Tom Lee - "You're Not READY for What's Coming for BTC & Crypto"

追加: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]We've written about private credit recently. I do think that there is going to be losses. And then with regard to the Fed, it's an unknown because um we've got a new Fed chair. He's got some very specific views about the sources of inflation that vary from existing Fed views and how to measure inflation also varies. So, I think it's going to be now a time where markets want to understand how the Fed will interpret incoming inflation data. And we know that looking at history, 11 of the 13 new Fed chairs have seen a drawdown of of at least 10% of the first year. So, that's why I think later this year we can have some turbulence. Markets are entering one of the most uncertain periods in years. And according to Tom Lee, many investors still may not fully understand the risks building beneath the surface. On paper, the US economy continues to look surprisingly resilient. Stocks remain near record highs. AI continues dominating headlines. And investors are still pouring capital into major technology companies. But underneath that strength, warning signs are beginning to emerge across multiple parts of the financial system all at once. Private credit markets are showing increasing stress. Software companies that once represented the future of growth investing are facing growing uncertainty from AI disruption and slowing demand. Oil markets remain dangerously tight despite investors largely ignoring the risks. And perhaps most importantly, Wall Street is now trying to price in an entirely new Federal Reserve leadership team with very different ideas about inflation, monetary policy, and how the economy should be managed.

[00:01:35]Historically, transitions to a new Fed chair have often brought volatility, uncertainty, and sharp market corrections. And Tom Lee believes this cycle may not be any different. What makes this environment so unusual is that markets appear caught between two completely opposing forces. On one side, the economy continues outperforming expectations despite geopolitical conflict, inflation concerns, and fears of recession. But, on the other side, many of the smartest investors in the world are quietly reducing exposure, trimming major positions, and preparing for turbulence later this year. That contradiction is becoming harder to ignore. And while much of the public remains focused on short-term price action, a much larger transformation may already be unfolding underneath the surface of global finance itself. In this video, we're going to break down Tom Lee's warnings about the economy, why he believes volatility could be approaching later this year, why institutional investors are becoming increasingly cautious, and how all of this may actually strengthen the long-term case for crypto and digitally native finance. We'll also connect these developments to the latest chaos surrounding Bitcoin, the Clarity Act, and why some analysts believe the biggest financial transition in decades may already be underway. If you enjoy deep macro and crypto analysis like this, make sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications so you never miss an update. Thanks, and enjoy the video. A lot of investors are surprised because the US is in the midst of a war that could be a long war, and oil prices are at record highs, and I think a lot of folks at the start of this year would said that this would have been enough to trigger a bear market or even a recession, but instead the S&P's at an all-time high, and the groups that led last year like AI and semis are the ones leading again. So, I think it's really speaks to me about the resilience of the US economy, and maybe the continued very weak conviction of most investors.

[00:03:46]I know you talked about, you know, S&P magic number 7,300, and we're there. Like, you know, what kind of led you to that call as you were thinking about it ahead of time?

[00:03:55]>> Well, in early December, we typically look at the year ahead and we write down what we think are the key drivers and kind of what the contours the market would look like. So, December 2025, as we were thinking about this year, we just thought this year would look a lot like 2025, which is a difficult year for markets, but ultimately very strong. And but in the middle of that, we penciled in the idea that the market would test a new Fed.

[00:04:27]And therefore, we would have a sort of start to the year that would be strong. 7300 was an aspirational number at the time cuz the S&P was in the 6000s.

[00:04:39]But then we think that there'd be a pause and then the setup would still be positive because we think there were some structural tailwinds and so we thought we'd end the year 2026 at 7700. So, the year is tracking the way we expected, although we're a bit above 7300 right now.

[00:04:58]But if someone asked me today, well, first of all, can the S&P make its way to 7800 first before it dries out? I think anything's possible, but I think what I am mindful of is that stocks were a lot cheaper at the end of March at the market lows.

