India Business Hour: Market Ends Mildly Higher, Trump: Iran Begging For A Deal & More Updates

Added: 2026-05-21

[00:00:08]Good evening. Thanks for joining us on India Business Hour. I'm Shereen Bhan.

[00:00:11]The top stories that we're tracking for you this evening. The rupee hit a record low of 96.96 against the dollar. The Central Bank decides to inject [music] $5 via forex swap. The Nifty and the Sensex end mildly higher after a sharp recovery intraday.

[00:00:27]Top economists warn of a deeper external imbalance building up on the balance of payments [music] deficit widening to $65 billion. They also say the rupee could decline further.

[00:00:36]The US and Iran trade [music] threats as the fragile ceasefire drags on without concrete assurances from either side.

[00:00:42]Trump [music] claims Iran is tired and begging for a deal. Tehran says a return to war will feature many more [music] surprises and could expand the conflict beyond the region.

[00:00:52]Russian President Putin and China's leader Xi Jinping hold talks in Beijing.

[00:00:55]The joint statement [music] says their ties make an important contribution towards a just multipolar world. Moscow and Beijing also reach [music] an understanding on a pipeline that will carry 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Siberia to China via Mongolia.

[00:01:11]Prime Minister Modi wraps up his five-nation official trip in Rome. India and Italy elevate their ties to [music] special strategic partnership, defense cooperation, collaboration in the critical mineral [music] sector, among others, discussed.

[00:01:26]US Secretary [music] of State Marco Rubio to visit India at the end of the month. He's scheduled to take part in a meeting of foreign ministers of the Quad countries. Washington says the secretary will also discuss energy security, trade, and defense cooperation.

[00:01:39]Kumar Mangalam Birla presses the pedal, injects significant capital across group companies, pumps in 4,730 crores in Vodafone via promoter entity, and [music] 3,080 crores in AB Capital. The AB Group is also part of a consortium that acquired IPL team [music] Royal Challengers Bengaluru for $1.8 billion.

[00:01:56]dollars.

[00:01:58]Prasar Bharati tells the Delhi High Court that acquiring broadcasting rights for the upcoming Football World Cup is not its responsibility. [music] With 3 weeks to go for the gala event, FIFA yet to announce a deal in India due to differences [music] over pricing. The football body had reduced the valuation for rights for the 2026 and 2030 World Cup from $100 million to $35 million.

[00:02:19]Google wraps up its annual developer conference, unveiled its biggest search overhaul in 25 years. A 24/7 personal AI agent called Gemini Spark and smart glasses built with Samsung sends a signal that Gemini is now the infrastructure layer underneath every Google product.

[00:02:38]Prime Minister Modi brought us a gift, a very, very good toffee.

[00:02:44]Melody.

[00:02:45]>> Melody.

[00:02:45]>> [laughter] >> A video shared by Italian [music] Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni thanking Prime Minister Modi for gifting her a pack of Melody chocolates sends social media into a frenzy. Prime Minister Modi shares pictures from dinner with his Italian counterpart triggering the much-celebrated Melody memes.

[00:03:05]Arsenal becomes the champion of the English football after a 22-year wait.

[00:03:09]Fans in North London erupt in celebration after rival Manchester City was held to a draw. The club's manager, Mikel Arteta, is the second youngest coach [music] to win the English Premier League.

[00:03:25]All of that and more coming up for you in just a bit, but onto the day's market action. The Sensex and the Nifty ended higher today recovering over 1% from their previous lows. The Nifty ending above 23,650.

[00:03:35]Reliance Industries, Hindalco, Axis Bank leading the [music] recovery today. So, just about in the green for the Nifty off its intraday low, uh 117 points higher on the Sensex, 150 points higher on the Nifty Bank, and 300 points higher there as far as the mid-cap [music] index is concerned. Currency, the rupee hitting a record low of 96.96 against the dollar. Dealers say the RBI's dollar selling alleviated [music] some pressure. The Reserve Bank of India said it will conduct a $5 billion forex swap on the 26th [music] of May. Now, that's here with more on the rupee. That the what are dealers telling you?

