The Big Ten's Most Likely Conference Realignments

Added: 2026-06-07

[00:00:00]These are the Big 10's most likely conference realignments. By now, you know what we're doing here and you know how this works. We're going to go from least likely to most likely teams that will be ending up in the Big 10 over the next 5 to 10 years and we'll start at number 10 with Notre Dame. Basically, Notre Dame is on this list because people will put it in the comments if they're not in there, but I find it really hard to believe that Notre Dame will ever end up in the Big 10 as currently constructed. I think there is obviously some path in which that happens. They're right smack-dab in the middle of Big 10 country and they're one of the most popular college football programs across the country, one of the most successful college football programs across the country. But, I think that we're more likely to get to a Super League in which Notre Dame is involved in the Big 10 portion of that Super League than we are to actually see Notre Dame in the Big 10 because more than likely they will just stay independent in college football. And if they do make any move, it's going to be to the ACC in college football, but I don't see really anything happening besides them staying independent. So, that's why they're all the way down at number 10 and probably shouldn't even be on the list. Number nine is Houston and it's kind of interesting for Houston to be this low on the list and also this high on the list because really, if you look at them, the only things that are keeping them from being in the Big 10 or being like a higher end candidate for the Big 10 at least is their success in college football, which they're getting there, and the fact that they're not in AAU university, but they're an R1 research university. They're one of the biggest schools in the country that's playing FBS football. They have a good-sized stadium. They're one of the best college basketball programs in the country. They're in a massive city. Like all of these things would say Houston should be high up on the list for the Big 10, but there's a few things that keep them away and a lot of it is just kind of the fact they haven't been a power conference school for the last like 30 years since they left the Southwest Conference or I should say since the Southwest Conference collapsed. So, maybe just a couple more seasons in the Big 12 that show some success, maybe a college football playoff birth, maybe a national championship in basketball, and maybe that AAU status, and we see a Houston being one of the absolute first choices for the Big 10 because we know the Big 10 wants to get into Texas, and what's more Texas than being right in the middle of Houston. Eight is Texas Tech, and honestly, Houston should be higher on this list, but the level of investment from Texas Tech right now puts them on basically every single conference realignment list because it's obvious what their intentions are. It's to pay their way into being one of the top athletic universities in the country, and honestly, they're basically doing that right now. They're in the college women's college world series currently, which I know is not necessarily the biggest thing, but softball is by far the second biggest women's college sport.

[00:02:44]They were probably going to on their way to being a top four seed, maybe not top four overall, but like one through four seed in March Madness if it wasn't for Toppin's injury.

[00:02:55]Uh they were a first round bye team in this year's college football playoff.

[00:02:59]Like they're everything as far as athletics is working in their favor with the money that they're putting in. But, they're not a great athletic school.

[00:03:08]They're in a small town in Texas.

[00:03:10]They're not really close to anything.

[00:03:12]They don't really give you the foothold in Texas that you would want like like Houston would. Houston puts you right in the middle of the recruiting hotbeds.

[00:03:18]Not a lot of great players are coming out of Lubbock or coming out of West Texas. So, there's some hurdles that Texas Tech is going to have to jump over, but their spending is at such a high level and is yielding such great results for them that they're going to gain interest, and with those results have come viewership, which is the other great hurdle that they're going to have to leap over, and we saw just last season they spent their way into the top 30 in viewership, and I think that's only going to go up as the success continues. Seven is Utah. We're going to continue our Big 12 kick here, and Utah again is a good size university, high-end academic university, and Utah has been one of the best college football programs in the country.

