Inflation dynamics involve multiple interconnected factors including headline rates (which can be temporarily lowered by volatile items like fuel prices) and core inflation (which reflects persistent underlying pressures from wages, rent, and consumer demand). Central banks like the BSP must balance monetary policy by raising interest rates to control inflation while avoiding excessive economic sacrifice, with the real policy rate (nominal rate minus inflation) serving as a key indicator for determining appropriate rate levels.
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Business 360 with Apa Ongpin | June 5, 2026Added:
Good afternoon. Welcome to Business 360, your complete view of the stories driving business, markets, and the economy. I'm Apain and this is the billionaire news channel.
Inflation slows down to 6.8% in May, coming in below the central bank's forecast. HSBC senior AAN economist Aris Nakana joins us from Hong Kong.
Exclusive on Billionario, the United States revokes the visas of former House Speaker Martin.
And the energy department is bracing to increase the country's electric vehicle charging points to 3,000 this year.
Inflation drops to 6.8% in May, lower than expected, but as Chess Sula tells us, there are still some price pressures.
>> The country's headline inflation rate hit 6.8% for May 2026. That's lower than the 7.2% 2% recorded in April. The Philippine Statistics Authority says the slower inflation was mainly driven by softer price increases in transport, food, and housing and utilities compared to April. The final figures are also well below the initial projections of the Bank of Central. The BSP earlier estimated the May 2026 headline inflation would settle between 7.1% to 7.9%.
Some economists also forecasted a 7 to 8% inflation rate. In transport, motorists seemingly began to feel some relief at the pump following a series of rollbacks in fuel prices. Oil prices previously spiked in March after tensions intensified amid the Middle East conflict. Recent discussions of peace talks between US and Iran officials have led to softer prices in the global markets. PSA national statistician and under secretary claire Dennis Mapa however notes that prices of petroleum products are still highly volatile pump prices but the uh overall the average for May is lower than April >> but even with the headline inflation rate slowing down experts warn against the 4.1% core inflation which was higher than the 3.9% in April. Economist Jonathan Rebella says the higher core inflation signifies underlying pressures are starting to stabilize. He adds underlying price pressures refer to the more persistent drivers of inflation such as wages, rent, tuition, and stronger consumer demand. He says these factors show whether inflation is only temporary, such as when fuel prices move up and down, or if higher prices become more constant, making the burden last longer for households. Meanwhile, even as prices for food items have reportedly eased, MAPA notes that rise inflation remains high with a 15.6% inflation rate, rice remains one of the biggest weights in consumer's basket according to the national statistician. Looking ahead, MAPA also warned against the risks of the typhoon season and the arrival of the super El Nino to the prices of goods and services. Risk moving forward would really be uh the external the impact of external factors fuel and uh energy uh commodities and uh >> mappa adds high inflation continues to erode the purchasing power of the peso.
He reports that one pesa today is worth only about 73 centavos compared to its value in 2018. This means that 1,00 pesos today can only buy about 736 pesos worth of goods compared to 2018. For business 360 chess, billionar news channel.
Malaganyang has welcomed the lower inflation rate but says it's staying alert to risks like rising oil prices and the impact of El Nino.
At this point, let's bring in HSBC senior AAN economist Aris Dana joining us live from Hong Kong. Aris, hello from Manila.
>> Happy Friday. Hello. Hello.
>> Yeah. So, Aris sort of good news.
Inflation slowed to 68 6.8% 8% in May, less than the uh BSP was worried about.
On the surface, that that sounds like good news from where you sit. Is it really good news?
>> Well, so first of all, any drop in prices when inflation is above 4% is a very welcome phenomenon, but we shouldn't be complacent. Um there there are two points that I want to raise.
One, as mentioned a while ago in the headline, core inflation still increased from 3.9 3.9% to 4.1% breaching the BSP target. What does that mean? That means the spillover effects of the initial energy shock that we saw in April and in May is making its way creeping its way to more you nonvolatile items. Inflation expectations may still be anchored.