[00:04:11]It is a more of the same market. The rupee has been responding to the crude pressure for some time now. But you know, you can take pain every day more pain and there's more loss, but there comes a time when the pain is simply too unbearable. I $110 at for the last 3 days for you know, all of this week and over $100 continuously from May for this entire month. That has quite clearly resulted in the breaking of spirit in the market. So, this the distance from 96 to 97 seems to have been covered rather quickly. We hit 96 on May 15th and now, you know, we we reached very close to 97 in early morning trade and we were among the weaker currencies in Asia at least. The RBI intervention was not there in the early morning trades and maybe that's why the rush happened. There after the Reserve Bank selling dollars alleviated the pressure, but not entirely. We can see the rupee dilly-dallying between 96.80 and 96.90 for a better part of noon trades. So, really the pressure is not going away at all. The some of the dealers say that lack of any further announcements is also kind of disappointing. The the small number of rupee bulls who think that okay, rupee has fallen enough and it's time now to sell dollars. Those that that category of people are getting disappointed that there are no announcements. You know, the media is speculating about capital gains tax, withholding tax, ECB announcements, all kinds of things are being speculated, but since nothing has come that is adding to their disappointment is one school of thought.

[00:05:52]You know, the event happens, the rupee falls, and people are looking for explanations. So, all these are coming from the chatter in the market. Uh but, uh the important point is that uh the rupee is falling a little rapidly.

[00:06:05]Uh May 15th to May 20th, a fall from 96 to almost 97 is not a very happy thing at all.

[00:06:13]Natham, many thanks. 96.82 is where the rupee closed for the day. And staying with that, leading economists say that a deeper external imbalance is building up. They also say that the balance of payment deficit could widen to $65 billion while adding that the rupee needs to find a new equilibrium. Take a look.

[00:06:29]I think the government uh will is likely contemplating all instruments, withholding taxes, raising capital, how to raise ECBs. My only submission advice from the outside would be that, you know, if the idea is to raise a large enough quantum of capital to act as a circuit breaker, uh we should go big. Right? So, if you want to raise it, raise a significant amount of capital so that you can do two things. You can significantly augment reserves, and then you change the narrative in the FX market because, you know, uh market participants see, "Oh, India's attracted a very large quantum." And exporter importer behavior, hopefully and investor behavior, will change. Whatever we do on the currency, uh it should be something that's not just for the short term. It's also for the medium term.

[00:07:11]Because this is a problem that has been with us for the last 2 3 years. It's probably too early for the RBI to start thinking about a rate hike in the June policy itself. Uh because, as you rightly mentioned, as of now, RBI is keeping liquidity plentiful. There is no signal for tightening things. And rightfully so, because the headline inflation is still below the RBI's target of 4%. So, there's probably no hurry on RBI's part to tighten things up immediately.

[00:07:47]Economists there on the rupee. Now, the RBI Central Board is set to meet this Friday to decide on the transfer of its FY26 surplus to the government after last year's record payout of 2.7 lakh crore rupees. Markets are now factoring in another possible record or near record transfer this year as well. So, that's going to be an important one to watch out for. The big global story continues to be the West Asia conflict.

[00:08:11]President Trump claims the war with Iran, and I quote, will end very quickly because, in his words, Tehran is begging for a deal. Also, while threatening further military action, Trump was addressing a congressional event at the White House. The president said, and I quote, Iran is tired and badly wants to make a deal. However, he maintained that although he didn't want to attack again, he may have to. President Trump also claimed that oil prices will fall sharply once the war with Iran is over.

[00:08:37]This came just hours after US Vice President J.D. Vance said that the country is locked and loaded if Iran does not agree to a nuclear deal. Iran, meanwhile, has warned that it will expand the war beyond the region if the US chooses to resume military operations. Iran's Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, has said, and I quote, a return to war will feature many more surprises. End of quote. This after US congressional reports suggested that 42 US aircraft have either been lost or damaged in West Asia since the 28th of February when the conflict began.