[00:03:59]They've had a really good college basketball program. And location-wise, I think there is a want from the Big Ten to try to connect the gaps a little bit between, you know, the West Coast teams to at least Nebraska a little bit. They want to fill out those gaps just a little bit more if they are going to expand. And Utah, geographically, is in a good spot. Now, I don't necessarily think that they are really that high on the list. I think that Houston and Texas Tech could work their way up this list. I think that Utah's about as high as they would go, and there would have to be some problems that would push Utah into the Big Ten, but they're at least worth talking about because of everything that's going on there. And the other part of it is that they've already accepted private equity in. And I think that the Big Ten is very, very interested in that. Actually, I know the Big Ten is very, very interested in private equity. So, I think that there's a good test case going on in Utah right now, and that might add a little bit more interest from the Big Ten, but ultimately, I don't see them ending up there. But you have to talk about them because they kind of check all the boxes outside of like actually making it happen. At six, we have Colorado. And these are still schools that I don't see making it into the Big Ten, but they're worth talking about. Colorado obviously has the same geographic advantages of Utah, probably even more geographic advantages because they are stationed in Boulder. They get you that Denver market, which is one of the top available markets still left out there that nobody is touching in the two power conferences. So, that is an interesting part of it, but I honestly think that the you know, Deion mania of the first two seasons when they were a top five viewership school for the first two seasons that Deion was there, uh has worn off quite a bit. Colorado was falling back into like the 25-30 range in this last season. And we're seeing that like a lack of success is going to hurt any kind of like momentum that you have going. And I think that, you know, there's been really bad PR this off season for Colorado's football. And if we're just talking football, you know, there has been really bad PR. Colorado has a lot of other things going for it.

[00:05:55]Like, it is a good school. It It does have a pretty good athletic department across the board. Like, not great, but it can hold its own.

[00:06:03]Um you know it can get the funding.

[00:06:05]Like, there's a lot of things that Colorado has going for it.

[00:06:08]But, they're kind of like e The only thing that would really draw them in is those top top-level numbers.

[00:06:14]And since they're not able to keep that up, I don't think that they move up any higher unless somehow Colorado comes out with 10 wins or 11 wins again this next season is fighting for a Big 12 championship and they're back in the college football playoff race or they're in the college football playoff race for the first time, then maybe we're talking about Colorado again as one of the hottest schools in conference realignment talk. But, right now I think they're about as high as they can go reasonably in the Big 10 conference realignment talk. Five is Cal and this one's interesting. I think that there is a real path in which Cal ends up in the Big 10.

[00:06:50]First part of it is the ACC, right? We're all expecting a lot of the top teams from the ACC to leave. And when that happens, Cal and Stanford are still going to be on a 75% deal at most with the ACC up until like 2036 and then they would be on a full deal. Maybe they're on the full deal for the last year of this media deal and then they would be in on the next one.

[00:07:13]But, I don't know that if you're waiting if you're waiting that long that you want to wait for like a reduced share or uh even you know, a full share but reduced money and having to travel all across the country to go along with that. The Big 10 has many former Pac-10 foes for Cal and Cal fits the Big 10.

[00:07:32]Like, Stanford fits the ACC to a T. Cal fits the ACC, but it fits the Big 10 honestly better. It is a much larger university than Stanford. It's a public university. They have success kind of across the board. Maybe not recent success, but they have had success across the board with their athletic department. I think that Tasha Lapointe is a pretty crazy hire. I think that it's going to be really, really good. I think that he will know how to run a program. Maybe not the best X's and O's dude, but he knows how to recruit and will know how to run a program.

[00:08:01]And I think that they're on their way up. And obviously they have geographic advantages as well being in Northern California. I mean, even if you think like Oregon and USC are much closer together than Oregon and Rutgers, but Eugene to LA is not a short flight. Seattle to LA is not a short flight. So Cal also bridges the gaps a little bit on the East Coast. Now, they would have their own geographic challenges being in the Big Ten as well, but honestly I see a path in which Cal ends up in the Big Ten if they miss out on some of their big fish. If things happen in the ACC where a lot of schools end up going to the SEC or just it doesn't really work out between them.

[00:08:36]Maybe Stanford goes independent. I see a path for Cal to up end up in the Big Ten that's maybe not more than 50/50, but it's probably more than 20 25% that they could find their way to the Big Ten in the next 10 years. Four, we go to Miami.

[00:08:48]And this is where we get to like real possibilities that they would enter the Big Ten. It's interesting with Miami because I've always kind of felt like they're the the big school, the top end school in the ACC that would be most likely to stay because they fit the ACC like to a T. They are an absolute ACC school.

[00:09:08]But like they might be forced into a conference where they don't fit the best culturally. Now, that's going around.