Inflationary pressures are still up. So when core inflation is still high, it still requires some degree of monetary action. Two, the second point I want to point out is that food inflation although it did ease um in the month of May, there is still a risk of a surge in food prices mainly because the market or at least the the grocery items that we see haven't really priced in the fact that fertilizer prices have already doubled since the turmoil of the Middle East began.
Okay. So, actually I I think you're right. Um uh core core inflation um is really still um uh rising. Uh a big inflation that uh a big reason that inflation east was transport uh prices.
No. which um uh which is it a sign that prices are really cooling or did lower fuel and transport cost simply pull the headline number down? So it's simply all transport transport costs and I want to point out that you know food inflation particularly u those that we we grow in in food that we particularly grow and raise um in the Philippines food prices have also gone down in line with the reduction in transport prices. U of course diesel prices have dropped um from from when I was in the Philippines last week it was below 19 80 80 80 pesos a liter which is a good deal because it brings down the cost of transportation of putting food on our tables on grocery on grocery shelves etc etc but the thing is rice prices rice prices or particularly rice inflation is still accelerating. Um there are two things that we need to observe here. Apart from the um the the acceleration, we also need to observe the fact that global rice prices is actually very low. While rice prices in the Philippines continue to move up two or three year uh two to three weeks ago, um a kilogram of rice was at 47 pesos per kilogram in in Metro Manila. That's actually the highest since 2013.
uh so you know there's something there's something that is happening you have core CPI it goes to show that there is momentum when it comes to inflation in the inner parts of inflation and at the same time rice which is very important for the Filipino household around a tenth of our budgets um we use 10 of our budgets in spending rise in buying rice um when that when rice prices increase again the inflation expectations risks being the anchored >> yeah well local uh locally produced rice no is very sensitive to fuel and ura the fertilizer which there's also a shortage of because it all comes from that uh middle east region no so um rice rose 15.6% 6% and corn jumped to 25.5%.
Corn is of course uh a major component of animal uh feed. No. So therefore meat prices are going to go up. Um these are the staples for uh Filipino households.
Um is there any hope of uh reversing this uh direction?
Uh well for one core inflation is already something that the BSP is is looking into. It has it has shifted to a what you call a hawkish stance ready to raise interest rates to curb demand to at least stem these spillover effects.
Now when it comes to corn and rice um there has been a shift of gears when it comes to rice policy. Um you had a few months ago, particularly December of 2025, November of 2025, when the administration decided to put a ban on rice imports. Um at during that time, there was an over supply of rice. Um but uh when it was decided that it was going to be extended that around January or February, supply started to to tighten and food rice prices went up. There there are currently discussions of of cutting or reducing the rice tariffs on on tariffs on rice and allowing more imports to arrive to the economy to at least boost supply. If supply does get boosted, we can expect a huge reduction of rice prices. And I just want to point out every 10% reduction of rice prices leads to a 1 percentage point reduction in overall inflation. So if we are able to bring rice prices down, it will be an effective tool not just to bring inflation down but to bring relief to everyday Filipino consumers.
>> Yeah. But then the rice farmers uh the local uh rice farmers are going to really suffer because you know in other words they're not going to get uh they're going to have to sell their rice below cost.
>> Now there are two points that we need to consider. one, yes, there are 8 million farmers that uh will receive more competition abroad and that is the reason why in 2019 we were able to pass what you call RSF, the rice competitive enhancement fund that every time we are able we import rice, we collect a small portion of that tax that we earmark to the competitiveness of the farmers. It is what you call the um it's it's a good compromise in a way that consumers are able to access you lower rice prices and at the same time reinvest what we earn to make you know the the the out the the livelihood of farmers a lot more efficient and you know a lot you know to improve better on. Next point that I want to point out is that there are 120 million consumers in the Philippines.
any reduction in the in in rise prices or in any price in particular will improve the purchasing powers of Filipinos. Just to point out, wages in the Philippines actually grew 7% in 2025. And when rice prices went down in 2025 because rice tariffs were lowered, inflation was just 2%. And that is the reason why in 2025, the purchasing power of Filipinos grew by 5%. So there is this big opportunity to have this compromise in improving the livelihood of farmers and at the same time um protect the purchasing power of everyday Filipinos.
