only. Uh no the still the data is still not out. So I'm sure they must have sold otherwise why the market is falling so big.
So let us see uh what's going to happen tomorrow. Uh it all depends upon you know uh any news flow headline news about this uh Iran issue and then uh you know today morning the crude oil has fallen 56%.
But despite that you know see today global markets were good. Crude oil fell by 5 6%. Gold also fell. So everything positive for in India but still we ended in negative then you know what can take this market higher and I also do not know and totally confused and this entire May series has been very very volatile but markets are not going anywhere. So I think we should be happy you know uh if Nifty closes somewhere around 23800 by the end of this series looking at the open interest a 23800 call option has been added in huge amount as well as 24,000 so 24,000 is definitely going to be the resistance.
So rest of the things we will discuss tomorrow morning. Hope you enjoyed watching this video. Thank you for watching.
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