[00:09:15]Like there's a lot of schools that are kind of not the absolute best cultural fits, but like money is going to push them there. And I think that's what ends up with Miami, but it's interesting to see whether they would end up in the SEC or the Big Ten cuz both sides like have weird things. Like the Big Ten doesn't have a whole lot of small private universities. They tend to be or the SEC doesn't have Well, either one doesn't have a lot of small private universities. The SEC said tends be like bigger universities, public universities in smaller southern towns, where the Big Ten is like huge universities that have a lot of people attending them, that have high-end academics. And Miami like kind of fits in both of those, but it kind it really doesn't fit that well in either one of them. So, while it makes sense from a money and viewership and college football and college basketball success-wise for them to leave the ACC to go to one of those conferences, I still find it hard It's not hard to believe, but it's it's it's hard to like find the perfect fit for Miami if they do leave the ACC. That's why I generally keep them lower than like the other teams in the ACC that we're talking about like trying to fight their way out of the conference. Three is Florida State. And a lot of people I think would have Florida State at number one. Maybe they deserve to be at number one, but Florida State to me, I don't know, it just feels like such a good fit for the ACC. I know that like they could have gone there in the '90s and and they wanted to take the easy path or whatever it is, but it's not 1990 anymore. It's 2026, probably 2030 by the time Florida State can work up the money to leave the ACC.

[00:10:42]And I think that it makes sense for them to go in the Big Ten for a couple reasons, but honestly, like just the rivalries that they have in the ACC, just the fact that they are a Florida Panhandle university, it just seems like they fit so well in the ACC. They do such great numbers when they play ACC teams. They're not going to have to like ingratiate themselves.

[00:11:01]These fans already know each other. Like they this it's already built up. Like I I just really end up see Florida State ending up in the ACC, but of course, like if they don't end up in the ACC, they're going to end up in the Big Ten cuz both conferences are going to want them and they want the hell out of the ACC.

[00:11:17]So, maybe they should be higher up on this list, but I have them at three because I just feel like if they don't end up in the ACC, like or the ACC, like what happened? It just seems like the perfect move for them, especially going into the 2030s. Two, we have North Carolina. I think that you know what one and two on this list are going to be. North Carolina, Virginia, you could swap them one, two, which way you want to go. It's really up to you.

[00:11:40]That is again, we've talked about this, we've talked about it before, we'll talk about it again. The battleground of conference realignment in the 2030s is in Virginia and North Carolina. The two flagship universities of those states, Virginia and North Carolina, will be the focal point of both of the major conferences conference realignment focuses because there is so much to like about these schools from a conference perspective. Everybody in my comments, what this more so happens on Tik Tok, but really any kind of video that you do about these, it's like Virginia sucks, North Carolina sucks. Yeah.

[00:12:18]But I mean, that is not really the most important thing when it looks at conference realignment. I mean, UCLA was one of the first schools to get an invite to a major conference in the last wave of conference realignment. UCLA has bad sports all the way around, even basketball has been pretty bad under Mick Cronin. They just find a way to make good runs in March Madness, but other than that, most of college basketball for UCLA is just him bitching. And their football has been non-existent for like 50 years at this point. Going back to Jim Mora was even the last time that they were somewhat relevant. So, it doesn't matter how good your football team is. It doesn't matter how good your basketball team is. That's not what they're deciding. Now, it helps, for sure it helps, but if that was the reason that they were picking teams, Boise State would have been in the Big 10 10 years ago. Boise State is one of the most successful football programs, and they couldn't buy their way into the Big to the Pac-10. They couldn't buy their way into the Big 12. They had to back door it in when the Pac-12 had to rebuild itself. So, it's not the that's not what the conferences are looking for. Both of these conferences are high-end academic universities. They have robust athletic departments.