[00:09:09]Meanwhile, Washington continues its attempt to exert economic pressure on Iran. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has urged G7 leaders to help US in acting against Iran's finances.

[00:09:20]Addressing a G7 meeting in Paris, Mnuchin also asked countries in the Gulf and Asia to tackle Iran's shadow banking networks.

[00:09:30]We're going to end that war very quickly. They want to make a deal so badly. They're tired of This This should have happened for 47 years. Somebody should have done something about it and it's going to happen and it's going to happen fast and you're going to see oil prices plummet. They're going to come down. There's so much oil out there.

[00:09:48]They're going to come plummeting down.

[00:09:52]We trust that your participation here today reflect reflects a readiness to stand with us in full.

[00:10:00]That will require, for example, our European partners to join the United States in taking action against Iran by designated financiers and unmasking its shell and front companies, shuttering its bank branches, and dismantling its proxies. It will require those of you from the Middle East and Asia to root out Iran's shadow banking networks and networks of ship transportation obfuscation.

[00:10:30]Well, that's Scott Bessent. Now, Prime Minister Modi has wrapped up his five-nation tour. He and Italian counterpart, Prime Minister Meloni, held bilateral talks in Rome. The two nations have agreed to elevate their ties to a special strategic partnership. They've also agreed to enhance cooperation in the areas of trade, investment, and new technology. In a joint press statement, Prime Minister Modi said when two civilizations meet, discussions are not limited to an agenda, but the depth of history. Italian Prime Minister Meloni used a popular Hindi proverb to highlight the ties between the two nations.

[00:11:02]I'm Milker shipping ports modernization logistics or blue economy per come connect.

[00:11:13]I'm near up near win-win strategy go.

[00:11:17]These three days show that they don't have to be charged up key Western Asia that on near the now go later.

[00:11:25]I'm not a lot of some perfect mirror here.

[00:11:28]But I'm not come up with first cut here.

[00:11:30]He's some of these some of these are all come up with some other than dialogue.

[00:11:39]Visit of yours is an honor for us and opens opens a new page in the relations with our countries. It's not going to be the last one in this long book that you are writing together.

[00:11:51]With resolution, doing our work in the best possible There is an Indian word which states that very well, which is a parishram.

[00:12:00]Parishram, which means hard work, constant commitment, fatigue, a word which I know is very often used in India.

[00:12:10]And it is often used in a very popular way of saying parishram is a faltaki kunji.

[00:12:21]Which means tough work is the key to success and we are used to build our relations in this way with a hard work which becomes success at the end.

[00:12:32]A new level of business interaction has been envisaged following the meeting between Prime Ministers Modi and Meloni here in Rome. And this is a plan, as Prime Minister Modi spelled out, could involve development and design in the two countries between business people from both countries, then to deliver to third countries so that the business model, as spelled out by Mr. Modi, would suggest not just India and Italy as markets for these products, but markets beyond these countries. Prime Minister Modi has said that a number of business people he spoke with have expressed great confidence and interest in this new direction. There are about 800 Italian companies working in India already and the plan is for that number to rise and for the investments of many of these countries to rise further. It was also spelled out by the Indian Prime Minister that Africa could be looked at as a market for the export of products developed jointly between Indian and Italian companies. The aim is to do this within a few years. There's a new partnership spelled out until the year 2029. The aim is to increase trade by then to about 20 billion dollars a year from the current level of 17 billion dollars.

[00:14:01]Sanjay Suri reporting there from Rome and it wasn't all talk. Prime Ministers Modi and Meloni went for dinner in Rome proceeding to take a late evening walk through the iconic Colosseum. In a post on social media, Prime Minister Meloni said that both leaders exchanged perspectives on a wide range of issues including boosting ties. Prime Minister Modi also gifted his Italian counterpart a pack of Melody Toffees in what appeared to be a playful nod to the viral hashtag Melody, an expression widely used online for both leaders. We spoke with the management of Parle Products, the company which manufactures Melody Toffee. As the visuals went viral on social media, they called the Prime Minister's gesture a big moment for the company. That's not all. Shares of Parle Industries, an unrelated company that has no connection to Melody candies or Parle Products, surged sharply hitting an upper circuit today.