[00:05:14]They're a lot less cheap now. So, a lot of good news is priced in and I still think that there is potential for turbulence in the middle of this year and with maybe more reasons for it. One being, of course, the market testing a new Fed. The second is I think it's still hard for me to reconcile that oil prices are not reflecting the acute shortage that's developing for petroleum products around the world. So, I think that there's going to be some reconciliation maybe later this year. All that matter and at different times the market's going to care about something else.

[00:05:47]We've written about private credit recently. I do think that there is going to be losses, and software has a little bit of uncertainty, but I think the underwriting is probably better than most people appreciate for some of the private credit firms. So, I think as a sort of as a our general view is I think private credit is a problem, but it's not systematic, and we've done a lot of work on the software stocks. I do think a lot of the bad news is priced in because on a relative price basis, you're back to 15-year lows. So, the entire software is eating the world thesis has been unwritten in just the last 6 months. So, I think a lot of positive reward now exists in software stocks. And then with regard to the Fed, it's an unknown because um we've got a new Fed chair. He's got some very specific views about the sources of inflation that vary from existing Fed views, and how to measure inflation also varies.

[00:06:43]So, I think it's going to be now a time where markets want to understand how the Fed will interpret incoming inflation data, and we know that looking at history, 11 of the 13 new Fed chairs have seen a drawdown of of at least 10% in the first year. So, that's why I think later this year we could have some turbulence.

[00:07:01]What makes Tom Lee's macro outlook so important is that he's not calling for an outright collapse of the economy. In fact, his broader argument is much more complicated than that. The US economy has proven far more resilient than many investors expected, even with geopolitical conflict, elevated energy prices, sticky inflation concerns, and growing uncertainty surrounding monetary policy.

[00:07:26]But resilience does not eliminate risk.

[00:07:28]Lee's warning is that markets may be underestimating how much uncertainty still exists beneath the surface, particularly with a new Federal Reserve leadership team stepping into one of the most difficult economic environments in years. And historically, periods like this often create sharp volatility before markets eventually find stability again.

[00:07:49]At the same time, that uncertainty may also be accelerating one of the biggest structural shifts in modern finance, the migration toward blockchain-based financial infrastructure.

[00:07:59]As confidence weakens in parts of the traditional system, institutions are increasingly looking toward faster settlement systems, tokenized assets, stablecoins, and digitally native financial networks capable of operating globally and continuously without the inefficiencies of legacy banking. That's why the next phase of Tom Lee's analysis becomes so important, because in his view, blockchain is no longer just a speculative technology story. It is becoming the foundation for an entirely new financial architecture that could eventually reshape banking itself.

[00:08:33]Crypto has underperformed expectations.

[00:08:37]If someone was to look at why crypto matters, today I think there's two stories that are really central to what blockchain does really well.

[00:08:46]One is, of course, instant settlement and the ability to sort of confirm transactions quickly, and that's why Wall Street is tokenizing on blockchain.

[00:08:57]And it's not even just a theory anymore.

[00:09:00]I was at Consensus, one of the big conferences last week in Miami.

[00:09:03]Actually, we spent the first part of that week at Milken.

[00:09:07]And actually, both at Milken and at Consensus, the corporates, the financial institutions were all talking about how tokenization is a big unlock for their business.

[00:09:18]Because not only does it allow trading to happen 24/7, it all starts to allow leverage or borrowing or monetizing non-traditional financial assets, whether it's like real estate or art, etc. So, it's a real thing.

[00:09:35]And the second, of course, is AI is going to start to need a neutral way to both prove identity and to start to create transactions and to carry wallets. In fact, that's why Elon Musk kind of famously said multiple times in the last 12 months, you know, in the future money is just mass and energy.

[00:09:54]Meaning the nature of money is essentially computing power.

[00:09:59]That basically it's all describing blockchains. And I think the reason it's becoming a boomer story is that the banks, who are the most powerful movers of money in the world, realize they can make a lot of money moving things on blockchains. So, they they are kind of descending into crypto.

[00:10:20]But at the same time, blockchain is enabling the creation of new financial institutions that will compete with banks. And I think we did a presentation at Consensus highlighting this very collision. JP Morgan makes 60 billion a year, the most profitable bank in the world with 300,000 employees.