[00:13:27]Whether they're great in individual sports is not necessarily a thing. They have well-funded robust athletic departments that can, you know, sustain different sports across the university. And especially in the Big Ten's case, they can come in and contribute to the research alliance they have in the Big Ten. And to go along with all of that, there are rich fans. There are rich alumni. There is money to be made with these two schools. There is money to be made getting on the local cable networks in Virginia and North Carolina, and especially in the location of these two uh universities. Like, Virginia is like the closest university to a DC kind of FBS power, and Chapel Hill, like getting in the triangle in North Carolina, these are places that conferences want to be. Now, personally, I think that you should chase after establish fan bases in college football, because you're not really building up fan bases that much. These are like family passed-down fanships. But, there are still good fan bases in North Carolina and Virginia. And if those schools are more successful, they will gain more fans. Maybe it's not going to be overnight like an NFL team, but they will gain more fans, and they will gain maybe not even just fans, but people that want to watch them play. So, there is a lot to like for these two conferences. Specifically, we're talking about the Big Ten, about these two schools. There is a lot to like about these two states. Now, Virginia Tech's not on here, NC State's not on here, Duke's not on here, cuz I don't see them as super likely second options for the Big Ten. Although, there is probably a path. You probably could take Notre Dame off of there, and probably put Duke in.

[00:15:10]But, I again, I don't see Duke as like this automatic fit for the Big Ten. I don't see Virginia Tech as this automatic fit for the Big Ten. NC State seems like the most likely, but more than likely, if they do go to one of these conferences, it's because they're roped in with North Carolina. And I'm not trying to make, you know, like make a bet on what the North Carolina politicians are going to do in 2032 when they try to leave the conference and they try to force NC State to go with them. Like, that's a a whole lot of projecting that I'm not in the business of doing. But I do think that both of these schools will be extremely hot commodities and it'll be kind of the linchpin. When those two schools go, then we'll pull the gum out of the dam and everything will rush out things will get set. But those are the first two moves that will start the next wave of conference realignment. But ultimately, the Big Ten is tricky to predict because with a lot of these other conferences that we do these videos about, they're on the back foot. They're trying to survive. They're trying to improve their status in college sports as the in the most case has dwindled in the past couple of seasons with conference realignment. But the Big Ten is on the forefront of that. They're the ones making the changes. So, are they going to want to expand past 18 teams that they're currently at? Or are they going to get this new media deal really at the beginning of 2030 and say with all these schools under the roof that we have already, we're making a hundred million dollars a school. We don't want to share that with anybody else, so we're just going to keep it at 18. That very well could be what it is. We don't know at this point what they're looking to do.

[00:16:36]And then if they do expand, are they going to be able to expand past 20 teams or is there going to be some kind of cap? There's nothing that's necessarily written about that right now as far as in some rule book, but you know, we never know until that actually happens cuz we haven't seen a conference that big since the Southern Conference in the 30s, the early 30s at that. So, we don't know what that is going to exactly look like as far as court challenges, what the NCAA is going to say, what the College Football Playoff is going to say. Like, that is all yet to be seen until they or if they actually do it.

[00:17:05]The other part of this is like, are they going to come after just ACC and Big 12 schools or are they going to go to like some SEC schools and make Godfather offers? A lot of the talk around a super conference is assuming that like the SEC and the Big Ten would merge, but these are two completely separate entities.

[00:17:23]What's to stop one of them from going and making great offers to one of the other schools? Like what's to say that the Big Ten media deal that is going to come up before the new SEC deal is like $50 $60 million than what the SEC is currently at. They go and offer a full share to a Texas. They go and offer a full share to a Georgia.

[00:17:45]I mean Texas is maybe more likely or an Oklahoma or or anybody in the conference and they say, "You know what? It's best for our school to go with the Big Ten."

[00:17:52]And that completely changes the way that things look because right now it's pretty even between the two conferences, but if you move one of the top schools from one to the other without replacing it with another top end school, which we're running out of in conference realignment talks, then it really changes the way that college sports and specifically college football looks going forward. So it's really hard to predict exactly what's going to happen.

[00:18:15]I'm just trying to read the tea leaves of what's happened before, but maybe that's not even the right way to predict what's going to happen next. But thanks for watching that video. Make sure that you like and subscribe and hype the video. It helps small content creators.

[00:18:25]I'm a small content creator and I could use all the help I can get. If you made it this far, leave a comment and let me know what you think. Which one of these teams is too high? Which one is too low?

[00:18:33]And who did I leave off the list that I should have put on? Leave that all in the comments below. I am on TikTok, so make sure that you check that out @bucky.bearx on TikTok if you're already on there or if you want to get on there.

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