>> Okay, let's talk let's talk about the BSP. Let's turn to the BSP. Um the uh BSP raised rates in April and uh based on this May inflation print, I guess that move is starting to work. No. Uh or is it still too early to tell? And my second question is how much fiscal space does the B BSP uh have left? I mean you know uh how how high can they raise rates before you know growth shrinks to zero?
So I I think well I think raising rates for growth to return to zero is something that you know is off the table. um you know raising rates too tight at this at the expense of zero growth will be a very big uh very big trade-off. So how much room does the BSB have? We do expect the BSB to raise rates to 6%. Mainly because if you have it's it's it's the number called the real policy rate. Whenever inflation is high to tame inflation down you have to real rate you have to raise the interest rates higher than inflation because if inflation is higher than interest rates you have an incentive to just you borrow money borrow borrow borrow um and credit you know as a percent of the economy will just gradually increase. That is the reason why you need to raise interest rates. So with in 2027 we do expect inflation to be at around 4.4%.
4%. The BSP's view is that is um around 4.3%.
Um I think a sustainable real policy rate is what is 1.5%. So that means you need to raise interest rates to as high as 6%. So all the math we don't think we need to raise rates up until 10%. Um similar to what you know to what we see in other economies of the globe. I think 6% will suffice and at the same time it won't be so detrimental to the Philippine economy.
>> Yeah. Well, it looks like uh the BSP is at least being predictable about uh about this, right? Which is what we want. We want a predictable monetary authority. Um uh so if the BSP uh does move again, let's say there's another rate hike in June, what do you think are the chances? And um are we expecting 25 basis points or more?
>> We take a we take the view that they will uh the BSP will raise rates by a jumbo 50 basis points. Okay.
>> Even when inflation surprised to the downside today because one we need to consider the fact that yes inflation may have surprised to the downside today but it surprised to the upside by a lot more the month prior in the month of April.
So on average, inflation is still higher than what anyone initially expected.
Second, we need to create buffer. You need to raise interest rates to lend support to the peso. Why is that important? When inflation is high, it's mainly because when the peso is weak, the cost of imports increases. So the c the so our rice becomes more expensive, our gasoline becomes more expensive. So at a time when inflation is high, it's very important to have a hawkish stance.
And I do think 50 basis points is a safer choice because what if let's say we hike by 25 basis points and inflation in the US suddenly increases requiring the Fed to raise interest rates. that would be a headwind to the peso can risk weakening the peso a lot more and of course is a risk to what you call FX induced inflation. So our take um the safer choice and I think the the economy has room to absorb that cost is to raise by 50 basis points.
>> Okay be before the fuel crisis the uh inflation target was 2 to 4% right annualized. Well uh 6.8% 8% is not a bad result for this month, but uh is 2 to 4% uh still realistic within reach this year or should we really um reassess and and make a new target?
>> I think um I think bringing bringing inflation down to 4% as early as 2026 is a tall order. Yeah, >> even the BSP forecasts um predict that inflation will average at around 6.3 6.5%.
Um bringing it down to between 2 to 4% will require um a lot of sacrifice particularly raising rates aggressively.
So we don't want that to happen. We don't want to take so much growth away just to bring inflation down aggressively. There is a delicate balance that needs to be achieved. Yeah, our ASEAN neighbors seem to have been uh uh doing uh similar strategies but also gradually like like the BSP. Uh some economies even have uh still uh 2% inflation despite the fuel crisis. Um >> uh >> how do you think >> if I if I may add I think that's the re that's that's in terms of at least the differences in policy. So we do have let's say Indonesia and Malaysia who are net exporters of energy. So they did see what you call windfall revenue >> and with their windfall revenue exporting coal exporting natural gas they were able to use that extra revenue to subsidize gasoline and keep prices down.