[00:10:41]Jane Street is a firm that is newer, just moves money around, you know, trading with a lot of quant and compute.

[00:10:51]And this year is probably going to earn 40 billion dollars. They just reported 10 billion of profit in the first quarter with 3,000 employees.

[00:11:00]So, with 1/1000 the number of employees, they're almost as profitable as JP Morgan and they're making more money than the second, third, fourth largest banks in the world. So, they are more profitable than Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America.

[00:11:14]Tether, which is a crypto native, completely digital native bank selling a stable coin called Tether, is going to make 15 billion this year, which would rank it as the eighth most profitable bank in the world with 300 employees.

[00:11:30]So, I think that what's happening with blockchain is what happened with digital media where there were the traditional studios and then there was Netflix or with telecom where there was long distance local and then there was cellular and that the new entrants gained a lot of power relative to incumbency because of technological innovation and I think that's what's happening in crypto today. So, it makes sense that the boomers are descending on crypto but my guess is that in in 10 years, five of the 10 largest banks in the world will be digitally native companies. So, it's still very early days and I think there's a lot of opportunity but the base layer winner in the work we do is, you know, is Bitcoin is going to be arguably the most important blockchain because it's really good at storing value and then Ethereum because it's really the compute layer. And that brings us directly to what may become one of the defining financial stories of 2026, the collision between massive institutional adoption of crypto and rising instability across the traditional financial system.

[00:12:39]Over the past several weeks, the market has been flooded with contradictory signals. On one hand, one of the most important regulatory breakthroughs in crypto history appears to be rapidly moving toward reality. The chairman of the CFTC just publicly stated that the Clarity Act will become law, not might, not could, but will. If comprehensive crypto legislation finally becomes law it opens the door for banks, pension funds, institutional asset managers, and corporations to enter the blockchain economy at a scale the market has never seen before. And yet, despite what should theoretically be one of the most bullish moments in crypto history, Bitcoin sold off aggressively. Billions were wiped from the market within days.

[00:13:23]Leveraged traders were liquidated. Panic spread across social media as traders tried to understand why bullish regulatory news was immediately followed by heavy downside volatility. At the same time, reports have emerged that major exchanges were unloading significant amounts of Bitcoin ahead of the US market open while fears surrounding global trade tensions and geopolitical instability have added even more pressure to already fragile sentiment. To many investors, it feels completely irrational, but in reality, this kind of volatility often appears during major transition phases in financial markets. What's happening beneath the surface is likely bigger than short-term price action. The same week crypto received one of its strongest political endorsements ever, some of the most powerful investors in the world were simultaneously reducing exposure across traditional markets.

[00:14:14]Massive portfolio cuts from major hedge funds and institutional players suggest that smart money is becoming increasingly defensive about broader macro conditions. Concerns surrounding AI valuations, software stocks, private credit, energy markets, and Federal Reserve uncertainty are beginning to collide all at once. That aligns closely with Tom Lee's warning that while markets remain resilient, turbulence later this year is still very possible, especially as investors attempt to understand how a new Federal Reserve leadership team will react to inflation and slowing global growth. The biggest takeaway from all of this is that the crypto market is no longer operating in isolation. Bitcoin, stablecoins, tokenization, AI infrastructure, banking reform, monetary policy, and global capital flows are now deeply connected.

[00:15:05]The old financial system is trying to adapt while an entirely new system is simultaneously being built in front of our eyes. And whether markets move higher immediately or experience another major correction first, the direction of travel appears increasingly clear.

[00:15:20]Blockchain is becoming integrated into the core of global finance. The only remaining question is how quickly that transformation accelerates from here. If you enjoyed this analysis, make sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications for more deep dives into crypto, macroeconomics, and the future of global finance. And let me know your thoughts down in the comments. Do you think this market is preparing for another major breakout, or are we heading into a larger period of volatility first?

[00:15:50]Thanks for watching, and we'll see you in the next video.