[00:14:57]Prime Minister Modi brought us a gift, a very, very good toffee.

[00:15:03]Melody.

[00:15:04]>> [laughter] >> This was, I think you know, really big for us.

[00:15:12]Grateful to our Prime Minister. I think this is also a nice way of pushing Indian products and uh giving them a global stage. I'll take that point. Take Indian products and uh give them on a global stage as well. But just out of curiosity, what is the annual sales of Melody? And every time uh you know, the internet buzzes with the Melody hashtag, do you see an impact on sales because of that?

[00:15:36]Well, I mean, you know, I'm so inclined to bring in the tagline of Melody Melody Khao Kuch Khao. But >> [laughter] >> talking about the sales, yeah, it's one of the top confectionery brands in India today. Uh when you're talking about uh you know, confectionery brands available in India, it's one among the top confectionery brands. It's uh you know, uh uh we don't normally share figures because we are a private limited company. But as I shared, it's one among the top brands confectionery brands of India today.

[00:16:06]Well, that's Parle. What a big breakout moment for Parle and for Melody Toffee in specific. We're given to understand that it's sold out on many quick commerce platforms. Prime Minister Modi will chair a key Council of Ministers meeting tomorrow. The day also marks the second anniversary of the third NDA government. The meeting will be attended by cabinet ministers, ministers of state with independent charge, and other ministers of state. The functioning of various ministries, key decisions taken so far, and their outcomes are likely to be discussed as well. So, crucial meeting planned tomorrow. Russia's President Putin has wrapped up his trip to China with a banquet hosted by his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. In a joint statement, Russia and China reaffirmed their long-term strategic partnership. Both countries said their relationship is not aimed against any third country, and positioned it as a force supporting a multipolar world.

[00:16:55]Moscow and Beijing also pledged deeper political, military, and security cooperation. The two sides are also committed to expanding trade, economic ties, and boosting cooperation in key sectors. They also signed 20 agreements on trade and technology, reaching an understanding on a pipeline that would carry 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Russia's Siberia to China via Mongolia.

[00:17:19]Well, the big corporate story back home, Kumar Mangalam Birla has injected significant capital across group companies. Birla's pumped in 4,730 crore rupees in Vodafone via promoter entity and 3,080 crores in AB Capital.

[00:17:33]This was the news that came in today.

[00:17:35]The AB Group is also part [music] of a consortium that acquired IPL team Royal Challengers Bengaluru for 1.8 billion dollars. Kumar Mangalam Birla >> [music] >> pressing the pedal not just in the group capacity, but also at the level of the promoter entities. In earnings, Ola Electric's net loss [music] narrowed to 500 crore rupees on an annual basis in Q4. However, it has widened on a sequential basis. Revenue has declined over 56% to 65 crore rupees year-on-year. The company says it will continue to sustain service consistency [music] and focus on scaling volumes in FY27.

[00:18:11]Apollo Hospital has delivered an all-around beat in its fourth quarter earnings that popped up 33%. Revenue jumped more than 18% on an annual basis.

[00:18:18]Margins expanded [music] by 150 basis points to 15.3%.

[00:18:24]Aditya Birla Group company Grasim Industries posted a strong Q4 that surpassed expectations. Revenue grew 32% [music] year-on-year. Margins expanded to 4.6% for the quarter. Net loss, however, was higher than estimates despite narrowing [music] year-on-year.

[00:18:38]Grasim's paint business Birla Opus reported revenue growth of 52% year-on-year with a 17% sequential growth in volumes.

[00:18:47]Now, the public service broadcaster Prasar Bharati has told the Delhi High Court that it is not responsible to acquire media rights of the upcoming FIFA World Cup. With just 3 weeks to go for the tournament, FIFA is yet to announce a deal in India due to differences over pricing. The football body had reduced the valuation for rights for the 2026 and the 2030 World Cup from 100 million to 35 million dollars after limited market interest.