>> Mhm. In contrast, you have Thailand where it borrowed 400 billion BAT total, which is around 2% of GDP to be able to keep oil prices at bay. Uh we also had Vietnam who borrowed money. For the Philippines, our fiscal space isn't as abundant as compared to our ASEAN neighbors. Yes. And that is the reason why we had a difficult time or at least you know it it we couldn't afford as big of a subsidy as compared to let's say Malaysia and Indonesia. So the policy of the government today is to at least distribute the cost of the energy shock you know as much as possible to government to households to businesses to the private sector but at the same time provide relief through targeted measures to at least support the most vulnerable in the economy.
So um do we feel overall satisfied uh with how the BSP has handled inflation so far? And um what are you expecting uh at HSBC for June and for fullear inflation?
>> Uh for fullear inflation we expect 6.6% in in 2026 and around 4.4% in 2027.
Again there will be a gradual reduction in inflation in compare in comp in lie of a of an aggressive rate hike cycle just to tame inflation down. Again you have to balance growth and inflation.
But in an assessment I think the BSP has guided markets very well. They were very real realistic. They were the very first central bank in Southeast Asia to basically raise inflation forecasts um put down growth forecasts and shift gears to shift gears in terms of you know per delivering a hawkish tone to make sure the peso is well supported and does not you know induce any further inflation.
>> Okay. Well, thank you for your insights, HSBC senior asan economist Aris Dakana.
I learned a lot today and I think our viewers did too.
>> Thank you and happy Friday.
>> Okay, we're taking a break. Up next, a look at the stock market's performance this week. And you're watching Business 360.
Heat. Heat.
Local shares ended the week higher after lower than inspect. expected inflation in May.
The Philippine Stock Exchange in index settled again at the 5,900 level. Most sectors ended in the green. The PSI moved in an upward trajectory this week.
It recovered after last week's slide ahead of the MSCI rebalancing that took place last Monday. The PSI only declined yesterday as investors expected higher inflation.
The Tan Kakyong family's investment firm is buying more Jollibee shares even as the stock stays under pressure.
Hyperdamic Corporation bought 59.3 million pesos worth of Jollibee shares, nudging its stake to 43.47%.
The buy came during a rough stretch for Jollibee. The stock is down about 26% this year and hit a low of 126.90 pesos in May.
A major renewable energy deal is supercharging ASEN Corporation's expansion.
An AS subsidiary has locked in a 2.9 billion peso financing facility from the Bank of the Philippine Islands, bankrolling a solar and storage project in Northern Philippines. Palawi Solar 1 is the baler. uh Jigsaw 2, the collateral guaranter or granter and uh BPI asset management and trust is the trustee. The money goes toward building the project and refinancing existing costs.
Metropacific Water is taking over water operations in San Jose del Monte Bulakan for now replacing Villarled Prime Water.
The city government tapped the Meek unit as interim operator of its water district, starting with a two-month consultancy deal. During that window, Metrop Pacific Water will work to stabilize supply and assess what the system needs from aging pipelines to pumping stations. The city is aiming to restore reliable water to every household within a year.
Foreign investors are pulling less cash out of the Philippines. The Bankco Central Filipina says April outflows slowed to $1.6 billion dollars down from March. Still, it marks a reversal from last year when money was flowing in.
So-called hot money pulled out mainly from bonds and stocks spooked by inflation and a weaker peso.
Wall Street closed next with a tech sell-off, keeping stocks subdued. The blue chip Dow Jones surged to a record close thanks to healthc care and financial stocks as well as hopes of a US Iran ceasefire. But the NASDAQ stall dragged down by a slump in chip stocks.
The culprit AI chip maker Broadcom whose weak revenue forecast spooked investors.
The chip selloff bled into Asia overnight. South Korea's cost speed plunged to its worst in months. Analysts say AI demand hasn't disappeared.
Expectations just got a little high. So, even good numbers aren't enough anymore.
>> There's been a an unmitigated rise um since beginning of April. And I think the markets are taking a breather. You know, you can't keep hitting record highs every single day. So, we had a little bit of a breather a few days ago, and today there's a little bit nervousness around the ceasefire. Um and then, you know, there's that's been a yo-yo. it's good news and then bad news.
And so I think there's a little bit of taking the gains happening and rotating into some of the names that have been neglected um especially in retail and banking.