[00:19:11]So, question mark continues [music] there. Tech giant Meta has begun another major round of layoffs with roughly 8,000 employees reportedly impacted [music] globally. Workers across regions including the US, Britain, and Singapore began receiving termination emails early Wednesday morning. [music] According to Bloomberg, the cuts are largely focused on engineering and product teams as Meta continues its restructuring efforts. The company had nearly 80,000 employees globally at [music] the end of March. Well, from one tech company to another, Google has wrapped up its annual developer conference and has unveiled its biggest search overhaul in 25 years. Rachna standing by with more from Google's conference. Rachna, take us through Google's latest offerings, but more importantly, what has it done to search?

[00:19:57]Well, Google I/O 2026 had one clear message that Gemini is no longer a product. It's the operating system for everything Google does. And the developer conference showed the showed us that when it showed Gemini in search.

[00:20:12]Now, in AI agents, and there's also the first-time wearable foray here. But speaking of search, Google's head of search called it the biggest upgrade to the search box in 25 years. It will now accept natural language, images, documents, videos, and open Chrome tabs.

[00:20:28]Autocomplete is replaced by Gemini AI that shapes your question as you type, anticipating intent rather than predicting words. Now, behind all this would be information agents personalized AI working in the background around the clock reporting back without you returning to the page. But also, let's not miss out on a key detail here. Every agent answer that Google serves is one less click to an external website. The DOJ has already ruled Google illegally maintained its search monopoly and warned the same playbook cannot repeat in generative AI. Google said nothing about that on stage at the developer conference, so we will have to see how this unfolds. But, on Gemini, there's Gemini 3.5 Flash, which is live now. The company claims that it is it runs four times faster than competing frontier models. Gemini 3.5 Pro arrives next month, and Gemini Omni, the new model combining reasoning with creation, is already inside YouTube Shorts outputting AI-generated videos. The flagship product here is Gemini Spark, a 24/7 AI agent on Google Cloud executing tasks in the background even after you close your laptop. With Workspace integration built in and third-party app support via MCP coming in weeks, it sits inside Google AI Ultra, priced at $100 for a month for developers and power users. India pricing not announced yet. Now, the money behind all of this tells us how serious Google is. 180 to 190 billion dollars in capex this year, which is six times of what Google spent in 2022.

[00:22:01]Then, there's the hardware play. Google and Samsung previewed two models of smart glasses designed with Gentle Monster and Warby Parker with Gemini voice access, real-time translation, navigation, and a built-in camera, launching this fall on both Android and iOS. No price, no India date yet, but the wearable AI race that Meta started with Ray-Bans just got a serious new entry in here. So, three announcements, one through line, that Google is building a world where you don't need to go to Google. Google comes to you.

[00:22:31]Whether regulators, publishers, and users get a say in that world based on what we saw at the conference and heard at the conference, it is safe to say that Google is not waiting to find out, but we will definitely keep an eye out for it.

[00:22:44]It's been an extraordinary moment.

[00:22:47]It's been 10 years since we pivoted the company to be AI-first.

[00:22:52]We knew how profound AI would be to advancing our mission and improving people's lives at scale.

[00:22:59]This This why we are taking a differentiated full stack approach to AI innovation.

[00:23:05]Well, that's Sundar Pichai of Google. Up next, the US Justice Department bears bars audits or tax claims [music] related to Donald Trump, his family, and his businesses for past filings. That and more when we return.

[00:23:19]Catch all of CNBC-TV18's news and updates on YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, X, and Jio Hotstar. Subscribe to CNBC-TV18 access for exclusive stories.

[00:23:40]Global corporate news, over 47,000 Samsung electronic workers in South Korea may go on protest from tomorrow after wage negotiations between the company and the union broke down. Shares of the South Korean chip giant were down by 3%. The US Justice Department has barred the IRS from auditing President Donald Trump's tax returns. The protection extends not just to Trump, but to his family members, their companies, and other related companies as well. The agreement applies to anything filed before the agreement was reached. CNBC's Eamon Javers joins us now with more on this unusual deal.