>> The United States and Iran could reportedly hold their next round of talks today. Sources told Reuters the two sides are expecting to reach a preliminary agreement before negotiators work on a final deal. if they can reach a peace agreement. US President Donald Trump said he could meet with Iran's Supreme Leader >> want to meet with the new Ayatoll, the new Supreme Leader.
>> I don't want to meet, but if if I did meet, I'd be honored to meet him. I I'd like to see if we make a deal, >> but if we make a deal, it's possible that I would meet him. I'd be okay with it.
>> But Trump reiterated that the US will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. He added that Washington had a plan to send troops to remove enriched uranium from Iranian nuclear sites, but ultimately decided against it due to the risks.
Still ahead, two billionaire exclusives.
The US cancels the visas of former House Speaker Martin Raldes while burglars snuck in one of Manila's richest exclusive villages twice in two weeks.
Those stories coming up.
Heat. Heat.
Welcome back to Business 360. I'm Apa Pin. Exclusive to Binario, the United States has cancelled the visas of former House Speaker Martin Raldes. That's according to a top government officials speaking on the condition of anonymity.
He told BNC that the diplomatic and tourist visas of Roaldes were revoked weeks ago. No reason given. The visas were valid until until September 2027, but under US rules. They can be revoked any time over fraud or criminal concerns. Romas is currently facing criminal investigation over his alleged involvement in the flood control scandal. He denies the allegations and has not been charged in court.
A probe is being sought into how the Kayatano block was able to conduct an unsanctioned hearing inside the Senate, bypassing the blue ribbon committee, now led by Irwin Tulfo. Hannah Ti reports.
>> Newly elected Senate Blue Ribbon Committee Chair Irwin Tulfo wants to probe how the Kayatano block hearing pushed through. Abdulfu said he may summon officials of the office of the surgeent-at-arms or senate OSA to explain how the group gained access and conducted its proceedings. Before the hearing, senators Pia Kayatano and Robin Padilia were seen assisting the entry of the 18 eggs inside the Senate premises making their way to the plenary. No official blue ribbon committee secretariat was present, but the Kitano block said the proceedings were recorded by their own staff. The hearing pushed through even as the reconstituted blue ribbon committee under Tulfo maintained that it is the legitimate panel authorized to hold investigations.
During the proceedings, the 18 self-proclaimed former Marines repeated allegations against several public figures including human rights advocate and Catholic priest father.
Sir, Jolie, a member of the 18 alleged ex-Marine said he recognized Father Flavy's face as it was a time that the extrajudicial killings were reported.
The priest is a known human rights advocate during the EJ case. He mentioned delivering cash in an envelope at an address he referred to as 33 Clemente on Mindanao Avenue, but the Arnold Jansen Khalinga Foundation and Program Pagilum categorically denied the claims, saying there's no evidence to support the alleged money deliveries and that the locations described by the witnesses do not match any known society of the Divine Word or SBD church or ministry in Quzon City. The groups called the accusations false, malicious, and defamatory, and urged accountability for those who they said use unsupported testimony to damage the reputation of others. On the part of Tulfo, the 18X Marines will be summoned in the next Blue Ribbon probe on Monday, June 8th.
The senator said they may be held liable if they fail to appear before the committee as they're also compelled to submit sworn affidavit for the accusations to be discussed in the proper forum. Hana, Billionario News Channel.
>> First on Billionario, burglaries in exclusive Desmarinas Village have put wealthy residents on edge. The breakins happened in less than two weeks, May 26 and June 4. Village authorities have launched a probe, combing through CCTV footage and hunting for a suspect. One victim, an old rich billionaire, is reportedly furious, blaming village security for letting a a thief slip past.
We'll be right back after these uh messages.
Welcome back to Business 360. I'm Apain.
Electric vehicles are having their moment, but there's a catch. Are there enough places to charge them? The government wants to nearly double the country's charging station this week.
Uh, sorry, this year. Uh, G. Baroga tells us more.
For many Filipinos interested in electric vehicles, range anxiety remains a concern and a big part of that comes down to the limited number of charging stations available across the country.