[00:24:14]Eamon.

[00:24:16]The Trump administration has barred itself from pursuing any and all claims against President Trump and his family that could have been made by the IRS, including his tax returns as part of a controversial $1.8 billion dollar settlement between President Trump personally and the government that he leads. Now, the protection extends to Trump, his family members, the Trump organization, and parties including trusts, parent, sister, or related companies, affiliates, and subsidiaries.

[00:24:48]It covers any pending tax audits of Trump and others the IRS may have been conducting.

[00:24:54]And the sweeping exemption of Trump and his family from normal obligations under tax law raises the question of whether Trump has directed his government to award him a settlement on favorable terms that no other American could get.

[00:25:08]It comes as part of the settlement of a $10 billion federal lawsuit against the IRS filed in Miami by Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, and their company over the leak of Trump-related tax filings by an IRS employee.

[00:25:23]Now, as part of that settlement, the Justice Department agreed to a finance what is being called an anti-weaponization fund with $1.8 billion in taxpayer money. The fund would compensate alleged victims of law enforcement actions under the Biden administration. Yvonne Chavez, many thanks for joining us. SpaceX has picked Goldman Sachs to lead what is likely to be a record-breaking IPO. CNBC reports Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citi, and JPMorgan also appear on preliminary prospectus. SpaceX is expected to publicly disclose its this week. It was recently valued at around $1.25 trillion following its merger with XAI.

[00:26:05]And staying with space, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos made a bold prediction about the future of the US economy. Speaking to CNBC, Bezos argued that AI productivity gains may lead to a labor shortage and may lead to deflation. Take a look.

[00:26:19]What's really going to happen is we're going to have so much productivity in our economy that for example, this is this is one effect, a lot of people who have two-earner income households, one of the people is going to drop out of the workforce. That's why we're going to have a labor shortage.

[00:26:39]People because of the productivity gains, you're going to be able to afford things. We're going to have I I predict we'll actually have deflation.

[00:26:48]Well, all in on AI doesn't believe that there is a bubble either. That's Jeff Bezos exclusively to CNBC. Arsenal has become the champion of English football after 22-year wait. Fans in North London erupting in celebration after rival Manchester City was held to a draw. The club's manager, Mikel Arteta, is the second youngest coach to win the English Premier League. United Kingdom's Prime Minister Starmer, a lifelong member of the club, congratulated the [music] team as well.

[00:27:17]It would be remiss of me not to comment on one of Manchester's great heroes moving on after almost a decade.

[00:27:26]So, let me congratulate Pep Guardiola on all his success at Manchester City.

[00:27:34]And Mr. Speaker, if I could declare an interest, I'd also like to say congratulations to Arsenal Football Club on becoming the Premier League champions.

[00:27:43]Well, congratulations to Arsenal and congratulations to Dr. Soumya Swaminathan. She's been elected the fellow of the Royal Society, one of the world's highest honors in science. A former chief scientist of the World Health Organization, Dr. Swaminathan is the only second Indian woman to receive the honor. It's also a personal milestone for her as her father, Bharat Ratna M.S. Swaminathan, had been conferred with the honor as well. So, father-daughter team winning the honors.

[00:28:12]A very humbling experience to be in the very, very uh distinguished company of many other people who are fellows of the Royal Society, including, of course, my father. One thing that I do remember about my father is that he always, uh you know, did not look at science for academic pursuit or science's sake, but how to apply the new knowledge, new tools we have to actually solve societal problems. And I I was always inspired by his vision of science.

[00:28:49]Well, congratulations again to Dr. Soumya Swaminathan. And with that, it is time for us to wrap up this edition of India Business Hour. Thanks very much for watching. Do remember we continue to track the US market action, all the global developments, what President Trump is tweeting or saying, all of that coming up for you right here on CNBC TV18. [music] For now, from all of us here on India Business Hour, thanks very much for watching.