The Department of Energy acknowledges that permitting bottlenecks have slowed the roll out of new charging facilities, but officials say they are now working to streamline the process and accelerate deployment. Under the Electric Vehicle Industry Development Act, the country is aiming to have more than 7,000 charging stations nationwide by 2028 and over 20,000 by 2040.
>> It's about 1,600 charging points at the end of April this year. Uh we're expecting to have additional maybe double that. That's a target. That's why we're pushing for the streamlining so that we can end the year um closer to 3,000.
>> That push comes as electrified vehicles take up a bigger share of the spotlight at this year's Philippine International Motor Show. More than half of the over 150 vehicles on display feature some form of electrification. From hybrids to fully electric models. Our message is always choose uh an HEV if you're not yet ready to do the plug-in hybrid or battery electric. If you go to the pimps to this uh this edition, you're going to be able to see a lot of options. Um this is part of our goal to transition the transportation sector towards uh more fuel efficient. Billionario backed brands bike, Cherry, Photon, and Jour of Romel City, Kia of the Zobel, the Ayala family and Toyota of the TE's are present to showcase their latest models to the public. For Campy chairman Jose Alvarez, the industry is clearly entering a new phase.
>> The need for mobility is uh not changing. It's every year it's increasing. So models that are new will have a chance to be looked at and uh let's see what's happen for the at the end of this year. Let's see it will be the transition from IC to hybrid and full electric coming.
>> Campy president Jingensa says the auto group has yet to set a new vehicle sales target for the year after earlier withdrawing its 500,000 unit outlook in May. However, he says events like BIMS show how the industry is evolving, bringing together performance, sustainability, and technological advancement in one show. For BNC Mobility, G Baroga >> budget carrier Cebu Pacific is bringing back its piece of sale for Independence Day. The promo runs June 5 to 12, covering both domestic and international destinations. One-way base fairs start at just 1 peso for travel between July 1 and October 18.
President Marcos has ordered the energy department to stabilize power supply across Lon and the Visayas. The palace says uh they met with energy officials this week to uh review supply levels and grid conditions. The energy regulatory commission is also told to review the National Grid Corporation's performance.
The push comes after recent power alerts and a full blackout in Palawan. Still, officials say fuel supply is stable with about 46 days of reserves.
A national push to get Filipinos eating local pork instead of imports takes center stage at this year's Hogfest.
Pierre Pastor takes us there.
Promote local Pinoy pork is the main goal of the Hogfest. Inspired by the success of the previous hug festivals, the 2026 Hogfest aims to elevate pork beyond the plate. It highlights sustainability, local livelihood, education, cultural identity, food sovereignity, and food security. This is an initiative to support agriculture and hog racers spearheaded by the National Federation of Hog Farmers. At this time when pork importation is rampant and the minimum access volume or MAV continue to challenge the local hog industry, the festival stands as a platform of advocacy. This also reminds Filipinos that every choice to support the local pork industry impacts Filipino farmers, backyard racers, workers, and rural communities whose livelihood depends on agriculture. 70% of hog racers in the Philippines do backyard farming and only 30% come from big farms. This means that there is a loud call to support the local pork industry that has supported the Philippine economy for decades. This event is strongly supported by famous Filipino chefs who campaign for the use of local pork instead of the imported ones. The Hogfest culminating event hosted by the Kesson City government is the pork laban which will happen on Independence Day June 12. This will feature culinary experts showcasing their talents in preparing pork dishes.
Pierre Pastor, billionaire news channel.
>> Before we go, uh Forbes just released its list of America's richest self-made women. At the top, not a famous face, but Diane Hendris, a 79year-old American businesswoman who built a fortune selling roofing and building materials.
Her net worth is now around $21.7 billion.
Entertainment stars like Oprah Winfrey, Taylor Swift, Kim Kardashian, Beyonce, and Rihanna also made the list. Forb says today's biggest self-made fortunes are being built in entertainment, technology, and consumer brands.
And that's Business 360. We'll keep tracking the moves that matter across markets, policy, and the economy. I'm Apa Oin. Thank you for joining us. Keep it here on BNC, the billionaire news channel.
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